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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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13 minutes ago, roarlions said:

Any other opinions/evaluations for Henry? How many RBs, if any, in next year's class would you rank ahead of Henry?

I think it depend a lot on league.  Is it a PPR league?   I think he’s less valuable in PPR leagues the way he’s currently being used. 

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23 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

I think it depend a lot on league.  Is it a PPR league?   I think he’s less valuable in PPR leagues the way he’s currently being used. 

For my personal situation, it is a PPR league, but he still ranks #4 among RBs and #20 overall. Doesn't seem like he could be much higher than those ranks in a non-PPR league. He'd probably be the #1 RB in non-PPR, but I'm not sure that makes much of a difference in terms of trade value.

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21 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I've always been pretty low on him, but it's hard to ignore what he's doing. I'd trade a late 1st/2nd package without question. I wouldn't like it, but might trade a mid 1st for him if I needed a back. I couldn't bring myself to trade a top 4 pick for him, however.

As a Henry owner such an offer would get a reject without a counter from me. It wouldn't even begin the conversation. Not that I'm looking to sell but it would take a minimum of two 1sts with one being early, or a starting player plus a 1st. And even then it would have to knock my socks off. 

 

1 hour ago, roarlions said:

Any other opinions/evaluations for Henry? How many RBs, if any, in next year's class would you rank ahead of Henry?

I'd say maybe one or two RBs in this class as being on par with Henry, with the tiebreaker going to Henry for having actually done it in the NFL.

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3 minutes ago, BearsFan4Life said:

I was offered:

DHenry and TLockett

for 

my Bell and Julio

Gotta take that right?

I also have McCaffrey, Hopkins, Godwin, KAllen, DFreeman 

 

I would

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On 12/5/2019 at 9:24 AM, barackdhouse said:

As a Henry owner such an offer would get a reject without a counter from me. It wouldn't even begin the conversation. Not that I'm looking to sell but it would take a minimum of two 1sts with one being early, or a starting player plus a 1st. And even then it would have to knock my socks off. 

That’s perfectly fair. His UFA status scares me a bit. I think Tennessee is a great spot for him. Do they pay up? Does he hold out if they franchise him? But ultimately he’s too TD dependent for my tastes, and I don’t anticipate his TD rate holding.

I think my valuation is on the low end and yours on the high end. It sounds like you view him on par with the 1.01. I think that’s at least as far from the mean as my 1.06ish. 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s perfectly fair. His UFA status scares me a bit. I think Tennessee is a great spot for him. Do they pay up? Does he hold out if they franchise him? But ultimately he’s too TD dependent for my tastes, and I don’t anticipate his TD rate holding.

I think my valuation is on the low end and yours on the high end. It sounds like you view him on par with the 1.01. I think that’s at least as far from the mean as my 1.06ish. 

I would agree, I don't think anyone is paying that high a price for a RB that doesn't catch passes and is probably looking to cash in with his only big contract due to his age. If I owned him and was a contender, I wouldn't sell for the 1.06 either as I'd be hoping he resigns in Tennessee and he continues to put up big rushing/TD numbers next year.

Tenn has a lot of cap space (although middle of the pack compared to all teams), so my guess is he resigns, but stranger things have happened with runningbacks the last few years.

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I try my best to avoid reading hype of any prospects until I take a look at them myself.  So I'm just now starting to dive into 2020 players.  Got through a few RB's today for some initial reactions and note jotting.  But then I looked at my top15 dynasty RB's in my rankings and noticed they're basically all 25 years old or below.  Plus the ~3-5 more you add in for 2020 (into a top20) we could be looking at a really deep RB landscape coming up if these rookies hit, and the players in the league continue with what they've done.  

Just an interesting observation that a top20 could look very different depending on who you ask.  I would imagine a top2 is pretty clear, but after that it could literally be any number of 10 other guys.  There's a case to be made for them all.  

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Rank these TE's for their future dynasty value

Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith Jr, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly

All of them showed off a little this year at times, all are basically 26 or younger (except Higbee who is 27), and all are potential breakout's next year.  

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Guess nobody knows for those TE's either.  

Anyways on to a different topic I suppose.  Got an offer for Deebo today.  Jordan Howard and a 2021 2nd.  Obviously didn't take it, but if that's how buyers view his value then good grief am I not selling.  Ever.  

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34 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Guess nobody knows for those TE's either.  

Anyways on to a different topic I suppose.  Got an offer for Deebo today.  Jordan Howard and a 2021 2nd.  Obviously didn't take it, but if that's how buyers view his value then good grief am I not selling.  Ever.  

I got a late 2020 1st rounders + Kerryon Johnson for Deebo (late 1st rounder turned into the 1.12 unfortunately. non-ppr fwiw.) but it seemed like good enough value to sell Deebo at the time. OF course, then Deebo has a nice end of season run and I'm kicking myself a little.  But there are those who'd pay a late 1st, I think.

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Posted (edited)
On 1/5/2020 at 8:38 AM, Zyphros said:

Rank these TE's for their future dynasty value

Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith Jr, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly

All of them showed off a little this year at times, all are basically 26 or younger (except Higbee who is 27), and all are potential breakout's next year.  

Personally I'd rank them:

Jonnu Smith

Tyler Higbee

Ian Thomas

Irv Smith Jr

Will Dissly

Gerald Everett

Hayden Hurst

 

The top of this list is tough as Higbee has now got the proven production (which feels a bit weird to say) and is in a good offense. I still view Smith as a better talent though and with some upside to come (even with some uncertainty about how he will be used going forward) so I'd still put him higher - even just thinking about who I'd be more excited about having on my team, that would be Smith over Higbee. Higbee's is a nice target though if you need immediate production.

Ian Thomas is a pretty close third for me and could move up depending on what happens with the new coaching staff. He feels like a bit more of a dart throw than the other two right now though. I like Irv Smith as a talent but Rudolph is still there and week to week I don't see his usage being consistent. I'll rank him here though because I see him probably still holding his value through next season even if he does not much because people had a high opinion of him coming out as the TE3 in that class. 

The others are a bit more uninteresting to me. Dissly is a guy I wouldn't mind having on the end of my roster as a third TE but the combination of that offense, the emergence of Metcalf, the injuries and even the presence of Hollister move him down a fair bit relative to what he's shown on the field (which is more than Ian Thomas and Irv Smith at this point, and maybe even Jonnu).

Everett and Hurst are a full tier or two below the others for me. Everett just seems like he's not going to happen, despite the draft capital and move TE profile, especially now that Hignee has emerged. Maybe on a second team that uses him more? I don't have much hope for him on the Rams and I didn't see him as worth his draft pick coming out. At the time the pick seemed like a blatant attempt to recreate Jordan Reed with an inferior player and it just hasn't worked out.

Hurst is just roster clogger material for me when you taken into account the competition from Andrews, the run heavy offense and his age. He was a first rounder and he has produced a bit when he gets opportunity, but it's hard to see any consistent production in the future from him. In TE premium he should be rostered but I wouldn't bother in most other formats, even very deep leagues. 

Edited by RushHour

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50 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Guess nobody knows for those TE's either.  

Anyways on to a different topic I suppose.  Got an offer for Deebo today.  Jordan Howard and a 2021 2nd.  Obviously didn't take it, but if that's how buyers view his value then good grief am I not selling.  Ever.  

Far out that's a brutal offer.

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I would rank those TEs:

 

Tyler Higbee

W. Dissly

J. Smith

Ian Thomas

Irv Smith Jr

Gerald Everett

Hayden Hurst

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Posted (edited)

Irv Smith Jr
Tyler Higbee

Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst

Will Dissly
Jonnu Smith
Ian Thomas

My TE rankings.

Edited by ZWK
I initially miscopied my rankings, putting Ian Thomas ahead of Jonnu Smith
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On 12/6/2019 at 9:40 AM, Concept Coop said:

That’s perfectly fair. His UFA status scares me a bit. I think Tennessee is a great spot for him. Do they pay up? Does he hold out if they franchise him? But ultimately he’s too TD dependent for my tastes, and I don’t anticipate his TD rate holding.

I think my valuation is on the low end and yours on the high end. It sounds like you view him on par with the 1.01. I think that’s at least as far from the mean as my 1.06ish. 

26 TDs in his last 20 games since he was made bellcow. Scored a TD in 15/20 games. Personally at this point I am bullish on the Tenn offense in general taking another step forward next year. I don't really give them much of a chance against Baltimore but that's less an indictment of them and more about how good the Ravens look. Then again, if they just give it to Henry on every play again they might just win.But I do think there are TDs to be had in the Tennessee future, with Henry the key cog in that.

It's certainly fair to question that he'll hold that TD rate, but even if it went down a bit he would still be an RB1. Finished this season as RB3 in PPR in points per game. 

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Irv Smith Jr
Tyler Higbee

Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst

Will Dissly
Ian Thomas
Jonnu Smith

My TE rankings.

I keep seeing Jonnu at the top of everyone’s list. Really don’t see it based on what others have done on the list compared to him. Was wondering what I was missing until I saw ZWK’s list. 

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6 hours ago, Denver724 said:

I keep seeing Jonnu at the top of everyone’s list. Really don’t see it based on what others have done on the list compared to him. Was wondering what I was missing until I saw ZWK’s list. 

As a rebuttal, I would ask what has G. Everett or H. Hurst done?  Even I. Thomas?  I. Thomas had a good stretch in 2018, but did nothing with expanded playing time in stretches this year.  I had J. Smith 3rd, but I could be talked into sliding him behind Irv Smith. I switched Irv and Thomas after this post after talking it out loud.

Tyler Higbee

W. Dissly

J. Smith

Irv Smith Jr

I. Thomas

Gerald Everett

Hayden Hurst

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3 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

As a rebuttal, I would ask what has G. Everett or H. Hurst done?  Even I. Thomas?  I. Thomas had a good stretch in 2018, but did nothing with expanded playing time in stretches this year.  I had J. Smith 3rd, but I could be talked into sliding him behind Irv Smith. I switched Irv and Thomas after this post after talking it out loud.

Tyler Higbee

W. Dissly

J. Smith

Irv Smith Jr

I. Thomas

Gerald Everett

Hayden Hurst

I think you’re too low on Irv Smith.  Are you just not a believer? 

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5 hours ago, Shrugs said:

What’s Godwin’s value in picks now?

Wouldn't give him up for less than multiple firsts

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3 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

As a rebuttal, I would ask what has G. Everett or H. Hurst done?  Even I. Thomas?  I. Thomas had a good stretch in 2018, but did nothing with expanded playing time in stretches this year.  I had J. Smith 3rd, but I could be talked into sliding him behind Irv Smith. I switched Irv and Thomas after this post after talking it out loud.

Tyler Higbee

W. Dissly

J. Smith

Irv Smith Jr

I. Thomas

Gerald Everett

Hayden Hurst

I would put Irv and Ian over Jonnu. Maybe even Gerald. 

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Posted (edited)

I’m surprised with how high everyone has Dissly in these rankings.  He’s been in the league two years and has had a significant injury each year.  Add to that the emergence of Hollister and I have a hard time ranking him out of the bottom 3. 

Edited by Boone22

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1 hour ago, Mr. Peterson said:

I think you’re too low on Irv Smith.  Are you just not a believer? 

I'll justify those ahead of Irv.

Higbee had an impressive stretch to end the year, he looked legit. 

Dissly seemed to have quite the start to the year.  Will was largely considered not very athletic so I hope he can come back from achilles more than someone that is strictly athletic or plays athletic position.  I oftentimes think that position switch is overblown, but Dissly switched from DE to TE his freshman year of college so he still may be learning somethings at the position.  I like him to come back strong next year.

J. Smith seemed very explosive and I liked what I saw after D. Walker went down.  I think J. smith is TE1 for the Titans next year and that offense looks to have turned around in a big way.

Irv seemed to flash here and there.  Rudolph is signed through 2023 and realistically will be on roster through 2021 season, unless Vikings willing to take 5.8 mill cap hit next year or 4.3 mill cap hit 2021. I like Irv to eventually be starter, but those above have track to be TE1 on their team next year.  

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1 hour ago, Denver724 said:

I would put Irv and Ian over Jonnu. Maybe even Gerald. 

Gerald over Jonnu?  

Jonnu was TE 14 last 8 weeks of season.  

Gerald was TE48, but he missed 3 weeks due to injury so he would be higher, but not at the level of Jonnu.  I also think Higbee is the TE to own on rams and Jonnu is starter next year for Titans.

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1 hour ago, Boone22 said:

I’m surprised with how high everyone has Dissly in these rankings.  He’s been in the league two years and has had a significant injury each year.  Add to that the emergence of Hollister and I have a hard time ranking him out of the bottom 3. 

He hasn't played many games but he was really good when he did. He has a great QB who loved throwing to him in the red zone. He's expected to be ready to go by the start of next year. He's 23 years old. 

His injuries have dropped him down to the right tier IMO. There are many reasonably young prospects at TE who have long lists of pros and cons, as this discussion is showing. Maybe Dissly won't be the same after his two injuries. If he is, though, he could be really good for a long time. 

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Personally for me that group goes like this:

Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Irv Smith, Higbee, Dissly, Everett, Hurst

Judging by a lot of the responses I'm in the minority here though.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Personally for me that group goes like this:

Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Irv Smith, Higbee, Dissly, Everett, Hurst

Judging by a lot of the responses I'm in the minority here though.  

I just don't really think it matters very much in practical terms.  If there's a guy you like the most, put him at the top of the list.  Ask six different guys and you may end up with six different TEs at the top.

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I have guys like Dissly and Higbee way ahead of the rest.  Maybe Irv nearby but the rest way behind.

I'm not sure why people are so quick to disregard Higbee as having just benefitted from opportunity with the Everett injury while at the same time ignoring that Jonnu and Ian Thomas had the same opportunity and farted with it.

I get the reason to have a little optimism around guys like Jonnu and Thomas with their athletic profile and the occasional flash but we see 10 of those guys every year.  I'd rather have the relatively young guys that have actually produced as top 5 TEs for a decent stretch.  I haven't run the numbers but I would guess those guys stick at a much higher rate.

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Posted (edited)

By 2019 overall PFF grade: Higbee, Dissly, Everett, Hurst, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith, Thomas

By 2018-19 receiving DYAR: Higbee, Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hurst, Everett, Thomas, Irv Smith

By my formulaic TE projections formula: Hurst, Irv Smith, Dissly, Higbee, Thomas, tie between Everett & Jonnu Smith

By 2018-19 receiving yards: Higbee, Everett, Jonnu Smith, Hurst, Thomas, Dissly, Irv Smith

By 2018-19 receiving YPT: Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Higbee, Hurst, Everett, Irv Smith, Thomas

All of these comparisons are somewhat unfair to Irv Smith since he's just a rookie. A big part of the case for Irv Smith (and to a lesser extent Hurst) is based on draft position or what you thought of them coming into the league.

Edited by ZWK
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On 1/9/2020 at 6:42 AM, wgoldsph said:

Wouldn't give him up for less than multiple firsts

1.02 and 1.06?

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12 hours ago, Shrugs said:

1.02 and 1.06?

Right now I'm staying pat.  2 will get you one of the top rb who'll be starting, but it probably won't be the one I want (swift) and 5 on seems like where the draft starts to lose any sort of consensus.

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Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

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2 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

Personally I wouldn't do it, but I expect his value to be a little bit more than the 1.01.  I'd rather have 1.01 but I'm a little low on Tyreek Hill.  

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2 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

Don't know but he got traded in an FFPC league of mine last night along with throw in Big Ben and brought back Austin Hooper,  1.8,  4.8, 2021 second and Baker Mayfield.  I would take 1.1 over what he got back but if you believe in Hooper I think it's easy to see that as equitable value to the 1.1.

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On 1/4/2020 at 3:38 PM, Zyphros said:

Rank these TE's for their future dynasty value

Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith Jr, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly

All of them showed off a little this year at times, all are basically 26 or younger (except Higbee who is 27), and all are potential breakout's next year.  

I only play one league that is not TE premium so I tend to look at TE's in that 1.5 PPR prism. So saying that I tend to value players I project as more reception then TD based.

 

Tier one:

Irv Smith- his ability blows everyone on this list away IMO.  Rudolph might be in his way for another year, long term QB concerns with Cousins in last year of deal but his talent is worth the wait if it necessary and he won't even turn 22 until training camp.

Higbee- yes Everett was coming on and took an injury to him for Higbee to explode and that should not be totally ignored(otherwise he'd easily top this list). But they extended him handsomely well before he broke out,  hard to ignore production and Goff seemed to put more trust in him then I ever saw him put in Everett and probably plenty of room for both of them next year because I expect two TE sets to be more of the norm next year for the Rams.

Ian Thomas- Totally different kind of athlete then Irv but in somewhat similar situation with older TE in his way and QB in last year of his deal.  But I feel odds of Olsen retiring are more likely then not.   Also this caught my eye last week when Bieniemy interviewed for the Panthers job and in the interview he reportedly had laid out a plan for Cam and mentioned his excitement working with CMC, DJ Moore and Ian Thomas.   The fact a potential head coach is invoking Thomas name with just those other two as players he is excited to work with was kind of eye opening. Of course he did not get the job but still eye opening. The guy who got the job had a brief stint with Saints and way they use TE's is great. Not sure how much of the "Saints" offense that Brady will run but hard not to think it's a major influence on him.

Tier two:

Dissly- Just injuries move him down this list. If he's healthy he should be a tier one and he should make a full recovery but hard to just ignore two significant season ending injuries and impact it might eventually have on him.

Tier 3:

Everett- he flashed but seems blocked for relevant fantasy success in 2020 due to Higbee and WR depth on Rams. Can't see Rams paying him and Higbee after 2020, so one way or another things should eventually open up for him but might have to wait it out another year, maybe. I did say earlier I anticipate Rams running more 12 personnel next year so might be room for him and Higbee but I'd not be shocked if Rams entertained trade offers for him either. Maybe you are thinking if Rams are going to run more 12 personnel why would they trade him? Fair question but a lot of teams need TE help, this draft class is thin at TE and as we know they take time to develop anyway. Already mentioned he is in last year of his deal and they can't pay both him and Higbee.  Combine that with Rams lack of draft picks and need to address some holes it's possible if they get the right offer and feel comfortable with someone like Mundt as second TE.

Tier 4:

 

Jonnu-he's been the starting TE for most of the last two years so it's not like he's not been given a chance to break out. Great athlete, better real life player then fantasy player however.  Just does not get used enough and I don't think its' because of poor scheme. He's just more athlete then receiver. He's a great red zone threat, 5 targets on the year in red zone with 5 catches, 2 TD's and 3 first downs. But especially in 1.5 PPR type league I want a TE who is more involved and I think his route running and feel for where to attack zone coverage is sorely lacking and thus I think his potential to ever get much volume is super low.

Tier 5:

 

Hurst: zero value relative to roster size unless Andrews goes down or he gets traded. I did hear rumors of Ravens including him in trade offers near this past deadline  but just rumors I'm not sure had legs but because of that I grabbed him off some waiver wires last week or two of the season in some leagues just in case he gets dealt. If not, he's an easy cut for me.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

 Austin Hooper,  1.8,  4.8, 2021 second and Baker Mayfield.  I would take 1.1 over what he got back but if you believe in Hooper I think it's easy to see that as equitable value to the 1.1.

I guess I'm not a believer because I don't see any way that is equitable value.

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20 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Tier 5:

Hurst: zero value relative to roster size unless Andrews goes down or he gets traded. I did hear rumors of Ravens including him in trade offers near this past deadline  but just rumors I'm not sure had legs but because of that I grabbed him off some waiver wires last week or two of the season in some leagues just in case he gets dealt. If not, he's an easy cut for me.

Funny, I caught something on the ESPN live broadcast when it was minutes before the trade deadline.  They were expecting more manuevers and commented about Hurst being "available" but the source never indicated what Balt was after (run stuffing DL was announcers guess?)  I know Hurst was highly valued when first drafted, but that has long passed due to injuries and the emergence of the Running Game & Andrews.  

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4 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I would rather have the 1.01 but then I feel the sins of the past are never forgotten and too often repeated (thus removing all your value).  

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4 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I can't believe this is a question. Then I read above posters would take the 1.01. Guess I'm way off on this, I wouldn't take 2 1.01's for Tyreek.  

Edited by cloppbeast

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I guess I'm not a believer because I don't see any way that is equitable value.

I'm not either but Hooper outscored Hill in PPG last year so if you believe this is not a fluke or he's close I would think getting 1.8, a second, and hope Baker turns out it around is equitable.

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Anyone looking for another league, I made a post in the looking for leagues forum... figured this would be a good place to make a plug. 

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4 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I like 1.1 better, but I dont care for Tyreek. Honestly Tyreek is likely worth more. In situations where I have a bias I refer to the dynasty trade calculator. It has Tyreek worth 1.1 and 1.10. I'd try for 1.1 and 2.1 

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15 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I would rather have the 1.01 but then I feel the sins of the past are never forgotten and too often repeated (thus removing all your value).  

I lean on Hill over the 1.1 right now and would look at this way.

  Comparing him to my top two Wr's,  Juedy and Lamb,  with as much as I like those two WR's with the high bust rate of top drafted WR's in both fantasy and real life just no way can I trade a proven soon to be 26 year old for unproven WR talent.

So then I would have to look only way I'd trade Hill for 1.1 was to draft a RB. I like a lot of RB's in this draft, it's deep. Today I would take Swift at 1.1 if I was OTC.  But I don't see a RB right now that just blows me away as can't miss or on par with what Hill can provide my teams next few years  so unless my team was just desperate as hell for RB I'd not trade Hill for a chance to draft a RB at 1.1 until the NFL draft was over and I knew exactly who I was trading Hill to draft.

Now saying all that I got one concern on Hill. He's just going to be 26 and next few years should be glorious but I do worry about a guy whose entire game is based on speed falling off a cliff in a hurry when he starts to slow down. So I'll probably look to move him in next year or so on some teams but not yet.

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5 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

He’s certainly worth that, and unless I was in a 2QB league and really hurting at QB it would take more than that for me to move him. 

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5 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I would move tyreek for the 1.01 in a heartbeat. He's too volatile for me. I'd rather have a shot at a stud rb. 

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Not sure why people are ignoring that Hill really had a "just ok" year this year.  He had the monstrous year last year but that was alongside Mahomes' insane 50 TD year that Mahomes likely won't repeat often if ever.

Hill's 16 game pace this year was 77-1146-9 which is solid, but you can get those kind of numbers out of Allen Robinson or Tyler Lockett.   He put up basically those same numbers in 2017.

Obviously Hill's upside is massive and we can talk about some off and on injuries with him and Mahomes this year, but this is football that kind of stuff is going to happen.  Great player, but it's not like this is Michael Thomas we are talking about here.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Not sure why people are ignoring that Hill really had a "just ok" year this year.  He had the monstrous year last year but that was alongside Mahomes' insane 50 TD year that he likely won't repeat often if ever.

Hill's 16 game pace this year was 77-1146-9 which is solid, but you can get those kind of numbers out of Allen Robinson or Tyler Lockett.   He put up basically those same numbers in 2017.

Obviously Hill's upside is massive and we can talk about some off and on injuries with him and Mahomes this year, but this is football that kind of stuff is going to happen.  Great player, but it's not like this is Michael Thomas we are talking about here.

Well said!  But KC has added more weapons .. like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson while Kelce & Watkins are available too.  So maybe Hills overall Targets are taking the hit?!? 

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31 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Well said!  But KC has added more weapons .. like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson while Kelce & Watkins are available too.  So maybe Hills overall Targets are taking the hit?!? 

The only player added was Mecole Hardman and he didn't have a huge role in the offense - like FreeBaGel said it was most just a case of Mahomes regressing to the mean as most people that understand statistics saw coming to some extent. Hill is a tremendous talent but those 2018 numbers will be hard to replicate often. 2017 and 2019 (pace) is more likely the norm - and that's still pretty good. 

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