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Trip's Top 5 Overvalued 2016 (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

TripItUp

Footballguy
Here are my top 5 overvalued in 2016.  I'll keep the reasoning brief to promote discussion.

Like last year I'll stay away from "cheap" calls, such as those that involve injury situations or preseason battles. 

For a reference point, here is last year's edition.

Here we go....

1) AJ Green - ADP = 1.08 and #5 WR - Don't get me wrong, he is one of the better receivers in the game, but taking Green as the #5 WR and #8 overall is a tad high for a player that finished 12th in points per game among WRs.  You are not playing for first place if you draft AJ in the first round, he just doesn't score enough points to justify a first round pick.

2) Aaron Rodgers - ADP = 3.10 and #2 QB - To give you some context here, Eli Manning outscored Aaron last year and he is going 4 1/2 rounds later.  Supporters will be quick to point out that Jordy coming back will help some, but do we really feel like that justifies a lofty pick in a year where QB is as deep as ever.  I'll pass on Rodgers at 3.10 every time this year.  Do yourself a favor and take Eli five rounds later and get similar production, maybe even better.

3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration.  Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year.  Yuck.

4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin).  Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs.  I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.

5) Jeremy Langford - ADP = 4.11  and #20 RB - This kid just isn't very good.  He doesn't pass the eye test.  Langford averaged 3.6 yards per carry and his advanced metrics are terrible too.  If Langford is the starter by the end of the year it won't be because he's a good NFL RB.  I actually think the bears have two better runners in Carey and Howard.  This may very well turn into a RBBC sooner than later.

There they are, I may consider putting out a second edition as there are a handful of other overvalued players that are worth mentioning.

***I'm using fantasy football calculator's ADP from this past week.  ADP is for standard 12 team leagues.

 
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Very good read and I like how you have solid back up for each of your takes.  

I personally think AJ Green will have a great season--but with that being said--I wouldn't take him at 1.8.   I like him far better towards the early half of the second if he happens to fall that far.  

I don't disagree with Cobb or Arod.   

Edelman to me is a tough call.  In standard leagues where scoring is more TD dependent--I agree with you big time.  In ppr leagues--I don't know if I'd call him overvalued---I'd be more inclined to call him just "valued".  

I really have no argument with Langford either.   

In any case-- nice work and thanks for sharing.  

 
Green and Rodgers both feel like relatively safe picks. After Green it's Dez, AR, Marshall and Jordy. Dez has injury issues and so does his QB, Marshall is getting up there in age, AR only has one stud season and Jordy is 31 and still on the PUP after a major injury. Rodgers just doesn't feel like a BAD pick. He should get Nelson back and that whole offense feels like last year was just an off year. Would I take him in the 3rd? Nope but can I see him being the QB2 by the end of the year? It doesn't seem crazy. 

Cobb I'm down on. Langford I am staying completely away from.

Edelman is probably about 4-5 WR spots too high. I take Tate, Baldwin and Maclin before him. Floyd, Decker, Moncrief are the next 3 and I could see the argument before them. 

 
I agree with 4 out of the 5. I really think Green is in for a big year. With no Jones or Sanu, he should see a healthy dose of targets. Factor in that Eifert is already banged up and that just means even more for Green. Maybe you can argue he won't finish as WR5, but he seems a pretty safe bet of those WRs being drafted in the 5-10 range to finish around there.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Very good read and I like how you have solid back up for each of your takes.  

I personally think AJ Green will have a great season--but with that being said--I wouldn't take him at 1.8.   I like him far better towards the early half of the second if he happens to fall that far.   
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Agree that I would take him in the mid second in standard leagues, just don't like him at 1.08.

 
Borden said:
Cobb I'm down on. Langford I am staying completely away from.

Edelman is probably about 4-5 WR spots too high. I take Tate, Baldwin and Maclin before him. Floyd, Decker, Moncrief are the next 3 and I could see the argument before them. 
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:hifive:

 
Borden said:
 AR only has one stud season and Jordy is 31 and still on the PUP after a major injury. Rodgers just doesn't feel like a BAD pick. He should get Nelson back and that whole offense feels like last year was just an off year. Would I take him in the 3rd? Nope but can I see him being the QB2 by the end of the year? It doesn't seem crazy. 
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And that's the key, AR is a solid pick, just not at his current ADP.  Looks like we agree here.

 
MattFancy said:
I really think Green is in for a big year. With no Jones or Sanu, he should see a healthy dose of targets. Factor in that Eifert is already banged up and that just means even more for Green. Maybe you can argue he won't finish as WR5, but he seems a pretty safe bet of those WRs being drafted in the 5-10 range to finish around there.
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I actually went back and looked at Green's numbers with Eifert out, and they are actually down when compared to the games Eifert was in.  

 
TripItUp said:
I actually went back and looked at Green's numbers with Eifert out, and they are actually down when compared to the games Eifert was in.  
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Well that's interesting. Was that just last year or all seasons with Eifert on the team?

 
MattFancy said:
Well that's interesting. Was that just last year or all seasons with Eifert on the team?
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Just last year...I try not to go back too far as so many other factors can have an impact.  It may be interesting to see if prior years show the same correlation.

 
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The spot where a player comes off the board and where they go with in their position group are different aspects too. 

I think Draft Calc ADP is a bit skewed too. A defenses start coming off the board in the 9th.

*DJ at 1.06 in non-PPR seems high too. 

Edit: Checked a few other places and Draft Calc seems to be close with most of the other places. 

 
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TripItUp said:
Just last year...I try not to go back too far as so many other factors can have an impact.  It may be interesting to see if prior years show the same correlation.
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Well last year in games w/o Eifert:

5-128-1 vs CLE

1-37-0 @SF (McCarron's 1st start)

5-57-1 @DEN

And then in 2014, Eifert played in only 1 game, so hard to judge there. And then in 2013, Eifert missed 1 game and Green put up: 4-61-1 in that one.

 
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TripItUp said:
Right, so we are looking at less than 9 points per game when Eifert was out,  lower than his 2015 PPG.

I'm guessing he sees a lot more double coverage, which makes sense.
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Well to be fair (late edit on my part), that San Fran game was AJ McCarron's first start. The WRs in that game as a whole, only accounted for 7 catches. Marvin Jones went 4-89 and was the leading receiver.

In PPR, for those games his points would have been: 23.8, 4.7, and 16.7. Which comes out to 15ppg. He averaged 17ppg for the season last year. So a slight down tick in PPG w/o Eifert, but he was also w/o Dalton for 2 of those games as well.

 
MattFancy said:
In PPR, for those games his points would have been: 23.8, 4.7, and 16.7. Which comes out to 15ppg. He averaged 17ppg for the season last year. So a slight down tick in PPG w/o Eifert, but he was also w/o Dalton for 2 of those games as well.
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good catch

 
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TripItUp said:
.

3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration.  Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year.  Yuck.

4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin).  Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs.  I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.
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I can explain why Green Bay was worse at passing last year, but I can't explain why they should stay bad.  Both cobb and jordy were hurt last year.  It's not like Rodgers sucks, or Cobb has been replaced.   They are still an outstanding passing team.  

2016 looks more like 2014 than 2015 to me.  Look at Andy Dalton 2013 - top 5 qb in fantasy football.  2014 - middle of the pack.  2015 - was top 5 when he got hurt at the end of the year.  Why did he suck 2014?  Eifert, green, jones, and gio all were hurt and several played through injuries.  Look at Brady the year he lost Welker, lloyd and hernandez.  2011 5000 yards.  2012 4600 yards.  2013 4000 yards throwing to studs like kenbrell thompkins.

If you assume that the green bay passing attack bounces back somewhat this year, then who besides Cobb is their number two?  They don't have someone waiting in the wings to take his job. I can see him having a worse year than his monster 2014, where he got red hot at the end of the year as teams struggled to double jordy and defend against Lacy. 

I don"t know that you can expect 1300 yards and double digit tds from Cobb, but at least he's done it, and you're getting a piece of aaron rodgers.

Compare that with Tate, who you say you like better.  99 catches for 1300 yards and 4 tds in 2014.  Why didn't he do that in 2015? 90 catches, 813 yards, 6 tds - because Calvin was healthy.  But calvin only missed 3 games in 2014.  He was dinged up for several games, but he played.  Obviously the hope is that stafford just zones in on him and peppers him with targets, but it's dangerous to predict a career year.

For tate to match Cobb's 2014, he would have to match his outlier season of 1300 yards - his only year over 900 yards - and exceed his high water mark of 7 tds.  And instead of getting a piece of rodgers, you're getting a piece of matt stafford.  Give me cobb over tate all day.  

As for Edelman, he was on pace for those same kind of numbers last year with 61/692/7 in 9 games plus another 17 catches for 153 in the playoffs.  Thats pace for about 1200/12.  His high water mark before that was 105/1056/6.  The fears with him are that he regresses, especially with new england moving to the two tight end attack again.  

But look back at 2011 and 2012, the peak of the gronk/hernandez offense.  Those were literally welker's two best years with an absurd 240 catches for over 2900 yards and 15 tds.  By pressuring the defense with big guys and using lots of pre snap motion they make it hard to bracket the little slot guy.  This is potentially a really good thing for Edelman, who was basically uncoverable late in their Superbowl run and most of last year.  I can see thinking he's getting over drafted, and there are some legitimate concerns, but he's got a chance to pop in a big way and could carry teams in the second half of the season.  

 
Pretty good call on Green. We're actually 3 years removed now from him being a top 5 WR (2012 & 2013.) Granted he was hurt one of those years but I found him frustrating last year, and last year's price was 21st pick. My 5th and 12th rounders* outperformed him often during the stretch from Week 3 - A.J. put up 10-227-2 - and the late season TD binge (6 of his 10 TDs came after Thanksgiving.)

*ARob & MFloyd but nobody cares

Totally agree on Edleman & Langford. I actually think Rodgers gets back to top 3 status but I don't care, there's not enough differential to warrant taking a QB early. Cobb I think never really let on (& never will) how much his shoulder bothered him. When he can't work out his weight drops, and last year he was below 184 during the season, the lightest he's been since Soph year of college. He bulked up in the offseason and came in at 197. I think the low YPC is a reflection of how difficult it was for him to get separation out of the slot where he took 83.5% of his snaps last year. I have him at WR21 so I don't view late 3rd as a crazy price to pay in redraft. (ASIDE - I only play PPR, not sure where he should be non-PPR.)

 
BobbyLayne said:
Pretty good call on Green. We're actually 3 years removed now from him being a top 5 WR (2012 & 2013.) Granted he was hurt one of those years but I found him frustrating last year, and last year's price was 21st pick. My 5th and 12th rounders* outperformed him often during the stretch from Week 3 - A.J. put up 10-227-2 - and the late season TD binge (6 of his 10 TDs came after Thanksgiving.)

*ARob & MFloyd but nobody cares

Totally agree on Edleman & Langford.
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:hifive:

 
TripItUp said:
good catch
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And digging a little deeper, in that SF game, the Bengals only had 8 pass attempts in the 2nd half and 0 in the 4th quarter. So hard to hold that against Green when the game plan was clearly designed to take pressure off of McCarron.

I think at WR this year, once Brown, Julio, and Beckham are off the board, WR4-WR12 are all about even IMO. The rest of those WRs all have question marks. Green seems to be the safest of the bunch and has previous top 5 WR seasons on his resume. I'd feel safe grabbing him anywhere in the 1st.

 
I think you're missing the mark on 1-3. There's a reason Cobb and Rodgers had down years. Mean reversion is a key part of FF. 

 
MattFancy said:
I think at WR this year, once Brown, Julio, and Beckham are off the board, WR4-WR12 are all about even IMO. The rest of those WRs all have question marks. Green seems to be the safest of the bunch and has previous top 5 WR seasons on his resume. I'd feel safe grabbing him anywhere in the 1st.
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In most leagues I draft for upside in most rounds so AJ just doesn't profile as a good pick for my philosophy.  If you're a play it safe guy the argument for AJ in the first round is definitely there. 

Players going after AJ that I'd rather have include Bryant, Gronk, Marshall

 
MattFancy said:
I think at WR this year, once Brown, Julio, and Beckham are off the board, WR4-WR12 are all about even IMO. The rest of those WRs all have question marks. Green seems to be the safest of the bunch and has previous top 5 WR seasons on his resume. I'd feel safe grabbing him anywhere in the 1st.
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How would you feel about taking him at 1.05? In quite a few mocks I'm only seeing one RB come off the board in the first four.

I think DJ will be the #1 back in PPR and I'm drafting Gurley every chance I get. I just can't see taking Nuk or AJ in that spot. We'll see how it plays come draft day. If I can't get JJ or OBJ I'm almost certain I'll go RB-WR-WR-WR this year (league is 1-3-2-1-1.)

 
TripItUp said:
In most leagues I draft for upside in most rounds so AJ just doesn't profile as a good pick for my philosophy.  If you're a play it safe guy the argument for AJ in the first round is definitely there. 

Players going after AJ that I'd rather have include Bryant, Gronk, Marshall
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So what do you see in Dez and Marshall that you don't see in Green? Dez is coming off an injury plagued season and will only be as good as Romo is. If Romo misses time again this year, we've seen what Dez is like without him.

Marshall had a great year last season, but will go as far as Fitzpatrick takes him. Fitz missed all the offseason, which may or may not matter, but Fitz is also coming off a career year at age 33. Are we really banking on Fitz duplicating that season at age 34?

 
TripItUp said:
Even with a healthy bounce for Green Bay's offense,  Cobb and Rodgers are overvalued IMHO.
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Rodgers is the best QB in the league right now and he can run. I would say it's more accurate to say Eli is underrated. Taking the best QB in round 3 is status quo. I personally would not take Tate or  Baldwin over Cobb. If you want to discuss aberration, see Baldwin 2015. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
How would you feel about taking him at 1.05? In quite a few mocks I'm only seeing one RB come off the board in the first four.

I think DJ will be the #1 back in PPR and I'm drafting Gurley every chance I get. I just can't see taking Nuk or AJ in that spot. We'll see how it plays come draft day. If I can't get JJ or OBJ I'm almost certain I'll go RB-WR-WR-WR this year (league is 1-3-2-1-1.)
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I could see the argument for taking him at 1.05 in a PPR. It would be a tough call for me personally at that spot, especially if Johnson is there too. I'm not sure he's worth a top 5 draft pick, but I think he is a top 5 WR.

 
MattFancy said:
So what do you see in Dez and Marshall that you don't see in Green? Dez is coming off an injury plagued season and will only be as good as Romo is. If Romo misses time again this year, we've seen what Dez is like without him.
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Dez offers higher TD upside and Marshall offers higher PPG as I see no good reasons for regression.  You can get Green's ppg a round or two later. 

 
TripItUp said:
Dez offers higher TD upside and Marshall offers higher PPG as I see no good reasons for regression.  You can get Green's ppg a round or two later. 
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Sure, Dez has TD upside, but it's hard to bank on that. Green has more targets than Dez in less career games. I'd take my chances on the guy that will get more looks in the passing game.

Marshall had a career year last season. Had 14 TDs (career high) and was 6 yards short of his career high in yards. Also had 109 catches, his career high is 118. He's also 32 this season. Not trying to discredit Marshall, would definitely take him on my team, but I just don't see how he would be far an away better than Green this season. You're basically hoping for Fitz and Marshall to both have career years again in their age 34 and 32 seasons. Seems like you're asking a lot there.

 
TripItUp said:
Here are my top 5 overvalued in 2016.  I'll keep the reasoning brief to promote discussion.

Like last year I'll stay away from "cheap" calls, such as those that involve injury situations or preseason battles. 

For a reference point, here is last year's edition.

Here we go....

1) AJ Green - ADP = 1.08 and #5 WR - Don't get me wrong, he is one of the better receivers in the game, but taking Green as the #5 WR and #8 overall is a tad high for a player that finished 12th in points per game among WRs.  You are not playing for first place if you draft AJ in the first round, he just doesn't score enough points to justify a first round pick.

2) Aaron Rodgers - ADP = 3.10 and #2 QB - To give you some context here, Eli Manning outscored Aaron last year and he is going 4 1/2 rounds later.  Supporters will be quick to point out that Jordy coming back will help some, but do we really feel like that justifies a lofty pick in a year where QB is as deep as ever.  I'll pass on Rodgers at 3.10 every time this year.  Do yourself a favor and take Eli five rounds later and get similar production, maybe even better.

3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration.  Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year.  Yuck.

4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin).  Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs.  I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.

5) Jeremy Langford - ADP = 4.11  and #20 RB - This kid just isn't very good.  He doesn't pass the eye test.  Langford averaged 3.6 yards per carry and his advanced metrics are terrible too.  If Langford is the starter by the end of the year it won't be because he's a good NFL RB.  I actually think the bears have two better runners in Carey and Howard.  This may very well turn into a RBBC sooner than later.

There they are, I may consider putting out a second edition as there are a handful of other overvalued players that are worth mentioning.

***I'm using fantasy football calculator's ADP from this past week.  ADP is for standard 12 team leagues.
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Good read, but I disagree with most. 

I think Green could have his best season ever. Eifert is hurt, Sanu and Jones are gone and were replaced by Lafell and a rookie. 

Rodgers agree ADP wise, but I am not taking a quarterback before round 5. I expect Rodgers and a healthy Cobb to have a major bounce back this season. 

I agree with the rest. 

 
TripItUp said:
Here are my top 5 overvalued in 2016.  I'll keep the reasoning brief to promote discussion.

Like last year I'll stay away from "cheap" calls, such as those that involve injury situations or preseason battles. 

For a reference point, here is last year's edition.

Here we go....

1) AJ Green - ADP = 1.08 and #5 WR - Don't get me wrong, he is one of the better receivers in the game, but taking Green as the #5 WR and #8 overall is a tad high for a player that finished 12th in points per game among WRs.  You are not playing for first place if you draft AJ in the first round, he just doesn't score enough points to justify a first round pick.

2) Aaron Rodgers - ADP = 3.10 and #2 QB - To give you some context here, Eli Manning outscored Aaron last year and he is going 4 1/2 rounds later.  Supporters will be quick to point out that Jordy coming back will help some, but do we really feel like that justifies a lofty pick in a year where QB is as deep as ever.  I'll pass on Rodgers at 3.10 every time this year.  Do yourself a favor and take Eli five rounds later and get similar production, maybe even better.

3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration.  Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year.  Yuck.

4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin).  Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs.  I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.

5) Jeremy Langford - ADP = 4.11  and #20 RB - This kid just isn't very good.  He doesn't pass the eye test.  Langford averaged 3.6 yards per carry and his advanced metrics are terrible too.  If Langford is the starter by the end of the year it won't be because he's a good NFL RB.  I actually think the bears have two better runners in Carey and Howard.  This may very well turn into a RBBC sooner than later.

There they are, I may consider putting out a second edition as there are a handful of other overvalued players that are worth mentioning.

***I'm using fantasy football calculator's ADP from this past week.  ADP is for standard 12 team leagues.
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I completely disagree with #1 and #2.  AJ is an animal and I think Rodgers bounces back.  The rest of your list is spot on though.

 
I thing some of these combine different arguments. With Rodgers, you are suggesting waiting on QB, which has been a strategy for years. That doesn't mean that Rodgers won't be worth his draft spot. And I would wonder what your definition of "similar or better production" translates to.

Here are Rodgers' and Manning's fantasy ppg totals once they were both starters. Rankings include QBs that played in at least 8 games.

Rodgers
2008 21.60 (2)
2009 24.69 (1)
2010 23.78 (2)
2011 29.99 (1)
2012 25.06 (2)
2013 22.31 (5)
2014 25.32 (2)
2015 21.72 (13)

Manning
2008 15.18 (18)
2009 18.85 (12)
2010 19.13 (11)
2011 22.06 (7)
2012 18.09 (17)
2013 14.97 (31)
2014 20.98 (11)
2015 22.12 (9)

Way to compare the one season when Rodgers lost his WR1 for the entire season. I don't look at those numbers and see "similar production" from Eli over the years.

 
I know Cobb's 2013 was only 6 games but he was on pace for the exact same season he had in 2014. Not sure we can say 14 was the aberration. 15 might very well be the aberration.

in standard here are Cobb's ppg for each year except his rookie year: 10.4, 12.5, 12.8, 7.7

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Way to compare the one season when Rodgers lost his WR1 for the entire season. I don't look at those numbers and see "similar production" from Eli over the years.
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Now just look at Eli's numbers with McAdoo as his O Coordinator/HC....there's a real reason why Eli is of greater value now.

Looking  at a player's irrelevant years is exactly what got you into trouble with your Carson Palmer forecast last year.  :ph34r:

 
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Ilov80s said:
I know Cobb's 2013 was only 6 games but he was on pace for the exact same season he had in 2014. Not sure we can say 14 was the aberration. 15 might very well be the aberration.
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You could make that argument, but I saw a Cobb that just wasn't as good last year.  Perhaps coming in bulked up will help out...we'll see.

 
pantherclub said:
I completely disagree with #1 and #2.  AJ is an animal and I think Rodgers bounces back.  The rest of your list is spot on though.
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The question isn't whether the players are "good", the question is whether they are being overvalued when compared to other players you can draft instead.

Rodgers and Green are great players, I think most would concede that.

 
TripItUp said:
Now just look at Eli's numbers with McAdoo as his O Coordinator/HC....there's a real reason why Eli is of greater value now.

Looking  at a player's irrelevant years is exactly what got you into trouble with your Carson Palmer forecast last year.  :ph34r:
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Over the past two seasons in "the McAdoo era", Eli ranks 9th in fantasy ppg . . . four tenths of a point better than the #12 QB in that time and over 4 ppg from the top spot. Still not seeing the "similar or better production" levels than the uber elite guys.

Eli should be closer to the bottom tier of the QB1s than the top tier of the QB1s. If you want to make a case that draft strategy is better served bulking up on other positions and waiting on a QB, I certainly am not going to dispute that approach.

 
bostonfred said:
I can explain why Green Bay was worse at passing last year, but I can't explain why they should stay bad.  Both cobb and jordy were hurt last year.  It's not like Rodgers sucks, or Cobb has been replaced.   They are still an outstanding passing team.  

2016 looks more like 2014 than 2015 to me.  Look at Andy Dalton 2013 - top 5 qb in fantasy football.  2014 - middle of the pack.  2015 - was top 5 when he got hurt at the end of the year.  Why did he suck 2014?  Eifert, green, jones, and gio all were hurt and several played through injuries.  Look at Brady the year he lost Welker, lloyd and hernandez.  2011 5000 yards.  2012 4600 yards.  2013 4000 yards throwing to studs like kenbrell thompkins.

If you assume that the green bay passing attack bounces back somewhat this year, then who besides Cobb is their number two?  They don't have someone waiting in the wings to take his job. I can see him having a worse year than his monster 2014, where he got red hot at the end of the year as teams struggled to double jordy and defend against Lacy. 

I don"t know that you can expect 1300 yards and double digit tds from Cobb, but at least he's done it, and you're getting a piece of aaron rodgers.

Compare that with Tate, who you say you like better.  99 catches for 1300 yards and 4 tds in 2014.  Why didn't he do that in 2015? 90 catches, 813 yards, 6 tds - because Calvin was healthy.  But calvin only missed 3 games in 2014.  He was dinged up for several games, but he played.  Obviously the hope is that stafford just zones in on him and peppers him with targets, but it's dangerous to predict a career year.

For tate to match Cobb's 2014, he would have to match his outlier season of 1300 yards - his only year over 900 yards - and exceed his high water mark of 7 tds.  And instead of getting a piece of rodgers, you're getting a piece of matt stafford.  Give me cobb over tate all day.  
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Damn :goodposting:

GB really missed Jordy Nelson last year, and Cobb wasn't 100% throughout the year.  It was just a down year for the Packers in general.

I think Cobb is a lock for 120-130 targets, last year his catch rato was 61%, while his catch ratio in his other years is 71%.  71% times 125 is 88 catches.  So my projection for Cobb is 85 rec, 1100 yds, and 8 TDs.  That's pretty solid production for WR19.  And we know that he's capable of the 92/1300/12 season which makes him a top 10 WR....so his upside is there.

If you think that Cobb will produce less than this projection, then you must think some of the following will be true (all can't be true)

1) GB is going to pass less, 2) Nelson is going to have a career year, 3) Nelson will hit a wall and won't be as productive 4) Nelson won't stay healthy, 5) some other WR is going to step up big time and take targets away. 

I hope Cobb's ADP continues to slip.

 
TripItUp said:
Here are my top 5 overvalued in 2016.  I'll keep the reasoning brief to promote discussion.

Like last year I'll stay away from "cheap" calls, such as those that involve injury situations or preseason battles. 

For a reference point, here is last year's edition.

Here we go....

1) AJ Green - ADP = 1.08 and #5 WR - Don't get me wrong, he is one of the better receivers in the game, but taking Green as the #5 WR and #8 overall is a tad high for a player that finished 12th in points per game among WRs.  You are not playing for first place if you draft AJ in the first round, he just doesn't score enough points to justify a first round pick.

2) Aaron Rodgers - ADP = 3.10 and #2 QB - To give you some context here, Eli Manning outscored Aaron last year and he is going 4 1/2 rounds later.  Supporters will be quick to point out that Jordy coming back will help some, but do we really feel like that justifies a lofty pick in a year where QB is as deep as ever.  I'll pass on Rodgers at 3.10 every time this year.  Do yourself a favor and take Eli five rounds later and get similar production, maybe even better.

3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration.  Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year.  Yuck.

4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin).  Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs.  I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.

5) Jeremy Langford - ADP = 4.11  and #20 RB - This kid just isn't very good.  He doesn't pass the eye test.  Langford averaged 3.6 yards per carry and his advanced metrics are terrible too.  If Langford is the starter by the end of the year it won't be because he's a good NFL RB.  I actually think the bears have two better runners in Carey and Howard.  This may very well turn into a RBBC sooner than later.

There they are, I may consider putting out a second edition as there are a handful of other overvalued players that are worth mentioning.

***I'm using fantasy football calculator's ADP from this past week.  ADP is for standard 12 team leagues.
Click to expand...
I agree with Green.   I fear that teams are going to double and triple team him, and CIN is going to run the ball a lot with Hill and Bernard.  That said, he's a pretty safe option once all the super elite WRs are gone.  I will have a hard time pulling the trigger on him at 1.08.

I think Rodgers is going to have a bounce back year, but I would also take Eli 5 rounds later.  Rodgers is going to be better than Eli, but not enough to justify the draft position.

Disagree on Cobb.....I wrote about that.

Agree on Edelman, much of his value is tied to Brady.  I can really see Edelman getting off to a slow start this year with Brady suspended.  And he can't stay healthy.  I do disagree that Baldwin has a higher floor.

100% agree on Langford and your reasoning.  Just because the Bears let Matt Forte go doesn't mean that they think Langford is going to be the "new" Matt Forte.  Not even close.

 
MattFancy said:
I agree with 4 out of the 5. I really think Green is in for a big year. With no Jones or Sanu, he should see a healthy dose of targets. Factor in that Eifert is already banged up and that just means even more for Green. Maybe you can argue he won't finish as WR5, but he seems a pretty safe bet of those WRs being drafted in the 5-10 range to finish around there.
Click to expand...
Yeah....no Jones and no Sanu.  Worst case for Green is that they run a  Mr. Inside/Mr. Outside with Gio and or Eifert being the safety valve and Green being the Big Man on Campus.  If you believe in Green's talent and think he'll stay healthy....there's absolutely no reason to think he can't/won't end up in the top 5....with top 3 upside. 

 
fightingillini said:
Agree on Edelman, much of his value is tied to Brady.  I can really see Edelman getting off to a slow start this year with Brady suspended.  And he can't stay healthy.  I do disagree that Baldwin has a higher floor.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see how often Garoppolo targets him...certainly one of several risks with Edelman. 

A lot of risks with this guy.

 
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