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Derek Carr...Lost in the shuffle? Big 4?

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There's rumors in AZ that the Cards like him with their first round pick.

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There is no way if Matthews is there, they pass on him-nor will Fisher with their second pick, and I guarantee Munchak has told the Steelers about his love for their family.

If Carr falls to the second, or the Titans trading up into a later first...then I could see it.

They like Carr and met with him a few times-as often as a team is allowed to. McCarron missed a meeting because he was sick and they didn't reschedule. I'd guess interested and not interested from that.

The Titans met with 4-5 other QBs and have a few QBs they'll meet with still.

They lost Fitzpatrick and didn't re-sign Rusty Smith. (I'm not a Rusty fan) In late December they cut John Skelton and signed Tyler Wilson off the Raiders PS as a developmental project.

Wilson seems fine for a 3rd stringer.

Whitehurst led a players only camp so obviously Whisenhunt likes him more than most on these boards.

I'd rather a quality veteran backup to Jake than a rookie or Whitehurst, but it seems they're drafting a rookie QB.

IMO reading into quotes and making guesses-they like Wilson and Whitehurst as the 2 and 3 guy and would trade Locker during the draft if they can. Locker isn't going to fetch a Carr level pick so I don't see this working either.

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i can't see drafting a guy in the first round that needs to sit for 1-2 years. (yes i realize that's what the Packers did with Rodgers, but that's pretty rare these days)

i could see early second round.

i am intrigued by his film, he definitely has potential.

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There are some who will argue that it is worthless to ever cite college statistics when making the case for a draft prospect, these stats being often a function of things far outside the control of the individual in question, including level of competition, scheme, etc.,

There is truth to this. But it’s also true that not all stats are created equal. Summarily dismissing all statistical evidence is equally as foolish as mindlessly citing “impressive” statistics without giving context.

In other words, sometimes you stumble across a statistic so compelling, you can’t ignore it. Even if you recognize the peril inherent in throwing out a particular stat without being able to fully contextualize it.

Sometimes your gut tells you, “Woah. That matters.”

That happened to me just a minute ago when I stumbled upon this Rotoworld blurb about Derek Carr:

ESPN Stats & Information reports that Fresno State’s Derek Carr completed only 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress in 2013. This number is terrifying for a few reasons. First off, it’s the lowest duress rate of any top quarterback prospect. Second, NFL QBs completed 41.5 percent of passes when under duress last year. Only three NFL QBS had a duress percentage lower than Carr’s collegiate rate. We don’t need to explain the difference between NFL edge rushers and those found in the Mountain West Conference.

That sounds…bad.

All the arm talent in the world won’t help a guy if he’s pooping his pants every time the pocket starts collapsing.

By no means does this one stat close the case on Derek Carr, but I do think it provides pretty compelling evidence that Carr has an issue with poise in the pocket. And that certainly should be an issue for any team evaluating him as a draft pick.

Again, one has to go to the tape to find out what this really means. But it does give you something specific to look at, if you were inclined to re-watch some Derek Carr games.

http://thevikingage.com/2014/04/30/vikings-draft-statistical-proof-derek-carr-horrible-pressure/

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That completion rate under duress does sound damning. But before I put too much stock in it, I'd like a little more info. How was Fresno St's line in pass blocking? What was the offensive scheming (did he have to stand and wait longer for downfield patterns to develop)? What was his INT rate under duress compared to other QBs? What was his sack rate compared to other QBs?

Not trying to make excuses, please don't misread me here. But if you've got a guy who has a poor pass blocking line or has to stand in while patterns develop, and he's throwing INCs instead of INTs and taking sacks, that number could be very misleading.

And I'll admit that I don't know the answers to most of those questions, so that stat could very well be that Carr does in fact "poop his pants" :lol: under pressure.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Rotoworld:

ESPN Stats & Information reports that Fresno State's Derek Carr completed only 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress in 2013.

This number is terrifying for a few reasons. First off, it's the lowest duress rate of any top quarterback prospect. Second, NFL QBs completed 41.5 percent of passes when under duress last year. Only three NFL QBS had a duress percentage lower than Carr's collegiate rate. We don't need to explain the difference between NFL edge rushers and those found in the Mountain West Conference.

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Rotoworld:

ESPN Stats & Information reports that Fresno State's Derek Carr completed only 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress in 2013.

This number is terrifying for a few reasons. First off, it's the lowest duress rate of any top quarterback prospect. Second, NFL QBs completed 41.5 percent of passes when under duress last year. Only three NFL QBS had a duress percentage lower than Carr's collegiate rate. We don't need to explain the difference between NFL edge rushers and those found in the Mountain West Conference.

Source: ESPN Insider

I'd like to know what the duress rate was for the other "top QBs." This is a valid concern for Carr given what I've seen but context is important. Was he the worst but the margin was small? Say the other guys were at 32%. Or was he the worst and the other guys were at 45%? It kind of makes a difference.

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Greg Peshek tracked accuracy under pressure (links: one, two) and has this year's QBs with these completion percentages:

63% Bortles
63% Bridgewater
60% Manziel
57% McCarron
50% Carr
50% Mettenberger
50% Murray
39% Boyd
35% Shaw

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Greg Peshek tracked accuracy under pressure (links: one, two) and has this year's QBs with these completion percentages:

63% Bortles

63% Bridgewater

60% Manziel

57% McCarron

50% Carr

50% Mettenberger

50% Murray

39% Boyd

35% Shaw

Wow. That's vastly different from ESPN's claim. That certainly piques the curiosity.

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the term "under pressure" is pretty subjective and can be applied under any criteria you want to make up. what's more significant is how each QB rates relative to the rest of their class peers. what still comes off as alarming is the stat from ESPN that says a typical average NFL QB (wish they'd give us some names, Dalton maybe? Tannehill?) completes 41 percent of his throws under duress, and Carr only 30 percent. It would suggest that unless he gets some developmental training and a redshirt pro season to sit and learn, that he's no where near ready to step on the field in his rookie year and take the flying bullets.

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Greg Peshek tracked accuracy under pressure (links: one, two) and has this year's QBs with these completion percentages:

63% Bortles

63% Bridgewater

60% Manziel

57% McCarron

50% Carr

50% Mettenberger

50% Murray

39% Boyd

35% Shaw

Still below the other top prospects.

Reminds me too much of his brother.

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Expert's take: Derek Carr

Ben Gossling

MINNEAPOLIS -- We're continuing our series on the Minnesota Vikings' quarterback options in the upcoming draft, with the help of ESPN NFL scout Matt Williamson (a former NFL and college scout for the Cleveland Browns) and ESPN NFL analyst Louis Riddick, who was formerly the director of pro personnel for the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins, as well as an eight-year NFL veteran.

Today, we're looking at Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr, who might be one of the best examples of how polarizing this quarterback class is. Some mock drafts have Carr breaking into the top 10; others have him going late in the first round or even in the second round. Even between our two experts, there's a difference of opinion; Williamson said "most people like Derek Carr more than I do," while Riddick believes Carr is the best fit for Norv Turner's offense in Minnesota.

The Vikings have spent plenty of time with Carr, meeting with him at the Senior Bowl and holding a private workout with him after his pro day. The best course of action might be to see if they can get him in the second round, or trade back into the first round, after selecting a defensive player with the No. 8 overall pick. But to do that, the Vikings would have to figure out where Carr fits in a wide range of draft scenarios.

Let's take a closer look at him:

2013 stats: 68.9 completion percentage, 5,083 yards, 50 touchdowns, 8 interceptions.

NFL combine measurements: 6-foot-2, 214 pounds, 31 1/2-inch arm length, 9 1/8-inch hand span.

Pros: Carr showed an ability to make all the throws required of a NFL quarterback, and of any passer in this draft, Riddick said, Carr is the one whose resume fits best with what Turner will want. "He's going to want a guy who can hit those 15-, 20-, 25-yard dig routes, the deep post, the go route, the deep comeback on the outside -- which is really the hardest throw to make in the NFL," Riddick said. "To me, the one guy who can really do that, if you look at some of his older film when he was running a pro-style offense in college, is Derek Carr. Now, is Derek Carr supposed to go that high? Is he supposed to be a top-10 pick in the draft? No, he's not. But he is the guy who can really do it." His arm is probably strong enough, and his release quick enough, to handle much of what Turner wants.

Cons: Williamson's biggest concern with Carr was how the quarterback handles pressure, and at times in college, Carr had a tendency to overshoot some off-balance throws. Playing behind the Vikings' offensive line, he isn't likely to spend a great deal of time under fire, but every NFL quarterback has to throw under duress at times, and the best ones can be accurate on the run. Teams will also have to project Carr's fit in a NFL scheme based on what he did earlier in his career at Fresno State, when the Bulldogs were running more of a pro-style scheme under Pat Hill. At the end of his time at Fresno State, Carr was playing mostly in the shotgun and pistol, and he'd have to be able to drop back in Turner's offense. "I could see why they would like him, but I don't think I would use that (No. 8 ) pick on him. I think he's clearly fourth among those top four guys (Central Florida's Blake Bortles, Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater)."

Bottom line: The Vikings might not need to take Carr with the eighth overall pick, but he seems like he'd have the tools to grow into Turner's system. He could be a good option for the Vikings, either early in the second round or with a trade back into the bottom of the first round.

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NFL Draft Under the Microscope: Fresno State QB Derek Carr

Frank Schwab

Leading up to the NFL draft on May 8-10, Shutdown Corner will examine some of the most interesting prospects in the class, breaking down their strengths and weaknesses.

Derek Carr

Quarterback

Fresno State

6-foot-2, 214 pounds

2013 stats: 453-of-659 (68.7 percent), 5,082 yards, 50 touchdowns, 8 interceptions

40-yard dash: 4.69 seconds (official time at combine)

The good: It's impossible to talk about Derek Carr without mentioning older brother David Carr, so let's get down to it. While it's usually brought up as a negative, it's not the worst thing to be compared to a former No. 1 overall pick (whose career would have turned out a lot better had anyone ever blocked for him). Derek is a couple inches shorter and a few pounds lighter than David, but he's the same kind of athletic, strong-armed quarterback. Derek also put up much better numbers than his brother, although it was in a different offense.

Derek has a fantastic quick release and can make every throw. While he wasn't asked to run in college, his 4.69 40-yard dash shows he can. Johnny Manziel had a 4.68 40-yard dash. And say what you want about how he put up his numbers, it's never a bad thing to play well in college. And Carr did, with 5,082 passing yards and 50 touchdowns at Fresno State last year. He had almost 13,000 yards in college in three years as a starter.

The bad: Carr's numbers and highlights come with a few disclaimers. He did it in the Mountain West, which was not a great conference last year, and he got to face a lot of bad defenses. He had a huge opportunity to answer those questions in the Las Vegas Bowl against USC, and he had by far his worst game of the season. His 216 yards were his second fewest of the season, his 53.7 completion percentage was the only time he was under 60 percent in a game all season and his 95.8 rating was by far his lowest and well off his season rating of 156.1.

If you were an NFL team that wondered if he was a product of playing bad competition, that is scary. And in 2012 his lowest rated game came against Oregon, the best team Fresno played that season. There's also the question about how his numbers were a result of playing in a fast-paced spread offense. He also doesn't have ideal size, and yes, his brother being tagged as a bust is not going to help him either.

The verdict: Carr's projected draft spot has fluctuated dramatically, and that's probably because you have to wonder about what you see on tape. The throws are all there. The athleticism is apparent. It's easy to picture him doing some good things in the NFL. But you always have to keep in mind that all of the good things came against mediocre competition. There are no New Mexicos or San Jose States on the NFL schedule. And if you're the team that is going to invest a first-round pick (you have to wonder if a team in the top half of the round will reach for him) or an early second in Carr, you have to rationalize what happened against USC, like maybe his teammates weren't good enough to help him against the Trojans' four- and five-star recruits.

Whoever drafts Carr is probably going to expect him to start sooner rather than later. Because he's never had much success against top competition, it's risky to think he'll be an impact player right away.

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Rotoworld:

Appearing on ESPN's NFL Insiders Monday, Chris Mortensen called Fresno State QB Derek Carr "a name you hear affiliated" with the Chiefs.

It comes on the heels of NFL Network's report that the Chiefs will consider a quarterback at No. 23. Mort hinted the Chiefs could be eyeing someone like Carr in a trade down, perhaps to the second round. It's possible this is just a leverage play from the Chiefs in the Alex Smith talks, but Andy Reid has often had a second- or third-round quarterback to develop. It would be sensible behind Smith in Kansas City.
Related: Chiefs

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Rotoworld:

Appearing on ESPN's NFL Insiders Monday, Chris Mortensen called Fresno State QB Derek Carr "a name you hear affiliated" with the Chiefs.

It comes on the heels of NFL Network's report that the Chiefs will consider a quarterback at No. 23. Mort hinted the Chiefs could be eyeing someone like Carr in a trade down, perhaps to the second round. It's possible this is just a leverage play from the Chiefs in the Alex Smith talks, but Andy Reid has often had a second- or third-round quarterback to develop. It would be sensible behind Smith in Kansas City.

Related: Chiefs

This seems odd to me. Is Tyler Bray underperforming that badly? I saw Reid draft him and thought his game was tailor made for Reid's O.

I know Smith is taking a hard stance in getting a huge paycheck and KC is resistant to paying that much for a QB whose play is so contrary to what Reid wants to do on O, but the only reasons I could fathom for KC burning a 1st rounder on a QB from this class is either that Bray is just a bust or they are actually considering cutting Smith loose and having a QB competition for the starting spot between Bray and the 23rd pick.

I see Bray and Carr as being very similar QBs, and both fit what Reid loves to do - attack all over the field, throw a bunch, take a few risks. They both are pocket guys with cannon arms who trust their ability to throw into tight windows and multiple coverages - sometimes too much - and will and can push the deep ball. I guess it would make sense to having two such similar guys in running the O. Either one would make Bowe look a whole lot better.

I'd be interested in hearing what KC homers think.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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I'm guessing Tyler Bray has nothing to do with it. He's an UDFA #3 QB on the roster. If anything it's either leverage for Smith negotiations or general confusion on their actual draft desires.

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For the record I'm sticking with the cards taking him in the first.

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Rotoworld:

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora is "told" Fresno State QB Derek Carr would be "very much in play" for the Browns if he lasted until the No. 26 overall pick.

Carr has athleticism to run Kyle Shanahan's boot-action game, and a big arm to threaten defenses vertically. La Canfora believes Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater is also in play at 26, which was previously seconded by the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Either quarterback could "redshirt" in year one behind Brian Hoyer. Ultimately, La Canfora thinks Carr will be gone, giving the Browns a better chance to land Bridgewater with their second first-round pick.
Related: Browns
Source: CBS Sports

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Pat Yasinskas believes the Bucs could target Fresno State QB Derek Carr if they trade down from the No. 7 spot.

We'd be a little surprised if Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel was on the board at No. 7 and the Bucs passed. But if he's gone, their QB target could end up being Carr. David Carr, Derek's older brother, was coached by new Bucs OC Jeff Tedford in college. The Browns (despite their very public love for Teddy Bridgewater) are also a potential landing spot for Derek at No. 26 overall.
Related: Browns, Buccaneers
Source: ESPN.com

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports multiple personnel directors expect Fresno State's Derek Carr to come off the board before Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater.

It's not surprising considering the way both players' media-perceived stock has been trending in recent weeks. Carr is shaping up as a strong bet to come off the board on Thursday evening, with Cleveland at No. 26 being his fail safe. Of course, few teams appear higher on Bridgewater than the Browns, so it's unlikely they were one of Schefter's sources.

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Here it comes. AZ makes a great trade, picks up a 3rd and still gets Carr.

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Here it comes. AZ makes a great trade, picks up a 3rd and still gets Carr.

Nevermind

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Another Carr in H-Town?

If first you don't succeed...

seems so strange

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Another Carr in H-Town?

love your avatar pic!

'right, but this amp goes to eleven'

classic!

Edited by Tanner9919

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Another Carr in H-Town?

I was going to start a thread on this subject a week or so back, but is/would Carr be "off the table" based on his lineage?

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Rotoworld:

NFL Network's Albert Breer reports multiple teams have Fresno State's Derek Carr graded as the top quarterback in the draft.

They just didn't think enough of him to draft Carr in round one. Breer says he's "heard Jay Cutler comparisons" on Carr, who has a big arm but struggles in muddy pockets. We'd be surprised if Carr got past the Raiders at No. 36.
Related: Raiders

The Houston Chronicle considers Fresno State QB Derek Carr the "leader in the clubhouse" to be the Texans' pick at No. 33 overall.

After taking Jadeveon Clowney No. 1 overall and opting not to trade back into the first round for a quarterback, the Texans are on the clock and need to address the position. There's speculation they could be trading for Patriots backup Ryan Mallett. If that doesn't come to fruition, Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo could be options at 33. The Texans could also opt to pass and address the O-line.
Related: Texans
Edited by Faust

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I do not think Houston will refuse to take Derek Carr because of David. But neither do I think they need to take a QB at 2.1. I think dropping back a couple picks would be my preference for Houston if able.

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Rotoworld:

Raiders selected Fresno State QB Derek Carr with the No. 36 overall pick in the 2014 draft.

Carr (6-foot-2 3/8, 214) earned Mountain West Offensive POY honors as both a junior and senior, finishing his career with a 24-15 record, 66.6 completion rate, and 113:24 TD-to-INT ratio. Carr was very effective in the pass rush-bereft Mountain West, but noticeably struggled to make throws with bodies around him, despite a Cutlerian arm. His Las Vegas Bowl performance against USC was a big red flag. Carr has outstanding arm talent and plus athleticism, but a long way to go to play functional quarterback in an NFL pocket, and is a work in progress mechanically. He's essentially a project despite 39 college starts. The Raiders will develop David's younger brother behind bridge starter Matt Schaub.

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Inside Slant: NFL Draft Day 2 matches

By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com

Excerpt:

Last season, Oakland Raiders quarterbacks were under duress on 134 pass attempts, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Their Total Quarterback Rating on those throws was 13.4, No. 26 in the league.

("Under duress" is defined as any play where a quarterback is forced from the pocket, forced to alter his throwing motion or forced to move within the pocket because of pressure. It also includes plays when the quarterback threw with a defender clear in his line of sight or when he was hit while throwing.)

The Raiders have since signed three new starters to their offensive line and are hoping for better pass protection in 2014 and beyond. They had better get it for quarterback Derek Carr, whom they selected at No. 36 overall.

Last season at Fresno State, Carr completed just 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress, the worst mark of any quarterback prospect in this draft. (For context, consider that Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater had the best at 53.4). Carr's completion percentage when in a protected pocket was 72 percent, and the difference in those figures fueled the perception that Carr lacks poise when under pressure -- a key measuring stick for NFL quarterbacks.

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I've got the 2 and 5 picks in an upcoming 2QB draft. Thinking Bortles or Manziel goes #1. At two I probably goes with the other. I then expect Carr or Bridgewater to go next. If either slide I have to take him. I like Carr a lot.

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Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Raiders rookie QB Derek Carr is already taking snaps away from QB Matt McGloin and could push Matt Schaub for the starting job in Oakland.

Schaub is still clearly the Raiders' starter, but coach Dennis Allen said, "everything is written in pencil." Carr is expectedly dominating non-contact practices during OTAs and minicamp. The real test will come when Carr faces the live rush he often had problems coping with in college. No matter how he plays in training camp, the odds are Carr will end up in the starting role at some point this season.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Jun 12 - 8:05 PM

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Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Raiders rookie QB Derek Carr is already taking snaps away from QB Matt McGloin and could push Matt Schaub for the starting job in Oakland.

Schaub is still clearly the Raiders' starter, but coach Dennis Allen said, "everything is written in pencil." Carr is expectedly dominating non-contact practices during OTAs and minicamp. The real test will come when Carr faces the live rush he often had problems coping with in college. No matter how he plays in training camp, the odds are Carr will end up in the starting role at some point this season.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Jun 12 - 8:05 PM

Yeah OK but Tyler Wilson was getting similar hype last season.

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Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Raiders rookie QB Derek Carr is already taking snaps away from QB Matt McGloin and could push Matt Schaub for the starting job in Oakland.

Schaub is still clearly the Raiders' starter, but coach Dennis Allen said, "everything is written in pencil." Carr is expectedly dominating non-contact practices during OTAs and minicamp. The real test will come when Carr faces the live rush he often had problems coping with in college. No matter how he plays in training camp, the odds are Carr will end up in the starting role at some point this season.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Jun 12 - 8:05 PM

Yeah OK but Tyler Wilson was getting similar hype last season.

Not really. The Tyler Wilson hype was all media driven, no sources just beat writer speculation. In the above rotoworld blurb, it's important to note that Dennis Allen still has Schaub as the Raiders starter. And the recent praise for Carr is coming from the offensive coordinator, Greg Olson, not Allen. Still that's more of an inside source for the hype machine than Tyler Wilson ever got.

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Check out the instagram video of Carr throwing 61 MPH on a radar gun. Unofficial, but it's better than any drafted QB in the past 7 years. He's not a popgun QB like Fitzpatrick if you are assuming smart means he's limited.

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