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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)

Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?
Looking at dynasty ADP gives me a feel for who is cheap, but as always league setup and owner values differ. Looking outside the top 20 for QB, top 35 for RB, top 40 for WR, and top 12 for TE:

QB21 - Stafford: after several nice seasons he had a down year. He'll have a healthy set of WRs in Marvin, Golladay, Amendola, and Hock to go along with KJ and Riddick. I think he bounces back.
QB23 - Rivers: he's getting old but should still have a few good years left. His weapons remain the same.
RB39 - Lamar Miller: I don't really like him but I like Foreman less. Solid opportunity for another year.
RB60 - Dion Lewis: should still figure into the game plan and catch some passes.
WR43 - Shepard: too cheap for his age and opportunity.
WR45 - Marvin: still in his prime and dirt cheap considering his opportunity and past production.
WR63 - Albert Wilson: fairly young and wildy productive with bad QB play last year; worth a shot.
WR70 - John Brown: Allen probably sucks, but Brown fits his skill set.
WR72 - Moncrief: already mentioned but I love this one. So cheap, relatively young, and in a prime spot.
WR98 - Keelan Cole: really cheap and JAX WR competition seems wide open.
TE15 - Jared Cook: prime spot.
TE18 - Rudolph: always fade the rookie TE; bonus 2020 free agency.
TE22 - Doyle: snap count leader and Luck's safety blanket.
TE31 - Eifert: such a cheap flyer, probably top 5 when healthy, so why not?
 

 
Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?
RB: Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber are the two that I've been able to trade for. I've also made offers for guys like Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, and LeSean McCoy.

TE: Delanie Walker. In TE premium leagues I've also been trying to collect cheap young upside like Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, and Will Dissly.

 
in existing leagues, i define cheap as 3rd round rookie or worse

RB: Murray, in PPR Lewis, Gio and Duke

WR: Moncrief (#2 in Pit is wide open), Lee (never know which WR a new QB will click with), Snead

TE: Walker, Olsen, Eifert...  not sure you can get Rudolph that cheaply

 
RB: Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber are the two that I've been able to trade for. I've also made offers for guys like Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, and LeSean McCoy.

TE: Delanie Walker. In TE premium leagues I've also been trying to collect cheap young upside like Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, and Will Dissly.
Do you still think Richard has value after them drafting Josh Jacobs and signing Crowell?  I would imagine that backfield is Jacobs, Crowell, Warren, Richard in that order.  Before the draft he was a good flier but now?  I'm not so sure.  

I said this in the trades thread too about Peyton Barber, fool me once.... Lots of people had him as the buy last year, I'm not falling for that trap again.  

 
Do you still think Richard has value after them drafting Josh Jacobs and signing Crowell?  I would imagine that backfield is Jacobs, Crowell, Warren, Richard in that order.  Before the draft he was a good flier but now?  I'm not so sure.  

I said this in the trades thread too about Peyton Barber, fool me once.... Lots of people had him as the buy last year, I'm not falling for that trap again.  
Crowell blew out his Achilles.

 
Do you still think Richard has value after them drafting Josh Jacobs and signing Crowell?  I would imagine that backfield is Jacobs, Crowell, Warren, Richard in that order.  Before the draft he was a good flier but now?  I'm not so sure.  

I said this in the trades thread too about Peyton Barber, fool me once.... Lots of people had him as the buy last year, I'm not falling for that trap again.  
Crow is on IR

 
Looking at dynasty ADP gives me a feel for who is cheap, but as always league setup and owner values differ. Looking outside the top 20 for QB, top 35 for RB, top 40 for WR, and top 12 for TE:

TE31 - Eifert: such a cheap flyer, probably top 5 when healthy, so why not?
 
Reed for Washington should be on this list too. Yeah he's banged up a lot (like Eifert) but when he's healthy he's top 5 potential and he can be had dirt cheap. And early reports are very good on Haskins. 

 
Reed for Washington should be on this list too. Yeah he's banged up a lot (like Eifert) but when he's healthy he's top 5 potential and he can be had dirt cheap. And early reports are very good on Haskins. 
Excellent point. Not sure how I glossed over him at TE27. With their lack of proven WR targets, Reed should be in for a nice workload if he can stay healthy.

 
This is why I love this game, because it can be so dynamic.  For me, it depends on who is on the board.  I was not going to trade my 1.14 while Fant was there, once he went I moved it for a 2020.  But if a wildcard team gets a contributor at that pick, that 2020 might be an even later one. 

It's way, way too early to call 2020 a deeper or better draft after the top 5.  Yes, it's LOADED at the top.  But after the obvious Swift/Ettiene/Akers/Jeudy/Lamb/maybe Taylor tier what next?  Dobbins looked the part as a freshman but didn't look nearly as dynamic last year - this coming from a raging OSU homer.  12 months ago people were raging about Harmon and Bryan Edwards and look at them now.  Is Taylor legit or is there any part of a dominating system propping him up?   Everyone else looks like guys we're trying to fill a top 10 list rather than guys that are putting themselves on it.  I haven't seen Shenault live so maybe I am missing that but if you're offering me a guy that I know I like today vs. a guy I might not have any control over I am fine keeping/trading for that.

That being said I have 12 2020 1sts in 4 leagues and I do love them.  I just think people are overdoing it at times.
Yes things change. But paying 1.11 for a 2020 1/3 is a good move regardless of the draft class most years imo. It’s not like he has to take a guy now- ie harris/love last year to this year value.  There’s a good chance the pick is earlier (unless it’s a 16 team league maybe) and even if not it’s not like you’re forced to pick there. You can trade it or whatever. The depth of the draft won’t be known until February really. 

I think your league mates are dumb for crowing about it. It’s a pretty standard deal- late 1st for a future 1st with some sweetener. There isn’t some flawless prospect at 11 this year. 

That said, yes, if there is someone there that you like, absolutely I’d pay a future 1/3 to get the guy I covet. I wouldn’t feel like I got some ridiculous value though. 

 
Yes things change. But paying 1.11 for a 2020 1/3 is a good move regardless of the draft class most years imo. It’s not like he has to take a guy now- ie harris/love last year to this year value.  There’s a good chance the pick is earlier (unless it’s a 16 team league maybe) and even if not it’s not like you’re forced to pick there. You can trade it or whatever. The depth of the draft won’t be known until February really. 

I think your league mates are dumb for crowing about it. It’s a pretty standard deal- late 1st for a future 1st with some sweetener. There isn’t some flawless prospect at 11 this year. 

That said, yes, if there is someone there that you like, absolutely I’d pay a future 1/3 to get the guy I covet. I wouldn’t feel like I got some ridiculous value though. 
It wasn't my leaguemates or my trade FYI, I just jumped in with my thoughts.  I also wouldn't/didn't say ridiculous value either, just that it's worth considering in the moment.  I've seen so many "there's no reason not to trade any first rounder for 2020's" type posts that I am putting an opposing view out there.

 
It wasn't my leaguemates or my trade FYI, I just jumped in with my thoughts.  I also wouldn't/didn't say ridiculous value either, just that it's worth considering in the moment.  I've seen so many "there's no reason not to trade any first rounder for 2020's" type posts that I am putting an opposing view out there.
Those people are ridiculous.  It’s almost always a good move to trade a late 1st for a future undecided 1st.  What’s worst that can happen?  You get similar pick in following draft.  Best case you get a top 5 pick.

easily worth the risk since there isn’t really any risk of getting screwed.

 
It wasn't my leaguemates or my trade FYI, I just jumped in with my thoughts.  I also wouldn't/didn't say ridiculous value either, just that it's worth considering in the moment.  I've seen so many "there's no reason not to trade any first rounder for 2020's" type posts that I am putting an opposing view out there.
Oops my bad:) I traded a future 1st in one of my leagues, so I’m on board. The fact that his league said he got robbed is kind of ridiculois imo is all. 

 
What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)
They both have top 5 QB potential.  I think QB is the hardest position to value correctly as everyone is closer to their QB than the rest of their roster.

 
What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)
I think both are worth more than a late 1st.  Especially Watson who is considered a top 3 dynasty QB and is only 23 years old. 

And just because he has a lot of QB depth doesn’t mean he should trade one for less than their value.  Not sure if you feel this way, but a lot of owners out there do. 

 
What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)
Honestly, probably the 1.2. Jacobs is really the only guy I'd take over either of them. I like Luck slightly more, as I think he's a better passer, and has a better coaching staff around him. Also, while i realize Luck hasn't been the healthiest guy by any means, I trust him to stay healthy more than Watson, simply based on the hits Watson takes.

 
Trying to get a read on Chris Godwin's value in terms of a 2020 pick. Trade calculators seem to have his value at more than a mid 2020 1st round pick but discussions I've seen about him in this thread and the completed trades thread seem to value him at less. I think he will improve on last year's numbers but maybe not by much. Thoughts?

 
Price check on Phillip Lindsey, what's his value in rookie picks? 
Probably right around Miles Sanders, honestly.  Each has a good shot at a sizeable workload, each has the threat of rbbc.  I expect you will find some owners who strongly prefer Lindsay, but others will strongly prefer Sanders.  

I guess that puts him in the mid-first.

 
This offseason I’ve traded for Lindsay twice:

1.07/Gallup for Lindsay

and 

Late 2020 1st/Late 2020 2nd for Lindsay

I paid what I had to pay, but I’ve seen him go for less, too.

I also traded him away, as he was my RB4 in one league, and I needed a WR:

Lindsay/40% BB$ for Robert Woods

 
Price check on Phillip Lindsey, what's his value in rookie picks? 
I always answer these questions by ranking them against rookies at his position. In his case he'd be RB5 and that puts him at back end of round one at best.

I really liked him a lot earlier this off-season, even acquired him,  but does no one any good to ignore the  negative noise for his value that has cropped up in last few weeks.

When I acquired him earlier this off-season he was part of package I got for Gurley. Dealt him away later for Kareem Hunt. Before I dealt him for Hunt I made someone a trade offer of Julio and Lindsay for Bell, 1.10 and 2.7. My thinking was Bell=Julio but I was thinning his RB's out so would give him Lindsay for the picks. I put a note in the trade that if he preferred I'd do Bell for Julio straight up and that is in fact what he preferred. That was a few weeks ago and it was fairly recently, I think last week that I dealt him for Hunt.

 
Price check on Phillip Lindsey, what's his value in rookie picks? 
I like just about everyone in the first 10-12 picks more than I like Lindsay's prospects.

He's going to lose his job over the summer (at least temporarily) because he won't be able to play until roughly midway through training camp.  He's proven that he's capable of being the lead back, but I'm not sure how quickly he will be able to get up to speed with the new regime's offense.  I am not betting on him ever seeing production like he had in 2018 again.

 
I always answer these questions by ranking them against rookies at his position. In his case he'd be RB5 and that puts him at back end of round one at best.

I really liked him a lot earlier this off-season, even acquired him,  but does no one any good to ignore the  negative noise for his value that has cropped up in last few weeks.

When I acquired him earlier this off-season he was part of package I got for Gurley. Dealt him away later for Kareem Hunt. Before I dealt him for Hunt I made someone a trade offer of Julio and Lindsay for Bell, 1.10 and 2.7. My thinking was Bell=Julio but I was thinning his RB's out so would give him Lindsay for the picks. I put a note in the trade that if he preferred I'd do Bell for Julio straight up and that is in fact what he preferred. That was a few weeks ago and it was fairly recently, I think last week that I dealt him for Hunt.
Is the negative the noise the beat reporter suggesting Freeman will get more touches this season? I’m not sure that’s worth our attention, honestly. Coaching changes certainly come with concern, Freeman is solid competition, and Lindsay’s upside is likely capped by his frame. But this noise came before camp even started. How does it make sense that the coaching staff made the call already, before working with either guy, and after seeing how much more productive Lindsay was last season?

 
Is the negative the noise the beat reporter suggesting Freeman will get more touches this season? I’m not sure that’s worth our attention, honestly.
Yes.

Without looking for the information, just casual reading and listening  to people I follow it's not just a single beat reporter but it's been James Palmer, Ryan O'Halloran and Bucky Brooks who all have said the coaching staff is determined to make Royce Freeman the primary ball carrier. Again that's just people I follow, I'm sure they are not alone putting this information out.

You can say that  makes no sense and I'd agree but to ignore it and say it's not worth your attention is just akin to putting your head in the sand and frankly that this came before camp started is even worse for Lindsay IMO.

 
I saw Palmer’s report, but not the other two. My Google searches are failing me - do you have those?

These blurbs rarely end up meaning anything. Tavon Austin was supposed to get 10-20 touches a game, Kareem Hunt was supposed to be a lot more involved in the passing game, Andrew Luck was going to be ready a year before he actually was, Justin Hunter was going to be a major redzone threat, Allen Hurns was going to be the man in Dallas, etc, etc.

I'm not putting my head in the sand, I’ve just noticed that these pre-camp blurbs are worthless, more often than not. It’s hard to put much stock in them.

And even if Palmer is right, the 40 carry dip he projects could easily be offset by additional passing down work. Hopefully this staff puts Booker on the bench, where he belongs.

 
In case anyone is wondering what Mike Evans might be valued at in PPR...I was just offered Sutton & Ertz for him. Turned it down b/c, while I want Ertz to replace Herndon as my TE1, I am not high on Sutton.
I'm not super high on Sutton but I do like him a lot. And Ertz is Ertz. But I probably still hold Evans. I don't think we've seen his best season yet and I'd have to have my socks knocked off to do it. Ertz plus Sutton isn't terrible but not near good enough for me.

 
If you were to trade Lindsey for a WR, who would you want in return?  I've tried for a number of different WRs with no luck.

 
If you were to trade Lindsey for a WR, who would you want in return?  I've tried for a number of different WRs with no luck.
Look at the rosters in your league and find the ones that are strong at WR and weak at RB. Then start a conversation and see which WRs they think are worth Lindsay.

 
Feels like a trick question because there aren't any.

WR is real tough. I like Albert Wilson in Miami. I think Golden Tate is undervalued based on his struggles fitting in with Philly and will do better with a full offseason in NY, but still wouldn't go for him. I would rather pay a 4th for Cobb than a 2nd for Tate, but if you really need the starter Tate is a much better bet.
I like Wilson a lot. The Chiefs are probably kicking themselves for letting him go as he seems like he would be a great fit with Mahomes (and Hill being Hill). Nonetheless he is an explosive football player and if he can fully recover I expect him to be a nice value at the position.

 
In case anyone is wondering what Mike Evans might be valued at in PPR...I was just offered Sutton & Ertz for him. Turned it down b/c, while I want Ertz to replace Herndon as my TE1, I am not high on Sutton.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not willing to take on Ertz as a premium piece. I don’t think this is particularly close and think it’s off by at least a 2020 1st. 

How well has Ertz scored with Wentz vs with Foles?

 
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not willing to take on Ertz as a premium piece. I don’t think this is particularly close and think it’s off by at least a 2020 1st. 

How well has Ertz scored with Wentz vs with Foles?
I agree about valuing him as an elite asset. Ertz averages ~2.5 more FPPG with Wentz over the past two years, though he actually averages fewer targets and catches with Wentz. 

 
Was offered Guice + 2019 1.09 for Joe Mixon.  Thoughts?

ppr superflex league: qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, te, flex, superflex

ETA: 12 teams

 
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Was offered Guice + 2019 1.09 for Joe Mixon.  Thoughts?

ppr superflex league: qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, te, flex, superflex

ETA: 12 teams
I would much rather have Mixon. He is a young RB who already has a 1000 yards season. Guice has potential but hasn't done anything in the NFL yet and adding a late round 1 pick isn't enough for me. THe old saying a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush sure fits here for me.

 
Was offered Guice + 2019 1.09 for Joe Mixon.  Thoughts?

ppr superflex league: qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, te, flex, superflex

ETA: 12 teams
While that is a fair offer, I also would rather hold Mixon.  No telling how Wash Offense will evolve and will Haskins start part of the year creating more crowded box? 

While, IMO, Guice might have a higher ceiling, Mixon certainly has a higher floor.  Am I building or a contender?  Contender = Mixon. 

 
If you were to trade Lindsey for a WR, who would you want in return?  I've tried for a number of different WRs with no luck.
The problem is Lindsey's value is all over the place!  Some value him as a RB1 (top 12) but most have him border RB2-3 and will not pay premium for him. 

Flacco might help short term in his game management, but he won't be there long.  Drew Lock will be under center when Flacco gets a hangnail. 

I would look for DJ Moore CAR or Tyler Lockett SEA as reasonable targets, but depending on RB needy team, maybe Galloday or AJ Green are not out of the question.  

Personally, I am big on DJ Moore but I don't know if Cam will be the QB he needs to develop this year.  Galloday would be my target.  

 
The problem is Lindsey's value is all over the place!  Some value him as a RB1 (top 12) but most have him border RB2-3 and will not pay premium for him. 

Flacco might help short term in his game management, but he won't be there long.  Drew Lock will be under center when Flacco gets a hangnail. 

I would look for DJ Moore CAR or Tyler Lockett SEA as reasonable targets, but depending on RB needy team, maybe Galloday or AJ Green are not out of the question.  

Personally, I am big on DJ Moore but I don't know if Cam will be the QB he needs to develop this year.  Galloday would be my target.  
I agree with this entire post.  

Also, for context as you mentioned them both, I just traded Golladay for DJ Moore and Keke Coutee, so I’d say we value the receivers in that tier about the same.

Love Lockett too.  Am actually considering offering Green for Moore but think something should be com8ng back with Moore...or am I over-valuing Green?

 
Am actually considering offering Green for Moore but think something should be com8ng back with Moore...or am I over-valuing Green?
I'd say yes, you are over-valuing Green in this instance. Moore was a mid-1st last year and while he may not have lit the world on fire, all things considered, he performed well for a 21 year old rookie. Almost on pace for 1000 yards in his last 8-10 games. He's unlikely to be as good as AJ Green (although it's possible) but you're getting 9 years younger. If I had Green, I'd be happy to acquire Moore straight up.

 
I'd say yes, you are over-valuing Green in this instance. Moore was a mid-1st last year and while he may not have lit the world on fire, all things considered, he performed well for a 21 year old rookie. Almost on pace for 1000 yards in his last 8-10 games. He's unlikely to be as good as AJ Green (although it's possible) but you're getting 9 years younger. If I had Green, I'd be happy to acquire Moore straight up.
Thanks brother.  I have won this league the last two seasons, very tough competition and an aging squad.  May need to try a one for one Green for Moore offer as my next youngest WR is Arob, (after Julio, Edelman, Fitzgerald and multiple random low ceiling guys).

Having a tug of war between seeing if this roster can win again and starting to retool on the fly.

 
Thanks brother.  I have won this league the last two seasons, very tough competition and an aging squad.  May need to try a one for one Green for Moore offer as my next youngest WR is Arob, (after Julio, Edelman, Fitzgerald and multiple random low ceiling guys).

Having a tug of war between seeing if this roster can win again and starting to retool on the fly.
There's no reason not to send the offer as Green for Moore + 2nd, but I'd be ready to accept if the counter was straight up.

 
Here are my top 25 rookies (1QB PPR). The tiers are defined by the range of picks I see as good value for players within the tier. 

 *  =  guys I see as good value, relative to their ADP/market value, the guys I'm most likely to end up drafting. 

1.01
1. Josh Jacobs - RB*

1.05+
2. N'Keal Harry - WR 
3. Miles Sanders - RB

1.08+
4. Kyler Murray - QB*
5. TJ Hockenson - TE*
6. Noah Fant - TE*

1.10+
7. Darrell Henderson - RB*
8. David Montgomery - RB

2nd round
9. Deebo Samual - WR
10. AJ Brown - WR
11. Parris Campbell - WR
12. DK Metcalf - WR
13. Marquise Brown - WR
14. Andy Isabella - WR*
15. Mecole Hardman - WR

3rd round
16. Damien Harris - RB
17. Devin Singletary - RB
18. Irv Smith Jr. - TE
19. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - WR
20. Alexander Mattison - RB
21. Hakeem Butler - WR
22. Dionta Johnson - WR*
23. Jalen Hurd - WR*
24. Myles Boykin - WR*
25. Dwayne Haskins - QB*

Value I like in the 4th round and beyond:
Jordan Scarlett*
Daniel Jones*

 
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What do you think the value of these three assets combined is ; Robby Anderson, Sammy Watkins, 2020 mid first ; in terms of upgrading to a better WR. 12 team PPR.

 
Mark Football said:
What do you think the value of these three assets combined is ; Robby Anderson, Sammy Watkins, 2020 mid first ; in terms of upgrading to a better WR. 12 team PPR.
My guess would be an aging vet like Julio could be possible.  You can basically forget any of the top ~10 receiver I'd imagine as Anderson and Watkins don't present much of a floor to be comfortable giving up one of the best.  Maybe Diggs or Thielen something like that to the right owner?  Hard for me to judge considering I put Sammy out to pasture 2 years ago basically.  The only thing of value in those 3 pieces to me is the 1st, which I'd say it's pretty equal to N'Keal Harry for now.  Anyone around his ADP seems like a solid place to start looking.  

 
If you were to trade Lindsey for a WR, who would you want in return?  I've tried for a number of different WRs with no luck.
Just gave another owner LeSean McCoy + Chris Godwin for Lindsay. My team was flush at WR, and I also have Gurley, but am thin at RB. Even if Lindsay doesn't approach last season's numbers, it's worth it to me to get McCoy off my roster and look at likely taking Henderson at 1.07 to handcuff Gurley.   

 
My guess would be an aging vet like Julio could be possible.  You can basically forget any of the top ~10 receiver I'd imagine as Anderson and Watkins don't present much of a floor to be comfortable giving up one of the best.  Maybe Diggs or Thielen something like that to the right owner?  Hard for me to judge considering I put Sammy out to pasture 2 years ago basically.  The only thing of value in those 3 pieces to me is the 1st, which I'd say it's pretty equal to N'Keal Harry for now.  Anyone around his ADP seems like a solid place to start looking.  
I'm with you on Sammy, but you might be surprised how much value he still has and it got a huge boost with Tyreek's situation. I can't remember the deals now, but I've seen him moved for waaaay more than I'd pay.

Mark Football said:
What do you think the value of these three assets combined is ; Robby Anderson, Sammy Watkins, 2020 mid first ; in terms of upgrading to a better WR. 12 team PPR.
If you find the right owner (a Sammy truther who needs depth), I think you could get a top 10 WR back for that. I'd want more than Julio. Robby and Watkins are both 26, while Julio is 30. If you're targeting Julio, I'd try to utilize just Watkins plus one of those other two pieces.

 

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