I thought I agreed at first, but Julio is a year younger and has had five seasons over 1400 yards and three with over 100 rec. AJG has one and zero respectively. Julio has also only missed 2 games in the past 3 years, whereas AJG has missed 13.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Six months, and my point is not that one has had better production recently. It's that they are both at the precipice of falling off the value cliff entirely.
People are (rightfully) discounting AJG going forward, but they should also have Julio in the same basket.
Good catch on the six months. I don't have either one and didn't mean to mislead. But if I was buying, I'd much rather have Julio than AJG. I'm more wary of injuries and QB play for AJG going forward.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I agree.
After this season, where does Julio rank?
AB as well?
Who are some younger WR targets? Cooks, Kupp, Golladay, Ridley?
Got a team in one league of mine that had AB and Julio, wanted to rebuild and hard shopped both since off-season. This person also hates the 2019 draft but found takers for both finally.
I believe for AB he got back James Washington and 2020#1 pick that is bordeline playoff at best. For Julio he got back a better return which was Ridley and 2020#1 from similar playoff situated team. I personally thought it was really bad trades for both teams that got the older WR's because neither team is good enough to compete but I was also happy to see the trades go down because I've got a lot of youth and 2020 picks and I feel like a few weeks into the season when those teams realize they are not contenders I can try and buy one of those older WR's for less then they paid.
Until a few weeks ago I had two Julio/AB teams of my own. FWIW despite being one year older and switching teams I prefer AB over Julio. Health, stye of play is not as physical, just have this feeling that I obviously I can't prove but just feel like AB needs football more then Julio and will bust his butt to play as long as he can. I predict from his age 31 on season that AB will be the most prolific WR in the history of the NFL other then Jerry Rice was from his age 31 season on.
kutta
Footballguy
That's possible, but he's going to have to pass Fitz first. His age 32, 33, 34 seasons were pretty amazing. And this one could be pretty good too.
Age 32: 109 Rec, 1215 yds, 9 TD's
Age 33: 107 Rec, 1023 yds, 6 TD's
Age 34: 109 Rec, 1156 yds., 6 TD's
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is discounting Julio less than AJG because of age. It's just that Julio's discount comes from a higher starting point because he's been a much better fantasy player lately.
Julio Jones would be the #1 WR and probably #2 overall dynasty asset if he were 25. AJG would not.
Zyphros
Footballguy
The Julio Jones, Antonio Browns, Adam Thielen's, T.Y. Hilton's of the fantasy world. I think they retain their value as WR15 at best. There are very few young WR's that I believe will elevate themselves into a dynasty WR1. But WR15 or later is also a steal for those types of players. They should be sitting near there for the next 2 years, then start falling off even more than they have already. AB might fall off sooner than Julio since Julio has this continuity, AB is in a new scheme with new everything. Maybe a down year then back to normalcy for him?
Part of their fall off in value will be the 2020 class along with the 2019 class and what they do this year. I only see Harry, Deebo, Metcalf, and Campbell as possibly pushing past them this year because of their immediate impact. I would say AJ Brown as well but his situation says it'll be basically impossible for him to get there. But as for the 4 I mentioned it seems very unlikely they produce that highly to be considered that high.
Golladay, and Godwin might be the only 2 young WR's (other than rookies) that COULD vault past them, personally I don't see it though. I think they'll be great players but they won't elevate to WR1 fantasy status. If you're wondering about DJ Moore, I put him ahead of those guys already. But feel free to include him.
Let's say that 3 of those names do extremely well this year and vault past. Considering all of that, the highest I could imagine the aging elite vets is probably WR18.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
It's possible to group him in there as well. I just believe his entire rookie season will be hit/miss with some big hits and big misses. His 2020 outlook will depend on what Kyler looks like, and what he looks like, and then I would imagine the majority of dynasty players will say he needs to be bigger to be considered that high.
I mean look at Brandin Cooks, he's the exact example that Isabella could turn into if things break right. And he isn't viewed as a consensus top15 dynasty WR most of the time. So it's hard to see him break into that category and be viewed as a better dynasty asset than any of the aging vets.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
If I needed WR help, I guess I'd pay a late 1st. But in reality, I'd much rather turn that late 1st into a random 2020 1st than Sammy.
There are just so many guys I'd rather have than Sammy. In a vacuum (ignoring trade value), I'd rather have guys like Allen Robinson and Lockett (two guys around Sammy's age). I want to say I saw Sammy go for 1.02 in one of my leagues (right after the Tyreek news) but I'm not sure if there was anything extra on either side. Not that the 1.02 is particularly valuable in this class, but people in the trade thread were saying they'd take 1.07 over Allen Robinson.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Cool. I like high upside swings like Watkins, but only at the right prices. And I agree if it takes a late 1st to get him, if I'd rather invest elsewhere. I'd take Fant as a late 1st candidate over 2020 1st but other than him or someone unexpected slipping I think I'd also just rather roll the dice on 2020.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I paid picks 5 and 15 earlier this month. It was his counter to pick 5 and Anthony Miller. After completion, another owner indicated he would have paid more.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Decent haul I think. Miller would have been better.
Ages 30 and 31 is a good time to sell a wr, if you're going to. Value will fall off quickly even if they produce but especially if they have a down year or get injured. It's either sell now or ride it out.
I think Julio is the type to produce into his mid 30s, even late 30s, but I guess that's a big chance too. I reluctantly sold him today for moving back in the 1st this year but got two 2020 1sts, three 2nds, and david njoku. Couldnt say no.
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kutta
Footballguy
I’d take 1.07 over both Robinson and Watkins. In fact, I had 1.07 and drafted Fant and I probably would not give him up if someone offered me both of those guys.
Before the NFL draft, I'd have been 50/50 on it, but to me the NFL draft tanked the value of every draft pick, making it the weakest class I can remember. No way I'm getting excited about a rookie TE drafted by Elway. I get that the combine and pre-draft hype for Fant was solid, but TEs are the slowest to produce and Elway has not earned my confidence.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Josh Jacobs is the only rookie I'd take over Allen Robinson.
Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders, and Harry, are the only rookies I'd take over Sammy Watkins.
I'm really not seeing Fant at all. Run heavy team with a good to great defense, and a questionable QB. I've got Fant as a mid-2nd round rookie pick, around guys like Diontae Johnson and Justice Hill.
Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders, and Harry, are the only rookies I'd take over Sammy Watkins.
I'm really not seeing Fant at all. Run heavy team with a good to great defense, and a questionable QB. I've got Fant as a mid-2nd round rookie pick, around guys like Diontae Johnson and Justice Hill.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
doesn't that sound a lot like Baltimore?? Flacco had some success with his TE's there. I think you are undervaluing Fant myself
Flacco really didn't have much success with his TE's though. Dennis Pitta had 1 year with 669-7 and no other season had a TE1. Pitta also had 729-2 in 2016, but that was pretty fluky, as the Ravens lead the NFL in pass attempts for some reason, if the Broncos lead the NFL in attempts, its because their defense fell apart, in which case they've likely already turned to Lock.
I'm admittedly not a Fant fan, I question his hands, and his run after catch ability. In addition, I don't think Denver is a good landing spot at all.
I'd say Michel, but its really close. I think the quality of the Patriots team, and the TD upside put him higher. That said, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lindsay have more yards all 3 years. Its very 55-45 for me, but I'm pretty certain I'm a bigger Lindsay fan than most.
Zyphros
Footballguy
How comfortable are people feeling about Njoku? I've been trying to sell him all offseason (just did in 1 league, still trying in another). His range of outcomes seems to be all over the board. This is probably a make or break year for his dynasty value, and it's hard to see him make it with the plethora of weapons Cleveland has. Anyone super high on him still?
I moved him for Devonta Freeman straight-up about two months ago in a non-TE premium dynasty. I already had Kittle and Herndon, so when I saw that proposal sitting in my inbox I pretty much instantly accepted.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I just made a move for him. Actually it was for a 2020 1st and we ended up including him on that side. I wasn't targeting him and I'm not super high on him. But I do like him and am somewhat high on him. I love where I think the Cleveland offense is headed and I don't see why he can't be 2nd or roughly tied for 2nd in targets on the team. After OBJ it is something like Landry / Njoku / RBs & Callaway. I'm not willing to bet a lot on it but I do see him as going up in value. Not sure Landry eats as much anymore. That is probably the biggest question mark.
Oh I moved Woods and McDonald to get the 2020 1st and Njoku.
I still like him. Hard to see him getting >110 targets this season, but I like the talent and he's still only going to be turning 23 in July. As I don't need immediate production at TE in any of my leagues, I'll gladly acquire him if the opportunity presents itself before or during the season. I'm not sure this will truly be a "make or break" year for his dynasty value. He did finish TE9 on 89 targets last year (although he was only TE17 on a ppg basis, but that counts Walker with one game and Eifert with four and, of course, Gronk). If he gets a similar workload and has a similar finish, people will be disappointed, but I doubt it tanks his value.Zyphros said:
What was his rookie ADP? I want to say it was back end of the 1st round, so I'm not sure anybody was ever super high on him, but more likely everyone knew he'd take a little time to get going. I don't even remember who the week 1 starter (QB) was in Cleveland his rookie year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
110 targets would be outstanding. Definitely would be a bump to his value. Week 1 starter his rookie year was DeShone Kizer, who took 7 sacks that day (not relevant just thought it was funny).
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Sony Michel? Buying/Sell/Hold?
Worried with Pats spending a 3rd on Bellichecks minor league club Alabama?
What backs in the top 10-15 would you rather have?
Worried with Pats spending a 3rd on Bellichecks minor league club Alabama?
What backs in the top 10-15 would you rather have?
Yeah, it would be. I'm just saying that's the ceiling. Pretty easily could be in the 80-90 range again with OBJ in town and the run game looking solid.
Pwingles
Footballguy
For me he is sorta the type of guy that I would look to acquire if the price was right only. Not looking to overpay for a player that is used in the way he is used. He is an absolutely great RB2 target, so if the price is similar Id be fine paying it, but to me his usage is too dependent on what the patriots feel like doing that week to be paying RB1 prices. Selling would totally depend on my roster. If I am deep and the price is good, sure. If im rebuilding and cannot compete, he is someone i would look to move to try and get a 1st next year if anyone is selling.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If you put together a starting lineup of guys you like most, relative to ADP, what would it look like?
Mine:
Q - Kyler Murray (ADP: 8, Me: 6) (Rookie ADP: 16, Me: 4)
R - Philip Lindsay (25, 18)
R - Jordan Scarlett ( 95+, ~60)
W - Mike Williams (28, 19)
W - Tyler Boyd (26, 17)
W - Calvin Ridley (25, 18)
T - Josh Oliver (35, ~20)
Mine:
Q - Kyler Murray (ADP: 8, Me: 6) (Rookie ADP: 16, Me: 4)
R - Philip Lindsay (25, 18)
R - Jordan Scarlett ( 95+, ~60)
W - Mike Williams (28, 19)
W - Tyler Boyd (26, 17)
W - Calvin Ridley (25, 18)
T - Josh Oliver (35, ~20)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm selling. He never really flashed last season, his knee gave him trouble, and his already questionable situation got worse, with the addition of Harris. I'd be looking to add to him for backs like Kerryon or Jacobs.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I sold for Godwin on a team with nobody at rb or wr (no I don't buy into the hype, just think he gets ten or so more receptions than last year). Don't think the Harris pick hurts him, turns burkhead into a weekly inactive though.
My big problem is no ne back has week to week consistency. Add a bum leg to that and he's too much of a risk. Sure there will be a week where he grabs three tds, but there's gonna be another where he touches the ball three times. Also he doesn't catch the ball.
joey
Footballguy
White seems like the "safest" floor in the NE backfield in PPR leagues, though even he slowed down quite a bit when Michel starting getting into the mix more in the 2nd half of the season. White is a HOLD and the rest are generally an AVOID since I don't own any of them in any of my 3 dynasty leagues,
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How would you rank these players in PPR formats?
Gurley, Bell, DJ, Chubb, Mixon
Gurley, Bell, DJ, Chubb, Mixon
kutta
Footballguy
Mixon
Chubb
DJ
Bell
Gurley
Mixon and Chubb are up top because they have less questions and are younger. The other three are a toss up really until we see how their situations play out.
I'll play, but I'm too lazy to do my own rankings so I'll just list age - I picked all guys with at least 5 years of prime utility remaining.
I know you like Murray, but I can't imagine drafting Murray ahead of Goff in a startup. Age difference is only 3 years and one is proven. IMO, Murray's ranking is way too high for an unknown.
My all value team:
QB - Stafford (QB22, age 31) - down year discount
RB - Carson (RB29, age 24) - almost 300 NFL carries @ 4.6 ypc
RB - R Freeman (RB34, age 23) - new system favors him
WR - Robinson (WR24, age 25) - just seems cheap to me for a young, proven talent
WR - Pettis (WR34, age 23) - same as above, I like Deebo but he's unproven and may not be a WR1
WR - Moncrief (WR72, age 25) - perfect opportunity, upside too high to pass on at this price
TE - Ian Thomas (TE21, age 22) - looked great for a rookie last year
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Mixon, dj, bell, cubb, Gurley
Since I appear to be in the minority I'll explain - Mixon might be in the conversation for no 1 overall next year. Bell is going to feast and can end up topping 400 touches. I love the air raid and think after last year (where dj still managed rb1 numbers despite everything) he's got sneaky upside. Cubb will be great for the first eight games, but he doesn't catch passes and hunt isn't there to hold his water. Come fantasy playoffs he'll hurt you. Gurley I don't trust at all and won't have him in any of my teams.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I said it once ill say it again....you back some dogs my friend....only pettis and carson may find themselves on my teams.....and i like penny alot better...but for the seattle rbs i think you can draft both rather easily
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’m a buyer on Chubb, but can’t deny your logic. His upside is capped in PPR formats - I have him down for ~30 receptions - and Hunt is brutal competition. They’re different players, but Chubb reminded me of rookie year (best version of) Zeke, last season. He’s special, and he’s the cheapest young guy I can say that about. I typically try to acquire talent and let the chips fall where they may.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Have an offer for Mike Evans in my inbox. Don't care for it, but havent countered yet.
Current offer is 1.02, D Hamilton, A miller for Evans
Not interested in that at all, however the rotoworld dominator app loves it for me if I were to take it.
The owner does have the 7, 10, and 12 pick as well. Also has Sammy. Any of the other pieces are either too valuable to add or of no interest.
So what combination of these pieces would you want for Evans?
Current offer is 1.02, D Hamilton, A miller for Evans
Not interested in that at all, however the rotoworld dominator app loves it for me if I were to take it.
The owner does have the 7, 10, and 12 pick as well. Also has Sammy. Any of the other pieces are either too valuable to add or of no interest.
So what combination of these pieces would you want for Evans?
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These guys are a value because suckers think they are dogsbicycle_seat_sniffer said:
FWIW, I don't even have half of these guys. They are just guys that stuck out to me as values when looking at ADP by position.
ETA: Penny costs about the same as Carson, is only a year younger, and lacks the NFL success of Carson. I don't own either player.
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kutta
Footballguy
I think I’d take the trade as offered and not mess around with him changing his mind.
Edit: wait - if you’re giving up Evans then forget it. If you’re getting Evans I like it for you.
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Boone22
Footballguy
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It must use the same values for picks regardless of year. The 1.02 has much less value to me this year than in years past. I also don't like that trade for Evans. I'd want a lot more. 1.02 is a maybe while Hamilton and Miller are role players at best. Evans is 25.8 years old with 395 rec, 6105 yards, and 40 TDs to his name... a 16 game average of 82/1269/8.
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