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TE Eric Ebron, PIT (1 Viewer)

Ebron just seems like a lock to score every week at this point. Luck obviously trusts him down close. Sucks as a lions fan to watch us just drop him- wonder if we thought we were getting gronk before he mixed the deal. Happy he’s having a nice season

 
The Frankman said:
Going to post this here and the Jack DOyle thread:

Observations: Jack Doyle ran 21 routes on 49-of-56 offensive snaps (88%) Sunday, but it amounted to just three targets and 36 yards. Eric Ebron ran 12 routes on 21 snaps (38%), but it somehow led to three targets and two touchdowns. In the four games Doyle’s played, Ebron’s run 66 fewer routes (122 to 56) and seen 10 fewer targets (25 to 15) as the team’s backup tight end, but has somehow managed to score four more touchdowns than Doyle (5 to 1) in those outings. It’s obviously unsustainable production (though I said that last week and here we are).
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Doesn't seem sustainable, right? Yet here we are in Week 11 looking at Eric ####### Ebron tied with Antonio Brown for most TDs scored by a non-RB.

 
I had Doyle last week too.  I'll switch for Ebron, but now watch Doyle go off.  No reliable replacements for an injured Gronk has me guessing at scraps and chasing points.

 
I drafted Engram and Burton but have been playing Ebron since I picked him up after Doyle's injury. 

What would you all do with Engram and Burton? I think they're too good to just drop and no one will trade with me because I'm 9-1 and locked for playoffs. 

Picking between these three every week is going to be brutal with Doyle in the picture. 

 
ATB said:
I drafted Engram and Burton but have been playing Ebron since I picked him up after Doyle's injury. 

What would you all do with Engram and Burton? I think they're too good to just drop and no one will trade with me because I'm 9-1 and locked for playoffs. 

Picking between these three every week is going to be brutal with Doyle in the picture. 
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Think youve gotta just stick with it - decide between Burton/Ebron each week. Once it’s closer to playoff time you can drop whomever you need to -

Im in a similar boat with Reed/Doyle/Ebron. I’m just going to roll with Ebron until he stops catching TD’s. Non PPR of course.

 
Again, this was an expected outcome. Unsustainable production on limited routes... the second h doesn't convert on those it's a zero.

 
Eric Ebron is recovering from groin surgery.

GM Chris Ballard was light on details. There was no indication it is an issue that is expected to linger into training camp. Ebron picked up a few bumps and bruises during last year's sensational comeback campaign, but he was never listed with his groin. Ebron appeared in all 18 games the Colts played in 2018-19.

SOURCE: Mike Chappell on Twitter

May 14, 2019, 5:15 PM ET
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Eric Ebron (groin surgery) is running routes "full speed" in Colts minicamp.

In other words, he should be full-go for training camp. It's unclear when Ebron actually went under the knife. GM Chris Ballard reported the surgery early last month but was otherwise light on details. That doesn't seem to matter now.

SOURCE: Zak Keefer on Twitter

Jun 11, 2019, 4:25 PM ET
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Obvious downgrade, but I think his price point is really good right now. Scored him for $2 ($200 auction) but given how much others spent I feel like it's a steal. Jacoby is going to be checking down and who better to look for than Ebron. 

 
lod001 said:
Goodbye TDs. Luck was locked in on Ebron
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It is a bit early to declare a lack of TDs for Ebron (or Doyle) from Brissett.  Brissett did throw a TD to Ebron during the preseason. Luck was the starter last year, and Ebron and the coaching staff were all new additions to the team in 2018. Brissett will be guided by the same staff, and hopefully will have similar success as Luck.

 
simey said:
It is a bit early to declare a lack of TDs for Ebron (or Doyle) from Brissett.  Brissett did throw a TD to Ebron during the preseason. Luck was the starter last year, and Ebron and the coaching staff were all new additions to the team in 2018. Brissett will be guided by the same staff, and hopefully will have similar success as Luck.
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I don't think it's too early to cut the entire offense by 20-25%.  No matter how good of coaching Brissett gets, on his best day he's only 80% of Luck.  We are talking about a QB who was literally that once in a decade guy.

The team may be competitive and they may coach the #### out of Brissett to keep them afloat.  But Brissett is not a top-half QB talent, and I'm not sure he's a top-24 QB talent.

 
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tangfoot said:
I don't think it's too early to cut the entire offense by 20-25%.  No matter how good of coaching Brissett gets, on his best day he's only 80% of Luck.  We are talking about a QB who was literally that once in a decade guy.

The team may be competitive and they may coach the #### out of Brissett to keep them afloat.  But Brissett is not a top-half QB talent, and I'm not sure he's a top-24 QB talent.
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I don't expect Brissett to be on Luck's talent level. I also don't expect Ebron to get no touchdowns. There are a lot of pieces in place offensively for Brissett to successfully run the offense.

 
starks said:
Jacoby is going to be checking down and who better to look for than Ebron. 
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Jack Doyle did have 80/690/4 in 15 games with Brissett at qb in 2017.  So I wouldn't count out Doyle as potentially being Brissett's check down favorite.

 
Don Hutson said:
Doyle also far outsnapped Ebron in the games they played together last year.  In those 6 games, Doyle played 331 snaps and Ebron played 165 snaps.
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This was before Enron broke.out, now that they see what they have there’s no way that pattern will continue into this year. That data should be thrown out of the window!

Tex

 
BigTex said:
This was before Enron broke.out, now that they see what they have there’s no way that pattern will continue into this year. That data should be thrown out of the window!

Tex
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Before he broke out?  Shoot, Doyle came back from injury last year after missing something like six games (when Ebron broke out) and was immediately out snapping Ebron at a 2 to 1 clip.

Ebron may be in the top 10 of (now not quite as) overrated dynasty players.

 
SayWhat? said:
Before he broke out?  Shoot, Doyle came back from injury last year after missing something like six games (when Ebron broke out) and was immediately out snapping Ebron at a 2 to 1 clip.

Ebron may be in the top 10 of (now not quite as) overrated dynasty players.
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I understand that, I’m talking about this year. After the coaches have had an opportunity to reflect and look at film. I guess the Colts are concerned about Ebron’s blocking which is understandable but bringing up data from only one year after the year the Ebron had? You can’t expect that pace to continue throughout the entire year of 2019.

Tex

 
BigTex said:
I understand that, I’m talking about this year. After the coaches have had an opportunity to reflect and look at film. I guess the Colts are concerned about Ebron’s blocking which is understandable but bringing up data from only one year after the year the Ebron had? You can’t expect that pace to continue throughout the entire year of 2019.

Tex
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If you’re talking about Ebron’s TD rate, I agree.   :P

If you’re talking about snap count, my God I’d hope the Colts knew what they had in their TE’s three months into last season. 

 
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Next Gen Stats:

Eric Ebron set career highs in receptions, yards and receiving TD last season in Indy, and played multiple positions in the @Colts offense.

@Ebron85 was the only player in the NFL with 3+ receiving TD when aligned tight, in the slot, and out wide.

Powered by @awscloud

Tex

 
One possibility of why Ebron was outsnapped by Doyle even midseason is because of Ebron's injuries.  Ebron was the walking wounded last year.  He was listed as having shoulder, shin, ankle, knee, quad, and back injuries.  And then he had offseason groin surgery.  Having Doyle healthy for weeks 8-11 gave them the luxury of limiting Ebron's snaps. 

The Colts might be planning on playing a lot of 2 tight end sets this coming season.  In the first game of last year, Doyle played 93.9% of snaps and Ebron played 45.1% of snaps.  Combined that's 139%.  And that was before they knew how effective Ebron was going to be.  The plan could be for both to play at least 70% of snaps.

 
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Don Hutson said:
One possibility of why Ebron was outsnapped by Doyle even midseason is because of Ebron's injuries.  Ebron was the walking wounded last year.  He was listed as having shoulder, shin, ankle, knee, quad, and back injuries.  And then he had offseason groin surgery.  Having Doyle for healthy for weeks 8-11 gave them the luxury of limiting Ebron's snaps.  The Colts might be planning on playing a lot of 2 tight end sets this coming season.  In the first game of last year, Doyle played 93.9% of snaps and Ebron played 45.1% of snaps.  And that was before they knew how effective Ebron was going to be.
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Great post! 👍🏾 

Tex

 
I wound up getting him for $3...a little unsuspectingly.

But Ebron seems to be one of those guys where people only remember the disappointment from his Lions days and not the fact that he was still a Top 10 pick/talent and maybe it took awhile for the light to come on.

 
Skeletore Eh said:
Is ebron even rosterable at this point?
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People are rostering starting TEs on even less potent offenses (Waller, Walker, Eifert...) so hard tomimagine why he wouldn’t be.

Plus, he was a primary target of Brissett the last time Brissett had to start.  Chemistry doesn’t generally go away.

 
Skeletore Eh said:
Is ebron even rosterable at this point?
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A lot of people seem to feel the same as you. As the NFL’s most obvious regression candidate, Ebron is on just about everyone’s Overrated and Do Not Draft list coming into this season.

Because Ebron is so commonly avoided, I actually think he’s reached value pick status in many leagues. Yes his fantasy points per snap is unsustainable and yes his team’s offensive output is going to shrink and yes his hands are shaky. But Ebron has value. He’s big and fast and fluid and his route running has improved, he got open a lot last season. To get a an ascending player with his athleticism so late in your draft is a great value proposition. And he should be a relatively easy player to own. Monitor his snaps for the first few weeks. If he’s stuck down in the 20 snap zone then you probably need to cut him. But his game is growing so his snaps may grow too. If his snap count is closer to 40 he is very startable and may even be a fantasy difference maker.

One other small point to consider in dynasty. It’s rare to find a player with Ebron’s 2018 productivity who is considered so toxic. Everyone thinks he sucks and that last year was a fluke. In the event that Ebron has a strong 2019, people will look at the crazy 2018 stats differently and his value gets a free boost. This is another factor that makes him an attractive late round gamble

 
Is Eric Ebron really heading to a regression or is it possible that his large frame, abnormally long arms and soft hands actually were the reason he was scoring at such an abnormal rate?

I am saying the latter.  I don't think he is heading for a regression, ESPECIALLY with Jacoby Brisset at QB.  I think people are not registering how Brisset's presence will change the way the offense plays.  He played under Urban Meyer and then BB in NE.  He has been in essentially the same offense for years.  This offense.  

Don't surprised to see this team grind and rely on the defense and special teams.  And grinding first downs and TDs should play to Ebron's strengths.  Remember that Doyle was forced into becoming a "receiver" the year he went to the pro bowl due to injuries at WR.  The offense highlights TEs, but that was an unusual circumstance.

I am looking for Ebron to have a similar year as last year in this offense.  Call me crazy.   

 
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Skeletore Eh said:
12 team redraft with 15-16 roster spots

he scored 13 tds last year on an andrew luck offense with no jack doyle in the picture
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I consider FBG projections to be near his bottom and that puts him at TE16...I think he makes a good security blanket for a young QB and he will push those numbers...

 
killface said:
seriously the guy has notoriously terrible hands
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tangfoot said:
Did he get a hand transplant in the offseason?
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I hear you.  In Detroit it was like he had rocks for hands. 

But look at the film on him from LAST year.  IMO He used his body, especially his length, to his best advantage.  And there may be a reason for that; the offensive scheme emphasizes the TE position in the passing game.  The scheme helps him to use his frame at the sidelines.   

On the other hand, name one TE that has done well in Detroit.  How long have they been rolling through TEs?  Name one TE that has thrived consistently under Stafford.  Just saying, which came first, the chicken or the egg.  Correct me if I am wrong, but Ebron was not terrible catching the ball at North Carolina. 

 
Hairy Snowman said:
I hear you.  In Detroit it was like he had rocks for hands. 

But look at the film on him from LAST year.  IMO He used his body, especially his length, to his best advantage.  And there may be a reason for that; the offensive scheme emphasizes the TE position in the passing game.  The scheme helps him to use his frame at the sidelines.   

On the other hand, name one TE that has done well in Detroit.  How long have they been rolling through TEs?  Name one TE that has thrived consistently under Stafford.  Just saying, which came first, the chicken or the egg.  Correct me if I am wrong, but Ebron was not terrible catching the ball at North Carolina. 
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he was tied for 3rd in the league with 9 drops last year

 
Hairy Snowman said:
Is Eric Ebron really heading to a regression or is it possible that his large frame, abnormally long arms and soft hands actually were the reason he was scoring at such an abnormal rate?

I am saying the latter.  I don't think he is heading for a regression, ESPECIALLY with Jacoby Brisset at QB.  I think people are not registering how Brisset's presence will change the way the offense plays.  He played under Urban Meyer and then BB in NE.  He has been in essentially the same offense for years.  This offense.  

Don't surprised to see this team grind and rely on the defense and special teams.  And grinding first downs and TDs should play to Ebron's strengths.  Remember that Doyle was forced into becoming a "receiver" the year he went to the pro bowl due to injuries at WR.  The offense highlights TEs, but that was an unusual circumstance.

I am looking for Ebron to have a similar year as last year in this offense.  Call me crazy.   
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Nope

 
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