Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I didn't mention a lot of the QBs and I also seemed to do a lot of game summaries for some of the match ups based on last week. I want to circle back to several games and get some thoughts from many of you. And if you have a completely different take on any of the games, please be my guest and help educate the rest of us minions.
NY Jets at Buffalo Pk ‘Em (41)
Fitz had 189/2Td last week but I tell you he isn’t a good NFL QB. Please understand, with the amount of talent around him, he’s gonna have stats. But his passes this past weekend were not very good. His receivers do an incredible job of making him look at least average but if you look close, Fitz should be carrying a clipboard, he has some real limitations.
Alert: Quincy Enunwa was targeted 8 times and caught 7/54/TD. This is a guy you might like on your bench in a flex spot but understand he is still the #3 guy here. Marshall had 8 targets but only 3/32, Cinci was focused on stopping him and I think that added a little to Enunwa. Decker had 7 targets and caught only 2/37/Td, He and Marshall combined for just 5 catches on 15 targets...as I’m working this out I think we can tell that Enunwa is likely foolish to grab early on the waiver wire this week. Had Marshall and Decker caught a few more balls then Enunwa wouldn’t see as many targets or receptions, fewer opps except when they face tougher defenses where he is more likely to be the lone guy open on short stick routes.
Forte and Powell combined for 11 targets. Matt Forte caught 5/59 and 22/96 on the ground, that’s a 25+ avg type season, 400 touches, lot of touches for a guy his age, Jets plan is to ride him for all they can. Powell is simply relief but he did manage 10 yds a carry, certainly an anomaly.
For the Bills, all the talk is Sammy Watkins and rightly so. He had a pretty mediocre showing last week but seems injured and there also seems to be no end in sight. He re-injured the foot where he has a big screw, nothing is broken but he is in a lot of pain. How much can he play through because Rex says they are not shutting him down. My only concern is the health of Watkins and I feel bad for him. He needs to play if he can but he might be doing long term damage, tough spot to be in and I understand there is a lot of money at play but he’s under a rookie contract still. This situation concerns me.
I’m not sure what the next guy up will do in Buffalo but this offense looks terrible. McCoy managed to score a TD which helped. He is going to get a lot of touches as long as health stays good. Keep an eye on Charles Clay, maybe he can get 3-4 more targets, he has talent and can break tackles once he catches the ball. They paid him a lot of money, use him.
Cincinnati managed to rack up a lot of yards against the Jets secondary but I think AJ Green had a major part of that, Buffalo might not have that type of weapon healthy on their roster. Even a healthy Watkins would not exploit the way AJ did. Quick turnaround will also keep the score kind of low.
Final Score: NY Jets 20...Buffalo 17, I actually see the Jets winning this one easily. They should have won against Cinci and it just didn’t work out. The Bills look like an 0-2 team, the Jets look like a solid potential playoff team especially in the OL/DL/Front 7/SkillPos but Buffalo does not.
Tennessee at Detroit -5.5(47)
Let’s deal with the passing game for the Titans first. Looks like the early returns for Tajae Sharpe are pretty good including 7/76 on 11 targets. Defenses are going to wisen up to the rookie and force others to produce more. Andre Johnson had 7 targets for 3/30, he was the next guy at WR so I am concerned this isn’t enough for Mariota to really flourish. Rishard Mathews only 4 targets, I might think about cutting him if you own him, certainly better options if you compete in leagues where only about 60 WRs are rostered. Not sure Mathews is even a top 75 guy right now, Johnson either ‘nuff said about both of them. TE Delanie Walker had 3/42 on just 5 targets, no real cause for concern but it was more of a dud this past weekend. I know he is starting on a lot of your rosters.
Murray 13/42 vs Henry 5/3 in a game where they were behind much of the game. I think this will change, I wouldn’t overreact to this. The Lions are not terrible in rush defense but they should be a little softer than the Vikes last week. For now though you should bench Henry but he did catch 2/41 on just 2 targets, he showed in open space what a beast he is. Look for more touches especially if the Titans continue to lose football games.
The Lions come out and get the win in Indy, they looked good doing it despite giving up a lot of points on defense. They are exciting and they spray the ball around a lot. Let’s look at these targets and receptions...Marvin Jones 4/85 on 10 targets, he is a weekly starter in your line up right now. Golden Tate 7/41 on 7 targets, all short passes, thought he was more of a down field type, hoping to see a lot more yards vs a potential bye week flex option which he is shaping into slowly. Keep an eye on this, he was selected as a lot of folks WR2, think he might be the #2 option now at WR. Don’t want to overreact the 1st week but most were hoping for more than 10 yds a catch. TE Eric Ebron caught all 5 targets for 46/TD, if he is on the waiver wire and you own Barnidge for example, uh go get this guy because he is a part of the offense, also you should note that he won’t catch 100% of his targets every week so temper the enthusiasm just a smidge. Boldin had 3/30 something, caught his targets but not a real threat to hinder Jones.
Abdullah and Riddick both had 5 targets and I expect the RB targets to continue. They both caught all of them and they both had about 60yds and a TD just thru the air. Abdullah 12/63 and Riddick had 45 and a TD so both of them on any given week will score for you. I expect the Titans to look a little softer on defense than when they stacked 8 into the box most of the game vs the Vikes and still they lost by almost double digits. They are going to get spread out and exploited this week IMHO, I would be doubling down on Lions this week. I drafted Stafford as my QB2 after about 14 were off the board, he’s now my QB1 and this offense looks different without Megatron, I kind of like it better. He doesn’t have the immediate 50 yd score at his disposal just yet but he is running a nice offense that seems to be able to hit you from many different directions. The Lions might be a fringe playoff team, I could see 10 wins if they can continue to play well on offense.
Final Score: Detroit 31...Tennessee 17
Kansas City at Houston -2 (43.5)
Osweiler threw a terrible interception early in the Chicago game and it looked like it might be a long season. He settled in and although still looked a little shaky at times, he delivered when guys were open, he missed a couple times as well but there is so much talent at WR that he just needs to get it in the window or around it and these guys can go get it. This is not a well oiled machine by any stretch and KC has a decent defense, they perked up once they got in the hole, but the fact is Keenan Allen was having success, Travis Benjamin too early so I gotta believe DeAndre Hopkins and the rookie Fuller are looking like pretty strong plays.
Fuller had 11 targets, 5/107/Td, and that was just his 1st game, lookout! Hopkins had 8 targets, reeled in 5/55/Td, owners might grumble but trust me if Fuller keeps it up, big days ahead for Hopkins who is still the better WR right now. Fuller still has to prove he can beat a double team, hold on to the football, take a big hit and bounce right back, it’s a long road but we’re very excited about what we see early on in this offense which is bound to get better as they play more games together. The talent is there.
Lamar Miller had a lot of touches, 32 including 28 carries, that’s a lot and I saw him bottled up quite a bit and these are the kind of carries that wear a RB down over a season. I just am making a point that the Texans need a 2nd guy but Erving looked nervous when he was on the field. Miller cannot survive 500 touches IMHO but we’ll see. They don’t want Osweiler throwing 40-50 times a game either. Miller had 32 touches, the guy on the other dies of the field had 18 and seemed like he did a lot more with his. Miller won’t survive if he is needed 32 times a week. But Lamar Miller owners have to be delighted that he is such a focal point of the offense.
Alex Smith 360/2TD/1Int+15/TD on the ground, he was 4th this past week. I think you gotta think about a QB2 on your roster, he’s on waivers in mine. At the same time I started questioning how often the Chiefs will need Smith to do what he did. Even still, the Chiefs are going to be winning or in tight ball games most of the way.
Spencer Ware was all that and a bag of chips. He proved he has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and if he is given in the range of 18-22 touches a week he will be very productive. He doesn’t need 75% of the touches, he only needs about half but the fact is almost nobody but Ware got carries this past week. I would say West will see more action when the Chiefs are nursing a 10-14 pt lead, those are the weeks that West will see a lot more balls IMHO. I thought I would trade Ware but I believe with Charles being brought back slowly that you have a good 2-4 weeks of smooth sailing ahead. Charles isn’t even practicing or working with the first unit, most reports say he looks tentative and finding his way back. 2nd ACL tear so he might need more time. It might be Week 8 or 12 before Charles is back and 100%. 7/129 on 8 targets, most weeks he won’t do that but then you have to assume he will get more than 11 carries which he also racked up 70/TD on those. He is squarely a Top 5 play at the moment.
Maclin and Kelce each had 7 targets, Mac 5/63/TD, Kelce 5/74, and Conley had 7 targets but I think that is more of a product of them being behind. Ware-Maclin-Kelce in that order right now in this offense. Easy to understand.
Final Score: Kansas City 27...Houston 24, should be a potential playoff preview, not a long road trip for the Chiefs.
Miami at New England -6.5 (41.5)
A lot of folks asking me for reactions to the Miami defense and their overall performance as they played well enough to win vs Seattle but a couple miscues really hurt them and they allowed Seattle to drive the length of the field late to beat them.
The Good: Tannehill looked competent, he was hitting open receivers, he showed a little flash in the run game, he seemed to understand the offense pretty well or showed signs of what might be on the horizon. It wasn’t All Pro level but he faced the Seahawks and overall he wasn’t the reason Miami lost. Arian Foster was really enjoyable to watch run the ball and catch. As long as he remains healthy he is a solid RB2 week in week out and will sometimes crack the top 12, he looks great. Caroo played 85% of the snaps in Parker’s absence.
The Bad: Cameron dropped another ball he should have had but the absolute show stopper drop was Kenny Stills who missed what was a sure TD and made no excuses for it after the game. Now there was also a circus surrounding him a little for his protest prior to the game, I’m not going to comment on that. I’m enjoying doing this right now and I want to not address anything that isn’t really game related with this. I think he might have been a little unfocused, I hope he gets focused this week.
Because my team is facing the Pats, hard for me to be unbiased. Blount had a great night, showed he can rack up points even just carrying the ball 18-22 times a game. He will get a lot of touches with Brady out so enjoy him and then I might trade him because they won’t be handing off to him 22 times when Brady returns, not often for sure. I liked what I saw from Chris Hogan, he will get even better stats when Brady returns IMHO. He can work it downfield and Brady has lacked that in his arsenal for a while.
Final Score: New England 23...Miami 17, keep an eye on Suh
NY Jets at Buffalo Pk ‘Em (41)
Fitz had 189/2Td last week but I tell you he isn’t a good NFL QB. Please understand, with the amount of talent around him, he’s gonna have stats. But his passes this past weekend were not very good. His receivers do an incredible job of making him look at least average but if you look close, Fitz should be carrying a clipboard, he has some real limitations.
Alert: Quincy Enunwa was targeted 8 times and caught 7/54/TD. This is a guy you might like on your bench in a flex spot but understand he is still the #3 guy here. Marshall had 8 targets but only 3/32, Cinci was focused on stopping him and I think that added a little to Enunwa. Decker had 7 targets and caught only 2/37/Td, He and Marshall combined for just 5 catches on 15 targets...as I’m working this out I think we can tell that Enunwa is likely foolish to grab early on the waiver wire this week. Had Marshall and Decker caught a few more balls then Enunwa wouldn’t see as many targets or receptions, fewer opps except when they face tougher defenses where he is more likely to be the lone guy open on short stick routes.
Forte and Powell combined for 11 targets. Matt Forte caught 5/59 and 22/96 on the ground, that’s a 25+ avg type season, 400 touches, lot of touches for a guy his age, Jets plan is to ride him for all they can. Powell is simply relief but he did manage 10 yds a carry, certainly an anomaly.
For the Bills, all the talk is Sammy Watkins and rightly so. He had a pretty mediocre showing last week but seems injured and there also seems to be no end in sight. He re-injured the foot where he has a big screw, nothing is broken but he is in a lot of pain. How much can he play through because Rex says they are not shutting him down. My only concern is the health of Watkins and I feel bad for him. He needs to play if he can but he might be doing long term damage, tough spot to be in and I understand there is a lot of money at play but he’s under a rookie contract still. This situation concerns me.
I’m not sure what the next guy up will do in Buffalo but this offense looks terrible. McCoy managed to score a TD which helped. He is going to get a lot of touches as long as health stays good. Keep an eye on Charles Clay, maybe he can get 3-4 more targets, he has talent and can break tackles once he catches the ball. They paid him a lot of money, use him.
Cincinnati managed to rack up a lot of yards against the Jets secondary but I think AJ Green had a major part of that, Buffalo might not have that type of weapon healthy on their roster. Even a healthy Watkins would not exploit the way AJ did. Quick turnaround will also keep the score kind of low.
Final Score: NY Jets 20...Buffalo 17, I actually see the Jets winning this one easily. They should have won against Cinci and it just didn’t work out. The Bills look like an 0-2 team, the Jets look like a solid potential playoff team especially in the OL/DL/Front 7/SkillPos but Buffalo does not.
Tennessee at Detroit -5.5(47)
Let’s deal with the passing game for the Titans first. Looks like the early returns for Tajae Sharpe are pretty good including 7/76 on 11 targets. Defenses are going to wisen up to the rookie and force others to produce more. Andre Johnson had 7 targets for 3/30, he was the next guy at WR so I am concerned this isn’t enough for Mariota to really flourish. Rishard Mathews only 4 targets, I might think about cutting him if you own him, certainly better options if you compete in leagues where only about 60 WRs are rostered. Not sure Mathews is even a top 75 guy right now, Johnson either ‘nuff said about both of them. TE Delanie Walker had 3/42 on just 5 targets, no real cause for concern but it was more of a dud this past weekend. I know he is starting on a lot of your rosters.
Murray 13/42 vs Henry 5/3 in a game where they were behind much of the game. I think this will change, I wouldn’t overreact to this. The Lions are not terrible in rush defense but they should be a little softer than the Vikes last week. For now though you should bench Henry but he did catch 2/41 on just 2 targets, he showed in open space what a beast he is. Look for more touches especially if the Titans continue to lose football games.
The Lions come out and get the win in Indy, they looked good doing it despite giving up a lot of points on defense. They are exciting and they spray the ball around a lot. Let’s look at these targets and receptions...Marvin Jones 4/85 on 10 targets, he is a weekly starter in your line up right now. Golden Tate 7/41 on 7 targets, all short passes, thought he was more of a down field type, hoping to see a lot more yards vs a potential bye week flex option which he is shaping into slowly. Keep an eye on this, he was selected as a lot of folks WR2, think he might be the #2 option now at WR. Don’t want to overreact the 1st week but most were hoping for more than 10 yds a catch. TE Eric Ebron caught all 5 targets for 46/TD, if he is on the waiver wire and you own Barnidge for example, uh go get this guy because he is a part of the offense, also you should note that he won’t catch 100% of his targets every week so temper the enthusiasm just a smidge. Boldin had 3/30 something, caught his targets but not a real threat to hinder Jones.
Abdullah and Riddick both had 5 targets and I expect the RB targets to continue. They both caught all of them and they both had about 60yds and a TD just thru the air. Abdullah 12/63 and Riddick had 45 and a TD so both of them on any given week will score for you. I expect the Titans to look a little softer on defense than when they stacked 8 into the box most of the game vs the Vikes and still they lost by almost double digits. They are going to get spread out and exploited this week IMHO, I would be doubling down on Lions this week. I drafted Stafford as my QB2 after about 14 were off the board, he’s now my QB1 and this offense looks different without Megatron, I kind of like it better. He doesn’t have the immediate 50 yd score at his disposal just yet but he is running a nice offense that seems to be able to hit you from many different directions. The Lions might be a fringe playoff team, I could see 10 wins if they can continue to play well on offense.
Final Score: Detroit 31...Tennessee 17
Kansas City at Houston -2 (43.5)
Osweiler threw a terrible interception early in the Chicago game and it looked like it might be a long season. He settled in and although still looked a little shaky at times, he delivered when guys were open, he missed a couple times as well but there is so much talent at WR that he just needs to get it in the window or around it and these guys can go get it. This is not a well oiled machine by any stretch and KC has a decent defense, they perked up once they got in the hole, but the fact is Keenan Allen was having success, Travis Benjamin too early so I gotta believe DeAndre Hopkins and the rookie Fuller are looking like pretty strong plays.
Fuller had 11 targets, 5/107/Td, and that was just his 1st game, lookout! Hopkins had 8 targets, reeled in 5/55/Td, owners might grumble but trust me if Fuller keeps it up, big days ahead for Hopkins who is still the better WR right now. Fuller still has to prove he can beat a double team, hold on to the football, take a big hit and bounce right back, it’s a long road but we’re very excited about what we see early on in this offense which is bound to get better as they play more games together. The talent is there.
Lamar Miller had a lot of touches, 32 including 28 carries, that’s a lot and I saw him bottled up quite a bit and these are the kind of carries that wear a RB down over a season. I just am making a point that the Texans need a 2nd guy but Erving looked nervous when he was on the field. Miller cannot survive 500 touches IMHO but we’ll see. They don’t want Osweiler throwing 40-50 times a game either. Miller had 32 touches, the guy on the other dies of the field had 18 and seemed like he did a lot more with his. Miller won’t survive if he is needed 32 times a week. But Lamar Miller owners have to be delighted that he is such a focal point of the offense.
Alex Smith 360/2TD/1Int+15/TD on the ground, he was 4th this past week. I think you gotta think about a QB2 on your roster, he’s on waivers in mine. At the same time I started questioning how often the Chiefs will need Smith to do what he did. Even still, the Chiefs are going to be winning or in tight ball games most of the way.
Spencer Ware was all that and a bag of chips. He proved he has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and if he is given in the range of 18-22 touches a week he will be very productive. He doesn’t need 75% of the touches, he only needs about half but the fact is almost nobody but Ware got carries this past week. I would say West will see more action when the Chiefs are nursing a 10-14 pt lead, those are the weeks that West will see a lot more balls IMHO. I thought I would trade Ware but I believe with Charles being brought back slowly that you have a good 2-4 weeks of smooth sailing ahead. Charles isn’t even practicing or working with the first unit, most reports say he looks tentative and finding his way back. 2nd ACL tear so he might need more time. It might be Week 8 or 12 before Charles is back and 100%. 7/129 on 8 targets, most weeks he won’t do that but then you have to assume he will get more than 11 carries which he also racked up 70/TD on those. He is squarely a Top 5 play at the moment.
Maclin and Kelce each had 7 targets, Mac 5/63/TD, Kelce 5/74, and Conley had 7 targets but I think that is more of a product of them being behind. Ware-Maclin-Kelce in that order right now in this offense. Easy to understand.
Final Score: Kansas City 27...Houston 24, should be a potential playoff preview, not a long road trip for the Chiefs.
Miami at New England -6.5 (41.5)
A lot of folks asking me for reactions to the Miami defense and their overall performance as they played well enough to win vs Seattle but a couple miscues really hurt them and they allowed Seattle to drive the length of the field late to beat them.
The Good: Tannehill looked competent, he was hitting open receivers, he showed a little flash in the run game, he seemed to understand the offense pretty well or showed signs of what might be on the horizon. It wasn’t All Pro level but he faced the Seahawks and overall he wasn’t the reason Miami lost. Arian Foster was really enjoyable to watch run the ball and catch. As long as he remains healthy he is a solid RB2 week in week out and will sometimes crack the top 12, he looks great. Caroo played 85% of the snaps in Parker’s absence.
The Bad: Cameron dropped another ball he should have had but the absolute show stopper drop was Kenny Stills who missed what was a sure TD and made no excuses for it after the game. Now there was also a circus surrounding him a little for his protest prior to the game, I’m not going to comment on that. I’m enjoying doing this right now and I want to not address anything that isn’t really game related with this. I think he might have been a little unfocused, I hope he gets focused this week.
Because my team is facing the Pats, hard for me to be unbiased. Blount had a great night, showed he can rack up points even just carrying the ball 18-22 times a game. He will get a lot of touches with Brady out so enjoy him and then I might trade him because they won’t be handing off to him 22 times when Brady returns, not often for sure. I liked what I saw from Chris Hogan, he will get even better stats when Brady returns IMHO. He can work it downfield and Brady has lacked that in his arsenal for a while.
Final Score: New England 23...Miami 17, keep an eye on Suh
