Were Crabtree, Nicks, Roddy White and Reggie Wayne destined to be WR2s? They are "small" by your definition. If not, what separated them AT A COMPARABLE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT?
When I say "small" I'm talking about slot/speed/possession/underneath receivers, with "big" being more deep/jumpball/Redzone threats. Percy Harvin and Calvin Johnson have completely different jobs on sunday while both are considered wide receivers, so that's why I group the that way.
Reggie Wayne is a "small" receiver to me considering what he does best. While I could say having two of the best QB prospects ever throwing the ball to him helped Wayne's case, just like how I said Watkins situation will mean everything, I won't. I seen Wayne literally take over games singlehandedly and carry the passing attack when needed in recent years. He's great. I won't attempt to debate that. Pre-Luck he was a great 1a/1b WR playing with Manning to me so I bought in. Pair Watkins with a once in generation QB and I'll fight for him with you. Put him in Torrey Smith's shoes and I'll let you have him at his market value.
We'd have to look within the margins at the others. Nicks is a bit taller, has massive size hands, and has a better vert in comparison to Watkins. In their inaugural college season Nicks hauled in 54% of his teams TD passes while Watkins caught 30% of his teams while playing on a more pass happy offense. It's safe to say Nicks would fit into the "big" bucket much better than the "small" one. To use a football cliché, "it's a game of inches."
When you're 6"+ and 205+ I'll see how you fit in as a "big" WR, for the record, but another red-flag would lead to another downgrade like Torrey Smith's small hands. I've rejected the Roddy White comp as well. Even though they have virtually the same body type, lets look within the margins. White has a 40"+ vert compared to Watkins 34" vert. White also caught 50%+ of his teams TDs in his final season. I've said it before, with all things considered White grades out just fine as a "big" WR if that's wht you need him to do on Sunday. He showed he can get up and catch TDs at a "elite" rate in pads and in his undies, Watkins not so.
I don't know Crabs numbers off hand. He's not really one of "my guys." I'll check but I hop you get my drift.
Again, maybe the scouts look deeper than just grading all the WR prospects, or any position for that matter, strictly by height and weight. It would make scouting a lot easier, but than anybody capable of counting could do it. Stephen Hill is tall, can run like a deer and jump out of the stadium. But he can't catch and he can't play, so all his physical tools and athletic gifts come to nothing. There are big WRs that are good, bad and average, same with average size WRs and small WRs (Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, etc. being good examples in the latter category).
There aren't dozens of WRs like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. One option is to wait for years for the right opportunity to land one like them. Some teams may opt to not wait for years. If those teams agreed with you that later WRs were just as good, just because they are comparable height and weight, I'm sure they would do that. If they don't agree with that rationale, it is presumably because they see something in his skill set that separates him from WRs available later.
I said it pre-combine and I'll say it now, supply and demand. It's simple economics. There is a number of "small" WRs in this draft that will saturate the market. It's not that Watkins isn't a great prospect, it's that these other guys are too.
Watkins plays the ball in the air better and is much stronger after the catch, so those lacking attributes in Torrey Smith that cause him to be a sub-optimal WR1 aren't applicable to Watkins. All the above WRs drew top CBs at some point and did fine, not obvious why it would be different for him? You are comparing him to WRs he isn't like and leaving out WRs that he is like.
I agree Clowney, Donald (I am probably in the minority in thinking he belongs in the top 10 conversation) and the OTs are great prospects, I just think Watkins is, too. Watkins won't necessarily go before Clowney and both of the top LTs. If he does, maybe that team will grade Watkins comparably to some of the others on your list, and are in need of a WR more. If they have comparable grades, it wouldn't be a positonal reach. If he went to CLE, a possible destination as high as 1.4, he wouldn't have to be the WR1 opposite Gordon.
Compared to what we are hearing from scouts, Watkins is a legit top 5-10 candidate. Maybe you are right, but it is definitely a contrarian, outlier position. In recent years, Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin were picked in the top 10, all similar size or smaller than Watkins. If JAX had not taken Blackmon, STL would have (Fisher slammed his glasses down with the pick). If STL hadn't traded up for Austin, NYJ reportedly interested in taking him. Clearly, there are multiple teams in the NFL that don't think being 6'0"+ and 210 lbs. is a death blow to the chances of being a top 10 pick and a future WR1.
I can't say I disagree. But look at what you passed up for Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin, even just at WR. You could have had Nicks, Alshon and Allen just to name a few off the top of my head. Pass up Matthews and Evans and we could be saying the same thing about Watkins in 2-3 years if Watkins career trajectory is like Torrey Smith's (which isn't as bad as some make it seem, especially him as a Terrapin) while Evans and Matthews look like AJ and Julio in output.
If Watkins is *SMALL*, what is average? 6'5" 230-240 lbs? Calvin Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans?
Roughly 6'2 220 would be the avg of the #1 FF WRs. RotoViz has some stuff on that actually. They call it a "WR footprint" I think.
* I think we might be mixing up and jumbling together different subjects and conversations. Compared to the elite WRs, some might call Watkins "small" compared to Calvin Johnson. But you seemed to be referring to all WRs in the draft. By that measure and standard, calling him small seems an exaggeration. Do you really think 6'2"-6'3"+ and 215-220 lbs is the "average" size of an NFL WR?
No, it's above avg and therefor rare.
Not throwing eggs, any more than I think you are. If you disagree with what I'm saying, you don't pretend to agree just to go along. I'm no different. By putting different takes out there, others can decide if one makes more sense, or some kind of blend and middle ground best explains the evidence. I appreciate your role in the process everybody might benefit from in sharpening our collective thinking about these matters.
Not you at all. This is the reason I come back for more. My blade looks a little sharper. Stupid stuff like "have you seen him play" pisses me off when I probably watch as much/more FB as anyone. I just don't trust my eyes as much as some might. As if a whole short-essay worth of content and 2000+ post isn't enough to figure out if I'm any good at this or consistent with my thought process. I found the ignore feature last night so back to talking FB.
And FF is getting tougher and tougher by the year with all of the information available. You have to find a edge somewhere. Letting mainstream make your league mates believe Tavon Austin is the next Percy Harvin for FF is one. I don't trust their eyes either.