ImTheScientist
Footballguy
You said he would be the #1 RB in fantasy football. What does that say about your fantasy football sKiLLz?ponchsox said:
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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
This is the new excuse when people draft average running backs too high. He must be playing hurt.
C. J. Anderson
Eddie Lacy
Jeremy Hill
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I truly believe that was the case for CJ. He looked awesome last week coming off the bye. He will be solid going forward. Hill and Lacy, no chance
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Lol Eddie has been hurt. CJ looked fine and so did every other Bronco. Hillman did pretty good too.
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For me it's not must be hurt. But just trying to figure out how a player can be so good one year and so bad the next.
RBM
Footballguy
It's either a huge mental issue or injury when a guy looks so drastically different one year from the next.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I'd say he looked powerful, but not elusive.
Maybe last year was an anomaly.
Maybe last year was an anomaly.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
probably be the last week he is my starting lineup. Ive seen enough
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I know, right? Lewis and Jackson's stupidity is killing the Bengals this year.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
I drank the juice and started Hill and Cincy D in a couple DFS contests. This sucked!
I dropped him after his 3 point outing in week 5 vs SEA because he was just too inconsistent and there were better rolls of the dice out to gamble. It was a little premature to bail on him at the time but it worked out as he's not performed even in an easy rush defense strength of schedule to go against vs CLE. I've seen enough to know that he sucks. Last year he was punishing people and this year it appears that all that abuse took a toll on him.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I bought him in dynasty at the beginning of the year and am holding him, I am hoping he has some injuries that they aren't listing. Like when Chris Johnson played one year with Tennessee on a torn meniscus or something.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Last night was the first bengals game I got to watch start to finish. some observations:
- His vision seems off, like he isn't hitting the right holes
- Is he way out of shape? Seemed gassed on a few short plays. Like he rode into camp off his break-out year and didn't do sh-t.
- He's not pounding like he should, he's big/strong AND quick in space, but he does this stutter step thing like he's 2012 Shady or something, doesn't work
- line isn't giving him much, which worsens the above note
- Gio seems to be getting the looks in more favorable situations, even then Gio didn't have a spectacular game last night.
Bottom line is, I think he needs a bulk of the reps to have legit fantasy value. With Gio there, that's just never going to happen. It's a bummer, but we've seen the talent, so for me he's a hold.
- His vision seems off, like he isn't hitting the right holes
- Is he way out of shape? Seemed gassed on a few short plays. Like he rode into camp off his break-out year and didn't do sh-t.
- He's not pounding like he should, he's big/strong AND quick in space, but he does this stutter step thing like he's 2012 Shady or something, doesn't work
- line isn't giving him much, which worsens the above note
- Gio seems to be getting the looks in more favorable situations, even then Gio didn't have a spectacular game last night.
Bottom line is, I think he needs a bulk of the reps to have legit fantasy value. With Gio there, that's just never going to happen. It's a bummer, but we've seen the talent, so for me he's a hold.
Shutout
Footballguy
Of course you're holding...what else you gonna do in dynasty? Can't get any more than pennies on the dollar in a trade. Can't cut him.
Even when he's had the bulk of reps he hasn't produced and more than 3 yards per carry. I don't know what the problem is. Maybe he still has the wheels but has a shoulder injury that he's protecting. Maybe he only barely had wheels last year and this year he's fatter. Don't know, don't care. Too many other situations to invest in at this point than to worry about this guy anymore. Just my strategy.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Shutout
Footballguy
I think what a LOT of people missed on Hill last year, due somewhat to the fact that they aren't a team that the majority of people actually sit down and watch start to finish each week is that he was a lot like DeMarco Murray was that year he stepped in half way into the season and got a nice roll of opponents.
He came in fresh last year and faced teams like Jax and he got a lot of highlights (like when he broke that huge long run against the Jags). But, to me, he looks exactly the same as he did last year. Gio always looks more decisive and quicker. Hill just doesn't look as fresh and things aren't going his way this year.
That's not to say he's bad, overrated, etc. Shady did the exact same thing. One year he was on a hot roll and luck was on his side. The next, he didn't look like he could get out of his own way.
We have to realize that he was an unknown last year, coming into the league once it was already nearly half-played before he had to put any wear and tear on himself. Teams have had an entire offseason to review how the Bengals use him. They know the tendencies and scenarios better and Hill is not as fresh this time around.
It's similar to OBJ. Sure, OBJ is still great but he's not ridiculously over the top like he was last year when, like Hill, he arrived late to the party fresh and with no tape on him.
Umm, what's not spectacular about 5.5ypc and 14 ypr? He only had 13 carries and one reception but he looked good.
Todem
Footballguy
There is a new fad and it's called RBBC. Supposedly it keeps your back fresh.
But IMO if you have a clear lead back......USE HIM. You play to win the game.
Then win the game and stop being cute when one back clearly is better than the other. When the other back is not going to put your offense in position for 2 and 5 3rd and 3 why to you continually split the carries?
Makes zero sense. Use your assets
Bell Cow backs are at a premium in FF. It's crazy IMO. Too many RBBC copy cat BS. Get back to basics. You have a lead back....run him till he can't run anymore. So many backs have had great careers 6-7 years or more being bell cows. Some don't. So next man up.
Just my 2 cents.
Draft guys able to tote the rock 20-25 times a game and catch the ball. If he can't catch then have a 3rd down back. And whatever happened to the great pass catching FB's? They were so valuable back in the day.
Lost art.
Obviously the Bengals will continue to do this. They are 8-0 and rolling. But Gio is clearly playing better football.
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cstu
Footballguy
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RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I sort of agree with you but don't lose sight that they combined for 120 yds on the ground. I would prefer more teams act like Minnesota, Pittsburgh and NYJ. Injuries are unavoidable but there is nothing better than ball control ground and pound.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Week 8 the Bengals had 67 offensive snaps
Bernard 34 offensive snaps 51% 13 rushing attempts 72 yards 5.5 ypc 1 target 14 yards
Hill 30 offensive snaps 45% 15 rushing attempts 52 yards 3.5 ypc 1 target 1 reception 0 yards
For the most part Hill and Bernard alternated series. In previous games when the Bengals got within 5 yards of the goal line they brought in Hill to try for the TD but not in this game. Bernard had a couple opportunities but didn't capitalize on it.
After 8 games
Bernard 270 offensive snaps 56.96% 91 rushing attempts 511 yards 5.6 ypc 2 TD 27 targets 21 receptions 155 yards 666 total yards 2TD 83.25 yards/game .25 TD/game
Hill 200 offensive snaps 42.19% 104 rushing attempts 344 yards 3.3 ypc 5 TD 6 targets 5 receptions 35 yards 1 TD 379 total yards 6 TD 47.4 yards/game .75 TD/game
In standard leagues Bernard has 78.6 points which is currently RB 17 In PPR leagues Bernard has 99.6 points which is currently RB 15
In standard leagues Hill has 75.9 points which is currently RB 18 In PPR leagues Hill has 76.9 points which is currently RB 25
Bernard 34 offensive snaps 51% 13 rushing attempts 72 yards 5.5 ypc 1 target 14 yards
Hill 30 offensive snaps 45% 15 rushing attempts 52 yards 3.5 ypc 1 target 1 reception 0 yards
For the most part Hill and Bernard alternated series. In previous games when the Bengals got within 5 yards of the goal line they brought in Hill to try for the TD but not in this game. Bernard had a couple opportunities but didn't capitalize on it.
After 8 games
Bernard 270 offensive snaps 56.96% 91 rushing attempts 511 yards 5.6 ypc 2 TD 27 targets 21 receptions 155 yards 666 total yards 2TD 83.25 yards/game .25 TD/game
Hill 200 offensive snaps 42.19% 104 rushing attempts 344 yards 3.3 ypc 5 TD 6 targets 5 receptions 35 yards 1 TD 379 total yards 6 TD 47.4 yards/game .75 TD/game
In standard leagues Bernard has 78.6 points which is currently RB 17 In PPR leagues Bernard has 99.6 points which is currently RB 15
In standard leagues Hill has 75.9 points which is currently RB 18 In PPR leagues Hill has 76.9 points which is currently RB 25
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah. It's working for The Bengals. But a lot of teams are forcing it IMO. When you have a clear #1......use him.
Do you really think that's the best NFL strategy, or are you just saying that as a frustrated fantasy owner?
Not trying to troll you. But the fact is, other than the Seahawks, very few SB-winning teams in the past decade have had that bellcow. The Pats, who I think most people would agree are one of the smartest teams when it comes to roster construction, have only had one during their entire run (Dillon). And the teams that have them (Vikes, Chargers with LT, Chiefs with Holmes/LJ) have been pretty mediocre.
I honestly wonder if it's a case where fantasy scoring was built around certain assumptions about the NFL, and those assumptions are no longer true.
The Bengals are 8-0. Isn't that what they've been doing?
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
The NFL has changed. FF has too.
When I first started playing fantasy the only thing that was scored was TD and FG and the same thing for a defense/special team you only got points if they scored a TD.
When fantasy first began to gain popularity was the mid to late 1980s around the time when Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith were drafted. This began an era of featured RB that lasted through the 1990s with players like Priest Holmes and Marshall Faulk dominating fantasy scoring.
Because of the feature RB being so dominant and drafts being so RB oriented more leagues began to use PPR scoring as a way to try balance things out between positions. Players like Faulk dominated even more in this scoring system.
Since then the NFL has been shifting more towards a RBBC approach and RB scoring compared to WR in non PPR is very balanced now due to that change.
What I did not know until 5 years or so ago is that the NFL prior to the mid eighties when I started paying attention to it, the NFL was largely a RBBC. Things go in cycles and the NFL has shifted more towards player specialization and therefore more situational use of players including the RB.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Fantasy GMs don't think like NFL OC's and HCs. They want their stats!
I think the Bengals have a larger plan going into the year. They'd like to limit Gio to +/-175 carries on the year, and another 50 catches. They very likely don't want to punish him more than that. Having a healthy Gio and Hill going into the playoffs is far more valuable to them than getting Gio his 100+ a TD each week.
I watched most of that game, and while I totally agree Gio looked better, I also thought Hill got met in the backfield far more often. The stats kind of bare that out too. 6 of Hill's 15 carries went for 1, 0 or -1 yards. Gio had 3 such carries. Take out those runs from both of their stat lines, and Hill was 9/49 while Gio was 9/57.
One thing to consider regarding the above. I think the coaches have likely been into Hill's ear telling him he's gotta run more North and South. So he's very likely focused on trying to stay between the tackles. When the oline gets beat immediately, he's already half mentally committed to staying between the tackles. I don't think they are preaching the same tune to Gio. Plus, Hill's just not as elusive as the smaller Gio.
Todem
Footballguy
Not a frustrated fantasy owner at all.
I just love watching great running backs dominate games. Old school.
Frustrated football fan. The game has changed a lot and not for the better from an entertainment value point of view.
I think it is sucking badly.
All players are starting to look the same and the gap difference between them seems to be closing. In the 80's and 90's I felt you had polarizing players that were must watch. Today I can count on my 5 fingers guys I would say...I have to watch this game to see this guy play football.
The game has changed dramatically IMO and not for the better.
And as far as past 10 SB winners....I beg to differ.
2005 - Corey Dillion (as you pointed out)
2006 - Willie Parker (bell cow for them)
2007 - Joseph Addai (bell cow for them)
2008 - Jacobs and Ward both ran for over 1000 yards as the Giants ran a ton
2009 - Mendanhall (was their bell cow)
2010 - RBBC clearly
2011 - RBBC clearly
2012 - Bradshaw was the bell cow that season clearly
2013 - Ray Rice off year and Pierce helped a lot but Rice was a bell cow for many seasons for them
2014 - Beast mode
2015 - RBBC
4 out of the last 10 years were clear cut RBBC's (one not by default but because of performance from Rice being poor) the rest had clear cut lead backs who rushed for over 1000 Yards and got 75% plus of the carries, and the Giants in 2008 had a dominant ground and pound with two backs going over the 1K mark.
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sandlotshrink
Footballguy
Whatever the reason(s) for his lack of production, I can't see myself starting him anytime soon. Kicking myself for believing the hype and putting him in over the likes of DMC.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
In a PPR is he a cut candidate? I have a hard time seeing him as a top 24 back in a PPR, and generally speaking, I think you should be able to find 35 or so WRs you would rather play on a weekly basis as a flex over him. With no catches, and no games over 63 yds, if he doesn't score, he is useless. If he isn't getting it done against the godawful Browns, when is it happening?
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Your history is a little off.
2006 Parker wasn't the bell cow, he came out on all short yardage and I am sure their carries would have been more evenly split if Bettis didn't miss 4 games.
I think you mean 2004 for Dillon, in 2005 he only had 700 yards rushing
Addai and Rhodes split that backfield pretty even especially in the playoffs.
Mendenhall was a rookie when the Steelers won the super bowl and played in 4 games before going on IR.
TropicalStorm
Footballguy
Honestly if you picked Jeremy Hill for a DFS slate you are a blithering imebcile - especially a cash game, but even gpp. I get the dudes that have him in season long, very few saw his decline into the POS that he is now. But why would anyone start him last night in DFS? Why? because afew dip#### "experts" and Huey the Whale Jacksonsaid his "arrow was pointing up?" Come on , be smarter. Yea the Cleveland defense has been pretty horrid but why would anyone start a guy who has sucked all year, is in a "hot-hand" backfield committee, is competing with a guy who is way more explosive and beter lately, plays under a coordinator who clearly does not fully believe in him, and who by all snap counts was slated to get 12-15 carries. At 6800 you could easily pivot to Deangelo (tough matchup but guaranteed 18 carries and 5+ receptions), DmcFadden (guaranteed 18-20 touches plus 2-4 receptions), go up a bit to Dougie Martin (guranteed over 18 touches plus 1-3 receptions), or hell even Lamar Miller (sure tough matchup on paper but likely will tote the rock all day and get 4-6 receptions). Hill was the classic example of a pump job by internet boobs. He was like a pump & dump pennystock. Nothing about his year should have been evidence to start him last night. I saw most of my cash game slates had Hill at 9-15% ownership, basically those people are cooked for the weekend with that slate. Stop buying into the interent lore, the gibberish, look at what the stats tell you, his game tape shows you. The POS has looked ######ed all year, slow, no burst, no spark, and he shares the backfield with a Porsche. bernard will get all the carries as we go forward and games get critical. Hill is bernard's pillow. Anyone that had Hill slated for anytype of game last night beyond 50-60 yards and MAYBE (although unlikely when you look at the beta-goal algorithms) a TD was just chasing internet gurus. Go with your instinct, you knew HILL sucks this year, you lost money on the Thrsday slate because you didnt trust yourselves. AJ Green was an even more moronic play in cash games as he is feast or famine. I had Dalton across the board once Manziel was starting, you knew the tempo would be fast and Dalton would have a precise strong game. I prosper.
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Jack White
Footballguy
^^
Might be the greatest post ever, but no one is going to read that massive block of text.
Might be the greatest post ever, but no one is going to read that massive block of text.
I think he was using the year their teams won the Super Bowl. A couple more facts:msudaisy26 said:
* 2005: Parker had 255 carries to Bettis' 110. The Steelers thought Parker was such a bell-cow they gave him 10 carries in the Super Bowl (Bettis had 14)
* 2006: As you pointed out, Addai and Rhodes split the work. Addai had 226 carries, Rhodes had 187
* 2007: Jacobs had 202 carries to Ward's 125 (and while Jacobs ran for 1,009 yards, Ward only had 600). Also, the whole joke of Jacobs' career is that everyone kept expecting him to finally ascend to RB1 status and he never made it.
* 2008: Steelers leading rusher was Parker again (210/755/5), followed by Mewelde Moore (140/588/5)
* 2011: Bradshaw and Jacobs both had less than 200 carries (or 700 yards). Giants became second team in a row (after Packers) to win the Super Bowl despite the worst rushing attack in the NFL
* 2012: That's actually the one counterexample. Rice was decent that year (257/1143/9, plus 61/478 receiving) and from a fantasy perspective, was clearly an RB1. Pierce only had 108/532/1.
Well, that's a far different argument than you were making earlier. It's not that RBBCs hurt team's chances to win, you just don't find it as aesthetically pleasing. You're essentially making the same argument as Brazilian soccer fans who feel like the national team's highest priority, even above winning, should be playing "o jogo bonito" ("the beautiful game"). Though it sounds like in your case you want to see NFL teams play "the ugly game".
That's a perfectly defensible position, but I'm guessing NFL owners are too busy rolling around Scrooge McDuck-style in piles of money to listen to your complaints.
TropicalStorm
Footballguy
Yes, I imagine when you see a bookstore, you stroke-out right on the city sidewalk.
I am a frustrated Hill owner as well! Stupid or not, I just traded Jarvis Landry for Gio (ppr league) as I am deep at WR (A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson, John Brown) and dangerously weak at RB (Hill, Mathews, Cobb, C. Johnson). In this way, if Hill wakes up I covered but I don't think this will be the case. As others mentioned, Hill does not look explosive or fast. All that dancing around and going nowhere is sad. I agree with others that Gio's turn is coming soon, at least I hope.
RBM
Footballguy
This is just completely inaccurate. Hill this year looks totally different than Hill last year. Has nothing to do with the opponent. NFL teams are not worn out in week 8 by the way.Shutout said:
Last year Hill was explosive, powerful, and MUCH more decisive. He is none of those this year.
Jack White
Footballguy
It's a well-known fact that massive blocks of text are difficult to read on a screen.
It's not hard to hit the ENTER key every once in a while.
It's an internet chat board, not an English paper.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I am at a point of conceding this is a lost season, fantasy-wise, for Hill. Now my remaining hope is that he shows some promise for next season.
thunderguns
Footballguy
From a dynasty perspective, have we seen anything to give us confidence he will bounce back later this year or next year?
jedimindtricks
Footballguy
no. Not totally uncommon for a player to have a sophomore slump. He's a hold on my dynasty team.
