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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Paul Richardson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I don't know really. Who was the last receiver in Seattle that was a true fantasy WR2? Koren Robinson?
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Probably that one crazy year outta Bobby Engram where he had almost 100 catches.
Darrell Jackson had a nice year the year before that for them too. Double digit TDs.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Before last year people would have said when was the last time GB had a true fantasy RB1/RB2........always better to be ahead of the curve.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think you're guilty of putting a too much stock into a receiver's size. Nobody will argue with you that height and thickness helps a receiver, but lack thereof does not make failure a certainty. Every player has too many different facets to his game and ability to myopically focus on one lacking aspect. Virtually all players have some sort of red flag or another. You're boy Allen Robinson runs pretty slow. If I wanted, I could use your logic to make a similar list of successful fast receivers. But that wouldn't actually prove anything. Slow receivers have done well in the NFL, just like skinny receivers have also done well.
We don't need to ask whether Allen Robinson is 'too slow', or Paul Richardson is 'too skinny'. We need to ask: Does Allen Robinson make up for slowness enough in other ways? Does Paul Richardson make up for thinness enough in other ways?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I don't see how this kid is going to push his way past Harvin, Kearse, and Baldwin who are all still pretty young. And even if he does, this is a team that's going to spread the ball out and run run run. And they should. That's their bread and butter.
It's great when you hit on a lottery ticket but there is definitely an opportunity cost for using that roster spot. I think Richardson might have something long term but I doubt he does much this season or even next. Maybe but I'd rather take my chances on a guy like Jordan Mathews or Davante Adams who more closely fit the profile, are in offenses that feature the receivers a bit more, and were picked around the same spot.
Obviously Richardson is talented enough to catch the Seahawks eye. But I think he's more Devin Hester than Marvin Harrison. But I've been wrong before.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Nobody said failure is a certainty. Just playing the odds, it would appears that a guy who is 6'3 and 220 has a better shot than a guy who is 6' and 180. Nothing is an absolute though obviously because we are talking about human beings. Humans are great a bucking the odds as individuals. As a larger group they become much more predictable. The larger the group, the more predictable the outcome. The larger the sample size, the more accurately we can predict in general. But we can never predict perfectly. I'll just play the odds.
On the other hand I do like his draft slot ahead of Davante Adams though. That's interesting to me.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Situation's change and Seattle will probably start passing the ball more as Wilson gets more experience. If a quality receiver is there to take advantage they will.
Can Richardson? He's electric, but I can't get past 6'1 170. That screams role player to me. A very good role player though.
Can Richardson? He's electric, but I can't get past 6'1 170. That screams role player to me. A very good role player though.
Khy
Footballguy
First, he has stated publically he's around 180-185 now. Not 170.
With that out of the way. Yes, Seattle will have to start passing more. Again, look at Wilson's stats the past two seasons. He has done better in his first two years than Brady, Manning, Brews etc. Once they pay Wilson like the franchise QB he is, they'll have to start passing more. That'll open up a lot.
MAC_32
Footballguy
More weight can be a good thing, but it isn't always. His body is used to playing at a certain weight. It doesn't always respond well to the transformation.
I really wanted the Browns to draft him, but I wasn't really after him in my rookie drafts. He's near the top of my muddled quantity tier though.
EBF
Footballguy
He's still a stick figure and he probably always will be.
As I said earlier, if you like him it should be because you think he can be successful as what he is, not because you think he's going to become something different. He's always going to be a really skinny guy with speed.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
And 170 is "around" 180 so I don't give talk in June much weight. And I'm always dubious of a 10% weight gain for an explosive player. So it's not even necessarily a good thing if he puts on weight. So no, that's not "out of the way." He may or may not have gained weight and it may or may not make him slower/faster/quicker/more injury prone/less injury prone/stronger.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Which receiver would you rather have:
6'0" 175, 2nd round pick
6'5" 230, 5th round pick
5Rings
Lurker
I gave a 2015 4th for him
cstu
Footballguy
He doesn't have to change much and he is who he is - a slight framed speed demon. Marvin Harrison had a nice career at the same size.
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Richardson was drafted at 2.12 in my league but my 2015 2nd and 2015 4th offer was rejected
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You mention Adams and Matthews but (and I haven't done any drafts since June) you can get both easily in drafts and I did in some. That's why I think he's appealing.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I like Richardson. I like that he was a high pick. That's for sure. And Seattle has hit on tons of picks lately. I just don't know that he's the kind of player who makes Pete Carroll take the ball out of Lynch's hands.
Khy
Footballguy
Lynch isn't long for this world. When he leaves Seattle they'll start passing the ball a lot more. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked if they upped their ratio this season to try and keep Lynch fresh for another Bowl run.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Lynch isn't a guy I'd bet against. And as you said a lot can change. But Richardson still has a lot of young talent to surpass to get on the field consistently. And they could draft a we in the first round next year. They could get gutted in free agency down the road . Anything can happen that's for sure. That's not always good though.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Do you think the size of the receiver correlates to NFL success more than draft status?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'd say I value draft slot over any other measurable. But I was leery of Tavon Austin last year despite that and like Hopkins better. Still do.
Hooper31
Footballguy
This is wrong. Perhaps when Pete Carroll leaves Seattle they'll start passing the ball a lot more. They aren't shy about saying it and have consistent in executing this game plan since Carroll's arrival. Their controlled and methodical offensive style is part of an overall team philosophy. They brought in Lynch because he fits their model. They didn't build their model around Lynch.
They want to be efficient on offense and possess the ball. They want fewer possessions in a game. They want their defense on the field as little as possible. IMO its highly unlikely that any of the Seattle receivers are going to be consistent fantasy contributors. Same with Wilson. The best comparison I can come up with is Aikman in the 90s. Mediocre fantasy production, but outstanding game management and win percentage.
Catbird
Footballguy
Point well taken, but I think its a little bit overstated. In Aikman's first 2 full seasons (his second and third) he threw for 2,500 and 2,700 yards. Wilson has thrown for 3,100 and 3,300. Aikman, only once in his entire career threw for over more than Wilson did last year, but managed to support Michael Irvin for 5 straight years over 1,200 yards (2 of those over 1,500). If Wilson's development increases his passing production at a rate similarly to how Aikman did in the run heavy Dallas offense of the 90's, there will be plenty of yards and TDs to support a high production receiver or two.
(Edited for excessive typos)
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Lynch will take the ball out of Lynch's hands when he moves on.
Richardson is more talented than any other receiver on the team outside of Harvin. He's more talented than Rice, only he has a different build. Given Rice's age and injury history, I don't see much of a threat there. Richardson is going to pass everyone else on the depth chart outside Harvin. While 2014 won't bring much, I think he's starting in 2 WR sets in 2015.
The only question is whether Seattle maintains a run first identity with Michael once Lynch moves on. I think people are discounting the fact that Carrol and company kinda stumbled onto Wilson. It wasn't like they brought him in knowing what he was and planning to install him as a game manager. And they sure have been focusing on adding WR's the last two years. Whether by design or necessity, I think this team is going to evolve into a more pass friendly identity. They play in domes or good weather in their division. Why ignore this subtle but seemingly intentional accumulation of speed in the passing game? Even if the intention is not to bail on their run first identity, I think at a minimum they are trying to create firepower in the passing game so they aren't toothless when the running game gets stifled. And it has from time to time.
And as much as they may preach that ground and pound message, Wilson has still flirted with QB1 numbers despite that. You can't tell me that they are going to ignore the ability to confuse the defense and keep their opponent on their toes by having deadly ground and air attacks. And consider that the strength of Seattle's defense is pass defense. Keeping scoring pressure on their opponents makes the opponent play right into the strength of Seattle's defense.
Back to Richardson, the thing people always seem to discount about him is his "my ball" mentality. He's isn't some shrinking violet that is going to lose jump balls by being too short. He's skinny, but he isn't short nor is he soft. And some focus on functional strength can pay dividends on the field even if it doesn't change his weight much. I don't think he going to get pigeon-holed as a deep threat.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
You make a ton of assumptions I that post. All have to be on the mark for Richardson to become fantasy gold. Also throw in that he may have been drafted to preserve Harvin from having to do returns. If he takes over return responsibilities the team might be reticent to use him in the base packages.
Tau837
Footballguy
I also think Hooper's post is on point but overstated.
For one thing, they will be paying Wilson $20M+ per year soon, which will obviously impact the rest of the roster. I know they have locked up most of the secondary, but it seems likely that over time the rest of the defense will suffer due to cap ramifications. Lynch will also either move on due to cap issues or will eventually wear down, and, while most are hopeful that Michael and/or Turbin can step in and produce, there is no guarantee they can replicate Lynch's production.
So there are reasons to think the defense and running game may both slide a bit in coming seasons, at the same time as Wilson enters his prime, surrounded by young, quality receiving talent. That should result in a change to the offensive philosophy.
Carroll is a good coach. Good coaches don't force their system on players; they adapt their system to their personnel.
This may not happen this season but I doubt it will take much longer than that to see changes.
For one thing, they will be paying Wilson $20M+ per year soon, which will obviously impact the rest of the roster. I know they have locked up most of the secondary, but it seems likely that over time the rest of the defense will suffer due to cap ramifications. Lynch will also either move on due to cap issues or will eventually wear down, and, while most are hopeful that Michael and/or Turbin can step in and produce, there is no guarantee they can replicate Lynch's production.
So there are reasons to think the defense and running game may both slide a bit in coming seasons, at the same time as Wilson enters his prime, surrounded by young, quality receiving talent. That should result in a change to the offensive philosophy.
Carroll is a good coach. Good coaches don't force their system on players; they adapt their system to their personnel.
This may not happen this season but I doubt it will take much longer than that to see changes.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
There is no guarantee that Carroll is still the coach in a few seasons either.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
You could end up eating those words.Hooper31 said:
Carroll comes from a defensive back ground, and really doesn't stick with one offensive philosophy. In general, he is the last guy who sould stick to one scheme just because. If you remember, when at USC, he ran an offense with little resemblance to the one in Seattle. They actually passed the ball a good bit; the offense was far from the smash mouth run it down your throat type.
I'd say the offense in Seattle has more to do with Darrell Bevell than Pete Caroll - and offensive coordinators come and go. Even assuming Darrell Bevell stays as OC, I still believe possibly things could change for the better if you own Russell Wilson. Bevell typically passes the ball more than he did the last two years in Seattle, although nobody would call him pass happy. He has called as many as 550 pass plays in a season - when he wasn't teamed up with an all world defense.
As long as Seattle has a prevailing defense, I could easily see them continuing to pound the rock, passing less than 450 times. It's a sound strategy. But how long can hold together such defensive oppression? In the free agency age, dominant forces come and go quite quickly. Seattle will eventually give up more than 300 points, at which point passing more becomes necessity.
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cstu
Footballguy
Ultimately it comes down to winning football games and if they can do that without throwing the ball much they will. However, if the running game is not as effective or they need more points then the play calling will change.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I believe many of the people who don't like this kid likely haven't even watched him play.
He makes a 4 route look easy, very subtly creating some space. Flexibility allows an out route is as smooth as Johnny Walker's Black Label; which will set up a wicked double move, making a solid corner look shabby. His dig route is just as good, again subtly gaining space against a solid corner. Despite his stature, his toughness needs not questioning; he'll put his body on the line, even if he doesn't make the catch every time.
Nobody will deny he has some weaknesses though, as he will get out muscled for the ball. I doubt he'll ever make a good 3rd and 3 receiver. But he could step in as Darrell Bevell's Minnesota version of Sidney Rice. Hopefully everybody remembers his excellent year as an outside receiver.
He makes a 4 route look easy, very subtly creating some space. Flexibility allows an out route is as smooth as Johnny Walker's Black Label; which will set up a wicked double move, making a solid corner look shabby. His dig route is just as good, again subtly gaining space against a solid corner. Despite his stature, his toughness needs not questioning; he'll put his body on the line, even if he doesn't make the catch every time.
Nobody will deny he has some weaknesses though, as he will get out muscled for the ball. I doubt he'll ever make a good 3rd and 3 receiver. But he could step in as Darrell Bevell's Minnesota version of Sidney Rice. Hopefully everybody remembers his excellent year as an outside receiver.
Hooper31
Footballguy
Could i be wrong in the long term? Sure. I don't have a problem being wrong. I'm just sharing information.
5Rings
Lurker
I've had 8 rookie drafts and haven't seen him go higher than 3.11.
seems to be the last Wr to go, I think the Seattle O scares folks off. I think he starts off providing more value stretching the field and no fantasy value, allowing you to buy him cheap a year from now from frustrated owners. I love th talent but not sure on Seattle
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
That thought process makes no sense. He's a rookie. Even AJ Green didn't have 1000 yds his rookie season. Nor did CJ. You usually know fairly early what these guys ceilings tend to be or whether they are AJ Jenkins/Jon Baldwins. As someone who has him on a lot of my rosters I don't expect much this year but his value has already grown in my eyes through OTAs and Seattles indication that they like what they have recieved. If he flashes just a little bit or gets any traction in that offense no way you're getting the value you're getting him in drafts now kemosabe.I've had 8 rookie drafts and haven't seen him go higher than 3.11.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
The nature of prediction is assumption.
I also don't buy that they spent the 45th pick (their first in the draft, BTW) on a guy to replace Harvin for returns. You may end up having your rookie 2nd rounder return punts and kicks because he can do it better than the next guy in line. And you may have a former 2nd rounder do it because he's washing out at WR and you are simply trying to get some return on your investment. But drafting a guy that early who only had one return in his 3 year college career (in 2012, no less) isn't the way to do that for Harvin.
As for being gold, I'm not claiming he will be. I don't even know what qualifies as fantasy gold in your mind. He may never be better than a WR3 in fantasy. But at his acquisition price, you start looking at ceiling rather than floor, IMHO, and I think he has as high a ceiling as anyone not named Watkins and Evans.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
As a risk/reward player he's got some upside. Why do supporter think his ADP is so low in comparison to his draft slot? He wasn't even drafted in one league I am in and was the 53rd pick in another. Not saying he has no value, but why has the fantasy football community as a whole shunned him? I wish I had him but I traded my 3.11 and 3.12 for a 2015 first to a drunken drafter 
In my shallower league I'd have to cut Eifert or Lattimore for him and I don't think he's got that kind of upside.
In my shallower league I'd have to cut Eifert or Lattimore for him and I don't think he's got that kind of upside.
amnesiac
beer is good
i got him near the top of the 5th round in a deep idp dynasty.
would've taken him near the top of the 4th, but i was picking from my phone and didn't realize he was still there.
i don't know why he lasted so long, especially with what seems like a weak idp class.
i really like his potential, especially at that price, but i could see the reservations some have if your league has a shallow bench.
would've taken him near the top of the 4th, but i was picking from my phone and didn't realize he was still there.
i don't know why he lasted so long, especially with what seems like a weak idp class.
i really like his potential, especially at that price, but i could see the reservations some have if your league has a shallow bench.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
We completely missed this kid pre-draft. When the Seahawks took him in the second, I for one hadn't even heard of him. This thread didn't get started until after the draft. Fantasy guys tend fall in love with their players before the draft takes place; maybe they haven't even given Richardson a fair shot. Or they place too much emphasis on his low weight.
His situation in a low pass attempt offense has less to do with it, imo. If Richardson had been drafted by the Eagles, and Matthews by the Seahawks, I doubt the former would have as high as a mid 1st ADP, or the latter as low as a late 3rd ADP.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Funny you should mention the Eagles as Josh Huff is an interesting guy. He doesn't have an ideal physical profile at 5'11" and 206 lbs, but he was a fairly high pick as well going in the third round at 86th overall. He was picked right before Moncrief and right after Landry. I don't think I've seen him mentioned at all on these boards.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I thought about starting a thread on Huff just this morning. lol. But then I lost interest; no reason to build hype.
I like Huff a good bit. Given the choice of paying 1.06 for Matthews or 4.04 for Huff - no brainier. The discrepancy amazes me.
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cstu
Footballguy
Not everybody, I had him as my 12th WR in the draft. Thought he'd be an ideal replacement for DJax in Philly in the 3rd. When he went a round earlier to the Seahawks as the 8th WR off the board it got my attention and he was a guy I targeted in every draft.
cstu
Footballguy
Catbird
Footballguy
I think the reasons pre-draft buzz was particularly low on Richardson include the SEA offense, but start with him playing for a horrible team (COL) rarely seen by anyone, his size (amidst the loud debate about big receivers vs. little focusing on Watkins/Evans and following Tavon's lackluster first year as highly picked little guy) and the large number of very talented WRs with a lot more exposure/size/apparent situation. I think a guy averaging 40 ypc for his 21 college TDs with blazing speed, great hands and a fighting 'my ball' attitude would have had a very different place in rookie drafts had he played his college ball at USC or Georgia.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Waldman had a lot of good things to say about him in the RSP. He also had him considerably higher than everyone else.
