Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
spider321

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Harris replaces burkhead so that's all a wash.

 

You can't count the playoff stats alongside the regular season stats.  They're entirely different beasts.

Right, it’s actually even more impressive that the rookie put those stats up during the playoffs. His 4 game trend is even higher. They should count as double.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What about Darrell Henderson vs Kareem Hunt ?

The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.

I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.

I can't decide which makes more sense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Who are your value RB's people are buying for compete now teams?  I feel like most of them are way too risky for the most part when in the past you could project a decent role.  I'm talking like bye week fillers, maybe even flex spots.

The only ones I can think of are Cohen (now with the Montgomery vulture at least a little), James White, and Peyton Barber.  Maybe Chris Thompson but he could easily be bench guy now with Guice healthy.  

Damien Williams seems like the poster child for this.

Also probably Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:

Right, it’s actually even more impressive that the rookie put those stats up during the playoffs. His 4 game trend is even higher. They should count as double.

And David tyree went on to have many other game clinching helmet catches.

I mean things that have absolutely no baring over the regular season happen over the playoffs. Coaches will use every trick they have, throw in any different wrinkle, or do an onside kick to start the second half of a superbowl.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What about Darrell Henderson vs Kareem Hunt ?

The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.

I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.

I can't decide which makes more sense. 

I'd want to be the owner of Chubb and Hunt.  In a year you could be the owner of 2 starting fantasy RBs.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

And David tyree went on to have many other game clinching helmet catches.

I mean things that have absolutely no baring over the regular season happen over the playoffs. Coaches will use every trick they have, throw in any different wrinkle, or do an onside kick to start the second half of a superbowl.

 

Ridiculous comparisons.  You’re comparing trick plays to 71 carries (not trick plays) over 3 games.  Wrinkles and onside kicks happen during the regular season as well. Do you have data that suggests it’s more likely during the playoffs and even if you do how that is relevant here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What about Darrell Henderson vs Kareem Hunt ?

The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.

I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.

I can't decide which makes more sense. 

Under no circumstances would I move Chubb for Gurley, so there is that. Hunt could become a workhorse again somewhere but I doubt it is in Cleveland. I don't know what they're going to do with him but I still love Chubb there longterm. Henderson vs Hunt is probably a legitimate debate but your question is which backfield do you want to lock up. Personally I would just hold Chubb and Henderson. 

Edited by barackdhouse
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What about Darrell Henderson vs Kareem Hunt ?

The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.

I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.

I can't decide which makes more sense. 

I value them as:

Gurley>Chubb>>Hunt>>>Henderson. 

I may end up eating crow about it, but man I think people are overreacting about Gurley. He's still a top-5 RB in my opinion. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps this question was asked in recent past and I have been wanting to ask this question. What is everyone's take on Royce Freeman?  I feel he's the biggest winner with return to zone-blocking offense in Broncos with new offensive coach how had been recently hired from 49ers.   If anything, I think newly hired HC Fanigo will want to be conservative with his offense without making his defensive team wearing out throughout season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:

Ridiculous comparisons.  You’re comparing trick plays to 71 carries (not trick plays) over 3 games.  Wrinkles and onside kicks happen during the regular season as well. Do you have data that suggests it’s more likely during the playoffs and even if you do how that is relevant here?

Sony's playoff pace would be almost 400 carries through a 16 game regular season.  Do you really think the Pats are going to give anyone, much less a guy who might have bum knees, that many carries over a 16 game season?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Does Matt Ryan have any real dynasty value today even in a PPR 6 pt per passing TD start 1 QB league?

I was offered Ryan & Diggs for my Doctson, AJG & Ingram. My only QB is Stafford.

I am hoping Murray will fall to me in the late 1st of our coming rookie draft, but if I trade for a QB I will likely draft someone else.

I see QB in a 1QB system as replaceable.  Ryan (now 34 yo) is nice but he did so well last year for 2 major (IR) reasons... Def lost 3 key starters and RB D Freeman so passing was their fall back option.  I don't think he throws more than 515 passes this year unless they lose RB's again.  Def made them play catch up too often.  

In most 6pt TD scoring systems, Ryan was QB2 or 3, but when he throws fewer than 520 passes, he was QB15 range (2017).  Not worth giving up AJG & Ingram IMO. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

What about Darrell Henderson vs Kareem Hunt ?

The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.

I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.

I can't decide which makes more sense. 

I'd rather own both Chubb and Henderson, TBH.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What is Larry Fitzgerald being traded for in PPR dynasties this year? I imagine he finally retires after this year. Is he worth a 2nd rounder?

I got pick number 30 for him on the eve of my rookie draft, and was happy to get it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Perhaps this question was asked in recent past and I have been wanting to ask this question. What is everyone's take on Royce Freeman?  I feel he's the biggest winner with return to zone-blocking offense in Broncos with new offensive coach how had been recently hired from 49ers.   If anything, I think newly hired HC Fanigo will want to be conservative with his offense without making his defensive team wearing out throughout season.  

The ZBS should help Freeman become more productive, but his biggest concern is getting past Lindsay, and I have no reason to believe that is going to happen. That said, I agree Denver could be among the NFL's most run heavy teams, so its very possible that Lindsay is an RB2, and Freeman is a solid flex play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Perhaps this question was asked in recent past and I have been wanting to ask this question. What is everyone's take on Royce Freeman?  I feel he's the biggest winner with return to zone-blocking offense in Broncos with new offensive coach how had been recently hired from 49ers.   If anything, I think newly hired HC Fanigo will want to be conservative with his offense without making his defensive team wearing out throughout season.  

Lindsay is better than freeman and if he is healthy he will prove it again on the field regardless of blocking scheme....just imo

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, travdogg said:

I value them as:

Gurley>Chubb>>Hunt>>>Henderson. 

I may end up eating crow about it, but man I think people are overreacting about Gurley. He's still a top-5 RB in my opinion. 

I don’t think we have enough information on Gurley’s knee to have informed opinions. It all pretty much comes down to individual risk tolerance and roster situation.

Owners who value immediate production over longevity - the win today and figure out tomorrow tomorrow types - are going to hold, if not target Gurley. Owners who value security and build for the future are not going to want anything to do with him. Those of us in the middle will likely play the waiting game.

I can’t fault anyone for where they come down on Gurley.  It’s a weird situation. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

I see QB in a 1QB system as replaceable.  Ryan (now 34 yo) is nice but he did so well last year for 2 major (IR) reasons... Def lost 3 key starters and RB D Freeman so passing was their fall back option.  I don't think he throws more than 515 passes this year unless they lose RB's again.  Def made them play catch up too often.  

In most 6pt TD scoring systems, Ryan was QB2 or 3, but when he throws fewer than 520 passes, he was QB15 range (2017).  Not worth giving up AJG & Ingram IMO. 

This is an oddly low number.  Ryan hasn't thrown that few passes in literally a DECADE.  

Also the defense still stinks and Freeman gets hurt all the time.  I'm also not convinced that the Freeman injury is what made them pass oriented last year given that Coleman is arguably only a slight downgrade if not a lateral move from Freeman.  If anything a Freeman injury this year would leave them far worse off at RB than they were last year.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Lindsay is better than freeman and if he is healthy he will prove it again on the field regardless of blocking scheme....just imo

Isn't the biggest knock on Lindsay his vision?

Edited by cloppbeast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What do you guys think of Jarvis Landry?  There's a lot of well deserved optimism for CLE in general, but it seems pretty crowded now so I'm not high on Landry.  Wondering what everyone else thinks about his production going forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RC94 said:

What do you guys think of Jarvis Landry?  There's a lot of well deserved optimism for CLE in general, but it seems pretty crowded now so I'm not high on Landry.  Wondering what everyone else thinks about his production going forward.

I think he's a really sneaky value right now. He's seen #1 coverage with poor QB play for 90% of his career. last year was the first time he'd ever had a good QB. Now with Beckham on board, and a quality run game as well, I'm expecting Landry to dominate the middle of the field. Like 75+% catch rate.  Essentially the Welker to Beckham's Moss.

I'm expecting WR2 numbers, and a lot of consistency. Rookie wise, I'd take Landry over anyone other than Jacobs. He's still young, and in the best offense of his career. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Isn't the biggest knock on Lindsay his vision?

I’d call it a strength of his.

Edit: and that seems to be the consensus, Googling “phillip+lindsay+vision”.

Edited by Concept Coop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, travdogg said:

He's seen #1 coverage

Has he though? I don't think any DC has ever said, "Ok guys, we gotta focus on stopping Landry." He's the Eddie George of WRs. Instead of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, he's 9 yards and a cloud of dust. The guy has 309 targets in the past 2 years and only 1,963 yards and 11 TDs. An average of 155 targets, 982 yards, and 5.5 TDs. At the other end of the spectrum, Lockett had 71 targets, 965 yards, and 10 TDs. 

By May's ADP, Landry is going WR27 to Lockett's WR29. They are the same age. AR15 is WR24. Boyd is WR26. Pettis is WR33. To me, Landry is still kind of pricey. Does anyone really believe he's going to hit 1000 yards again in his career?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Has he though? I don't think any DC has ever said, "Ok guys, we gotta focus on stopping Landry." He's the Eddie George of WRs. Instead of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, he's 9 yards and a cloud of dust. The guy has 309 targets in the past 2 years and only 1,963 yards and 11 TDs. An average of 155 targets, 982 yards, and 5.5 TDs. At the other end of the spectrum, Lockett had 71 targets, 965 yards, and 10 TDs. 

By May's ADP, Landry is going WR27 to Lockett's WR29. They are the same age. AR15 is WR24. Boyd is WR26. Pettis is WR33. To me, Landry is still kind of pricey. Does anyone really believe he's going to hit 1000 yards again in his career?

Plus he's always played the slot and a lot of teams don't move their best CB into the slot even if that's where their opponents "best" WR plays.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Has he though? I don't think any DC has ever said, "Ok guys, we gotta focus on stopping Landry." He's the Eddie George of WRs. Instead of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, he's 9 yards and a cloud of dust. The guy has 309 targets in the past 2 years and only 1,963 yards and 11 TDs. An average of 155 targets, 982 yards, and 5.5 TDs. At the other end of the spectrum, Lockett had 71 targets, 965 yards, and 10 TDs. 

By May's ADP, Landry is going WR27 to Lockett's WR29. They are the same age. AR15 is WR24. Boyd is WR26. Pettis is WR33. To me, Landry is still kind of pricey. Does anyone really believe he's going to hit 1000 yards again in his career?

WR27 is Landry's worst finish in his career in PPR.  That was his rookie year when he only had 112 targets.  If that's the kind of volume you expect for him this year, then I guess I understand why you don't want him.

I see him as a spectacular option for a WR3, who will likely put up high-end WR2 numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

WR27 is Landry's worst finish in his career in PPR.  That was his rookie year when he only had 112 targets.  If that's the kind of volume you expect for him this year, then I guess I understand why you don't want him.

I see him as a spectacular option for a WR3, who will likely put up high-end WR2 numbers.

His points have been propped up by target volume, which is unlikely to continue. He was WR19 in points last year, but WR8 in targets. Points per game (the better indicator of performance), he was WR26 last year (his rookie year he was WR37 in ppg). WR26 is not high end WR2 numbers.

If I was a Browns fan, I'd rather see Njoku getting involved in the passing game than see Landry getting 110+ targets. 

I'm sure the Browns offense will be quite different in 2019, but last year they targeted the RB 111 times, WR 336 times, and TE 113 times. With Chubb, Njoku, Callaway, and Higgins all young and improving, I don't see room for Landry to get 130 targets if OBJ gets 140+. It would require an injury for that to happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Who are your value RB's people are buying for compete now teams?  I feel like most of them are way too risky for the most part when in the past you could project a decent role.  I'm talking like bye week fillers, maybe even flex spots.

The only ones I can think of are Cohen (now with the Montgomery vulture at least a little), James White, and Peyton Barber.  Maybe Chris Thompson but he could easily be bench guy now with Guice healthy.  

The two that I've traded for are Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber.

Other cheap depth options: LeSean McCoy, Chris Thompson, Mike Davis, CJ Anderson.

Bumping up a price tier, there's Lamar Miller, Nyheim Hines, Latavius Murray, James White, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen.

Even higher prices: Chris Carson, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.

Each of these lists is in order; McCoy, Miller, and Carson are the guys who I think I'd be most likely to pull off a trade that I liked for.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Anyone actually trade Landry lately?

Here are trades I saw, not involved ("A" is same person different leagues)

* A gets: 2019 1st round pick 1.3 #3
* B gets: Jarvis Landry WR CLE, Jared Cook TE NO; 2019 1st round pick 1.10 #10, 2019 4th round pick 4.10 #46

* C gets: Jarvis Landry WR CLE; 2019 2nd round pick 2.5 #17
* A gets: 2020 1st round pick 1.12 #12, 2019 2nd round pick 2.12 #24, 2019 2nd round pick 2.1 #13
 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ZWK said:

The two that I've traded for are Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber.

Other cheap depth options: LeSean McCoy, Chris Thompson, Mike Davis, CJ Anderson.

Bumping up a price tier, there's Lamar Miller, Nyheim Hines, Latavius Murray, James White, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen.

Even higher prices: Chris Carson, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.

Each of these lists is in order; McCoy, Miller, and Carson are the guys who I think I'd be most likely to pull off a trade that I liked for.

Latavius Murray has been flying under the radar a bit. A nice RB3/flex in standard scoring and could be valuable if Kamara misses any time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ZWK said:

The two that I've traded for are Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber.

Other cheap depth options: LeSean McCoy, Chris Thompson, Mike Davis, CJ Anderson.

Bumping up a price tier, there's Lamar Miller, Nyheim Hines, Latavius Murray, James White, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen.

Even higher prices: Chris Carson, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.

Each of these lists is in order; McCoy, Miller, and Carson are the guys who I think I'd be most likely to pull off a trade that I liked for.

Carson is good value. His value was high at the end of last season because he ripped it up down the stretch. Now it's not as fresh in people's minds and the community is reverting to the assumption that Penny will usurp him. I've seen people trading 2nds for him. Legit top ten potential this year, only 24 years old, in a great situation with a great QB. He's not flashy and has low draft pedigree so you can get his production at a discount.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kind of a back ended bench guy, but one I've seen some rave buy now articles about, but I've also seen some "meh" responses in many forums.

 

Albert Wilson

 

Where do people put his value? 2020 3rd rounder? more? less? let someone else try that experiment? 

Edited by Dr. Dan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Kind of a back ended bench guy, but one I've seen some rave buy now articles about, but I've also seen some "meh" responses in many forums.

 

Albert Wilson

 

Where do people put his value? 2020 3rd rounder? more? less? let someone else try that experiment? 

I'm very high on Wilson as I don't see anyone else on that team catching the ball.  For some reason people keep talking up Parker when it's been obvious since his rookie year his heart just isn't in the game.

As for his value, I don't think he really has any. He's coming off an injury and only had a handful of good games before landing on ir, plus the aforementioned love of Parker.   You could probably get him as an afterthought in any trade, or even a last round pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Sony's playoff pace would be almost 400 carries through a 16 game regular season.  Do you really think the Pats are going to give anyone, much less a guy who might have bum knees, that many carries over a 16 game season?

No. I do not. And I never said they would...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Kind of a back ended bench guy, but one I've seen some rave buy now articles about, but I've also seen some "meh" responses in many forums.

 

Albert Wilson

 

Where do people put his value? 2020 3rd rounder? more? less? let someone else try that experiment? 

fwiw I offered a 3rd for him (pick 38 in a 14 teamer), and it was rejected. I ended up with Riley Ridley at the pick so :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Has he though? I don't think any DC has ever said, "Ok guys, we gotta focus on stopping Landry." He's the Eddie George of WRs. Instead of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, he's 9 yards and a cloud of dust. The guy has 309 targets in the past 2 years and only 1,963 yards and 11 TDs. An average of 155 targets, 982 yards, and 5.5 TDs. At the other end of the spectrum, Lockett had 71 targets, 965 yards, and 10 TDs. 

By May's ADP, Landry is going WR27 to Lockett's WR29. They are the same age. AR15 is WR24. Boyd is WR26. Pettis is WR33. To me, Landry is still kind of pricey. Does anyone really believe he's going to hit 1000 yards again in his career?

I think he'll hit it this year. 

Perhaps I misspoke earlier when I said he's seen #1 coverage, what I meant was that he's never benefited from another player drawing the defenses attention. I believe having a legit QB and an elite WR on the outside is going to result in Landry's per target numbers to spike. I don't think he'll see 155 targets, but I also don't think his yards will go down with fewer targets, because he'll catch a higher percentage of them, and have more space with them. I'd bet on Landry having a career high in YPC.  

I'm taking Landry over all those other WR's you listed, the only one I really even debated was Robinson.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I’d call it a strength of his.

Edit: and that seems to be the consensus, Googling “phillip+lindsay+vision”.

Idk, just remember some posters questioning Lindsay's vision in his thread. :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Anyone actually trade Landry lately?

traded him (and the 18 rookie pick) in a non ppr for Corey Davis (and the #14).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, ZWK said:

The two that I've traded for are Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber.

Other cheap depth options: LeSean McCoy, Chris Thompson, Mike Davis, CJ Anderson.

Bumping up a price tier, there's Lamar Miller, Nyheim Hines, Latavius Murray, James White, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen.

Even higher prices: Chris Carson, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.

Each of these lists is in order; McCoy, Miller, and Carson are the guys who I think I'd be most likely to pull off a trade that I liked for.

So Richard and Barber are probably worth 2nds to the right team, same with Shady, Thompson, Latavius, Ingram, Cohen, Carson I'd imagine.  I'd have a hard time paying that for what could be a good waiver pickup away from getting the same production.  

Then like you said you get to some of the more expensive ones like Lamar Miller, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.  What are they worth?  I see them all being replaced in a year, or at a minimum the team investing a 4th rounder or better in competition.  I'd have a very hard time paying a 1st (which I imagine what their owners would want).  I just wouldn't do it.  

Are there people that would actually pay those prices?  Cause I don't see it for myself but maybe I'm being too cautious.  There's so many questions surrounding that entire group.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I’d call it a strength of his.

Edit: and that seems to be the consensus, Googling “phillip+lindsay+vision”.

I'm surprised more people don't bring up Lindsay's size. The man is small. He could be an exception but being 190 and being productive would put him in a group that is historically quite small (pun intended)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

I'm surprised more people don't bring up Lindsay's size.

80% of his thread is people brining it up.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

I'm surprised more people don't bring up Lindsay's size. The man is small. He could be an exception but being 190 and being productive would put him in a group that is historically quite small (pun intended)

He’s an outlier already. He’s 14th in career rushing attempts in PAC-12 history. He led the nation in carries in 2017. He’s the only UDFA to rush for 1,000 yards as a rookie. Guys his size don’t do the things he’s done.

His size has to be accounted for - it’s the only reason he’s not an RB1 and Royce Freeman has any hope in Denver - but Philip Lindsay is not your typical 190 pound football player.

His size is a legitimate concern, as it’s going to take the right coach to try their luck giving him 20 carries a game. But I’m not sure he’s any less likely to hold up than Chris Johnson was. I’m obviously very high on him, but give me the game changer with workload questions over bigger guys who have yet to flash game changing ability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

So Richard and Barber are probably worth 2nds to the right team, same with Shady, Thompson, Latavius, Ingram, Cohen, Carson I'd imagine.  I'd have a hard time paying that for what could be a good waiver pickup away from getting the same production.  

Then like you said you get to some of the more expensive ones like Lamar Miller, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.  What are they worth?  I see them all being replaced in a year, or at a minimum the team investing a 4th rounder or better in competition.  I'd have a very hard time paying a 1st (which I imagine what their owners would want).  I just wouldn't do it.  

Are there people that would actually pay those prices?  Cause I don't see it for myself but maybe I'm being too cautious.  There's so many questions surrounding that entire group.  

I'd love to get Carson for a 2nd. I see him as being on the same tier as Guice/Sanders/Montgomery for dynasty, and more valuable than those guys for this season. He has been an above average starting RB in the NFL, and if he can hold Penny off then he could keep doing that for years.

With guys like Richard, Barber, Shady, and Thompson I wouldn't give more than a 3rd. Or I might try to get them as a throw-in in a bigger trade. The McCoy owner might see him as a RB on his last legs (and quite possibly 2 years past his last season as a viable starter) and be looking to get anything for him, especially if he is deep at RB or not a contender. And similarly with the others. If you shop around and you aren't too picky about which one you get, you have a decent shot at landing one of these guys for cheap.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I'd love to get Carson for a 2nd. I see him as being on the same tier as Guice/Sanders/Montgomery for dynasty, and more valuable than those guys for this season. He has been an above average starting RB in the NFL, and if he can hold Penny off then he could keep doing that for years.

I think Carson is worth more like a pick in the 1.6 to 1.9 range. The risks on him are more than just Penny. Do the Seahawks view RB as plug and play? They keep drafting them, and he is only under contract 2 more years. I think the chance he gets a long term contract are not just dependent on holding off Penny. Are they married to RBBC now? Carson may be an "above average starting RB" but I think Penny and (no longer there) Davis could be evaluated about the same based on last year. I view him as very similar to Sanders (both on good offenses that probably go RBBC to their detriment), but Sanders has the benefit of just starting his rookie contract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I think Carson is worth more like a pick in the 1.6 to 1.9 range. The risks on him are more than just Penny. Do the Seahawks view RB as plug and play? They keep drafting them, and he is only under contract 2 more years. I think the chance he gets a long term contract are not just dependent on holding off Penny. Are they married to RBBC now? Carson may be an "above average starting RB" but I think Penny and (no longer there) Davis could be evaluated about the same based on last year. I view him as very similar to Sanders (both on good offenses that probably go RBBC to their detriment), but Sanders has the benefit of just starting his rookie contract.

What are the chances that FA ends up being a boon for Carson, as it was for Lamar Miller a few years back? I’m not sure his contract expiring will be a bad thing. (Though it certainly could be.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are the chances that FA ends up being a boon for Carson, as it was for Lamar Miller a few years back? I’m not sure his contract expiring will be a bad thing. (Though it certainly could be.)

Lamar Miller put up 2 RB1 years in Miami before hitting FA. Certainly it's possible Carson could do that. If Carson performs at the higher end of possible outcomes in the next two seasons, he will secure long term value regardless of Penny. If he doesn't, he's not guaranteed anything more than Thomas Rawls was at this point in his career.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I think Carson is worth more like a pick in the 1.6 to 1.9 range. The risks on him are more than just Penny. Do the Seahawks view RB as plug and play? They keep drafting them, and he is only under contract 2 more years. I think the chance he gets a long term contract are not just dependent on holding off Penny. Are they married to RBBC now? Carson may be an "above average starting RB" but I think Penny and (no longer there) Davis could be evaluated about the same based on last year. I view him as very similar to Sanders (both on good offenses that probably go RBBC to their detriment), but Sanders has the benefit of just starting his rookie contract.

This is key. In today's NFL, you are either special or you are replaced after your rookie contract, left to sign in a RBBC. People were at one point pretty excited about owning guys like Hyde, Gio, Doug Martin, Latavius Murray, Alfred Morris, etc. in their first 2-3 years in the league. But it seems like 9 out of 10 marginal talents just get left for dead in free agency. I mean CJA was coming off a 1000 yard season and had to settle for a back-up job last year, showed he could still play on the Rams, and then still could only get a backup job the next cycle. Tevin Coleman owners all thought he was going to get a starting job in free agency, then RBBC. Some guys don't even make it to free agency. Jeremy Hill, Jordan Howard, and Eddie Lacy were fantasy scrubs after just 3 years. 

But when I say 9 out of 10, that means there are exceptions. Very few non-owners ever thought Lamar Miller was special, but he landed a starting job. I'm struggling to think of another middling talent that was signed to be a starter. McKinnon almost was if not for injury, but he isn't a great example since he didn't start much during his rookie contract.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

This is key. In today's NFL, you are either special or you are replaced after your rookie contract, left to sign in a RBBC. People were at one point pretty excited about owning guys like Hyde, Gio, Doug Martin, Latavius Murray, Alfred Morris, etc. in their first 2-3 years in the league. But it seems like 9 out of 10 marginal talents just get left for dead in free agency. I mean CJA was coming off a 1000 yard season and had to settle for a back-up job last year, showed he could still play on the Rams, and then still could only get a backup job the next cycle. Tevin Coleman owners all thought he was going to get a starting job in free agency, then RBBC. Some guys don't even make it to free agency. Jeremy Hill, Jordan Howard, and Eddie Lacy were fantasy scrubs after just 3 years. 

But when I say 9 out of 10, that means there are exceptions. Very few non-owners ever thought Lamar Miller was special, but he landed a starting job. I'm struggling to think of another middling talent that was signed to be a starter. McKinnon almost was if not for injury, but he isn't a great example since he didn't start much during his rookie contract.

I don't think it was FA that hurt these guys. Doug Martin didn't do anything after his extension and I don't think Hyde or Morris would have either. As you point out, a lot of them were done contributing before their rookie contracts were up - Hill, Lacy, Gio, Morris, etc. I think RBs still have some value on the market, if they appear to have juice left. Murray, Martin, McKinnon, and Miller were all signed to be the guy for their new teams. I don't think they were viewed as special, although Murray was coming off of a special season. 

But it is shocking how quickly the average NFL RB is past his prime - and the talented are not immune - MJD, Rice, Foster, CJ2k, and Charles were all but done at or before 28.

 

Edited by Concept Coop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I don't think it was FA that hurt these guys. Doug Martin didn't do anything after his extension and I don't think Hyde or Morris would have either. As you point out, a lot of them were done contributing before their rookie contracts were up - Hill, Lacy, Gio, Morris, etc. I think RBs still have some value on the market, if they appear have juice left. Murray, Martin, McKinnon, and Miller were all signed to be the guy for their new teams. I don't think they were viewed as special, although Murray was certainly coming off of a special season. 

But it is certainly shocking how quickly the average NFL RB is past his prime - and the talented are not immune - MJD, Rice, Foster, CJ2k, and Charles were all but done at or before 28.

I don't think many teams are willing to pay a lot for a starting RB. So if a guy is a non-special talent, they are likely to find themselves in a cheap contract that doesn't protect them from being replaced. Latavius might have been signed to be Minnesota's starter, but it was cheap enough that they didn't mind drafting Cook when he fell to them. Crowell was a pretty young FA and showed he had some juice, but I think he only got three or four million per year in free agency last year and even less this year. 

RB prime is a tricky subject. It's hard to tell if Rice was really done or if it was just a down year for him. For example, if the same thing had happened to McGahee after his age 29 season, we'd have said he was done and that's why he didn't get signed. But McGahee had an excellent age 30 season. Tomlinson looked washed up at 29 and 30, but playing behind a good line at age 31 made him look better. I think Foster would've still been good if not for the achilles tear. That's a career ender for most RBs. Then we've got Gore rushing for 4.6 ypa at age 35...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I don't think many teams are willing to pay a lot for a starting RB. So if a guy is a non-special talent, they are likely to find themselves in a cheap contract that doesn't protect them from being replaced. Latavius might have been signed to be Minnesota's starter, but it was cheap enough that they didn't mind drafting Cook when he fell to them. Crowell was a pretty young FA and showed he had some juice, but I think he only got three or four million per year in free agency last year and even less this year. 

I agree that RBs have little value on the market, that teams would rather go cheap. But that drives the price down, so teams can sign veteran starting RBs for cheap. TJ Yeldon and CJ Anderson and Carlos Hyde and Latavius Murray (etc.) aren't stuck in committees because they cost too much. They're stuck in committees because teams don't think they're starting caliber backs anymore (if ever). 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.