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I traded him straight up for Kupp about 2-3 months ago in one of my PPR dynasty leagues. Yes there are Lindsay doubters (probably those that drafted Freeman mostly
) but there are lots of believers (like me) who will absolutely give a 1st rounder for him. Are you sure? I saw this on reddit: 14% 8 man boxes compared to 36% (2nd most in the NFL) by Freeman
It looks like that redditor got his info here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#yards
It's less about replacement for me and more about why would I possibly trade a guy I believe in or has proven their worth as a valuable piece on my roster for a rookie I MIGHT believe in if I even get who I want at that pick 30 spots away or more. It's across leagues.
I don't at get your stance at all. I roster plenty of players I don't believe in fully, or even want to really roster. You can't possibly claim that every player you roster is "obviously a favorite of mine, or I wouldn't roster him." I don't at all believe that to be realistically possible. More realistically is I would guess that some of the players you roster simply have more value than what's left on the waiver wire. Or some of those player's you may have once believed in have had injuries, lack of production, or a situational change that has impacted your valuation of that player. But to say the players you roster "are all worth 2nds or more" is out there in fantasy land IMO.
In one of my leagues a few weeks ago he was traded along with Royce and Russell Wilson for Baker and the 1.4. In another league a few days ago: Lindsay, Gus Edwards, and Hayden Hurst for Hyde, Yeldon and Ebron. i wasn't involved in either.
That still leads to the belief in a player. It isn't fantasy land when late round picks are literally useless cloggers. Someone is going to point to all these great picks you can find in those rounds, but it isn't a viable strategy to stock pile these picks. You want talented players and studs at all positions. That's basically the name of the game right? How are you going to do that if you continually flip flop your end of bench spots for 3rds and 4ths or later? It's a constant cycle if you do that. What's the point in me selling a guy for a late round pick? Maybe you like a guy at that point in time OTC or something, but your just exchanging 1 flier for another. And then a year later nothing's changed or their situation is worse so you do it again. Oh look at that you're 2 years in and still did nothing with your roster.
That 1st trade is interesting. I can see a case for either side, but would probably slightly prefer Mayfield and the 1.4.
Yeah, I'm still baffled by the logic. Guess it's just a difference of opinion on the value of players already on your roster vs future picks. Warren was one of those "late round useless cloggers" just a year ago (even undrafted in some rookie drafts), so just the fact that he's now on your roster now doesn't mean he's magically in some different value tier than the rookies in that range in this year's draft. But your stance is that he's worth at least a 3rd to you, because you're rostering him and believe in him as an UDFA and late round rookie pick that did zero on the field in Year 1? That's your prerogative, but you're in the tiny minority that wouldn't trade Warren for a 3rd in this year's draft. Because when you make that trade, you're trading a very specific asset with minimal value (an undrafted free agent RB that's proven nothing one year into his career, on a team that has and will continue to undoubtedly upgrade at the position) for a rookie pick that gives you numerous options (drafting the best player available out of 10's of players remaining at numerous positions, trading the pick for a veteran player that holds more value and/or chance for success than Warren, trade the pick for a better future pick, etc).
Just need better dynasty leagues. I traded the 1.11 for him a few weeks ago and think I got a steal.
All of this. Couldn’t have said it better. The infatuation with Guice has made little sense for quite a while.
that had complications in his recovery, and is part of an offense led by
That’s one of my biggest problems with Guice. The qbs and wrs are brutal and it could be like that for a while.
I'm buying all day at these prices. Situations change fast in the NFL but talent prevails.
I think the argument is that Guice was a better talent than his draft stock would indicate, that he slipped due to character concerns, which are more important to NFL teams than fantasy owners. And last year was a crazy deep RB class. Jacobs might not even go round 1 this year, with no competition.
I pretty much agree with all of this.
Sort of but qb and wr isn’t an easy fix. I’d buy at 1.06 prices too but that’s about it.
What prices are you buying at, the 1.06?Hankmoody said:
I know you didn’t ask me, but to add my .02:
This valuation seems right to me as well.
This is exactly where I'm at right now. Put another way if I was in a league that held it's draft before the NFL draft and Guice was in the pool I'd take Jacobs at 1 and Guice at 2.
Saquon Barkley is considered the consensus 1.01 in all of dynasty right now and he has a QB that's only marginally better than these two pieces of ####. They Giants receivers are only marginally better than the trash that Washington has, and I'd say that Washington has far better TE and OL.
I own both in multiple leagues and Cook on a little more then half of my teams, like both and think both are about to take a step up but I'd take Mixon. Younger, to me a little better, has been more durable and Bengals seem to be a little more aggressive on addressing OL issues then Vikings have been.
Barkley is in a different talent stratosphere than Guice, so I think comparing anyone to what Barkley was able to do in a mediocre setting is nonrelevant.
At this exact time last year there was talk of Guice being a late 1st in a stacked class. At the moment there is talk of Jacobs going in the late 1st in a class almost devoid of top end talent. So even if Jacobs does actually get taken there, it won't be all that telling. But if he does not, and he rightfully goes a round or so later, then this line of thinking will quickly die off. Personally, I don't expect to see Jacobs get drafted in the 1st. If he does, it would be a Penny-esque surprise to me. I don't really expect to see any of these guys go before pick 40, but it only takes one team to draft need ahead of BPA...
There was a gulf of value between 1.01 and 1.02 last year. Not so much between 1.02 and 1.03.
It's going to get worse on Thursday night, too.
Yea but that was a big wide divide. I had picks 2 and 3 in a league last year and offered both for 1.1. If I could have picked Guice twice I'd still have offered both for him.
yeah I'm surprised to read that. if I'm doing a start up today I am taking guice over Jacobs, acl reconstruction and all
Prior to the draft, in April's Mizelle ADP, Barkley was #8 overall. Guice was #26. Rookies #3 and 4 were #46 and 48, respectively. I see three distinct tiers, with Guice roughly in the middle.
Ah, yes, that's correct as of April. I was thinking in terms of the rookie drafts I witnessed which were after the NFL draft.
Well, all the calculus changes as of Thursday night, until then it's all speculation. Once we have teams to put next to these rookies' names, lots of rankings will be significantly different.
Jacobs' tape was good and we're operating under the assumption that he's a 1st round pick. He also projects to catch more balls than Guice, which is big in PPR leagues. Jacobs' situation is likely to be better, too. I don't think it's fair to dismiss that as rookie fever.FF Ninja said:
You are right that it's not apples to apples to compare Jacobs' pre-draft projected draft capital to Guice's actual draft capital, but that's all the information we have to work with right now. How people projected the NFL felt about Guice leading up to the draft isn't really relevant to me anymore because we now know how they actually felt about him. We don't know that yet about Jacobs so the things we've been hearing and the places he's been mocked are all we have to work with. You are correct that if Jacobs falls to the late 2nd things change a lot and it may end up being presumptive of me to already be calling him a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.FF Ninja said:
I've seen a lot of people say this, but it's worth noting that Peterson's production dropped off pretty precipitously after the Alex Smith injury, and they'll be without Smith again this year.
That's fair, and if Jacobs does indeed get drafted where he's being projected he will be an interesting experiment in the disparity between measurables/production and what scouts are telling us they are seeing on tape.
Would they? I'm certain using last year's March evaluation of Guice people would prefer him. But would the NFL? It was a strong class but it's not like Kerryon Johnson was some great prospect (it seems like the NFL likes Jacobs a lot more than they liked Kerryon as a prospect) and he went ahead of Guice.
I have Mixon a tier ahead of Cook, right now. He's a year younger and comes with less injury risk. I think Cook has better intincts and Mixon is the better athlete - so based on talent, I think they're neck and neck.Pwingles said:
Say what now? Personally, I wasn't sure who I'd take at 1.02 last year (purely hypothetical since I didn't draft there), but it was neck-and-neck between Chubb and pre-ACL Guice. So obviously I've got no reservations about Chubb being a full time guy. 
