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WR Mike Evans, TB (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Xue
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Good poin on both. They should both grow leaps and bounds in the next couple years.
Inwill absolutely be targeting Winston as a mid-round bargain QB - best upside for the draft pick of just about any QB. I suspect Carr will go earlier which could be a mistake.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He's another QB i loooooove in the 6-9 rounds if he somehow avoids getting overly hyped. Good young receivers who are going to get better as well on that team, and Murray might start to break down a little (heavy usage over the years) leading to more passing.
My gut feeling is that guy's like Roethlisburger and Rivers will still be ranked higher...Ryan will probably be taken way too early based on this year, Brees obviously will be a top QB, as will Brady, and Eli could even go higher. Wilson too, depending on how he finishes the season. Dak is going to get a lot of love too since the Coylwboys are winning but I don't tbink he's ideal for FFB so long as Zeke is pounding the rock.
I do think that both Mariotta & Winston will be hyped as "young QB on the rise" but I just can't imagine they'll be ranked higher than the ones I just listed.
I like Tyrod Taylor a lot next year too, assuming a healthy Sammy Watkins.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
What can I say - I'm a dreamer. Kid's a $10 talent with a $0.10 paw.
It's a little ironic that in the Watkins topic someone painted me as a "hater" and here I'm somehow the optimist.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Killing me here... ?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Cost me the playoffs. Him, Brees, Snead - bums, the lot of em.
jtd13
Footballguy
Same. Missed a bye because those 2 laid an egg last week. I figured "at least they are due for week 14!". Guess not.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And M.Thomas, the only reason Snead was in.Same. Missed a bye because those 2 laid an egg last week. I figured "at least they are due for week 14!". Guess not.
and DJohnson failed me today too.
Just an everything all at once suckfest, really.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
121 total yards, 5 catches and a 2-point catch is failing you? Good grief.And M.Thomas, the only reason Snead was in.
and DJohnson failed me today too.
Just an everything all at once suckfest, really.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, for him that's a crap day.
He's left me with high expectations based on his track record this year combined with facing the worst run defense in the game.
I'm not putting him down - he's a beast; I will happily draft him 1.01 next year.
but I needed more from him today. 0 TDs was a killer. No 100+ RU or Re, 17 points. RB2 numbers were definitely below expectations.
And I hate missing the playoffs so I'm griping. It is what it is.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
He has the 9th most points from RBs this week.
You can't expect absurdly ridiculous numbers every week.
Perspective.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Again - I misssed the playoffs. I'll have time for perspective tomorrow. For now I have borderline irrational bitterness over a 17 point game.
Anyway it was mostly Brees that killed me regardless, taking Ingram and Snead with him.
And Mike Evans could certainly have had a better game against the league's worst pass defense, to come full circle for this topic.
Ah well - there's always 2017
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Yep, disappointing day for Evans. Their defense playing much better is making them more conservative on offense, and that is bringing Evans down.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The sample size is small (3 games) but Evans has never cleared 54 yards vs. NO.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Where they all vs Breaux? Seemed the safety was cheating to his side a lot today too
Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
packersfan
Footballguy
I'm concerned. Since the Haywood INT last week Winston seems like he's gotten gunshy with Evans and the two have lost their mojo. He had Evans for two possible TDs yesterday and threw two really poor passes to him. Then on the Bucs' final Red Zone play, Evans was singled up with a smaller CB and Winston never even looked at him. The TV announcers were practically screaming at Winston to throw it to Evans since it was so obvious Evans had the advantage but Winston never even looked his way. Instead, he threw into coverage in the end zone. Pass was incomplete and the Bucs had to kick a FG instead. Another poor decision and wasted opportunity.
Evans is clearly a great player and you're obviously still starting him but I'm not gonna lie, the last two weeks have me spooked right now. Every player can go through slumps. I understand that and Evans could obviously snap out of his at any time and maybe it happens next Sunday night against Dallas. I sure hope it does. But the last two weeks have been enormous kicks in the nads.
Evans is clearly a great player and you're obviously still starting him but I'm not gonna lie, the last two weeks have me spooked right now. Every player can go through slumps. I understand that and Evans could obviously snap out of his at any time and maybe it happens next Sunday night against Dallas. I sure hope it does. But the last two weeks have been enormous kicks in the nads.
packersfan
Footballguy
Defenses focuses on great No. 1 WRs. That's what defenses do. That shouldn't prevent offenses from finding ways to get great No. 1 WRs the ball. You don't see Antonio Brown consistently putting up 40 receiving yards a game, for example. I'm not saying Evans is doomed to get 40 yards a game forever. That obviously isn't going to happen. But it frustrates me when people say things like "Defenses are focusing on him now." Of course they are. Haven't they been doing that all season, though? Who else would they have been focusing on with this passing game?
And if defenses start doing different things it's up to Koetter and Winston to adjust to that and figure out new ways to get Evans the ball. I know they're winning but they barely won yesterday on a day when Brees was absolutely terrible and Tampa's D was outstanding. Yet the Bucs barely won and I'd argue a lot of that was due to the offense not finding better ways to get the ball to their No. 1 playmaker in a game he could have easily dominated. Am I a little pissed as an Evans owner in fantasy? Yeah I'll cop to that but if the Bucs want to be a consistently good team they need to find ways to win by maximizing their best players to the best of their abilities. There is no way Koetter can honestly say they did that with Mike Evans yesterday. If he says that he's a liar.
And if defenses start doing different things it's up to Koetter and Winston to adjust to that and figure out new ways to get Evans the ball. I know they're winning but they barely won yesterday on a day when Brees was absolutely terrible and Tampa's D was outstanding. Yet the Bucs barely won and I'd argue a lot of that was due to the offense not finding better ways to get the ball to their No. 1 playmaker in a game he could have easily dominated. Am I a little pissed as an Evans owner in fantasy? Yeah I'll cop to that but if the Bucs want to be a consistently good team they need to find ways to win by maximizing their best players to the best of their abilities. There is no way Koetter can honestly say they did that with Mike Evans yesterday. If he says that he's a liar.
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packer_junkie
Footballguy
I remember early in year they were keying like crazy over the top so they just put him in the slot and worked him like Reed for 8-12 yard gains up and down the field. Hope this comes back.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Food for thought. Had him as my WR2 in my main redraft last year and was very happy with him, don't recall him being that poor in the second half of the season at all. Have vague recollections of him going off the boil a bit but still having good games. Guess not. Good read.
jtd13
Footballguy
Yeah, I am expecting a pretty significant drop-off in targets. That said, the TB offense should be more efficient as a whole with the new additions. Last year the WRs, TEs, and RBs consisted of Evans, and no one else that should be starting in the NFL for most of the year. With additions of DJax, Howard, a sober Martin, and Winston hopefully improving in his 3rd year, he should have the chance to do more with his targets than last year to offset the drop in targets some.
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ZWK
Footballguy
I'm not sure what to make of those week by week numbers. Looking instead at the 16-game pace (and comparing his ppr ppg with other receivers' 2016 season stats), here are Evans's stats for various time periods:
2016 season: 96/1321/12 on 171 targets (finished as the #3 WR in ppg in 2016)
First half of 2016: 110/1490/16 on 202 targets (on pace to be the #1 WR in 2016)
Second half of 2016: 82/1152/8 on 140 targets (on pace to be the #12 WR in 2016)
Career: 85/1273/9.6 on 156 targets (on pace to be the #8 WR in 2016)
So there was a dropoff, but he was still a borderline WR1.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's kind of the rub here. Evans is valued, at the least, as a top 5 receiver in dynasty. Maybe being a borderline wr1 is okay with him being young and a relatively safe pick but if he's scoring around wr12, maybe it makes sense to trade him for someone like cooper or thomas plus whatever you can get? I'd have a real hard time doing so but it's worth considering? Or maybe just not drafting him top 5.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He won't be as bad as Hopkins was. I just see some similarities to his season splits much like Nuk had in 2015.
need2know
Footballguy
I would drop him a bit too. More weapons and they will be better running the ball this year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah my response was a bit tongue in cheek. I can see him maybe disappointing owners that use a first round pick on him a bit, but it's hard to imagine he'll be a total bust like Hopkins was. The Bucs added weapons but Jackson is mostly a one trick pony and rookie TEs do not dominate targets right away, so Evans should be at worst a solid WR2.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'll buy that line of thinking here.
I don't like the comparison but if anything evans could be this year's AR15. and that's if Winston implodes. Which I don't think happens.
need2know
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yeah, as bad as it was, AR15 was still a wr2 in my leagues. Very disappointing for sure, but I think that's worst case with evans.
Pwingles
Footballguy
He will be barely effected. If anything his targets will be better quality. The focus on the amount of total targets last year, and his anticipated reduction in total targets this year will likely not be that big of a deal, IMO. He may very well lose targets overall, but how many targets will he get this year that he isnt double teamed, and Jameis isnt as rushed and can make better throws? He had 173 targets last season, and only a 55.5% catch rate. Year one, he had 55.7, last year 50.0. He had 7 drops last year, 11 the year before, and 4 his rookie year.
That says to me, that a lot of the ~50 % of balls he isnt catching are being heavily contested or are just not catchable. More weapons should absolutely make him and Jameis more efficient. Maybe its on 160 or less targets, but if the passes are better, pocket is cleaner, and the defense is being kept honest , I dont see much regression in the end of the season stats for catches, yds, tds etc
That says to me, that a lot of the ~50 % of balls he isnt catching are being heavily contested or are just not catchable. More weapons should absolutely make him and Jameis more efficient. Maybe its on 160 or less targets, but if the passes are better, pocket is cleaner, and the defense is being kept honest , I dont see much regression in the end of the season stats for catches, yds, tds etc
need2know
Footballguy
You might be right. I recall alot of three and outs and crappy offense from the bucs last year. If they are more efficient, that would certainly only help evans
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The improvement of their defense doesn't help either, since they are less likely to be in shootouts and playing from way behind a lot.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Evans' targets and receptions may go down, but the quality of them should increase immensely with the additional space he's likely to have.
Yards per catch and TD's are likely to go up.
Yards per catch and TD's are likely to go up.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think the AR15 comparison works. Robinson got just just as many targets in 16 as 15. He just caught less passes for less yards and less TDs. He went from wildly efficient to wildly inefficient. The lesson to learn from him is that averaging 17 yards per catch and 0.875 TDs per game is not sustainable and bound for regression. The lesson with Hopkins is in recognizing when teams shift their offensive approach. Around the week 9 bye, Houston's D shifted from being one of the league's worst to one of the league's best. This shift allowed the Texans to throw less. Less throws meant that Hopkins saw significantly less targets. The trend of improved D carried over into 2016. Hopkins was certain to score less in 2016 just due to a decrease in targets. He ended up being a complete disaster because Brock was awful. There is no way Winston ever plays near as bad as Brock so Evans has a very good floor, but I think he is getting overdrafted a bit in redraft by a half a round or so.
first 8 games
Texans points allowed: 26.75 Average pass attempts per game: 45.2 Hopkins targets per game: 14
last 8 games
Texans points allowed: 13.5 Average pass attempts per game: 31.8 Hopkins targets per game: 11.3
2016
Texans points allowed: 20.5 Average pass attempts per game: 36 Hopkins targets per game: 9.4
Hopkins lost 1.9 yards per target and his TDs per target number was halved. That is your Osweiler effect. However, if his efficiency had stayed where it was in 2015, he would have only been about a 1200 yard and 8 TD guy.
Now lets look at Mike Evans
first 8 games
Bucs points allowed: 29 Average pass attempts per game: 39.75 Evans targets per game: 12.6
last 8 games
Bucs points allowed: 15.8 Average pass attempts per game: 32.6 Evans targets per game: 8.75
2017
Bucs points allowed: ??? Average pass attempts per game: ??? Evans targets per game: ???
My concern with Evans would be that 140 targets is more likely than then 170-190 that he needs to justify a first round pick.
first 8 games
Texans points allowed: 26.75 Average pass attempts per game: 45.2 Hopkins targets per game: 14
last 8 games
Texans points allowed: 13.5 Average pass attempts per game: 31.8 Hopkins targets per game: 11.3
2016
Texans points allowed: 20.5 Average pass attempts per game: 36 Hopkins targets per game: 9.4
Hopkins lost 1.9 yards per target and his TDs per target number was halved. That is your Osweiler effect. However, if his efficiency had stayed where it was in 2015, he would have only been about a 1200 yard and 8 TD guy.
Now lets look at Mike Evans
first 8 games
Bucs points allowed: 29 Average pass attempts per game: 39.75 Evans targets per game: 12.6
last 8 games
Bucs points allowed: 15.8 Average pass attempts per game: 32.6 Evans targets per game: 8.75
2017
Bucs points allowed: ??? Average pass attempts per game: ??? Evans targets per game: ???
My concern with Evans would be that 140 targets is more likely than then 170-190 that he needs to justify a first round pick.
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I might trade him for OBJ in dyno, redraft is a different story.
