Eric Ebron (PIT) at Bills
Ebron is rostered in 82 percent of leagues. If you have him, you’re likely starting him every week as the Steelers’ primary pass catching tight end. I get it. The following analysis is for those in 10 or 12-team leagues -- of tight end premium formats with multiple flex spots -- who might be torn on starting Ebron over another every-week option.
Last week in this space, I highlighted Jordan Reed’s sneaky fantastic matchup against Buffalo. Reed caught three balls for 32 yards and a score against the Bills in Week 13. Not the kind of volume we're hoping for, but it worked out OK. Reed and Ross Dwelley combined for five catches, 62 yards, and a touchdown. The Niners, as we suspected, attacked Buffalo’s defense via the tight end.
Tight ends are seeing 23.9 percent of targets against the Bills, the third highest rate in the league. Tight ends facing the Bills have averaged 8.25 targets and 6.1 receptions per game. That’s not awful. In fact, it’s pretty good. As I mentioned last week, it’s not just elite tight ends getting massive target volume against Buffalo. Seattle’s little used tight ends combined for 11 targets against the Bills; Chris Herndon had seven targets against them in Week 1; and Dan Arnold caught all five of his targets against Buffalo a few weeks back.
Ebron has quietly become one of the most reliable tight ends in fantasy as a key part of one of the league’s most pass heavy offenses. He has at least six targets in six of his past seven games, and 22 targets over his past two outings. He has a strong 16 percent target share on the season, and an 18 percent target share over the Steelers’ past four games. We can’t ask much more of a tight end not named Travis Kelce.
Ebron’s opportunity in a Pittsburgh offense that never stops throwing the ball is seen in his route running. Only five tight ends have run more pass routes this season. To exactly no one’s surprise, Ebron has run 401 routes to teammate Vance McDonald’s 122 routes. This week’s Bills-Steelers clash -- a potential shootout -- gives Ebron as much upside as any tight end in fantasy not catching passes from Patrick Mahomes.