Tau837
Footballguy
Of course every team would prefer 0 returns. But the results were fine, bottom line. It is mild criticism at best.
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***2015 San Diego Chargers - Offseason News, Notes, & Analysis*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
So you think the Chargers will not likely want Rivers and/or Weddle after the 2015 season? If the team thinks that, I agree the team shouldn't extend them. But I have a hard time believing the team and most fans agree with that.
Let me put it this way. If Rivers isn't the QB in 2016, who is?
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yes, optimum would be 0% returns. Novak kickoffs were returned 87% of the time. My bottom line criticism was a kicker could be found that was payed less than $600k and their kickoffs would be returned somewhere within the sliver between those two.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Based on how beat up a 33yo Rivers was by the end of the season last year I can't say with any certainty that he will make it through 2015. As of today I think SD has one NFL quality starting lineman. Based on the protection the team has put in front of him the past several years my hopes aren't as high as they probably should be they are going to significantly change that. He'll turn 35 during the 2016 season and I have no idea what his health will look like at that point.
cstu
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Just to be clear, it seems you are advocating to let it ride with his contract, see how he plays in 2015, and then sign him if warranted. Is that right?
Do you expect the team will keep him beyond 2015? If yes, doesn't it then make sense to extend him and gain more cap space to use while they still have him? Odds are that when Rivers no longer starts for the Chargers, they will go through an extended period of lousy QB play before they find another good QB.
Rivers is among the very best Chargers of all time, in the group with Alworth, LT, Winslow, Fouts, and Seau, in no particular order. I think an argument can be made that he is the best Chargers player of all time. I think there is virtually no chance the Chargers will not keep him beyond next season, unless he decides to retire, which seems unlikely. I do not expect to ever see Rivers play for another team.
Anyone who goes along with that premise should be 100% in favor of the team extending his contract to provide immediate cap relief that can be used to improve the team in the short term.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
I am saying he's under contract through the age of 34 and being paid handsomely. I agree he's one of the greatest Chargers of all time, which is the reason I disagree the team is going to reap a lot of cap relief by extending his contract unless you are talking about a very long contract and you want to feel the pain later, toward the end of his contract when he is contributing to the team much less if at all.
As far as signing him for the 2016 season.... they can just franchise him in 2016 if they want. He's already making roughly franchise $ now. That means they can keep him through the age of 35 before they even need to sign him to an extension to retain his services. Will he still be playing like a franchise QB @36yo? Who knows? Dan Marino's last franchise quality year was at the age of 33. Joe Montana's last franchise quality year was at the age of 34. Neither of those guys got beat up nearly as bad as Rivers imo. Rivers has started the last 144 games in a row for the Chargers behind some of the worst offensive lines in the league and that's admirable. But that punishment also adds up at some point, as we saw the last half of the season.
If it were up to me as the GM the team would sign 3 OLman in FA and draft 2 more OLman in the first three rounds of the draft to give him every chance to be successful at this stage of his career. Since 2009 this team has been +/- 1 game of a .500 team every year. If two more seasons go by and SD is just a .500 team that struggles mightily just to make the playoffs then I'm not convinced that Rivers in his late 30's for franchise QB $ is likely the best direction to go. If SD makes major steps(double digit wins and at least an AFC title game) in those two years I have no problem with SD giving him an extension as a reward.
There will be life after Rivers. Some people think they shouldn't put any resources in developing another QB but I think that's a mistake as well. I thought SD should have drafted one of the QB's that fell last year or sign a younger backup. People laughed at the thought of Mark Sanchez getting another chance. Zack Mettenberger was a 6th round draft choice. This year I've heard very, very little buzz about a guy like Jake Locker but I'd love to see him brought in to develop behind Rivers. As I've already said for more than a year if SD seems content to "go to war" with dregs as starting OLman they have been really lucky they haven't needed someone to come in already. As bad as the OL was last season that was with Dunlap/Fluker starting all 32 games. Just imagine the horror show if either of those guys would have missed extended time.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Where would you spend their FA $ MT? I don't just mean positions but actual names of players... or even just tiers of comparable players.
Are there names in the draft you are interested in?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
So I see a blurb about maybe moving to LA again.
One day this is probably going to happen
One day this is probably going to happen
Tau837
Footballguy
Rivers' cap number is $17.4M next season, on a salary of $15.75M. Say they extended him by two years and fully guaranteed his contract in exchange for him agreeing to making $16M, $17M, $18M in the next three seasons. Give him a $9M signing bonus this year and a $7M base salary. That means his cap numbers the next three seasons would be $10M, $20M, $21M.BoltBacker said:
In your scenario, they potentially tag him for 2016. That means his cap number the next two years would be something like $17.4M and $17-18M, and who knows about 2017. Or he plays well in 2015 and they resign him, anyway, probably for longer than two more years.
I'm sure there are more details involved, but you get the idea of what I'm saying. Wouldn't it be a good thing to have an extra $5M-$7M under the 2015 cap, while only committing a couple more years to Rivers, which is very likely anyway?
Your comments about Sanchez, Locker, et al. are exactly what I was getting at in terms of QB play after Rivers. Sure, it's possible a guy like that could turn out to be really good, but it is much more likely there will be a significant dropoff after he is gone. Thus it is appropriate to go all in now and try to maximize success in the time he has left.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
This is where we disagree.
If SD was close to winning a SB I would agree with going all in on 2015. SD is nowhere close to $5-$7mil from being a realistic SB favorite imo. Is that amount worth GUARANTEEING any player on the roster $41 million over 2016/2017. Even if this wasn't football, and even if Rivers wasn't going to be in his mid 30's over that span, and even if Rivers hadn't just limped through the last half of the season after being killed behind a line that may not be any better this year than it was last I don't think that's a reasonable risk to take.
Tau837
Footballguy
I didn't say having that extra cap money would make them a SB favorite. Where did that come from?
I think I have made myself clear. I fully expect Rivers to be the Chargers QB for at least 3 more seasons. Given that, IMO it is a nobrainer to extend him now to gain a near term cap advantage. You seem to think there is a much lesser chance that Rivers will be their QB for 3 more seasons. Given that perspective, I understand why you might not agree with extending him. Of course, you have been off the Rivers bandwagon for quite some time.
Anyone else want to weigh in on this?
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Tau837
Footballguy
What do you think his appropriate overall compensation should be? The overall compensation I suggested in my previous post was an average of $17M per year. His cap hit over the last 4 years of his current contract averages $15.8M.
Do you think he should play for the same or less than he has been making?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Oh, no. I was saying that for ME to guarantee a player more than $50mil to gain ~$6mil of cap space for next season it would only make sense to me if I thought that money was the tipping point to winning the SB.I didn't say having that extra cap money would make them a SB favorite. Where did that come from?
Also, I think Rivers is a great player and one of the best Chargers I've ever seen. I am a fan. Fouts was a great QB too. Brees, while his best years weren't in SD, was also one of the better QB's SD has ever had. I doubt very much a March Sanchez will ever be a Fouts/Rivers/Brees type. But it's a fact that those three great QB's started for a majority of 26 Charger seasons, while Stan Humphries started only 6 seasons for the Chargers. Humphries brought the Chargers to more SB games than the other three combined. The point isn't that Humphries is the best of that group, but the best team may not be the one that has the best QB and Mark Sanchez absolutely could be a Stan Humphries imo. The doomsday scenario of Rivers eventually not being the Chargers QB is definitely overstated.
Rivers 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 93.8
Salary - $16.7mil
Sanchez 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 88.4
Salary - $2.3mil
I think you are acting like the difference between the production of these two players is the grand canyon. Perhaps most importantly Sanchez is (4-2) in the playoffs over his career at the age of 28 while Rivers is (4-5) at the age of 33. The point isn't SD needs to rush out and acquire Sanchez at any cost and discard Rivers, it's simply that there are other QB options that have been available in the very recent past and there will be options available in the future.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
That's the other problem with all these numbers, but I didn't want to get into it before.
Rivers will be making almost $17.5 this year and players/agents never see the end coming so I'm sure he and his agent plan on making over $18+mil in 2016 and probably $20mil in 2017 so I'm not sure if he'd even accept $51mil over the next three years. They would likely expect considerably more(25%?) than Jay Cutler over that span for instance, and CHI is having trouble just coming out and announcing him as the unquestionable starter. I think SD would be in a better negotiating position in 2017 than they are now UNLESS SD far outplays their recent history... in which case Rivers deserves the big raise. I have no problem paying guys for production. I do have a problem locking in an aging guy to $17-$20mil/season for ~.500 record seasons.
The two biggest obstacles to success in the NFL imo is bad drafting and cap space that doesn't contribute on the field. SD finally got Gaither/Cox/Meacham off their books after they accounted for more than $11.5mil in 2014.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
ANYWAY......... They could have ~$30mil to play with even if they don't extend Rivers so how would we like to see that $ spent?
I'll boil it down to the 4 positions they really need to get filled before the draft:
LT
NT
C
CB
If they only sign four guys I hope it will be those four guys. You don't want to start a rookie LT with an immobile QB. The only NT that would change the entire defense on day 1 would be Shelton and he will likely be long gone by SD's first pick. The rookie C's this year aren't as good as the C's available last year and SD didn't appear interested last year. Verrett is practically still a rookie himself so you probably don't want two rookie starters at CB.
What are the names you guys are hoping for? Kind of hard to guess what the $ will be for those positions.
I'll boil it down to the 4 positions they really need to get filled before the draft:
LT
NT
C
CB
If they only sign four guys I hope it will be those four guys. You don't want to start a rookie LT with an immobile QB. The only NT that would change the entire defense on day 1 would be Shelton and he will likely be long gone by SD's first pick. The rookie C's this year aren't as good as the C's available last year and SD didn't appear interested last year. Verrett is practically still a rookie himself so you probably don't want two rookie starters at CB.
What are the names you guys are hoping for? Kind of hard to guess what the $ will be for those positions.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Ugghhhhh....
"Chargers general manager Tom Telesco said Wednesday that for now, D.J. Fluker will remain at right tackle. The expectation going into this offseason is second-year pro Chris Watt will get the first shot at replacing recently retired center Nick Hardwick. "
http://espn.go.com/blog/san-diego-chargers
"Chargers general manager Tom Telesco said Wednesday that for now, D.J. Fluker will remain at right tackle. The expectation going into this offseason is second-year pro Chris Watt will get the first shot at replacing recently retired center Nick Hardwick. "
http://espn.go.com/blog/san-diego-chargers
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO Dunlap and Flowers should be strongly considered for LT and CB, as long as they don't price themselves out.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Well, you got your wish with Dunlap. Hard to say if he priced himself out of the market until we see how the $28mil over 4 years actually work out. I have a bad feeling we've been through this before, though. A long time veteran that has bounced around a bit plays the best football of his career right before the biggest contract year of his life. SD, perpetually in a position of desperation for a starting quality LT, pays the guy more than he's been paid the rest of his career combined. Hopefully, they learned some lesson from the Gaither contract.
Despite FBG's analysis, "The Chargers have turned their offensive line around, and it has gone from a weakness to a strength in only a couple of years." LMAO I hope Charger fans don't forget that this is the OL that was ranked 29th in the league according to ProFootballFocus...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/01/08/2014-pff-offensive-line-rankings/
Not saying I hate the move but let's hope the plan is still to improve the line. I would LOVE to see SD sign Michael Roos to a 1 or 2 year contract. Roos as the starter at LT, Dunlap backs up Roos at LT. Dunlap the starter at RT, Fluker backs up Dunlap at RT. Fluker starts at RG. It would be the first time I can remember the SD OL would have a little bit of depth and the wheels don't come off after the first injury. Expecting 5 positions to start 80 games is ridiculous
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Go sign Iupati now for a G spot,
Tau837
Footballguy
Quoting BB's post keeps screwing up, so responding without quoting.
Dunlap was San Diego's lineman of the year. I expect he would have gotten similar contract offers from multiple other teams had he reached free agency. Sure, there is risk in signing him for 4 years, $28M. But there is risk in signing any free agent or drafting any player. In this case, it seems like a reasonable risk.
Agree that they still need quite a bit of work on the OL. I'd love to see them sign at least one more free agent OL.
Dunlap was San Diego's lineman of the year. I expect he would have gotten similar contract offers from multiple other teams had he reached free agency. Sure, there is risk in signing him for 4 years, $28M. But there is risk in signing any free agent or drafting any player. In this case, it seems like a reasonable risk.
Agree that they still need quite a bit of work on the OL. I'd love to see them sign at least one more free agent OL.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Nothing but love for you BB, but this is beyond insane. There is a Grand Canyon between Rivers and Sanchez at this point. The fact that you view them as similar player is mind boggling.Oh, no. I was saying that for ME to guarantee a player more than $50mil to gain ~$6mil of cap space for next season it would only make sense to me if I thought that money was the tipping point to winning the SB.I didn't say having that extra cap money would make them a SB favorite. Where did that come from?
Also, I think Rivers is a great player and one of the best Chargers I've ever seen. I am a fan. Fouts was a great QB too. Brees, while his best years weren't in SD, was also one of the better QB's SD has ever had. I doubt very much a March Sanchez will ever be a Fouts/Rivers/Brees type. But it's a fact that those three great QB's started for a majority of 26 Charger seasons, while Stan Humphries started only 6 seasons for the Chargers. Humphries brought the Chargers to more SB games than the other three combined. The point isn't that Humphries is the best of that group, but the best team may not be the one that has the best QB and Mark Sanchez absolutely could be a Stan Humphries imo. The doomsday scenario of Rivers eventually not being the Chargers QB is definitely overstated.
Rivers 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 93.8
Salary - $16.7mil
Sanchez 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 88.4
Salary - $2.3mil
I think you are acting like the difference between the production of these two players is the grand canyon. Perhaps most importantly Sanchez is (4-2) in the playoffs over his career at the age of 28 while Rivers is (4-5) at the age of 33. The point isn't SD needs to rush out and acquire Sanchez at any cost and discard Rivers, it's simply that there are other QB options that have been available in the very recent past and there will be options available in the future.
Tau837
Footballguy
Nothing but love for you BB, but this is beyond insane. There is a Grand Canyon between Rivers and Sanchez at this point. The fact that you view them as similar player is mind boggling.Oh, no. I was saying that for ME to guarantee a player more than $50mil to gain ~$6mil of cap space for next season it would only make sense to me if I thought that money was the tipping point to winning the SB.I didn't say having that extra cap money would make them a SB favorite. Where did that come from?
Also, I think Rivers is a great player and one of the best Chargers I've ever seen. I am a fan. Fouts was a great QB too. Brees, while his best years weren't in SD, was also one of the better QB's SD has ever had. I doubt very much a March Sanchez will ever be a Fouts/Rivers/Brees type. But it's a fact that those three great QB's started for a majority of 26 Charger seasons, while Stan Humphries started only 6 seasons for the Chargers. Humphries brought the Chargers to more SB games than the other three combined. The point isn't that Humphries is the best of that group, but the best team may not be the one that has the best QB and Mark Sanchez absolutely could be a Stan Humphries imo. The doomsday scenario of Rivers eventually not being the Chargers QB is definitely overstated.
Rivers 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 93.8
Salary - $16.7mil
Sanchez 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 88.4
Salary - $2.3mil
I think you are acting like the difference between the production of these two players is the grand canyon. Perhaps most importantly Sanchez is (4-2) in the playoffs over his career at the age of 28 while Rivers is (4-5) at the age of 33. The point isn't SD needs to rush out and acquire Sanchez at any cost and discard Rivers, it's simply that there are other QB options that have been available in the very recent past and there will be options available in the future.
I don't have a horse in this race, but where did he say they are similar players? He was just providing an example of a cheaper option that wouldn't necessarily be a huge drop off.Nothing but love for you BB, but this is beyond insane. There is a Grand Canyon between Rivers and Sanchez at this point. The fact that you view them as similar player is mind boggling.Oh, no. I was saying that for ME to guarantee a player more than $50mil to gain ~$6mil of cap space for next season it would only make sense to me if I thought that money was the tipping point to winning the SB.I didn't say having that extra cap money would make them a SB favorite. Where did that come from?
Also, I think Rivers is a great player and one of the best Chargers I've ever seen. I am a fan. Fouts was a great QB too. Brees, while his best years weren't in SD, was also one of the better QB's SD has ever had. I doubt very much a March Sanchez will ever be a Fouts/Rivers/Brees type. But it's a fact that those three great QB's started for a majority of 26 Charger seasons, while Stan Humphries started only 6 seasons for the Chargers. Humphries brought the Chargers to more SB games than the other three combined. The point isn't that Humphries is the best of that group, but the best team may not be the one that has the best QB and Mark Sanchez absolutely could be a Stan Humphries imo. The doomsday scenario of Rivers eventually not being the Chargers QB is definitely overstated.
Rivers 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 93.8
Salary - $16.7mil
Sanchez 2014
Winning % - 56%
QB Rating - 88.4
Salary - $2.3mil
I think you are acting like the difference between the production of these two players is the grand canyon. Perhaps most importantly Sanchez is (4-2) in the playoffs over his career at the age of 28 while Rivers is (4-5) at the age of 33. The point isn't SD needs to rush out and acquire Sanchez at any cost and discard Rivers, it's simply that there are other QB options that have been available in the very recent past and there will be options available in the future.
I think what he's saying is that while Rivers has been very good for SD, he hasn't been good enough to bring them to the SB. There is a finite pool of money in the NFL, any maybe they would be better off allocating a smaller portion of their money to Rivers and more towards upgrading other positions.
So, the comparison shouldn't be Rivers vs. a Sanchez-type, it's Rivers and their current squad to a Sanchez-type and the players they could add with the extra ~$15mil per. I think it's a reasonable consideration.
Tau837
Footballguy
My first choice would be to extend Rivers. (Well, my first choice would be to trade a late-round pick for Andrew Luck, but let's stick with what's realistic.) My second choice would be to sign a free agent who could become a competent starter ... but I don't think there are any. Maybe Jake Locker. My third choice would be to sign someone who could at least be a decent backup. My fourth choice would be Mark Sanchez.
Tau837
Footballguy
I assume Dunlap's contract included a non-trivial signing bonus, meaning his 2015 cap figure should be well below $7M. I will assume $5M.
That means the Chargers have just under $25M available under the 2015 cap with Johnson's retirement and Dunlap's resigning. That number already assumes $4.5M goes to rookies.
My revised wish list:
1. Resign Flowers, DE Mathews, Gachkar, and Ajirotutu (cheap).
2. Extend Rivers and Weddle to free up more cap space. The savings here should be enough to cover resigning these players.
3. Sign a quality free agent OL.
4. Sign a quality free agent DL.
5. Sign a veteran RB who can run the ball 200+ times next season. (And who we actually want to run it that many times.) This could be Ryan Mathews.
6. Sign a quality free agent WR who will start and push Floyd to #3 on the depth chart.
7. Cut Donald Brown to regain $2M in cap space. (I don't expect them to do this.)
8. Let all other free agents walk. Note: this assumes Watt is not starting at center but rather at guard, meaning he provides depth at center. If he is the starter, probably have to keep Legursky or Robinson for depth.
9. Draft at least 1-2 OL, 1-2 DL, 1 CB, and 1 S. And/or possibly sign another inexpensive veteran or two at these positions.
10. This leaves LB in the hands of ILBs Butler, Teo, Conner, and Walker and OLBs Ingram, Attaouchu, Williams, and Law. Not an area of strength but hopefully Nolan can coach them up.
All four of the bolded items should be easily doable with $25M (+$2M for Donald Brown if they cut him). The fact that I'd like to see them sign 4 quality free agents plus resign the players named is why I think they need to restructure Rivers and Weddle. If they don't do that, they have to give up on some of this. The quality free agent WR would have to go, at minimum, and it would reduce how high they could go on the other positions.
That means the Chargers have just under $25M available under the 2015 cap with Johnson's retirement and Dunlap's resigning. That number already assumes $4.5M goes to rookies.
My revised wish list:
1. Resign Flowers, DE Mathews, Gachkar, and Ajirotutu (cheap).
2. Extend Rivers and Weddle to free up more cap space. The savings here should be enough to cover resigning these players.
3. Sign a quality free agent OL.
4. Sign a quality free agent DL.
5. Sign a veteran RB who can run the ball 200+ times next season. (And who we actually want to run it that many times.) This could be Ryan Mathews.
6. Sign a quality free agent WR who will start and push Floyd to #3 on the depth chart.
7. Cut Donald Brown to regain $2M in cap space. (I don't expect them to do this.)
8. Let all other free agents walk. Note: this assumes Watt is not starting at center but rather at guard, meaning he provides depth at center. If he is the starter, probably have to keep Legursky or Robinson for depth.
9. Draft at least 1-2 OL, 1-2 DL, 1 CB, and 1 S. And/or possibly sign another inexpensive veteran or two at these positions.
10. This leaves LB in the hands of ILBs Butler, Teo, Conner, and Walker and OLBs Ingram, Attaouchu, Williams, and Law. Not an area of strength but hopefully Nolan can coach them up.
All four of the bolded items should be easily doable with $25M (+$2M for Donald Brown if they cut him). The fact that I'd like to see them sign 4 quality free agents plus resign the players named is why I think they need to restructure Rivers and Weddle. If they don't do that, they have to give up on some of this. The quality free agent WR would have to go, at minimum, and it would reduce how high they could go on the other positions.
Bucky86
Footballguy
I think re-signing Flowers should be a top priority. When Verrett was healthy, he and Flowers formed a pretty nasty duo.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Exactly the point I was trying to make. Last season SD spent $16.7mil for Rivers, ~$7.9mil on their starting OL (players that actually played), and $4.7mil on their DL starters.
Would SD had made the playoffs with Sanchez and all that extra money spent on OL and DL? I can't claim that I know they would have but the chances would have been decent imo. We can't know for sure. What we CAN know for sure is Rivers(starting all 16 games) with a bad OL and a bad DL was NOT a playoff team. We know that with 100% certainty.
I guess to some people a QB rating of 88.4 vs 93.8 is a Grand Canyon of difference. (Shrug) I don't agree. If that puts me on an island of one I can accept and understand that.
I don't understand why it's controversial to assume that Rivers will likely tail off in his mid-30's. IMO they should pay him $17+mil this year and give him the best opportunity to earn $18+mil next year. I guess that makes me a "hater"?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, I agree.
They are just desperate at LT and Roos is still undecided about retiring and coming off an injury. Bulaga has played some LT but given his age will probably be given a bigger contract. Plus, he has his own injury history. It's telling that many in the GB thread aren't that worried about losing him. As far as LT's go there isn't a lot more to choose from in FA.
There are plenty of OT's available in the draft, but very few of those will be ready to start at LT in '15. Most are being talked about as a RT or OG early in their career.
I have to eat a lot of crow when it comes to Dunlap playing better than I expected. Outside of Dunlap the situation is so dire the money is likely well spent.
The next position that has to be filled on OL in FA has to be center. I didn't think Watt was very dependable at C last year. There are a half dozen FA's that would be an upgrade from Watt imo. In the draft people are talking about Erving being a week 1 starter in the NFL at C but you would have draft him in the first round to be sure to get him. He might be available later but you would be leaving it up to chance. Dismukes/Grasu would likely be available later in the draft but at least in the beginning they wouldn't be a big upgrade from Watt.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I think Locker is the perfect backup. Team first, great attitude guy with all the physical tools to grow into an NFL starter. In the current NFL people give up on these guys way too early imo.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, but the more I read it seems like plenty of teams were interested in Flowers when he left KC last season but he was released so late few teams had the cap space to bring him in. I fear that his salary is going to more than double this year. What salary would you feel comfortable paying Flowers?
There are several CB's available in FA(not as good as Flowers but probably much cheaper), and quite a few should be available in the middle of the draft. The team needs a minimum of two but I would prefer if they picked up three total. Maybe pay up for Flowers and draft two between the 3rd-5th. Or sign two lesser CB FA's and hope one of the better ones drops to the 2nd? Right now it's Verrett and Williams. We aren't sure Verrett's build will hold up to the NFL yet and I'm not sure I want Williams to even make the roster.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
With regard to JWB's point #6 above, with Royal apparently gone and Malcom age 34, there's not much currently on the expected 2015 roster beyond K Allen other than Inman.
I have the advantage of being JWB's team mate in a league and am able to get his thoughts directly, but I'm wondering what everyone thinks of Inman's 2015 role and especially production if they don't nail down a premium free agent, and the odds they choose instead to develop a 3rd rounder from the draft? I know Inman opened some eyes at the end of the season, but am also aware his production was while K Allen was out. I'd also be appreciative of any other thoughts on Inman that would help decide whether his upside is worth keeping him through the offseason of if he ought to be an early cut during the rookie draft process.
I have the advantage of being JWB's team mate in a league and am able to get his thoughts directly, but I'm wondering what everyone thinks of Inman's 2015 role and especially production if they don't nail down a premium free agent, and the odds they choose instead to develop a 3rd rounder from the draft? I know Inman opened some eyes at the end of the season, but am also aware his production was while K Allen was out. I'd also be appreciative of any other thoughts on Inman that would help decide whether his upside is worth keeping him through the offseason of if he ought to be an early cut during the rookie draft process.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
3. Would love Roos and/or Hudson
4. Would love Knighton. During the college season I was tracking Shelton pretty closely because I felt his presence would make Liuget/Reyes/Butler/Teo SOOOOO much better the minute he stepped on the field but it seems the whole world has Shelton being drafted in the top 10 right now. I also like Phillips in the draft but kind of like Erving he's being projected so many places throughout the draft you would probably have to take him to early to make sure you get him.
5.Did you hear the people asking the question, "Should the Chargers franchise Mathews or Flowers?". Pretty sure I threw up in my mouth a little. I assume those are the same "experts" that project SD drafting a RB in the middle of the first round. Cheap FA and/or late draft pick for a guy that's just a part of a fairly big RBBC. Discount FA or LATE draft pick here.
6. Who? I've seen people suggest Shorts and I don't like that very much. If Crabtree has to sign a Nicks-type prove-it deal I'd be happy about that if SD payed him. For that matter Nicks will practically be free after he didn't prove it. Nate Washington or Ted Ginn might be cheap guys that could replace Royal. Bring in a LATE rookie WR to compete for the slot role. Bargain bin guys here if you ask me.
OL/DL are the two positions I'd pay real $. After the top tier of CB, the second tier goes down in price FAST and sometimes pays off.
cstu
Footballguy
I have a difficult time putting confidence in a 26 year old receiver with 12 career catches, however I like his chances to do well. Not too excited about him for fantasy, but he could be valuable for the Bolts.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
He's a 26 year old WR with 12 career catches because he was busy with 100-1542-11 in the CFL for two years. It's not like he's been riding the pine in NFL obscurity somewhere. I recognize the CFL doesn't often translate, but the end of 2014 games with SD were good to see so I'm wondering what the consensus is on him. Thanks for your thoughts cstu, always good to get your input.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
True, but he's a nice lottery ticket to hold in fantasy.
If SD didn't bring anyone else in(and let's face it there are a ton more holes to fill than wr) his value jumps a great deal. Then just imagine the slightest injury to Allen or even Gates.... He would have high trade value on potential alone. Given his cost he seems like as good a super deep sleeper as there is.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Wow, I've gone from we'll wait and see how the contract is structured, to agree it was a good move, to great move by Telesco and probably one of the more important moves he's made since he's been in SD.
Roos announced his retirement today so there really aren't any other starting LT's in FA or starting LT's(from day 1 at least) in the draft. They really dodged a bullet choosing to not let him hit the open market.
Also, I recently read Hudson wants $7+mil/season so I am very glad they chose to spend on Dunlap and still have plenty of options for value centers on the FA market. They can sign two C/G's for less than Hudson is seeking.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Saw ESPN's McShay had Ereck Flowers, 6'6, 330 lbs RT from Miami going two picks after our pick. If he's there when we pick, he's be get to anchor the right side, moving Fluker inside. Two tanks on that side would do wonders for the running game.
If Beckham is there at 17, he has to be a consideration.
If Beckham is there at 17, he has to be a consideration.
Tau837
Footballguy
Per this article, San Diego is one of the bottom 10 teams across all major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) in terms of use of analytics. Overall, I like Telesco and McCoy, but I think this is a mistake.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I'm with you 'Gunz when it comes to Flowers. Or Peat. Or Collins. Or Clemmings. One of those guys should be available at #17.
- I think in a perfect world WR's and edge rushers fly off the board in the first half of the draft and somehow, someway Danny Shelton is available at pick #17. About 99% of the known universe are predicting he'll be gone at #7 to CHI but this could be a surprising draft.
- If Shelton is gone my #2 option would be trade down. They can still get a starting OLman at the end of the first or maybe even top of the second round. They might have to settle for the Fisher/Humphries/Erving types but they would all start as well. Maybe even take a NT first, then OLman with their own 2nd rounder because quality NT's are so rare. Everyone says, "Sure, it's a lot easier to SAY trade down than it actually is to trade down"... yet Seattle and NE don't seem to have a problem finding trade partners. Why are those two names familiar?
- Stay at #17 and just draft Flowers/Peat/Collins/Clemmings. For the most part Telesco has just taken the best player at position of greatest need.
I am almost afraid to ask, who did McShay have SD drafting in the first? Please don't say RB. I have seen far too many mocks with SD drafting a RB in the first. I wouldn't care if they reach for a C, or a NT, SS, or even a CB.... just don't draft a RB that early. People are talking about Ridley accepting a deal for just over $1mil with incentives and SD would burn an early draft pick on a RB?!
Completely disagree with you about Beckham.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
I know it comes off as a fanboy fascinated by the fancy new toy in FA, but Andre Johnson would kind of be a perfect fit in SD imo. He spoke about wanting the opportunity to continue to be productive being a big reason he wanted to leave HOU. The losing obviously had to get to him.
NE - Wouldn't be the #1 receiver with Gronk there, plus Brady will be 38 next year so the end is coming, also have little to no money to pay him.
SEA - He just doesn't seem like a great fit to me based on the receivers they typically use, plus may be cap poor after securing Wilson and Lynch/RB which are the real keys to their success.
INDY - May be using most of their cap space to get Murray, and a couple of the top defensive players to compliment the offense that is already clicking.
CAR - Makes sense but the team is trending down towards 3,000 passing yards per season. With Benjamin/Olsen already there what is the max amount of the pie to anyone new?
PIT - Great fit but salary cap hell.
DEN - See NE, but chances are the wheels will be coming off sooner.
SD - Would be the #1 receiver the day he stepped on the field, probably has as much cap space to spend as any of the other playoff caliber(with Johnson at least) teams, Rivers is younger than Brady/Manning and an upgrade from anyone Johnson has played with before, SD is a pass heavy team with 4,000 yards a starting point.
Rivers loves throwing to big, athletic receivers and is willing to throw the ball up and let them make plays... especially near the endzone. I would bet Johnson breaks double digits in TD for the first time in his career. Two year contract allows the franchise to make a short run with Rivers/Johnson/Gates before they are all gone. Might get enough excitement around the team to pass a stadium vote.
I still think that this would be a great time to buy in on Michael Crabtree on a longer term contract, but I could understand chasing Johnson on the short term as well. SD will probably lose out on a lot of guys because of those teams that have $50mil and likely just want paydays(Flowers/Knighton/Hudson).
NE - Wouldn't be the #1 receiver with Gronk there, plus Brady will be 38 next year so the end is coming, also have little to no money to pay him.
SEA - He just doesn't seem like a great fit to me based on the receivers they typically use, plus may be cap poor after securing Wilson and Lynch/RB which are the real keys to their success.
INDY - May be using most of their cap space to get Murray, and a couple of the top defensive players to compliment the offense that is already clicking.
CAR - Makes sense but the team is trending down towards 3,000 passing yards per season. With Benjamin/Olsen already there what is the max amount of the pie to anyone new?
PIT - Great fit but salary cap hell.
DEN - See NE, but chances are the wheels will be coming off sooner.
SD - Would be the #1 receiver the day he stepped on the field, probably has as much cap space to spend as any of the other playoff caliber(with Johnson at least) teams, Rivers is younger than Brady/Manning and an upgrade from anyone Johnson has played with before, SD is a pass heavy team with 4,000 yards a starting point.
Rivers loves throwing to big, athletic receivers and is willing to throw the ball up and let them make plays... especially near the endzone. I would bet Johnson breaks double digits in TD for the first time in his career. Two year contract allows the franchise to make a short run with Rivers/Johnson/Gates before they are all gone. Might get enough excitement around the team to pass a stadium vote.
I still think that this would be a great time to buy in on Michael Crabtree on a longer term contract, but I could understand chasing Johnson on the short term as well. SD will probably lose out on a lot of guys because of those teams that have $50mil and likely just want paydays(Flowers/Knighton/Hudson).
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Really? I just kind of assumed that's what is going to happen no matter where he goes. Nobody is going to pay that salary, including MIN imo. Any RB expecting to get paid needs to be realistic with the possible exception of D.Murray who had his career year at the perfect time and is still young.
When I heard the report I was just thinking it was funny they could probably surround Rivers with a 2012 All-Pro team of skill players and just draft OLman in the first half of the draft if they really wanted to...
RB - Peterson(It's either MIN or less money elsewhere)
WR - Johnson(Either chase the playoffs OR make $, but given his last few years I assume the $ is less important to him)
slot WR - Welker(due for a HUGE paycut wherever he lands)
TE - Gates(Last year of his contract)
I'm not saying that's what they SHOULD do. I would much prefer signing Crabtree and Ridley to long term deals at buy-low-incentive deals and trade down in the draft. If they went for they did go for the short term one or two year push I would definitely want all those contracts off the books at 2017 so if it didn't work you could completely reboot with Dunlap/Butler the only two big contracts left on the roster.
