jurb26
Footballguy
We must have vastly different criteria for what a stud is.
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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
shader
Footballguy
People arguing for Gio being a stud are doing so on the basis of what their eyes have seen, and not his stats. He obviously hasn't become a consistent fantasy stud, I don't think anyone would argue that.
But in the open field, he looks like a stud. I think most people think that once Cincy figures out how to use him properly, he will be a fantasy stud. I also think he gets defensive attention that is normally reserved for other team's best players.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I think this is a great description and explanation. He looks like a stud, gets defensive attention like a stud but the stats equal good but not great.
jurb26
Footballguy
I don't think he looks like a stud or gets the defensive attention.
AJ Green gets the defensive attention.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Hmmm looking more likely that Hill is the guy this weekend. Anyone thinking Bernard could be out awhile?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I'm not saying he will be out a while, but i find it curious that no one on the Bengals (that I've seen) has said the injury isn't serious. Not that Marvin Lewis has a history of this, but it almost seems like he's being hush hush about it.
bostonfred
Footballguy
apparently. I also think Marshawn lynch is a stud, and he has 629 of the Seahawks 2452 yards this year, with 6 total tds - almost identical to gio. Of course this is a down year - lynch had 1575 of their 5424 last year, with 14 tds. But gio is on pace for 1425 and 11 tds, out of 5648 team yards, after two bad games where he's been dealing with a leg injury. That's not bad, compared to the guy who was the unquestioned center piece of the world Champs. I guess we do have different definitions of stud.jurb26 said:
jurb26
Footballguy
Compiling isn't the same as being effective or studly. Lynch hasn't had a YPA lower than 4.2 in 4 years. Gio hasn't had one better than 4.1 his entire, brief career. Lynch ranks as the #4 RB in DVOA, Gio #27. Last year Lynch ranked #17, Gio again #27. Gio has essentially been one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL the past 2 years when it comes to running the ball.
Jack White
Footballguy
A starter missing a Wed practice doesn't mean much at this point of the season.
If he doesn't practice Friday, then I'd be concerned.
Juzaba
Footballguy
Regardless of Gio's practice status, the most likely outcome is that Gio and Hill split carries 60:40 for the first few series, and by the second half, Cin is up by 20-10 or 20-6 and moving the ball well. If that's the case, we can expect Hill to take the job for the rest of the game.
There's certainly risk here - if Jax keeps this close and Gio feels good, we could see Hill put up 6 for 25 or whatever. But of all the handcuff types, I think Hill has the greatest chance of being startable for this particular bye-week hell.
There's certainly risk here - if Jax keeps this close and Gio feels good, we could see Hill put up 6 for 25 or whatever. But of all the handcuff types, I think Hill has the greatest chance of being startable for this particular bye-week hell.
jurb26
Footballguy
Agreed. Missing Wed mean almost nothing. Fri would be a much different story. What exactly is the injury anyway? All I see is it's a hip injury.
steveski
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Interesting up you omit the part if him being 4 this year. He also has ranked 3 and 9 in the past 4 years. So, 2 seasons in the top 5 and a season in the top 10 in the last 4 years. Gio, 27 in each of his 2. I guess there's no difference at all.
bostonfred
Footballguy
My point was that i don't think it's a very useful stat for ranking running backs. If you're comfortable using a start that says lynch was a below average nfl running back last year then feel free to use Dvoa to rank running backs. If not, then don't cherry pick when it's right and wrong. I think lynch was worthy of league mvp consideration last year and
he was a serious candidate until manning separated from the field. Like you said, though, maybe you and I just have vastly different criteria. Nothing wrong with that, and it probably explains a lot of our difference of opinion.
he was a serious candidate until manning separated from the field. Like you said, though, maybe you and I just have vastly different criteria. Nothing wrong with that, and it probably explains a lot of our difference of opinion.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
How did I cherry pick the stat? You cherry picked my post. I simply provided the numbers for each season they played in the NFL together. Lynch performs overwhelming better in that measure. You then removed the season in which Lynch was ranked 4. I didn't hide that he ranked 17. That would have been cherry picking. I then went further with the correlation, providing 2 more seasons of Lynch demonstrating extremely high results in this measure, because you attempted to twist the context. It's pretty simple. Lynch has show both on the field and via his production over the past 4 years he warrants a stud label. That doesn't mean every season he's going to be a stud or produce that way. Gio has not shown he is a stud on the field to date and his production and stats have not suggested it as well. This doesn't mean he never can. Hell, Lynch was pretty bad his first 2 years in the league and turned it around. You labeled Gio a stud, not me. You compared him to Lynch, not me.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Darryl Talley
Footballguy
Is AJ Green playing this week?
bostonfred
Footballguy
If Bernard is a close call but misses the game because of their short week, then Hill could be in line for a very substantial workload. Remember the preseason game when they fed him 20 carries (26 touches!)? They wanted to get him used to an NFL workload. This could be one of those games.
Still, temper expectations a little against the Jaguars, who are eleventh in the league allowing just 4.0 YPC, and haven't let up 100 yards rushing to a single running back all season. But if Bernard misses next week, too, then Hill would get the Browns, who are a bottom 3 run defense by almost every measure and gave up 127 yards and a TD to Denard Robinson two weeks ago and 85 total yards to McFadden (12 for 59 rushing) last week.
Still, temper expectations a little against the Jaguars, who are eleventh in the league allowing just 4.0 YPC, and haven't let up 100 yards rushing to a single running back all season. But if Bernard misses next week, too, then Hill would get the Browns, who are a bottom 3 run defense by almost every measure and gave up 127 yards and a TD to Denard Robinson two weeks ago and 85 total yards to McFadden (12 for 59 rushing) last week.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
but hill hasn't had a single game below 100 yds against the jags
OUR TIME TO STRIKE IS NOW!!!
mnmplayer
Footballguy
LT in his first 336 carries had an avg of 3.6 ypc. So I guess you would have written him off too. Gio has 279 carries a 4.1 a better average than LT at this stage in his career. Yea I know... don't bother saying so I think he's as good as LT, just saying your argument stinks cos it would have applied to LT, who most knew was a stud regardless of his low ypc.
jurb26
Footballguy
I very clearly did not write Gio off. I stated he could prove to have a similar turnaround like Lynch and validate he's a stud. I'm simply pointing out he hasn't done that yet.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
yeah, they're sittin' on tomlinson -- that's why they drafted hill
ok
ok
bostonfred
Footballguy
No. Definitely no.I think most people would consider me "anti-Hill", but I'm not - I think he's talented, I just don't like his situation behind Bernard.
The reasons you don't start Hill over other low end RB1s/ high end RB2s are:
1) Jacksonville really isn't that great a matchup. They're middle of the road or even a little worse.
2) Cinci isn't getting great push right now. Bernard's coming off back to back bad games, but Hill hasn't fared much better - 2 rushes for 1 yard, 8 for 22 and a TD, 4 for 15 and 10 for 25. That's about 2.6 yards per carry, although that's not a very fair sample size since Hill plays the big back role.
3) There's a lot of uncertainty for Hill. Gio and Hill combined to run the ball just 11 times against the Colts due to game flow, but 36 times against the Ravens even though it wasn't particularly successful with just 70 combined rushing yards.
I do think he can get 20+ carries, and I think the coaches may force feed him like they did in that preseason game. But the risk/reward still isn't high enough to move him into RB1 territory because we really don't know what he can do with those carries and he hasn't been lighting things up on his own. He's a decent RB2 option, and probably a good price for a daily play, but not someone you need to force into your lineup over other quality options imo.
bostonfred
Footballguy
You mean like Michael Turner? Or Darren Sproles?
cheese
Footballguy
Easy yes for this one week only.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
seeing as how turner was taken with the 154th pick, and sproles was drafted as a kick returner, no --- I don't mean anything like that at all.
nothing.
at.
all.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
Man, Bostonfred makes this thread rough to read.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Yes and its not a debate. How can anyone who knows the game think the starting RB who may get 20+ touches against Jacksonville is not a RB1?
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Whats telling to me is Green practiced but Bernard didnt. We know how AJ feels and he is able to practice, Bernard must be banged up more than is being led on if he cant.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Bengals are turrrrible for being tight lipped about injuries. Like, Belly-chick-ian levels.
If Marvin is saying hip pointer, it could be anything from normal fatigue that's no big deal to full blown gangrene and Gio's on point to have his leg removed next Tuesday.
If Marvin is saying hip pointer, it could be anything from normal fatigue that's no big deal to full blown gangrene and Gio's on point to have his leg removed next Tuesday.
bostonfred
Footballguy
"How can anyone who knows the game" is a bit harsh, considering I was trying to communicate useful information in the thread. I think I know the game, but maybe not as well as you. Let's run down a few points.First, starting RBs against Jacksonville this year haven't fared as well as you might think:
Week 1:
LeSean McCoy 74 rushing, 41 receiving, 0 TD
Darren Sproles 71 rushing, 14 receiving, 1 TD
Week 2:
Alfred Morris 85 rushing, 0 receiving, 2 TD
Week 3:
Trent Richardson 57 rushing, 23 receiving, 0 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw 65 rushing, 18 receiving, 1 TD
Week 4:
Donald Brown 19 rushing, 35 receiving, 0 TD
Brandon Oliver 23 rushing, 33 receiving, 0 TD
Week 5:
LeVeon Bell 82 rushing, 36 receiving, 0 TD
LeGarette Blount 29 rushing, 17 receiving, 0 TD
Week 6:
Bishop Sankey 61 rushing, 7 receiving, 0 TD
Week 7:
Ben Tate 36 rushing, -2 receiving, 0 TD
Isaiah Crowell 18 rushing, 5 receiving, 0 TD
Terrance West 8 rushing, 0 receiving, 0 TD
Week 8:
Lamar Miller 78 rushing, 21 receiving, 0 TD
Daniel Thomas 18 rushing, 12 receiving, 0 TD
Where are all these RB1 performance you'd expect to see? Not one of them got 100 rushing yards. Alfred Morris had 85 yards and 2 TDs, but he's the only one who really blew up against the Jags. Sproles had 85 total yards and a TD, and Bradshaw had 83 total yards and a TD, those were very good numbers. McCoy, LeVeon Bell and Lamar Miller had decent games, with 115, 118 and 99 total yards, respectively, but 100 total yards with no TD isn't really the upside you're hoping for. Even if you ignore all of the bad games above, that's a pace for 1500 total yards and 10 TDs. Bell, Bradshaw, and Miller are on pace to beat those numbers themselves.
Here's a list of backs I would consider ahead of Hill this week:
Arian Foster
DeMarco Murray
LeVeon Bell
Jamaal Charles
Marshawn Lynch
Ahmad Bradshaw
Mark Ingram
Andre Ellington
Ronnie Hillman
I hope we can agree that you wouldn't bench any of the above for Hill.
Lamar Miller
Brandon Oliver
Justin Forsett (if he plays)
Chris Ivory
LeSean McCoy
Alfred Morris
Personally, I wouldn't start him over any of these more established producers, either, but I can understand if you'd put him ahead of one or two of them.
Trent Richardson
Ben Tate
Shane Vereen
I'd put Hill in the same tier as these guys. That's somewhere between 10th and 19th, not counting Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte, who are on bye this week. The absolute highest I can see you putting him is 10th, and that's if you bench someone like LeSean McCoy for an unproven commodity based on match up. A more conservative approach would put him as a mid to low end RB2.
I absolutely stand by my comment that he's not a RB1 this week. And I am rooting for him to do well - I have high hopes for him as a potential daily league play. I just think this RB1 talk is very premature.
So serious question - are you seeing something that I'm not?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In a 12 team league, only 12 RBs get to be a RB1. Bostonfred has really stretched the limits with some of his arguments against Hill, but that wasn't an outlandish position to take. Jacksonville has been a slightly above average run defense.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
I agree with everything you have said....but man I have to tell you I am struggling with wanting to sit Ellington for him if he gets the start....Ellington has been somewhat of a disappointment IMO.. He is getting a lot of touches but not producing as I thought he would with those touches...But as usual if I sit him I'm sure this would be the week he goes off.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Most of those are RBBC other than Morris and Sankey and if Gio is out then Hill gets probably close to what Morris did and I'd gladly take that.
NREC34
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
I was kind of thinking that as well. Philly and Indy both basically torched them with their RBs but it was soread around.
Jack White
Footballguy
Follow
Mike ClayVerified account@MikeClayNFLFrom @mortreporthttps://twitter.com/mortreport on the 06010 - "[bengals] getting Peerman ready as a complimentary back to Jeremy Hill"
7:51 AM - 30 Oct 2014
Mike ClayVerified account@MikeClayNFLFrom @mortreporthttps://twitter.com/mortreport on the 06010 - "[bengals] getting Peerman ready as a complimentary back to Jeremy Hill"
7:51 AM - 30 Oct 2014
ForWhoForWhat
Footballguy
Missed Thursday as well.mnmplayer said:
Choo choo!
So glad I had the patience and didn't cut Hill loose.
Get Hill active
Cheesedawg
Footballguy
My understanding was he didn't even attend practice, which is unusual. Normally they are at least out there riding a bike even if they sit out the practice.mnmplayer said:
Juzaba
Footballguy
Minny's O-line is not playing well and the Redskins have done a decent job against the run this season. I think I might lean Hill over McKinnon, but it's close.NREC34 said:
And I agree with Bostonfred, Hill looks like about the 18th best RB going into the weekend here. In addition to those listed, you've got Bobby Rainey against the terrible Cleveland run defense and without Doug Martin, which frankly looks more appetizing than Hill's opportunity due to the matchup. Gore against St. Louis is also an option, though I'd probably go Hill over Gore.
Now, with so many RBs injured, on bye, and in suspect situations, whether Hill is the 12th or 20th RB probably doesn't matter. I'd imagine that most teams do not have difficult decisions here. I'm definitely excited to see what Hill can do with a full load.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
What about Wednesday and Thursday?Jack White said:
