FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Damien Williams seems like the poster child for this.
Also probably Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Also probably Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
And David tyree went on to have many other game clinching helmet catches.
I mean things that have absolutely no baring over the regular season happen over the playoffs. Coaches will use every trick they have, throw in any different wrinkle, or do an onside kick to start the second half of a superbowl.
tkrull
Footballguy
I'd want to be the owner of Chubb and Hunt. In a year you could be the owner of 2 starting fantasy RBs.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Ridiculous comparisons. You’re comparing trick plays to 71 carries (not trick plays) over 3 games. Wrinkles and onside kicks happen during the regular season as well. Do you have data that suggests it’s more likely during the playoffs and even if you do how that is relevant here?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Under no circumstances would I move Chubb for Gurley, so there is that. Hunt could become a workhorse again somewhere but I doubt it is in Cleveland. I don't know what they're going to do with him but I still love Chubb there longterm. Henderson vs Hunt is probably a legitimate debate but your question is which backfield do you want to lock up. Personally I would just hold Chubb and Henderson.
Last edited by a moderator:
I value them as:
Gurley>Chubb>>Hunt>>>Henderson.
I may end up eating crow about it, but man I think people are overreacting about Gurley. He's still a top-5 RB in my opinion.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Perhaps this question was asked in recent past and I have been wanting to ask this question. What is everyone's take on Royce Freeman? I feel he's the biggest winner with return to zone-blocking offense in Broncos with new offensive coach how had been recently hired from 49ers. If anything, I think newly hired HC Fanigo will want to be conservative with his offense without making his defensive team wearing out throughout season.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Sony's playoff pace would be almost 400 carries through a 16 game regular season. Do you really think the Pats are going to give anyone, much less a guy who might have bum knees, that many carries over a 16 game season?
Birdie048
Footballguy
I see QB in a 1QB system as replaceable. Ryan (now 34 yo) is nice but he did so well last year for 2 major (IR) reasons... Def lost 3 key starters and RB D Freeman so passing was their fall back option. I don't think he throws more than 515 passes this year unless they lose RB's again. Def made them play catch up too often.
In most 6pt TD scoring systems, Ryan was QB2 or 3, but when he throws fewer than 520 passes, he was QB15 range (2017). Not worth giving up AJG & Ingram IMO.
I got pick number 30 for him on the eve of my rookie draft, and was happy to get it.
The ZBS should help Freeman become more productive, but his biggest concern is getting past Lindsay, and I have no reason to believe that is going to happen. That said, I agree Denver could be among the NFL's most run heavy teams, so its very possible that Lindsay is an RB2, and Freeman is a solid flex play.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Lindsay is better than freeman and if he is healthy he will prove it again on the field regardless of blocking scheme....just imo
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t think we have enough information on Gurley’s knee to have informed opinions. It all pretty much comes down to individual risk tolerance and roster situation.
Owners who value immediate production over longevity - the win today and figure out tomorrow tomorrow types - are going to hold, if not target Gurley. Owners who value security and build for the future are not going to want anything to do with him. Those of us in the middle will likely play the waiting game.
I can’t fault anyone for where they come down on Gurley. It’s a weird situation.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is an oddly low number. Ryan hasn't thrown that few passes in literally a DECADE.
Also the defense still stinks and Freeman gets hurt all the time. I'm also not convinced that the Freeman injury is what made them pass oriented last year given that Coleman is arguably only a slight downgrade if not a lateral move from Freeman. If anything a Freeman injury this year would leave them far worse off at RB than they were last year.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
I think he's a really sneaky value right now. He's seen #1 coverage with poor QB play for 90% of his career. last year was the first time he'd ever had a good QB. Now with Beckham on board, and a quality run game as well, I'm expecting Landry to dominate the middle of the field. Like 75+% catch rate. Essentially the Welker to Beckham's Moss.RC94 said:
I'm expecting WR2 numbers, and a lot of consistency. Rookie wise, I'd take Landry over anyone other than Jacobs. He's still young, and in the best offense of his career.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’d call it a strength of his.cloppbeast said:
Edit: and that seems to be the consensus, Googling “phillip+lindsay+vision”.
Last edited by a moderator:
Has he though? I don't think any DC has ever said, "Ok guys, we gotta focus on stopping Landry." He's the Eddie George of WRs. Instead of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, he's 9 yards and a cloud of dust. The guy has 309 targets in the past 2 years and only 1,963 yards and 11 TDs. An average of 155 targets, 982 yards, and 5.5 TDs. At the other end of the spectrum, Lockett had 71 targets, 965 yards, and 10 TDs.
By May's ADP, Landry is going WR27 to Lockett's WR29. They are the same age. AR15 is WR24. Boyd is WR26. Pettis is WR33. To me, Landry is still kind of pricey. Does anyone really believe he's going to hit 1000 yards again in his career?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Plus he's always played the slot and a lot of teams don't move their best CB into the slot even if that's where their opponents "best" WR plays.
WR27 is Landry's worst finish in his career in PPR. That was his rookie year when he only had 112 targets. If that's the kind of volume you expect for him this year, then I guess I understand why you don't want him.
I see him as a spectacular option for a WR3, who will likely put up high-end WR2 numbers.
His points have been propped up by target volume, which is unlikely to continue. He was WR19 in points last year, but WR8 in targets. Points per game (the better indicator of performance), he was WR26 last year (his rookie year he was WR37 in ppg). WR26 is not high end WR2 numbers.
If I was a Browns fan, I'd rather see Njoku getting involved in the passing game than see Landry getting 110+ targets.
I'm sure the Browns offense will be quite different in 2019, but last year they targeted the RB 111 times, WR 336 times, and TE 113 times. With Chubb, Njoku, Callaway, and Higgins all young and improving, I don't see room for Landry to get 130 targets if OBJ gets 140+. It would require an injury for that to happen.
ZWK
Footballguy
The two that I've traded for are Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber.Zyphros said:
Other cheap depth options: LeSean McCoy, Chris Thompson, Mike Davis, CJ Anderson.
Bumping up a price tier, there's Lamar Miller, Nyheim Hines, Latavius Murray, James White, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen.
Even higher prices: Chris Carson, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman.
Each of these lists is in order; McCoy, Miller, and Carson are the guys who I think I'd be most likely to pull off a trade that I liked for.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Here are trades I saw, not involved ("A" is same person different leagues)
* A gets: 2019 1st round pick 1.3 #3
* B gets: Jarvis Landry WR CLE, Jared Cook TE NO; 2019 1st round pick 1.10 #10, 2019 4th round pick 4.10 #46
* C gets: Jarvis Landry WR CLE; 2019 2nd round pick 2.5 #17
* A gets: 2020 1st round pick 1.12 #12, 2019 2nd round pick 2.12 #24, 2019 2nd round pick 2.1 #13
Amused to Death
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
What like he needs glasses??cloppbeast said:
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Carson is good value. His value was high at the end of last season because he ripped it up down the stretch. Now it's not as fresh in people's minds and the community is reverting to the assumption that Penny will usurp him. I've seen people trading 2nds for him. Legit top ten potential this year, only 24 years old, in a great situation with a great QB. He's not flashy and has low draft pedigree so you can get his production at a discount.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Kind of a back ended bench guy, but one I've seen some rave buy now articles about, but I've also seen some "meh" responses in many forums.
Albert Wilson
Where do people put his value? 2020 3rd rounder? more? less? let someone else try that experiment?
Albert Wilson
Where do people put his value? 2020 3rd rounder? more? less? let someone else try that experiment?
Last edited by a moderator:
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I'm very high on Wilson as I don't see anyone else on that team catching the ball. For some reason people keep talking up Parker when it's been obvious since his rookie year his heart just isn't in the game.
As for his value, I don't think he really has any. He's coming off an injury and only had a handful of good games before landing on ir, plus the aforementioned love of Parker. You could probably get him as an afterthought in any trade, or even a last round pick.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
fwiw I offered a 3rd for him (pick 38 in a 14 teamer), and it was rejected. I ended up with Riley Ridley at the pick so
I think he'll hit it this year.
Perhaps I misspoke earlier when I said he's seen #1 coverage, what I meant was that he's never benefited from another player drawing the defenses attention. I believe having a legit QB and an elite WR on the outside is going to result in Landry's per target numbers to spike. I don't think he'll see 155 targets, but I also don't think his yards will go down with fewer targets, because he'll catch a higher percentage of them, and have more space with them. I'd bet on Landry having a career high in YPC.
I'm taking Landry over all those other WR's you listed, the only one I really even debated was Robinson.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
traded him (and the 18 rookie pick) in a non ppr for Corey Davis (and the #14).
Zyphros
Footballguy
So Richard and Barber are probably worth 2nds to the right team, same with Shady, Thompson, Latavius, Ingram, Cohen, Carson I'd imagine. I'd have a hard time paying that for what could be a good waiver pickup away from getting the same production.
Then like you said you get to some of the more expensive ones like Lamar Miller, Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman. What are they worth? I see them all being replaced in a year, or at a minimum the team investing a 4th rounder or better in competition. I'd have a very hard time paying a 1st (which I imagine what their owners would want). I just wouldn't do it.
Are there people that would actually pay those prices? Cause I don't see it for myself but maybe I'm being too cautious. There's so many questions surrounding that entire group.
I'm surprised more people don't bring up Lindsay's size. The man is small. He could be an exception but being 190 and being productive would put him in a group that is historically quite small (pun intended)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He’s an outlier already. He’s 14th in career rushing attempts in PAC-12 history. He led the nation in carries in 2017. He’s the only UDFA to rush for 1,000 yards as a rookie. Guys his size don’t do the things he’s done.
His size has to be accounted for - it’s the only reason he’s not an RB1 and Royce Freeman has any hope in Denver - but Philip Lindsay is not your typical 190 pound football player.
His size is a legitimate concern, as it’s going to take the right coach to try their luck giving him 20 carries a game. But I’m not sure he’s any less likely to hold up than Chris Johnson was. I’m obviously very high on him, but give me the game changer with workload questions over bigger guys who have yet to flash game changing ability.
ZWK
Footballguy
I'd love to get Carson for a 2nd. I see him as being on the same tier as Guice/Sanders/Montgomery for dynasty, and more valuable than those guys for this season. He has been an above average starting RB in the NFL, and if he can hold Penny off then he could keep doing that for years.
With guys like Richard, Barber, Shady, and Thompson I wouldn't give more than a 3rd. Or I might try to get them as a throw-in in a bigger trade. The McCoy owner might see him as a RB on his last legs (and quite possibly 2 years past his last season as a viable starter) and be looking to get anything for him, especially if he is deep at RB or not a contender. And similarly with the others. If you shop around and you aren't too picky about which one you get, you have a decent shot at landing one of these guys for cheap.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think Carson is worth more like a pick in the 1.6 to 1.9 range. The risks on him are more than just Penny. Do the Seahawks view RB as plug and play? They keep drafting them, and he is only under contract 2 more years. I think the chance he gets a long term contract are not just dependent on holding off Penny. Are they married to RBBC now? Carson may be an "above average starting RB" but I think Penny and (no longer there) Davis could be evaluated about the same based on last year. I view him as very similar to Sanders (both on good offenses that probably go RBBC to their detriment), but Sanders has the benefit of just starting his rookie contract.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What are the chances that FA ends up being a boon for Carson, as it was for Lamar Miller a few years back? I’m not sure his contract expiring will be a bad thing. (Though it certainly could be.)
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Lamar Miller put up 2 RB1 years in Miami before hitting FA. Certainly it's possible Carson could do that. If Carson performs at the higher end of possible outcomes in the next two seasons, he will secure long term value regardless of Penny. If he doesn't, he's not guaranteed anything more than Thomas Rawls was at this point in his career.
This is key. In today's NFL, you are either special or you are replaced after your rookie contract, left to sign in a RBBC. People were at one point pretty excited about owning guys like Hyde, Gio, Doug Martin, Latavius Murray, Alfred Morris, etc. in their first 2-3 years in the league. But it seems like 9 out of 10 marginal talents just get left for dead in free agency. I mean CJA was coming off a 1000 yard season and had to settle for a back-up job last year, showed he could still play on the Rams, and then still could only get a backup job the next cycle. Tevin Coleman owners all thought he was going to get a starting job in free agency, then RBBC. Some guys don't even make it to free agency. Jeremy Hill, Jordan Howard, and Eddie Lacy were fantasy scrubs after just 3 years.
But when I say 9 out of 10, that means there are exceptions. Very few non-owners ever thought Lamar Miller was special, but he landed a starting job. I'm struggling to think of another middling talent that was signed to be a starter. McKinnon almost was if not for injury, but he isn't a great example since he didn't start much during his rookie contract.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think it was FA that hurt these guys. Doug Martin didn't do anything after his extension and I don't think Hyde or Morris would have either. As you point out, a lot of them were done contributing before their rookie contracts were up - Hill, Lacy, Gio, Morris, etc. I think RBs still have some value on the market, if they appear to have juice left. Murray, Martin, McKinnon, and Miller were all signed to be the guy for their new teams. I don't think they were viewed as special, although Murray was coming off of a special season.
But it is shocking how quickly the average NFL RB is past his prime - and the talented are not immune - MJD, Rice, Foster, CJ2k, and Charles were all but done at or before 28.
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't think many teams are willing to pay a lot for a starting RB. So if a guy is a non-special talent, they are likely to find themselves in a cheap contract that doesn't protect them from being replaced. Latavius might have been signed to be Minnesota's starter, but it was cheap enough that they didn't mind drafting Cook when he fell to them. Crowell was a pretty young FA and showed he had some juice, but I think he only got three or four million per year in free agency last year and even less this year.
RB prime is a tricky subject. It's hard to tell if Rice was really done or if it was just a down year for him. For example, if the same thing had happened to McGahee after his age 29 season, we'd have said he was done and that's why he didn't get signed. But McGahee had an excellent age 30 season. Tomlinson looked washed up at 29 and 30, but playing behind a good line at age 31 made him look better. I think Foster would've still been good if not for the achilles tear. That's a career ender for most RBs. Then we've got Gore rushing for 4.6 ypa at age 35...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree that RBs have little value on the market, that teams would rather go cheap. But that drives the price down, so teams can sign veteran starting RBs for cheap. TJ Yeldon and CJ Anderson and Carlos Hyde and Latavius Murray (etc.) aren't stuck in committees because they cost too much. They're stuck in committees because teams don't think they're starting caliber backs anymore (if ever).
You can't honestly tell me that GMs all decided that CJA at 27 had lost a step from 26. Same for Latavius (although it is debatable if he should've been starting in Oakland). These guys were starting at age 26 and backups at 27. I think CJA was PFF's RB5 in 2017. Sure, PFF can be a little wacky, but he had a nice season considering the offense he was stuck in. And I think he proved he still had some juice when he averaged 5.2 ypc over 113 carries in 2018 including the playoffs (sure, some was the offense, but Gurley never cracked 5 ypc and Goff's production was slipping in the second half of the season). I don't fully comprehend why these guys strike out in free agency. I'm guessing that most GMs see guys like CJA as barely above average starters and think they can catch lightning in a bottle with a rookie which would be much cheaper. I'm just using CJA as an example since he had nice 2018 performance whereas the other examples were less impressive (Hyde 3.3 ypc, Murray 4.1 ypc, Yeldon 4.0 ypc).Concept Coop said:
I've been attempting to buy Carson in several leagues, so I like him, but I don't feel confident that he won't fall into the same category as those other guys. I think if we're being realistic, he would be doing well to end up in a RBBC like (2019) Dion Lewis or Mark Ingram (although obviously in more of an Ingram type role than Lewis type role). The odds of guys like him pulling a Lamar Miller are just pretty low.
Hell, I'll be interested to see what kind of interest Melvin Gordon generates next year. I'm not convinced he's any better than Ingram.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’m not sure I’m following your argument.
Are the CJ Andersons of the world in committees because they are too cheap or too expensive?
You do realize that Denver extended Anderson - matching another offer - before cutting him and eating dead cap space to get out of his contract?
He then signed for 1.75M. Both Denver and Miami were willing to pay him 4M in 2016 and his best offer was 1.75M in 2018. So yeah, GMs either decided that he lost a step, or saw that he didn’t have the potential that they thought he might, once he got a full workload.
If teams wanted a cheap option at RB, Anderson was that. That’s how markets work, right? If the league is passing on vets for cheaper alternatives, vets then become cheap options themselves.
Edit: @FF Ninja
Are the CJ Andersons of the world in committees because they are too cheap or too expensive?
You do realize that Denver extended Anderson - matching another offer - before cutting him and eating dead cap space to get out of his contract?
He then signed for 1.75M. Both Denver and Miami were willing to pay him 4M in 2016 and his best offer was 1.75M in 2018. So yeah, GMs either decided that he lost a step, or saw that he didn’t have the potential that they thought he might, once he got a full workload.
If teams wanted a cheap option at RB, Anderson was that. That’s how markets work, right? If the league is passing on vets for cheaper alternatives, vets then become cheap options themselves.
Edit: @FF Ninja
Last edited by a moderator:
