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Ran a 10k - Official Thread (3 Viewers)

I just looked at several of the local news station weather reports. All referenced rain, but none mention T-storms. Weather.com does have t-storms in their report. Timing on it moving through could change a lot in 5 days. 

 
ChiefD said:
Thunderstorms for Carmel on Saturday morning. Bummer.
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Yeah, right now I'm seeing temps in the upper 40s/low 50s with an 84% chance of rain and 11mph SSW wind.

Def not PR weather... :kicksrock:

That's the one thing I hate about this sport.  You train your ### off for 3 months, and there's this one hugely important variable over which you have ZERO control that can totally F it up.

 
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gruecd said:
Typically delay the start and wait for it to blow over...
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What the forecast has now is thunderstorms between 5:00 and 7:00 and then again after 11:00.  If it's just one patch early, delay makes sense but not otherwise.  

Anyway, as mentioned, forecasts change.  We'll see. However, if there is a chance it's going to be cancelled, I'm skipping it.

 
Juxtatarot said:
What the forecast has now is thunderstorms between 5:00 and 7:00 and then again after 11:00.  If it's just one patch early, delay makes sense but not otherwise.  

Anyway, as mentioned, forecasts change.  We'll see. However, if there is a chance it's going to be cancelled, I'm skipping it.
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They will do EVERYTHING in their power to not cancel it.  It's very rare that races get canceled.

 
This weather news just ruined my day.  I was hoping there might be another Midwest marathon on Sunday to have in my back pocket as a plan B, but no dice...

 
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If the forecast doesn't clear, I might run the marathon in Geneva, IL that I ran last year.  It's April 13.  Course is better anyway.

 
Been doing a little reading on LHR about pacing.  Found an article with this section:

"...slower runners will have a harder time differentiating tempo runs from easy days, especially early on. What I have noticed is that the grey area for prescribing paces occurs about that 4 hour goal mark. This is where things get a little blurry. At this point, runners will sometimes be running their easy runs faster than what their goal marathon pace is. Why? For most folks, their general endurance is going to be their limiting factor. In essence, can they just cover the 26.2 miles and keep it together? So, I don’t necessarily worry about these folks as much because if I can just keep them healthy and putting consistent miles in, then they will run pretty well. "

This is exactly me.  I find myself running my easy runs now at a pace faster than I want to run my May marathon at.  My "pretend" MP is still faster than this but I fabricated that pace just to make the tempo runs feel harder.  I keep a close eye on my HR so that I don't let an easy or long run get into Zone 4 (starts at 143).

So I'm going to keep trucking with the plan and trust in it.  Had a good long run on Sunday (which itself was run at a pace slightly faster than my "true" MP).  HR stayed low (135ish) and under control for the whole thing.  Feeling good.

Also keeping my fingers crossed for weather in Carmel this Saturday.  You guys have been crushing training and deserve your reward.

 
Just throwing this out there....

As a plan B, the major St. Louis Marathon is the next weekend on April 7th.  It's a brand new route that is really pretty and it fixed the elevation challenge that used to be in place.  Starts in Forest Park and ends at the Arch.

The full marathon is also much faster than past courses by starting west and heading east. St. Louis still isn’t flat, but we worked to keep the second half of the marathon much flatter, including a nice section in Tower Grove Park, than it has been. And the last 6 miles of the marathon route are also completely downhill!
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gianmarco said:
Just throwing this out there....

As a plan B, the major St. Louis Marathon is the next weekend on April 7th.  It's a brand new route that is really pretty and it fixed the elevation challenge that used to be in place.  Starts in Forest Park and ends at the Arch.
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Yeah, I've already looked at that one.

The negative is that it's in St. Louis of all places. 

 
Race going through my backyard in Maryland on Sunday is sold out but if you decide you want to bandit a race I can provide accommodations. Hope the forecast clears up. And when does it really storm that early in the morning???

 
But in all seriousness, if Carmel does get cancelled, there is a good chance I run that St. Louis one instead of Garmin. Whoever lays out Garmin's route should be fired. Where they are located there are so many routes they can choose for a nice flat, fast course. They route it through basically the sheeeeetiest suburb in the KC area.

 
bushdocda said:
Race going through my backyard in Maryland on Sunday is sold out but if you decide you want to bandit a race I can provide accommodations. Hope the forecast clears up. And when does it really storm that early in the morning???
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It's unusual, but it can happen in the midwest - just need the right ingredients.  It's going to warm up this week and a system is developing north that's dipping down this weekend.  Those ingredients can develop severe storms regardless of time of day.  The problem right now is the models disagree about where the line's gonna settle this week for warm air - where that line settles will have a significant impact on where the severe storms will develop, and when.

They're probably looking at rain regardless, but storms?  No way of knowing right now.  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and circle back around Wednesday/Thursday and see what model updates are saying.

 
Exhibit A of taper madness is this conversation.

Fellas -- we have all been there and I certainly would do the same thing, but the likelihood of the race being outright cancelled is remote.  Its fine to make a plan B to make you feel a bit better, but I'm guessing the race happens with no thunder at all.  Stay relaxed and prepare as if you are racing this weekend.  You have all put in the work and its almost time to execute.

PS  Will someone bump this post in a couple weeks when I'm freaking out about the Boston weather?  TIA

 
ChiefD said:
But in all seriousness, if Carmel does get cancelled, there is a good chance I run that St. Louis one instead of Garmin. Whoever lays out Garmin's route should be fired. Where they are located there are so many routes they can choose for a nice flat, fast course. They route it through basically the sheeeeetiest suburb in the KC area.
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If you or anyone else decides to run it, there's a chance I'll do the half with you.

 
MAC_32 said:
I'd say low 40's in a steady down pour with a 30 mph head wind for 26.2 hilly miles, but I feel like that'd just trigger some major PTSD oh wait I just did shut up you mass hole.
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Ha ha.

Its hard to imagine, but if the weather was identical to last year, I would seriously consider scrapping it and hitting a pub along the course and drinking the day away.  As much as it was an experience last year, I'm not sure I would want to re-live that one again!

 
gruecd said:
Speaking of Boston, remind me who's all doing it again this year?
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I think it's just you and steel - I got squeezed and the other qualifiers (juxt and pbm) aren't doing it.  If I'm missing a qualifier feel free to reach through your device and smack me.

 
Well, I just wasted a whole morning bellyaching about weather and mapping out backup marathon options in KC and St. Louis. 

Almost time for lunch!  :towelwave:

 
MAC_32 said:
I think it's just you and steel - I got squeezed and the other qualifiers (juxt and pbm) aren't doing it.  If I'm missing a qualifier feel free to reach through your device and smack me.
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Maybe I'm "mis-remembering," but wasn't there someone in the group who's run Boston for charity?

 
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