Would have been nice if people showed up.Since we know so much about war weight and matchmaking, maybe we could have a scrimmage between ourselves.
So upgrade xbows quick because it doesn't mean much. I'M ON IT.Here's something I threw together to illustrate the matchmaking issues.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwEnEbl4YrneZ0FVMVZpWWRkdGM/view?usp=sharing
This is the sum total of every opponent fbgs played which I took down data for. I highlighted the interesting sections.
There was some questioning of why we got matched with people with max xbows when we had L1 xbows. Well this very clearly explains why this is so. The distribution of TH9 is quite tight compared to TH10. There is roughly 2000 weight points separating an early TH9 and late TH9 and an additional 6000!!!! separating an early TH10 with a max TH10.
You can find tiers in this that come out very cleanly. (Max8, Max9, L3 infernos both done, etc.)
So you want to know why you might get outmatched a bit in the TH9 range, and why fighting wars gets alot harder, alot more quickly at TH9, look no further than this plot. Tells the whole story.
I should probably turn that plot into a heat map. That would illustrate a little better the impact.So upgrade xbows quick because it doesn't mean much. I'M ON IT.Here's something I threw together to illustrate the matchmaking issues.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwEnEbl4YrneZ0FVMVZpWWRkdGM/view?usp=sharing
This is the sum total of every opponent fbgs played which I took down data for. I highlighted the interesting sections.
There was some questioning of why we got matched with people with max xbows when we had L1 xbows. Well this very clearly explains why this is so. The distribution of TH9 is quite tight compared to TH10. There is roughly 2000 weight points separating an early TH9 and late TH9 and an additional 6000!!!! separating an early TH10 with a max TH10.
You can find tiers in this that come out very cleanly. (Max8, Max9, L3 infernos both done, etc.)
So you want to know why you might get outmatched a bit in the TH9 range, and why fighting wars gets alot harder, alot more quickly at TH9, look no further than this plot. Tells the whole story.
I should probably turn thatSo upgrade xbows quick because it doesn't mean much. I'M ON IT.Here's something I threw together to illustrate the matchmaking issues.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwEnEbl4YrneZ0FVMVZpWWRkdGM/view?usp=sharing
This is the sum total of every opponent fbgs played which I took down data for. I highlighted the interesting sections.
There was some questioning of why we got matched with people with max xbows when we had L1 xbows. Well this very clearly explains why this is so. The distribution of TH9 is quite tight compared to TH10. There is roughly 2000 weight points separating an early TH9 and late TH9 and an additional 6000!!!! separating an early TH10 with a max TH10.
You can find tiers in this that come out very cleanly. (Max8, Max9, L3 infernos both done, etc.)
So you want to know why you might get outmatched a bit in the TH9 range, and why fighting wars gets alot harder, alot more quickly at TH9, look no further than this plot. Tells the whole story.plot into a heat mapgo outside, wash the dishes, or do like 10,000 more meaningful things with your short time you have on this planet and yes this is coming from someone who has thousands of posts on a messageboard. That would illustrate a little better the impact.
Fallout Shelter here.I've been spending most of my game-playing time on Marvel Future Fight. That is all.
I heard this just came to Android. But it's pretty repetitive, is that right?Fallout Shelter here.I've been spending most of my game-playing time on Marvel Future Fight. That is all.
Kinda repetitive. There's not much action. It's like Sim Tower but you build downward.I heard this just came to Android. But it's pretty repetitive, is that right?Fallout Shelter here.I've been spending most of my game-playing time on Marvel Future Fight. That is all.
I enjoyed the Fallout games, but didn't finish the last two. At some point I don't play for a week, turn it back on, and I'm like pick up a quest, walk outside, and die because I forgot I was a vampire or some ####.
Pop into FBGS and have a look at Cliff JR's. It has held up very well for me.Just got to TH8 a couple of days ago from a maxxed TH7. I've got all the new defenses except 1 hidden Tesla.Anyone got a good TH8 base I can copy? I've looked on all the usual websites and took one from a Reddit post, but it got hit pretty hard and I'm not sure it's going to hold up very well.
I was using this base for TH8. It was a pretty good defense against giant attacks. They would always circle around the outer ring.http://www.clashingtips.com/2015/01/th8-4-mortar-farming-base-design-golden-planet.html?m=1Just got to TH8 a couple of days ago from a maxxed TH7. I've got all the new defenses except 1 hidden Tesla.
Anyone got a good TH8 base I can copy? I've looked on all the usual websites and took one from a Reddit post, but it got hit pretty hard and I'm not sure it's going to hold up very well.
They have some wet dream walk targets this war and I don't anticipate them putting up much of a fight. I mean 3 is a total joke. A level 5 queen with all healers could get 50%. And that's not the only candidate.Damn
We callin targets on tools?They have some wet dream walk targets this war and I don't anticipate them putting up much of a fight. I mean 3 is a total joke. A level 5 queen with all healers could get 50%. And that's not the only candidate.Damn
I mean if we just knew someone that had a max queen and wanted 25 TH10s to pick from a war to get 6.....
Call 12We callin targets on tools?They have some wet dream walk targets this war and I don't anticipate them putting up much of a fight. I mean 3 is a total joke. A level 5 queen with all healers could get 50%. And that's not the only candidate.Damn
I mean if we just knew someone that had a max queen and wanted 25 TH10s to pick from a war to get 6.....
Want to give this AQ walk a try - will have AQ36 when this war kicks off
I understand that the disagreement is tiring to some, in fact I find myself exhausted of it often. If it were simply a difference in personal philosophies I would ignore or even PM.Time to take this to PM, fellas.
The crux of the issue is that you are steadfast that storage values correlate perfectly with war weight. You are not open to any other possibility.Now we're getting somewhere!The storages. What's in the storages after prep day. If they masked this then I'd be screwed. I'd be left with trying to look at lootable, and lootable doesn't seem to tell the whole story because, while rare, you can have people with more lootable, but less weight, most commonly you can have someone with same lootable and different weights. So the math on those is different in some manner.How would you pick up on it?they've only changed the forumula once, and applied one hot fix. If something went really odd I'd pick up on it. I capture fbgs weights every 2-4 weeks or so and I'd immediately know something was up if they snuck something in.
If tonight, they change offensive weight from 0% to 50%, what would you observe? How would your patient zero tell you there was a change? You are still skirting the question.
My focus and everyone who tries to crack this has always been on storage values.
Culdeus, it is awesome that you have collected all this data. Would you be willing to share it with us?So upgrade xbows quick because it doesn't mean much. I'M ON IT.Here's something I threw together to illustrate the matchmaking issues.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwEnEbl4YrneZ0FVMVZpWWRkdGM/view?usp=sharing
This is the sum total of every opponent fbgs played which I took down data for. I highlighted the interesting sections.
There was some questioning of why we got matched with people with max xbows when we had L1 xbows. Well this very clearly explains why this is so. The distribution of TH9 is quite tight compared to TH10. There is roughly 2000 weight points separating an early TH9 and late TH9 and an additional 6000!!!! separating an early TH10 with a max TH10.
You can find tiers in this that come out very cleanly. (Max8, Max9, L3 infernos both done, etc.)
So you want to know why you might get outmatched a bit in the TH9 range, and why fighting wars gets alot harder, alot more quickly at TH9, look no further than this plot. Tells the whole story.
If the storage is not the war weight the arranged matches would not take place, can we agree on that?The crux of the issue is that you are steadfast that storage values correlate perfectly with war weight. You are not open to any other possibility.Now we're getting somewhere!The storages. What's in the storages after prep day. If they masked this then I'd be screwed. I'd be left with trying to look at lootable, and lootable doesn't seem to tell the whole story because, while rare, you can have people with more lootable, but less weight, most commonly you can have someone with same lootable and different weights. So the math on those is different in some manner.How would you pick up on it?they've only changed the forumula once, and applied one hot fix. If something went really odd I'd pick up on it. I capture fbgs weights every 2-4 weeks or so and I'd immediately know something was up if they snuck something in.
If tonight, they change offensive weight from 0% to 50%, what would you observe? How would your patient zero tell you there was a change? You are still skirting the question.
My focus and everyone who tries to crack this has always been on storage values.
If war weight does not correlate perfectly with storages, then the rest of your conclusions may be flawed. Can we agree on that?
No, I think arranging a match is not terribly difficult. Having two clans with similar composition to hit the button at the same time would suffice the majority of the time. Using the storage values for that is a neat exercise because it probably helps a little, particulary when there are additional clans searching at the same time. But far from it, if you think it's the only way to make it work.If the storage is not the war weight the arranged matches would not take place, can we agree on that?The crux of the issue is that you are steadfast that storage values correlate perfectly with war weight. You are not open to any other possibility.Now we're getting somewhere!The storages. What's in the storages after prep day. If they masked this then I'd be screwed. I'd be left with trying to look at lootable, and lootable doesn't seem to tell the whole story because, while rare, you can have people with more lootable, but less weight, most commonly you can have someone with same lootable and different weights. So the math on those is different in some manner.How would you pick up on it?they've only changed the forumula once, and applied one hot fix. If something went really odd I'd pick up on it. I capture fbgs weights every 2-4 weeks or so and I'd immediately know something was up if they snuck something in.
If tonight, they change offensive weight from 0% to 50%, what would you observe? How would your patient zero tell you there was a change? You are still skirting the question.
My focus and everyone who tries to crack this has always been on storage values.
If war weight does not correlate perfectly with storages, then the rest of your conclusions may be flawed. Can we agree on that?
But not all the members want to war, so I think we should have a clan that is serious 50 man wars all the time, a not so serious war 3 times a week clan, a farming clan, and a holder clan. So it's not confusing, I think new clans should be created for each, with detailed descriptions for all to read.I was thinking that maybe all of the FBG Clans should be broken up and we should have a draft. Let's discuss this please instead of that other topic.
If storages are not war weight, or correlate at least with base strength then everything is flawed. Yes, fine.No, I think arranging a match is not terribly difficult. Having two clans with similar composition to hit the button at the same time would suffice the majority of the time. Using the storage values for that is a neat exercise because it probably helps a little, particulary when there are additional clans searching at the same time. But far from it, if you think it's the only way to make it work.
So, answer mine then:
If war weight does not correlate perfectly with storages, then the rest of your conclusions may be flawed. Do you agree?
YES!!! Argument is OVERIf storages are not war weight, or correlate at least with base strength then everything is flawed. Yes, fine.No, I think arranging a match is not terribly difficult. Having two clans with similar composition to hit the button at the same time would suffice the majority of the time. Using the storage values for that is a neat exercise because it probably helps a little, particulary when there are additional clans searching at the same time. But far from it, if you think it's the only way to make it work.
So, answer mine then:
If war weight does not correlate perfectly with storages, then the rest of your conclusions may be flawed. Do you agree?
A little learning is a dangerous thing;Here's the central issue relating to the meta question of whether delaying defense matters.
First off, assumptions and data methods:
The game will try it's best to match your clan's curve +/- 10% at all levels. I quit sampling 100%, but on the matches of less than 20 minutes I sample every 5 bases. I figure that's good enough.
I quit sampling at matches lasting past 20 min, however, we get so few of those I would have sample size issues even if we did have longer match times.
20 minute is supercells own patch notes about their matchmaking. I have no reason to think they are lying here.
For TH9
TH9 war weight is an extremely narrow window. In my scale it's less than 2000. Why does this matter? Well, the tiniest little thing you do can swing you to the top of the heap quickly.
Why is this bad? Well, for one thing coming in from th8 at roughly 13500, placing queen gets you 15000 right away, then it's only 10 upgrades to 17500.
17500 gives you a range of ~19000 to 16000. 19000 is baby th10. 16000 is baby th9.
Lets say you punt the heavy defense and get to the 16000 range (setting aside mortars, L2/3 xbow) and keep walls skull for now. That gives you a range of ~18000 to ~14000 that could be a max th9, yes, but it could also be a very rushed TH9. And a low inferno 9 is NOT drawing a real TH10. Period. Not at least on a 20 minute search.
TH10
TH10 doesn't have this issue. Most people when they hit TH10 set the infernos, set the xbows and max them, quickly. That skyrockets them into their own tier where they will just simply draw bases with max infernos and xbows. That separation is so wide that a max TH9 simply can't draw a max th10. There's roughly a 6000 weight jump in doing this. There's just simply no point in not maxing infernos once you build them. As you can see from the plots the "no mans land" is wide. Odds are you end up there you'll just pull a max base anyways.
It comes down to this in a nutshell
For TH9 do you really think the 50DPS increase from two xbow level is worth the risk you draw a baby TH10? Can your clan handle the baby th10? If so, then fine.
For TH10 it's not nearly as big a deal. There is no TH11 (yet) so there's not some sort of base that exists out there that you don't have troops to handle for at least 2 stars. 2 stars is usually more than enough to win wars in the TH10 range. Not so in TH9.
The worst place to be imo is a max th9 with big defenses and crappy heroes. < 15/15. This means nearly certainly you can't handle a decent th9 base and you are now drawing at least a strong th9 that someone else has to deal with. If you find yourself at max th9 with low heroes by all means hit that th10 button. Yesterday. If you intend to max heroes at th9 then stay awhile.
Time to move on fellas.
Th9.5 in fbgs
Culdeus - convo won't change his mind
Channing - not on the boards
War - not sure his intentions
Zub - casual, has a name here but doesn't frequent often, if ever.
Th8.5 in fbgs
Jordan - he wanted to get camp space to 240 then was going to build xbows. Just completed 240
Yank - Thought I saw him mention he was going to start building xbows
Speedwad - casual
PB - casual.
Unless the other fbg clans have a bunch of x.5 and I'm guessing they don't by convos of the past, just let it go.
Satre - The only one listening to culdeus is culdeus, you're wasting your time. A lot of fbg members have been trying to get him to build infernos for weeks.
Well yeah, the worst place to be is having TH8s turning into early TH9s. We got really lucky that most of our people hit this phase when you could just pent hound people with a screen lick for 3 stars and heroes didn't even matter. (hell, you didn't even need them really). We struggled for a bit when they nerfed that, but we had enough runway to get our feet under us and sort of plan around it.It's still relevant for Honda, which is probably why Myk's post the other day had me start down this road again. Regardless, I'm content that we found a good spot to agree to disagree.
26 of my 35 available defenses have been for -1, most from guys with 4000+. Ive been sitting between 3400-3600 trophies during that time.On a different note, the snipes on me lately have been coming from high above in an overwhelming fashion. My last 14 defenses, only three took more than one trophy:
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-6
-8
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
I've been slowly climbing (unintentionally) above 3300 trophies. Are the other guys in champs seeing the same thing?
How does moving to TH10 solve the issue of drawing a tougher opponent than you can handle?The worst place to be imo is a max th9 with big defenses and crappy heroes. < 15/15. This means nearly certainly you can't handle a decent th9 base and you are now drawing at least a strong th9 that someone else has to deal with. If you find yourself at max th9 with low heroes by all means hit that th10 button. Yesterday. If you intend to max heroes at th9 then stay awhile.
Quattro was almost all early TH9 when I left and we'd draw mostly max TH9s even with 2-3 of ours without xbows.Yeah, this is not really an issue for fbgs anymore. We are majority TH10 now. And our heroes are starting to trend towards the beefy range. We are staring at maybe 10 Level 30 queens shortly? Probably have 3 max queens inside of a month, maybe more.
A clan with early th9 it's a different story. You can get just curbstomped under the current system. There's just no practical way to give us an overmatch except in regards to heroes, and we are about to be immune to that too.
Because you can simply bully th9 with th10 troops and the game is agnostic to this development except for a tiny weight bump (250) for the th which is less than half a single xbow level.How does moving to TH10 solve the issue of drawing a tougher opponent than you can handle?The worst place to be imo is a max th9 with big defenses and crappy heroes. < 15/15. This means nearly certainly you can't handle a decent th9 base and you are now drawing at least a strong th9 that someone else has to deal with. If you find yourself at max th9 with low heroes by all means hit that th10 button. Yesterday. If you intend to max heroes at th9 then stay awhile.