TripItUp
Footballguy
Here are my top 5 overvalued in 2016. I'll keep the reasoning brief to promote discussion.
Like last year I'll stay away from "cheap" calls, such as those that involve injury situations or preseason battles.
For a reference point, here is last year's edition.
Here we go....
1) AJ Green - ADP = 1.08 and #5 WR - Don't get me wrong, he is one of the better receivers in the game, but taking Green as the #5 WR and #8 overall is a tad high for a player that finished 12th in points per game among WRs. You are not playing for first place if you draft AJ in the first round, he just doesn't score enough points to justify a first round pick.
2) Aaron Rodgers - ADP = 3.10 and #2 QB - To give you some context here, Eli Manning outscored Aaron last year and he is going 4 1/2 rounds later. Supporters will be quick to point out that Jordy coming back will help some, but do we really feel like that justifies a lofty pick in a year where QB is as deep as ever. I'll pass on Rodgers at 3.10 every time this year. Do yourself a favor and take Eli five rounds later and get similar production, maybe even better.
3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration. Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year. Yuck.
4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin). Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs. I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.
5) Jeremy Langford - ADP = 4.11 and #20 RB - This kid just isn't very good. He doesn't pass the eye test. Langford averaged 3.6 yards per carry and his advanced metrics are terrible too. If Langford is the starter by the end of the year it won't be because he's a good NFL RB. I actually think the bears have two better runners in Carey and Howard. This may very well turn into a RBBC sooner than later.
There they are, I may consider putting out a second edition as there are a handful of other overvalued players that are worth mentioning.
***I'm using fantasy football calculator's ADP from this past week. ADP is for standard 12 team leagues.
Like last year I'll stay away from "cheap" calls, such as those that involve injury situations or preseason battles.
For a reference point, here is last year's edition.
Here we go....
1) AJ Green - ADP = 1.08 and #5 WR - Don't get me wrong, he is one of the better receivers in the game, but taking Green as the #5 WR and #8 overall is a tad high for a player that finished 12th in points per game among WRs. You are not playing for first place if you draft AJ in the first round, he just doesn't score enough points to justify a first round pick.
2) Aaron Rodgers - ADP = 3.10 and #2 QB - To give you some context here, Eli Manning outscored Aaron last year and he is going 4 1/2 rounds later. Supporters will be quick to point out that Jordy coming back will help some, but do we really feel like that justifies a lofty pick in a year where QB is as deep as ever. I'll pass on Rodgers at 3.10 every time this year. Do yourself a favor and take Eli five rounds later and get similar production, maybe even better.
3) Randall Cobb - ADP = 3.12 and #19 WR - low yards per catch, and only 6 TDs last year...people are still clinging to his 2014 stats which were the definition of an aberration. Oh yeah, and Randall Cobb finished #35 in ppg last year. Yuck.
4) Julian Edelman - ADP = 4.05 and #21WR - the next two WRs going after Edelman not only offer higher upside, but also have higher floors(Tate and Baldwin). Edelman regularly misses games due to injury and doesn't score enough TDs. I can see the argument for PPRs, but 4.05 in standard drafts is not the risk/reward ratio you are looking for, you can't have low YPC and low TD totals and history of injury...too many red flags.
5) Jeremy Langford - ADP = 4.11 and #20 RB - This kid just isn't very good. He doesn't pass the eye test. Langford averaged 3.6 yards per carry and his advanced metrics are terrible too. If Langford is the starter by the end of the year it won't be because he's a good NFL RB. I actually think the bears have two better runners in Carey and Howard. This may very well turn into a RBBC sooner than later.
There they are, I may consider putting out a second edition as there are a handful of other overvalued players that are worth mentioning.
***I'm using fantasy football calculator's ADP from this past week. ADP is for standard 12 team leagues.
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