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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (2 Viewers)

Charlie Harper said:
Cam has rush TD totals of: 14, 8, 6, 5, 10, 5

CAR RBs: 11, 13, 8, 5, 9, 11

So CAR RBs get between 5-13 rush TDs between 2 or 3 RBs. Stewart had the most 1 RB had last year with 9. Before that DeAngelo had 7 in Cam's rookie year.

So it's not a matter of McC not looking like a goal line back, but Cam steals bunch and McC still has to contend with Stewart.

So for McC to return value you have to hope he's getting 100+ yards every game (doable).
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This all makes the assumption that they want to keep running Cam.

 
matuski said:
This all makes the assumption that they want to keep running Cam.
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He will run less but there is only so much that the coaches can do about stopping Cam from improvising, or even from calling his own number on the goal line.

I agree with that McCaffrey's rushing TD upside is definitely capped and that factors into wherever I am willing to draft him.  However in PPR formats I think he can end up as a low end RB1 even with only 4-6 rushing TDs. He's more likely to be a mid RB2 but everything about him screams the ability to shatter expectations.

 
Im in 12 team ppr league I pick9 then 16, 33 I really want this kid but I know he won't be there at 33 so im taking jordy at 9 thinking about taking mccaffrey at 16 cause im targeting keenan or pryor at 33 am I crazy? 

 
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Chaka said:
He will run less but there is only so much that the coaches can do about stopping Cam from improvising, or even from calling his own number on the goal line.

I agree with that McCaffrey's rushing TD upside is definitely capped and that factors into wherever I am willing to draft him.  However in PPR formats I think he can end up as a low end RB1 even with only 4-6 rushing TDs. He's more likely to be a mid RB2 but everything about him screams the ability to shatter expectations.
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I agree.  I am thinking Cam will start feeling his own mortality sooner than later.

Of course I could be wrong, but I am getting the vibe that this happens this year.

 
I like the way he runs and runs after the catch. Little wasted movement and he eats up yardage very quickly. Has a lot of jitterbug moves but they're all as he's still moving upfield. 

 
Robo35 said:
Im in 12 team ppr league I pick9 then 16, 33 I really want this kid but I know he won't be there at 33 so im taking jordy at 9 thinking about taking mccaffrey at 16 cause im targeting keenan or pryor at 33 am I crazy? 
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Good plan, I hope is still available at 16, he is skyrocketing up the chart.

 
matuski said:
I agree.  I am thinking Cam will start feeling his own mortality sooner than later.

Of course I could be wrong, but I am getting the vibe that this happens this year.
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I want to be on board with that but, I just have to be cautious on this one. Cam is a behemoth of a man, he doesn't need to rush 115 times a year to be a threat to steal 6-10 goal line scores. He could easily stop running as much between the 5s and still have his number called (or call it himself) a ton near the goal line.

In 14 seasons Steve Young ran for 43 TDs, including a whopping 6 in 1998 (his last season with a rush TD), which was 3.2 more TDs than his career average.  Cam has 48 TDs in less than half that time.  To be fair Young was not on the field a lot between 1985 & 1991 so Young definitely could have finished with a whole lot more than 43.  OTOH it took Young 722 rushing attempts to get his 43 TDs, Cam got to 48 on 689 career attempts.  A more modest pace but still clearly better than Young's.

Cam may not get to 10 TDs, but we know that's his ceiling plus he has never had fewer than 5 rushing TDs.

If McCaffrey is stealing TDs near the end zone, my money is on them coming from Stewart more than Cam.  And if Stewart misses time, something he has done every season since 2011, I think Cam would be even more likely to steal goal line TDs. He's just too big.

 
Chaka said:
I want to be on board with that but, I just have to be cautious on this one. Cam is a behemoth of a man, he doesn't need to rush 115 times a year to be a threat to steal 6-10 goal line scores. He could easily stop running as much between the 5s and still have his number called (or call it himself) a ton near the goal line.

In 14 seasons Steve Young ran for 43 TDs, including a whopping 6 in 1998 (his last season with a rush TD), which was 3.2 more TDs than his career average.  Cam has 48 TDs in less than half that time.  To be fair Young was not on the field a lot between 1985 & 1991 so Young definitely could have finished with a whole lot more than 43.  OTOH it took Young 722 rushing attempts to get his 43 TDs, Cam got to 48 on 689 career attempts.  A more modest pace but still clearly better than Young's.

Cam may not get to 10 TDs, but we know that's his ceiling plus he has never had fewer than 5 rushing TDs.

If McCaffrey is stealing TDs near the end zone, my money is on them coming from Stewart more than Cam.  And if Stewart misses time, something he has done every season since 2011, I think Cam would be even more likely to steal goal line TDs. He's just too big.
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How many TDs are you projecting for McCaffrey?

 
Gopher State said:
Good plan, I hope is still available at 16, he is skyrocketing up the chart.
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I like McCaffrey a lot in dynasty - and even in redraft - but if he goes before pick 16 (and even at 16) in a redraft league that just seems crazy to me. 

I have pick 9 also and if some one takes him before my pick in Round 2, I'll be pretty happy. I'd surely consider him in Round 3 but it sounds like that's not happening now.

 
TripItUp said:
How many TDs are you projecting for McCaffrey?
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I don't do projections, that's why I pay FGBs.

If I had to hazard a guess, which counts for as much as reading tea leaves or throwing the bones, between 4-6 TD rushing and 2-4 receiving.  10 TDs seems like a decent upside projection, but again, this guy appears to have a safe floor and he just oozes the potential to blow the doors off most reasonable expectations.

 
Top 4 rookie RBs continue to go in rounds 2-3, gone by end of round 3.  Just had another high stakes. I got the last one (Mixon) at 3.10.

 
Chaka said:
I want to be on board with that but, I just have to be cautious on this one. Cam is a behemoth of a man, he doesn't need to rush 115 times a year to be a threat to steal 6-10 goal line scores. He could easily stop running as much between the 5s and still have his number called (or call it himself) a ton near the goal line.

In 14 seasons Steve Young ran for 43 TDs, including a whopping 6 in 1998 (his last season with a rush TD), which was 3.2 more TDs than his career average.  Cam has 48 TDs in less than half that time.  To be fair Young was not on the field a lot between 1985 & 1991 so Young definitely could have finished with a whole lot more than 43.  OTOH it took Young 722 rushing attempts to get his 43 TDs, Cam got to 48 on 689 career attempts.  A more modest pace but still clearly better than Young's.

Cam may not get to 10 TDs, but we know that's his ceiling plus he has never had fewer than 5 rushing TDs.

If McCaffrey is stealing TDs near the end zone, my money is on them coming from Stewart more than Cam.  And if Stewart misses time, something he has done every season since 2011, I think Cam would be even more likely to steal goal line TDs. He's just too big.
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Good info.  My only concerns would be the last part.  When they drafted CMC it seemed like it was done with the intention of cutting down on Cam's runs with dumpoffs.  Maybe they still use him around the GL but it just feels like they don't want him running as much.

 
Bigboy10182000 said:
Good info.  My only concerns would be the last part.  When they drafted CMC it seemed like it was done with the intention of cutting down on Cam's runs with dumpoffs.  Maybe they still use him around the GL but it just feels like they don't want him running as much.
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I am 100% certain they don't want him to run as much. I am also 100% certain they felt that way every off season since he came into the league.

But it is not at cross purposes to say that Cam could 1) run the ball a lot less overall and 2) still be a threat to take 5-10 rushing TDs.  Ultimately he's their best option on the goal line, got a nose for the endzone, and the stature get in there, like no other QB, ever.

Until it doesn't happen, we should bank on a minimum of 5 rushing TDs from Cam, with an upside of 10.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I hope everyone who STILL thinks this future HOFer is Woodhead 2.0 is not giving FF advice to friends and family.  I've been preaching it for months and I know its only preseason but CMC is a workhorse RB who can also catch.  We're watching the next LT/Faulk, folks.  He's the real deal and that last drive offered a taste of what we're going to see a lot of for the next several years.
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The next LT, folks!

That's the same guy who ran for 28 TDs in a season.

CMC is next!

:jawdrop:

 
Snorkelson said:
Everyone says "well, he can't pound it on from the 1" but I think he can find the space to slither through, as well as bounce out when the space isn't there. I hate watching a big back slam into the olines back and just push and get swallowed up rather than actually use vision. Sure, jstew or cam could get some tds, but just because a guy isn't 250 doesn't mean he can't find the end zone. Just like on a qb sneak, you can't get the snap and just run forward blindly, you have to look for the space. 
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You're absolutely right, diminutive RBs can be at an advantage in those situations. They can hide behind their linemen.

 
Miro Z said:
Very little. Like Pumphrey or Sproles-style little. As I said before, no way he's 5'11. He might be 5'8.

He did look quite good. But then so did Tarik Cohen, who plays a very similar complementary role behind a lead back, and you can get him for next to nothing.
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If he was 5'8" instead of 5'11" at his weight - wouldn't that be better? He still looks like he always falls forward for extra yards as well so his size doesn't look like an issue.

And if you really want to now compare McCaffrey for Cohen - there's no reason anyone should even bother engaging you anymore.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
If he was 5'8" instead of 5'11" at his weight - wouldn't that be better? He still looks like he always falls forward for extra yards as well so his size doesn't look like an issue.

And if you really want to now compare McCaffrey for Cohen - there's no reason anyone should even bother engaging you anymore.
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I'm not saying CMC and Cohen are the same player, I am just making the observation that Cohen looked great:

Tarik Cohen in Week 2 of preseason

And is also behind a lead back at RB.

 
Miro Z said:
I'm not saying CMC and Cohen are the same player, I am just making the observation that Cohen looked great:

Tarik Cohen in Week 2 of preseason

And is also behind a lead back at RB.
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Yeah but Cohen's role will be much smaller and we KNOW that. Jordan Howard is a little bit better than an end of the line Jonathan Stewart.

Why draft Rob Gronkowski when you can just draft Austin Hooper? They both play TE?

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
Yeah but Cohen's role will be much smaller and we KNOW that. Jordan Howard is a little bit better than an end of the line Jonathan Stewart.

Why draft Rob Gronkowski when you can just draft Austin Hooper? They both play TE?
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The analogy is a bit inexact. Gronkowski is the consensus #1 TE in fantasy. CMC is by no means the consensus #1 RB in fantasy. He is not even the #1 RB in Carolina in real terms!

All I'm asking - and there's an element of emperor's new clothes to all of this - is if it is worth spending a 2nd round pick or a similarly high pick on a guy who isn't even starting on his own team. 

Wouldn't it be wiser to draft better value players? In fact your analogy should really be, why draft CMC when you can take Gronk?

 
Miro Z said:
The analogy is a bit inexact. Gronkowski is the consensus #1 TE in fantasy. CMC is by no means the consensus #1 RB in fantasy. He is not even the #1 RB in Carolina in real terms!

All I'm asking - and there's an element of emperor's new clothes to all of this - is if it is worth spending a 2nd round pick or a similarly high pick on a guy who isn't even starting on his own team. 

Wouldn't it be wiser to draft better value players? In fact your analogy should really be, why draft CMC when you can take Gronk?
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I'm not advocating taking McCaffrey that early in fact if you look back a few posts I said some of the recent talk of taking him at pick 16 was getting a little crazy.

However, you comparing McCaffrey to RBs that aren't expected to have major roles and your insistence on repeating McCaffrey being behind Stewart is beyond disingenuous. Even is Stewart "starts" ahead of McCaffrey he should still have a major role with Carolina. Do you think Stewart outscores McCaffrey in fantasy this year?

Saying that you should wait and just grab a guy that may have 80-100 touches this season is just a waster of everyone's time. And my analogy was spot on to yours in that regard.  

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I'm not advocating taking McCaffrey that early in fact if you look back a few posts I said some of the recent talk of taking him at pick 16 was getting a little crazy.

However, you comparing McCaffrey to RBs that aren't expected to have major roles and your insistence on repeating McCaffrey being behind Stewart is beyond disingenuous. Even is Stewart "starts" ahead of McCaffrey he should still have a major role with Carolina. Do you think Stewart outscores McCaffrey in fantasy this year?

Saying that you should wait and just grab a guy that may have 80-100 touches this season is just a waster of everyone's time. And my analogy was spot on to yours in that regard.  
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I recommend you read what I said. I'm saying the smart move is to get the value elsewhere. Instead of paying over the odds for CMC and spending a really high pick on him, take a top WR or TE there instead, and get a RB several rounds later who is more than likely to out-score CMC. 

For example, guys like Doug Martin and Jeremy Hill are going very late this year and both could easily lead their respective teams in rushing and out-score CMC.

Better to get Gronk in the 2nd and Doug Martin in the 9th than CMC in the 2nd and Austin Hooper in the 9th, in other words.

 
Been pretty impressive this preseason. It's really early, but he and Mixon look to be the two best rookies so far. Also like what I've seen from Kamara.

 
Christian McCaffrey rushed 7 times for 21 yards and caught one pass for 12 yards in the Panthers' third preseason game.

His catch was especially important because it came from Cam Newton, one of the quarterback's two throws of the night. McCaffrey didn't enter the game until Jonathan Stewart had already rushed the ball twice, but from there the pair rotated fairly evenly. An exciting rookie who's routinely being drafted in the 3rd round, McCaffrey will likely score the majority of his fantasy points between the 20s with Newton and Stewart hogging goal-line touches, limiting his touchdown upside. McCaffrey is a risky pick at his current ADP.

Aug 24 - 9:40 PM
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joffer said:
from Carolina's POV, seems like an ideal 50/50 split
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Absolutely. Just looking at the last 3 years, we can expect about 400 RB touches for them- hopefully a bit more with CMc increasing RB receptions. I think we could see CMc getting roughly 50 receptions, 150 carries. JStew 140 carries, 10 receptions. CMc gets you 1000 yards, 50 catches and ???TDs. The number of TDs can really swing his value. 

 
EBF said:
Been pretty impressive this preseason. It's really early, but he and Mixon look to be the two best rookies so far. Also like what I've seen from Kamara.
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Huh? McCaffery and Mixon look like the two best rookies? Guys in an obvious committee? Cook is the best rookie and its not even close. Not. Even. Close. 

He already has passed Murray (who is hurt and already not highly thought of), the guys u mentioned cant pass the guys they were drafted to replace in camp. Not saying they wont, but you cant say the two guys who have not earned a starting job yet are the best, at least thats my opinion. 

Fournette? He is my #2 right now. Mixon is the least exciting out of all of them, I might take Hunt over him at this point. 

 
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Mavis said:
Huh? McCaffery and Mixon look like the two best rookies? Guys in an obvious committee? Cook is the best rookie and its not even close. Not. Even. Close. 

He already has passed Murray (who is hurt and already not highly thought of), the guys u mentioned cant pass the guys they were drafted to replace in camp. Not saying they wont, but you cant say the two guys who have not earned a starting job yet are the best, at least thats my opinion. 

Fournette? He is my #2 right now. Mixon is the least exciting out of all of them, I might take Hunt over him at this point. 
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Cook has the best role, but I don't think he has looked better than CMc. 

 
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