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Official Christian McCaffrey Thread

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Well, for better of for worse I'm all in on CMC.  Took him at 1.1 in my rookie draft today.  I had a temptation to go with Kareem hunt after Ware's season ended but I didn't have the balls to pass up on one of the big 4 for him.   The guy RT behind me grabbed hunt at 1.2!  

Heres why I went CMC: 

its a .5ppr dynasty league 

I feel talent wise he is the best of the bunch from college tape and preseason tape.  

High draft pick means the team has more invested in him than say the bengals or vikes have with mixon or cook 

the panthers have the best offense out of the 4 big rbs.   

I view Stewart as just a temporary barrier to CMC getting a feature back workload.  Stewart also gets injured a lot and misses games almost every year.  CMC's presence might actually help preserve Stewart this year but that only means CMC will be used.  

Panthers have the easiest sos for the run game this year compared to the jags, vikes, and bengals.  

Panthers seem to have the best o line out of the bunch. 

Mccaffery will be involved in all phases of the game plan. Whether they are ahead or behind.  

Edited by rickyg
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55 minutes ago, rickyg said:

Well, for better of for worse I'm all in on CMC.  Took him at 1.1 in my rookie draft today.  I had a temptation to go with Kareem hunt after Ware's season ended but I didn't have the balls to pass up on one of the big 4 for him.   The guy RT behind me grabbed hunt at 1.2!  

 

Wait...in a dynasty rookie draft you considered Hunt at 1.01 and he was actually drafted at 1.02? I like Hunt fine, but after months of talent evaluation (which includes actual NFL draft position) a player sees such a huge bump because a marginal talent in front of him gets injured?

Even in my redraft league - which drafted on Saturday after Ware went down on Friday, Hunt went after McCaffrey, Cook, Fournette and Mixon.

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Wait...in a dynasty rookie draft you considered Hunt at 1.01 and he was actually drafted at 1.02? I like Hunt fine, but after months of talent evaluation (which includes actual NFL draft position) a player sees such a huge bump because a marginal talent in front of him gets injured?

Even in my redraft league - which drafted on Saturday after Ware went down on Friday, Hunt went after McCaffrey, Cook, Fournette and Mixon.

I hear you!  Ultimately for me, sanity won out and I picked the more naturally gifted Rb in CMC. But the guy behind me with the 2nd pick went for the back that will help him more in 2017 and probably sacrificed the upside he can get with cook mixon or fournette.  Then again, who the hell knows...Antonio brown was a 6th rd pick.   Arian foster was an UFA if I recall.   Trent Richardson.  Nuff said lol 

What's to say that hunt isn't better than all of them?  It's kind of a crap shoot.   

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In a keep 2, 2QB ppr 10 team league, i grabbed him at the 3.07 as my RB2 this weekend.

In a 10 team ppr auction league, i was able to get him for 9% of my budget as my RB2.

Edited by Run It Up

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On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 3:00 AM, Snorkelson said:

Well, they're white. That's about it.  I guess we could say he plays like a tiny mike Allstot......

Just means he can fit through even more tiny holes.

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I went into a full point PPR auction draft last Sat night with a plan to not pay top dollar for studs. I essentially let the top 20 go away without hardly bidding. Anyhow, ended up with CMC as my second highest paid player ($28 / $220 budget) behind only Gurley ($29). Not saying my plan of 6-7 3/4 rounders is gonna work, but i'm looking forward to him filling up the PPR stat lines this season. I believe!

 

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Some thoughts:

"McCaffrey can't be a lead back." Who cares? How many lead backs are there? Five? Most teams don't have a bellcow RB in the modern NFL. McCaffrey will get plenty of yards and receptions, and he's still likely to score long TDs occasionally even without goalline work. 

"McCaffrey was drafted in the first round, so that tells you how Carolina will use him." No. That tells you how Carolina WANTS to use him. The NFL is littered with highly paid first round picks that were underused for the first couple years of their careers. Carolina will clearly use their new weapon. But don't use McCaffrey's draft position as a direct analog for his percentage of touches. 

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2 hours ago, LittlePhatty said:

Great talent, should get plenty of opportunity. I'm a bit worried about Cam vulturing TDs though.

Yes and Stewart. 

But he's a guy that can make people miss and will get in the end zone from the 15 or 20. 

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6 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

Yes and Stewart. 

But he's a guy that can make people miss and will get in the end zone from the 15 or 20. 

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On 8/28/2017 at 1:00 PM, DocHolliday said:

I am not going to target or reach for CMC but hope he falls to me.  I think he is going to be a PPR monster this season. 

Newton has NEVER been good at throwing to his RB's..I think CM is being over valued just a little. People always love to reach for the new toy coming into the league with  all the hype. I drafted Bush his rookie year,and reached a little that year.I expected a little better #'s that year,and passed on some RB's that would have been much better picks..As long as Stewart and Cam healthy snatching up gl carries,I don't see CM value at where he is being drafted. I do think CM is better than Bush.It drove me nuts when Bush tried to take too many balls to the outside looking for a big play. The NFL is a much faster game than college and have seen too many RB's flop(I DON'T think CM will flop) when they think they can do what they did in college at the NFL level.

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5 minutes ago, Crystalsteam99 said:

Newton has NEVER been good at throwing to his RB's..

They've lined him up wide and in the slot though. 

And is this even true? He completed 51-of-64 (79 percent) to RBs with four TDs in 2015 and 52 for 67 (77 percent) in 2014. I'd have to research - anybody know? - how that compares to league average ?

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13 minutes ago, Crystalsteam99 said:

Newton has NEVER been good at throwing to his RB's..I think CM is being over valued just a little. People always love to reach for the new toy coming into the league with  all the hype. I drafted Bush his rookie year,and reached a little that year.I expected a little better #'s that year,and passed on some RB's that would have been much better picks..As long as Stewart and Cam healthy snatching up gl carries,I don't see CM value at where he is being drafted. I do think CM is better than Bush.It drove me nuts when Bush tried to take too many balls to the outside looking for a big play. The NFL is a much faster game than college and have seen too many RB's flop(I DON'T think CM will flop) when they think they can do what they did in college at the NFL level.

Reggie Bush had 565 rushing yards with 6 TDs and 88 receptions for 742 yards and 2 TDs as a rookie - I'd be happy with that form McCaffrey if I drafted him.

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Bush's numbers listed above would have been RB12/13 numbers in my league that drafts on Monday night...we are going from standard to .5 ppr this year, so it would likely have pushed him into the top 10 when catches are figured in.

I'd expect more rushing yards than 565 (around 700 is what I see) and I would be surprised with 88 catches (hoping for around 70), but I'd take them!

I think the Brian Westbrook comparisons are right on, his combined yardage and catches are going to be where his value lies, because I don't see him being a 1,200+ yd. traditional 10-12 TD guy.

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14 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

probably closer to 13-15

9 carries, 4 receptions a game (5-6 TDs) and close to low-end RB1 production in full-point PPR and doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

Edited by ryno1980

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1 hour ago, Crystalsteam99 said:

Newton has NEVER been good at throwing to his RB's..I think CM is being over valued just a little. People always love to reach for the new toy coming into the league with  all the hype. I drafted Bush his rookie year,and reached a little that year.I expected a little better #'s that year,and passed on some RB's that would have been much better picks..As long as Stewart and Cam healthy snatching up gl carries,I don't see CM value at where he is being drafted. I do think CM is better than Bush.It drove me nuts when Bush tried to take too many balls to the outside looking for a big play. The NFL is a much faster game than college and have seen too many RB's flop(I DON'T think CM will flop) when they think they can do what they did in college at the NFL level.

Panthers homers should really chime in, but I thought the plan was to get Newton to utilize some more short passes this year and have him run a bit less to reduce the amount of hits he takes.

On some of McCaffrey's runs, he reminds me a bit of Emmit Smith. I think he might still be underrated, I think he'll have a pretty big year - like scratching top 12 RB.

Edited by Gr00vus

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3 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Panthers homers should really chime in, but I thought the plan was to get Newton to utilize some more short passes this year and have him run a bit less to reduce the amount of hits he takes.

On some of McCaffrey's runs, he reminds me a bit of Emmit Smith. I think he might still be underrated, I think he'll have a pretty big year - like scratching top 12 RB.

The Panthers have never had a guy or an offense where Cam simply dumps the ball off.  Since drafting Cmac (and Samuels) thats all they have talked about in regards to cam.  Give him more weapons where he can do quick short passes and really open up the offense.  They displayed a bit of this in the preseason but we really saw it on Cams only drive last game.  I think Cmac could easily and I mean easily crack the top 12 RB. 

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He didn't get a lot of love in my snake draft, fell to me in the 5th round which I thought was good value.  It's a 2 QB start league which explains a lot, but I saw backs going before him that were head scratchers (Lynch, for example).  I'm excited to have him as my lead back.

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On 8/30/2017 at 2:17 PM, Statorama said:

He didn't get a lot of love in my snake draft, fell to me in the 5th round which I thought was good value.  It's a 2 QB start league which explains a lot, but I saw backs going before him that were head scratchers (Lynch, for example).  I'm excited to have him as my lead back.

5th is good value, but lead back? Is this PPR? Would not want a rookie as my lead back, even if it was Fournette or Cook who will get more down hill runs, I believe.  

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On 8/29/2017 at 3:01 PM, ryno1980 said:

They've lined him up wide and in the slot though. 

And is this even true? He completed 51-of-64 (79 percent) to RBs with four TDs in 2015 and 52 for 67 (77 percent) in 2014. I'd have to research - anybody know? - how that compares to league average ?

I would like to see where stats for that are, did you get that from a link? Would love to see who throws to RBs most and least. 

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On 8/29/2017 at 4:41 PM, Gr00vus said:

Panthers homers should really chime in, but I thought the plan was to get Newton to utilize some more short passes this year and have him run a bit less to reduce the amount of hits he takes.

On some of McCaffrey's runs, he reminds me a bit of Emmit Smith. I think he might still be underrated, I think he'll have a pretty big year - like scratching top 12 RB.

That is the plan, but those who've watched a lot of Cam can tell you that he has struggled with touch passes / placing a lower velocity floater between layers of a defense.  I also have the perception that the Panthers have not really relied on the screen game since back in the days of Steve Smith so I'm not sure how well their linemen can move out and block in space.  The bigger concern I have with CMC is that the Panthers have a plethora of viable end zone options (Cam, Stewart, Olsen, KB) which will tend to cap CMC's TD production...but he's such a good player that I think investing in him is a solid option in pretty much all formats, possibly excluding standard scoring redraft.

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200 points in 1pt PPR leagues should be the floor, if he stays healthy. I'm not convinced he'll stay healthy, but he will have a high rb2 /low rb1 PPG floor when he is on the field. I can see higher than Woodhead (in his prime)  PPG numbers.

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So odd after seeing him play that there are still so many people convinced that McCaffrey can't possibly be anything more than a Woodhead/Bush CoP type player.  This guy absolutely has the chops to be a lead back and IMO will prove himself to be a better option at RB than Stewart as the season unfolds.

 

I think a Warrick Dunn type career is his floor and a post-2000 Tiki Barber type career is a very real possibility for him.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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38 minutes ago, hardcoredx said:

200 points in 1pt PPR leagues should be the floor, if he stays healthy. I'm not convinced he'll stay healthy, but he will have a high rb2 /low rb1 PPG floor when he is on the field. I can see higher than Woodhead (in his prime)  PPG numbers.

Why is he a health concern? He had 700 some touches at Stanford and missed one career game.

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12 hours ago, Mavis said:

5th is good value, but lead back? Is this PPR? Would not want a rookie as my lead back, even if it was Fournette or Cook who will get more down hill runs, I believe.  

PPR.  Would have went in another direction otherwise.  In non-PPR you could make a case that CMC isn't draftable 

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52 minutes ago, Statorama said:

PPR.  Would have went in another direction otherwise.  In non-PPR you could make a case that CMC isn't draftable 

Not draftable seems crazy. I think this time next season McCaffrey will be a top tier RB1 by the way

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39 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Make it. I want to hear this.

It's the same reasons you wouldn't draft Sproles outside of PPR.  There just isn't enough "oomph" in his game for me to draft him in non-PPR.  In a basic TD league the guy isn't even the 4th best option on his team to cross the goal line.  There's way too much risk that this guy ends up rushing for 600 yards and 4 TDs.  A dude rushing for 50 or so yards a game averaging a TD a month would make him unrosterable IMO.

That said, the guy carries unbelievable value in PPR and you can easily make a case he's a top 15 back in that format.  Full disclosure it's been years since I've played non-PPR, so guys that rush for 50 yards a game and score a TD a month may be more valuable now than they were back then.

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53 minutes ago, Statorama said:

It's the same reasons you wouldn't draft Sproles outside of PPR.

Sproles has been a top-30 RB in non-PPR for 4 out of the last 6 years. That makes him draftable in most leagues.

 

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On 2017-08-26 at 2:15 PM, EBF said:

I'm not going to get into a big debate about it, but trying to color Reggie Bush as a product of the USC system reeks of hindsight bias. He was a dominant force and a Heisman winner. While he always had detractors as an NFL prospect, it was considered a mild shock when Houston passed on him with the #1 pick in the entire draft. That says a lot about how he was viewed at the time. He was a sensation and about as hyped coming into the league as any RB prospect has been in the past 10-15 years.

 

That said, I don't think I ever argued that Bush = McCaffrey or that one is better than the other. If anything, I think my first comment on the matter was just to suggest that they aren't really very alike. The height/weight look similar and they're both versatile backs from the Pac-10/Pac-12, but they play a lot differently. I don't see how citing Reggie Bush's NFL career is that relevant to a discussion of McCaffrey, though I'd also argue that Bush actually had a pretty good pro career (just nowhere near what was expected).

Agree. Would even add that, right now, I'm taking Bush's career or McCaffrey every day and twice on Sunday.  Guy had a decent career. 

McCaffrey is totally unproven.   Looks good, but so do a lot of guys. 

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I like that Statorama trolls the Shark Pool like he trolls the FFA.  Sarah Palin and Christian McCaffery are strange bedfellows but he makes it work.  :thumbup:

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He's the 12th RB off the board in PPR leagues, I feel like he's already being drafted at his ceiling, with not much room for upside.  How much higher then RB12 could he possibly finish the season as?  I don't see him cracking the top 8 at the RB position.  Over hyped at his ADP now, I'll pass.

I'd rather have Kareem Hunt around the same ADP.  Andy Reid has had a top 10 PPR back in like 9 of his 13 seasons as head coach.

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The more comments I read from mccaffery's detractors, the more convinced I am that they probably haven't watched his tape from the preseason.  

Because if you have then you have surely seen that the panthers have not only used him as a receiver but also used him extensively as a Rb and he has proven (at least in preseason) that he has the ability to gain tough yards with SOME power and A LOT of agility and slipperiness.  There was one run in particular where he ran up the gut.  He made himself small and patiently followed his blockers.  The defense couldn't even see him behind his blockers.  And then he saw a crease and busted it for 12 yards.  You don't have to be a big back to be successful running it up the gut.  

Additionally, his college tape shows how his team used him and he was their bellcow, routinely running the ball up the middle for tough yards.  

I agree that his td total won't be high this year and Stewart and cam as td vultures at the gl are a real issue.  But let's not forget that woodhead, a player that many in here are comparing mccaffery to, was a gl vulture to a bigger back (Gordon) 2 seasons ago and he was the bane of Gordon owners existence in Gordon's rookie year.   I can see mccaffery getting SOME love at the gl this year on pass plays and some creative run plays.  

I would bank on 7-8 tds total. 

He might lead the team in receptions.  And I can see 1400+ total yards.  

Yes, that makes him a far stronger play in ppr leagues but a viable rb2 in standard leagues.  Jmho

the best part of all this is that the season is quickly approaching and we will watch all of this play out. 

As always, if I'm wrong I will be happy to come in here and eat crow and admit that either mccaffery sucks or that he's good but his coaches don't utilize him the right way (which is entirely possible).  

Edited by rickyg
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Jonathan Stewart 2015-2016

3.9 YPC

24 receptions

6 games missed

...he's now on the wrong side of 30 as well.  

Bottomline - there is an enormous role on offense simply waiting for McCaffrey to carve it out.  He'll need to face plant to not do so.

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2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Jonathan Stewart 2015-2016

3.9 YPC

24 receptions

6 games missed

...he's now on the wrong side of 30 as well.  

Bottomline - there is an enormous role on offense simply waiting for McCaffrey to carve it out.  He'll need to face plant to not do so.

Yup.  And even if Stewart stays healthy all year this year.  This backfield is mccaffery's in 2018.   

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8 hours ago, Statorama said:

It's the same reasons you wouldn't draft Sproles outside of PPR.  There just isn't enough "oomph" in his game for me to draft him in non-PPR.  In a basic TD league the guy isn't even the 4th best option on his team to cross the goal line.  There's way too much risk that this guy ends up rushing for 600 yards and 4 TDs.  A dude rushing for 50 or so yards a game averaging a TD a month would make him unrosterable IMO.

That said, the guy carries unbelievable value in PPR and you can easily make a case he's a top 15 back in that format.  Full disclosure it's been years since I've played non-PPR, so guys that rush for 50 yards a game and score a TD a month may be more valuable now than they were back then.

You still get points for receiving yards in nonPPR

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23 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

So odd after seeing him play that there are still so many people convinced that McCaffrey can't possibly be anything more than a Woodhead/Bush CoP type player.  This guy absolutely has the chops to be a lead back and IMO will prove himself to be a better option at RB than Stewart as the season unfolds.

 

I think a Warrick Dunn type career is his floor and a post-2000 Tiki Barber type career is a very real possibility for him.

 

.

Understand your point, but I think that's misrepresenting what "so many people" are saying....which I would re-state as although CMC has the potential to take a share of Stewart's early down and short yardage work away, Stewart is NOT a JAG who will quietly fade away.  I see posts about Stewart having lost the burst he used to have.  Apparently I've been watching a different pre-season.  If you are the Panther's coaching staff you use BOTH talented players as tools....and it is this point that people are making when they are tempering expectations about CMC.

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51 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

You still get points for receiving yards in nonPPR

Depends on the league, depends on the scoring format.

It's not complicated guys.  CMC's value increases the more your league rewards what a RB does as a receiver.  Conversely his value decreases the more your league scoring emphasizes what a RB does on the ground and devalues what they do as a receiver.  

In leagues where a RB is only rewarded for what he does as a result of handoffs, he's simply not going to score enough consistently enough to warrant drafting.

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7 hours ago, Doctor Detroit said:

I like that Statorama trolls the Shark Pool like he trolls the FFA.  

Not trolling, just a difference of opinion.  It's like saying Blount isn't draftable in PPR, I can argue that case just as well.

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4 minutes ago, Statorama said:

Depends on the league, depends on the scoring format.

It's not complicated guys.  CMC's value increases the more your league rewards what a RB does as a receiver.  Conversely his value decreases the more your league scoring emphasizes what a RB does on the ground and devalues what they do as a receiver.  

In leagues where a RB is only rewarded for what he does as a result of handoffs, he's simply not going to score enough consistently enough to warrant drafting.

Are there any leagues that don't count receiving yards for a RB? That would seem strange.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

Are there any leagues that don't count receiving yards for a RB? That would seem strange.

That's why I felt a clarification was needed.  I've played in all kinds of leagues with all kinds of rules.

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22 minutes ago, Statorama said:

Depends on the league, depends on the scoring format.

It's not complicated guys.  CMC's value increases the more your league rewards what a RB does as a receiver.  Conversely his value decreases the more your league scoring emphasizes what a RB does on the ground and devalues what they do as a receiver.  

In leagues where a RB is only rewarded for what he does as a result of handoffs, he's simply not going to score enough consistently enough to warrant drafting.

Yes in the 1 in a thousand leagues that don't count receiving yards for RBs  he is undraftable. I hope the one person who plays in that league sees your post. 

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