The Jags starting center, who has graded out as the #7 center per PFF so far this year (he had pretty good ratings both with run blocking and pass blocking) was placed on IR today after getting injured last week. The Jags also promoted Ereck Flowers (the same Ereck Flowers who wasn't good enough to cut it on the two deep for arguably the worst OL in the league, the Giants) to starting LT last week. Their OL is an absolute dumpster fire.
The three upsides:
- Their backup center is Tyler Shatley, who is above average at the position and a pretty good run blocker. He filled in nicely last year and didn't seem to impact Fournette's efficiency much (not that Fournette was ever terribly efficient).
- Their ROS schedule is pretty soft, with matchups @Buffalo, home against Indy (no slouch, but beatable as proven this past week), home against WAS (started the season strong, have been absolute garbage lately), @MIA and @HOU (which are both unremarkable in run defense).
- The majority of Fournette's successful runs (5+ yards or more) came off the LT, so Flowers wasn't as bad as I probably suspected he would be this past weekend. (https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/leonard-fournette/FOU564970/2018/10/carry)
I watched most of the game, so this is all anecdotal, but I didn't think he looked like a world beater yesterday. He looked somewhat hesitant behind the line and didn't run with the same power I'm used to seeing from him. I'm chalking most of that up to him shaking off the rust, but honestly I don't see his efficiency getting a ton better this year.
Bold prediction: His YPC is going to hover between 2.5 and 3.0 YPC the rest of the way, only buoyed by long breaks (he won't gain yards consistently in chunks, like some of the top tier guys are doing right now. He'll be dependent on big plays to lift that YPC stat which won't happen frequently), and he's going to live on volume.
I agree he'll be a locked in starter, but I think expectations will have to be tempered.