All this is not to hate on Watkins, obviously the guy is great. Some people need to pump the breaks on the hype, however.
Good post. It seems like I've been bashing him, but the hype is way ahead of who he's projected to be in the league. It's definitely inflating his value. He has the Tavon Austin hype while being a better WR prospect. He'll be a good pick for whoever takes him, because he can ball. Just from a supply and demand standpoint, it shouldn't be difficult to find a 6" WR who runs 4.4+ with no vert. That's been my point all along.
If scouts see it the same is you, he won't be a top 5-10 pick in the actual draft. Yet everything points to exactly that happening, so there seems to be a disconnect. Julio is 2" taller and 10 lbs. heavier, but he had some questions about concentration drops in college (and it still happened early in ATL, I think). He is a freakier athlete, but Watkins may be a more natural receiver.Among recent other top 5-10 pedigree WRs, Watkins is faster and more explosive than Crabtree and Blackmon. He is within 5 lbs. of Crabtree, virtually the same size as Blackmon and plays with a similar edge and physicality to Crabtree. For non-top 10 pedigree WRs, he is also virtually the same size as Nicks as noted upthread, and his physicality is also reminiscent of Bryant.
Just two years ago Nicks was a top 10 dynasty WR. Crabtree looked like a borderline Pro Bowler and an ascendant player once Kaepernick replaced Smith.
IF Watkins is a better Crabtree and Nicks at their best, some here may be underestimating him.
He was basically pro ready as a freshman with one of the best first seasons for a WR in collegiate history, and
after a down soph season, confirmed his status as the top WR in his class this season.
Not bashing the brake pumpers, but reducing Watkins to 6'0" and 4.4 is not in depth analysis. It would be equivalent to an art history entry on the Mona Lisa saying nothing more than - woman with enigmatic smile.
You mean when he was busy buying or selling weed and Adderall?Jk.. I don't believe I'm undervaluing Watkins. He will be good, possibly great. I just think he's destine to be a #2 WR in the NFL, along with a boatload of recievers in this class if they land in the right spot. Like Torrey Smith, I wouldn't want to see him being misused and pressed into WR1 duties if I owned him on my FF team. I'd rather he draw 2nd-3rd CBs and abuse them like Cruz did when Nicks was healthy.
You are right. If Tavon Austin went top 10, then Watkins tape and notoriety should land him near the same draft spot. He's much better than Austin and whoever takes him deserve credit for landing a good player. I'll just think they are insane for passing up potential franchise players like Clowney, Aaron Donald or one of the top OT ect... for a 6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol. There is a oversupply of good small-WRs in this class to pass on Watkins' at his price tag if you feel the need to draft one. I would go on and name a few of the reciever I have in mind, but I don't feel like everyone throwing eggs at me for disagreeing with the masses.
Were Crabtree, Nicks, Roddy White and Reggie Wayne destined to be WR2s? They are "small" by your definition. If not, what separated them AT A COMPARABLE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT?
Again, maybe the scouts look deeper than just grading all the WR prospects, or any position for that matter, strictly by height and weight. It would make scouting a lot easier, but than anybody capable of counting could do it. Stephen Hill is tall, can run like a deer and jump out of the stadium. But he can't catch and he can't play, so all his physical tools and athletic gifts come to nothing. There are big WRs that are good, bad and average, same with average size WRs and small WRs (Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, etc. being good examples in the latter category). There aren't dozens of WRs like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. One option is to wait for years for the right opportunity to land one like them. Some teams may opt to not wait for years. If those teams agreed with you that later WRs were just as good, just because they are comparable height and weight, I'm sure they would do that. If they don't agree with that rationale, it is presumably because they see something in his skill set that separates him from WRs available later.
Watkins plays the ball in the air better and is much stronger after the catch, so those lacking attributes in Torrey Smith that cause him to be a sub-optimal WR1 aren't applicable to Watkins. All the above WRs drew top CBs at some point and did fine, not obvious why it would be different for him? You are comparing him to WRs he isn't like and leaving out WRs that he is like.
I agree Clowney, Donald (I am probably in the minority in thinking he belongs in the top 10 conversation) and the OTs are great prospects, I just think Watkins is, too. Watkins won't necessarily go before Clowney and both of the top LTs. If he does, maybe that team will grade Watkins comparably to some of the others on your list, and are in need of a WR more. If they have comparable grades, it wouldn't be a positonal reach. If he went to CLE, a possible destination as high as 1.4, he wouldn't have to be the WR1 opposite Gordon.
Compared to what we are hearing from scouts, Watkins is a legit top 5-10 candidate. Maybe you are right, but it is definitely a contrarian, outlier position. In recent years, Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin were picked in the top 10, all similar size or smaller than Watkins. If JAX had not taken Blackmon, STL would have (Fisher slammed his glasses down with the pick). If STL hadn't traded up for Austin, NYJ reportedly interested in taking him. Clearly, there are multiple teams in the NFL that don't think being 6'0"+ and 210 lbs. is a death blow to the chances of being a top 10 pick and a future WR1.
If Watkins is *SMALL*, what is average? 6'5" 230-240 lbs? Calvin Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans?
* I think we might be mixing up and jumbling together different subjects and conversations. Compared to the elite WRs, some might call Watkins "small" compared to Calvin Johnson. But you seemed to be referring to all WRs in the draft. By that measure and standard, calling him small seems an exaggeration. Do you really think 6'2"-6'3"+ and 215-220 lbs is the "average" size of an NFL WR?
Not throwing eggs, any more than I think you are. If you disagree with what I'm saying, you don't pretend to agree just to go along. I'm no different. By putting different takes out there, others can decide if one makes more sense, or some kind of blend and middle ground best explains the evidence. I appreciate your role in the process everybody might benefit from in sharpening our collective thinking about these matters.