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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)

Andy Dufresne said:
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?
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The harm is the risk that your team gets hit with injuries and/or underperforms and the pick ends up being a high one. Now whether that risk is realistic or not, you would know better. As long as you hit on the pick this year, the downside is minimal.

 
FF Ninja said:
That was the point. People give Cook a pass on his poor combine while writing off JW. I'd argue burst and agility are much more important than 40 time, though, so I don't think Cook's 4.49 vs. JW's 4.59 is actually a big deal.
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People that gave Cook a pass did so based on what he showed on film at FSU. Cook was also drafted much earlier than Williams which should say something.

I'm with you on preferring Williams to Jones and Montgomery (if I had to target one) - but you downplay the risk of the Packers drafting a RB or one of the other two surpassing him more than I do in my valuation of him. I think he's a solid hard runner but I also wouldn't even put him on Eddie Lacy's level, so not sure he has that upside.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?
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If there is any truth to the notion that the 2019 class is weak compared to 2018, then a 2019 1.07 might be equal to the current 2018 1.10. Roughly.

Also, transitioning to PPR from nonPPR? And people are cool with that? I prefer PPR myself but that's a pretty big change.

 
FF Ninja said:
The harm is just in the risk that your team gets injured and you end up with a top 5 pick next year and have massive regret about trading that pick away. But if you need a RB then this is not a bad year to trade for the 1.10. I wouldn't do it to draft any other position, though.

On the other hand, if your team is stacked and you're going to have a hard time making cuts, it's not a bad gamble to trade away the 1.10 this year for someone else's 1st. The odds of it being a worse pick next year are pretty low.

ETA: I would wait until 1.10 was actually on the clock, though, so you make sure you get who you want.
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What if the offer expires on Thursday morning?

 
Tick said:
What if the offer expires on Thursday morning?
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If the offer expires before the NFL draft, I wouldn't do it. I'd at least need to see how the draft shakes out so I have an idea of who will be there at 1.10 and what their situation will be.

 
FF Ninja said:
That was the point. People give Cook a pass on his poor combine while writing off JW. I'd argue burst and agility are much more important than 40 time, though, so I don't think Cook's 4.49 vs. JW's 4.59 is actually a big deal.
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I don't think people are giving Cook a pass for his scores, his pros just overshadow his cons. He's turned in the tape and the production in a way that Williams clearly hasn't. 

A tenth of a second is a huge deal. 4.49 is 80th percentile, while 4.59 is 49th. Cook is fast; Williams is not. 

 
Also, in an IDP league. 1.10 might be an okay place to take Roquan Smith if the RBs/WRs go in the exact wrong sequence. Even Goedert/Gesicki could be an option.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
People that gave Cook a pass did so based on what he showed on film at FSU. Cook was also drafted much earlier than Williams which should say something.

I'm with you on preferring Williams to Jones and Montgomery (if I had to target one) - but you downplay the risk of the Packers drafting a RB or one of the other two surpassing him more than I do in my valuation of him. I think he's a solid hard runner but I also wouldn't even put him on Eddie Lacy's level, so not sure he has that upside.
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I'm not advocating for anyone trading Cook for Williams. Just pointing out that players can succeed and be view favorably in the FF community without crushing the combine.

I don't mean to downplay the risk of the Packers drafting a RB, but I do think the combo of Rodgers' injury last year + JW's pass blocking + JW's performance as the bell cow does mitigate the risk of him getting surpassed on the depth chart by Montgomery or Jones. Drafting a rookie would be a huge problem because I like a lot of the rookies in this class. It's a risk for sure, but I do think logically the Packers have bigger needs. And while nobody stands out on their roster, the trio of JW, Jones, and Ty is a pretty nice, cheap stable of RBs.

My interest in JW is primarily as lead/goal line back of a great offense. I'm not projecting him to be a cornerstone of anyone's roster for the next 6-7 years. I think in the most rosy of best case scenarios he could surprise and be a true 3-down back and get a nice 2nd contract, but for now I am just expecting him to be the tallest midget on high scoring offense.

Concept Coop said:
I don't think people are giving Cook a pass for his scores, his pros just overshadow his cons. He's turned in the tape and the production in a way that Williams clearly hasn't. 

A tenth of a second is a huge deal. 4.49 is 80th percentile, while 4.59 is 49th. Cook is fast; Williams is not. 
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Once again... I think agility and burst are more important than 40 time. Going from 80th percentile 40 time to 49th percentile isn't a deal breaker for me.

 
Which side of this proposal you like?

12 team, ppr, can start up to 3 rb

McCoy, D Henry

or

Mixon, 2.01

For some reference, side giving up shady has the 1.01, fournette, and gurley

team giving up mixon has Dalvin and Mixon and no 1sts if its turned down

 
Price check on Devontae Booker. I own Henderson, and was offered Booker for the 2.04.

I'm tempted to take it, because I think the price will go up if Denver doesnt' draft a RB early. But if they do draft one of the top 4 or 5 RB's, his price drops big time.

What's the conensus on Denver's plans?

 
kutta said:
Price check on Devontae Booker. I own Henderson, and was offered Booker for the 2.04.

I'm tempted to take it, because I think the price will go up if Denver doesnt' draft a RB early. But if they do draft one of the top 4 or 5 RB's, his price drops big time.

What's the conensus on Denver's plans?
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Heavy pass for me. Booker hasn't looked very good to me, and I expect the Broncos to draft a back. And I really like the value in the 2.04 range this year. 

 
Pwingles said:
Which side of this proposal you like?

12 team, ppr, can start up to 3 rb

McCoy, D Henry

or

Mixon, 2.01

For some reference, side giving up shady has the 1.01, fournette, and gurley

team giving up mixon has Dalvin and Mixon and no 1sts if its turned down
Click to expand...


Andy Dufresne said:
Mixon/2.1 for me.

Buffalo lost their two (three?) best linemen from a line that wasn't very good to start with.
Click to expand...
Same. I'd move McCoy and Henry for Mixon alone. 2.01 is icing. 

 
FF Ninja said:
I'm not advocating for anyone trading Cook for Williams. Just pointing out that players can succeed and be view favorably in the FF community without crushing the combine.

I don't mean to downplay the risk of the Packers drafting a RB, but I do think the combo of Rodgers' injury last year + JW's pass blocking + JW's performance as the bell cow does mitigate the risk of him getting surpassed on the depth chart by Montgomery or Jones. Drafting a rookie would be a huge problem because I like a lot of the rookies in this class. It's a risk for sure, but I do think logically the Packers have bigger needs. And while nobody stands out on their roster, the trio of JW, Jones, and Ty is a pretty nice, cheap stable of RBs.

My interest in JW is primarily as lead/goal line back of a great offense. I'm not projecting him to be a cornerstone of anyone's roster for the next 6-7 years. I think in the most rosy of best case scenarios he could surprise and be a true 3-down back and get a nice 2nd contract, but for now I am just expecting him to be the tallest midget on high scoring offense.

Once again... I think agility and burst are more important than 40 time. Going from 80th percentile 40 time to 49th percentile isn't a deal breaker for me.
Click to expand...
It seems like Rodgers prefers Jones to Williams, based on his public comments.  He's gushed over Jones, while showing little interest in Williams.  At least from what I've read the past 9 months.

 
Pwingles said:
Which side of this proposal you like?

12 team, ppr, can start up to 3 rb

McCoy, D Henry

or

Mixon, 2.01

For some reference, side giving up shady has the 1.01, fournette, and gurley

team giving up mixon has Dalvin and Mixon and no 1sts if its turned down
Click to expand...
I am one of the biggest Mixon doubters on this board and I would still take his side here. 

 
kutta said:
What's the conensus on Denver's plans?
Click to expand...
This was from yesterday from Jeff Legwold:

One of the more revealing nuggets in John Elway's answers about all things Broncos today was about the team's draft approach in the wake of running back C.J. Anderson's release. Asked about the depth of the running back class in this draft Elway said: "We feel good about the fact we'll be able to get a good one." It would seem the Broncos will look to select at least one from what it is a deep group, especially in the draft's first three rounds.

 
kutta said:
Price check on Devontae Booker. I own Henderson, and was offered Booker for the 2.04.

I'm tempted to take it, because I think the price will go up if Denver doesnt' draft a RB early. But if they do draft one of the top 4 or 5 RB's, his price drops big time.

What's the conensus on Denver's plans?
Click to expand...
I discussed this a couple pages back in the thread here

I do like Booker but I think you would be paying a higher price than I would be comfortable with. Pick 18-20 is the highest I would give up for Booker and I would feel more comfortable with giving pick 25 or later for him due to the uncertainty of what the Broncos will do in a very deep and talented RB class.

I don't follow Denver closely so I couldn't really answer your question about Denvers plans in the draft or at the RB position. Personally I think they have greater needs elsewhere and shouldn't use a high pick at RB, but if they really love one or more of these RB, certainly possible they draft one early, and as I mentioned in the previous post, I do think there there are several RB from this draft class who could take the job from Booker, including Henderson.

I think you should get a discount to buy Booker at this time because of the uncertainty of what the Broncos will do in the draft.

I only see two RB on the Broncos roster right now, Booker and Henderson, if I am missing someone let me know, but if that is all they have at the position they will no doubt add RB through the draft or rookie free agency. They need at least 2 more RB for training camp depth. The question is how high of an investment will Denver make? Which RB do they get?

I think the top 8 RB from this draft class could at least force some sort of time share with Booker and Henderson, if not win the job outright.

Anderson split less with Booker last season under McCoy as the OC than Devener had been splitting opportunities under Kubiak/Dennison. Musgrave takes over as OC now that McCoy was fired, and looking at his history there were few instances of major time share or RBBC with Musgrave, so maybe that doesn't change, not sure. Maybe they want to go back to splitting opportunities more again?

Booker has been decent as a receiver, so perhaps he maintains this role even if the Broncos draft a RB good enough to split with him.

I wouldn't pay 2.04 for Booker at this time. You are right that the price could go up if the Broncos do not add a very good RB, but none of us know that yet and by going up that likely means pick 16 instead of pick 20 type of move. I think the Booker owner is asking a bit too much. If I were the Booker owner I would likely try something like this as well. I do like Booker and I would be happy to wait and see what happens if I had him instead of selling cheaply right now.

 
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Pwingles said:
Which side of this proposal you like?

12 team, ppr, can start up to 3 rb

McCoy, D Henry

or

Mixon, 2.01

For some reference, side giving up shady has the 1.01, fournette, and gurley

team giving up mixon has Dalvin and Mixon and no 1sts if its turned down
Click to expand...
Mixon by a ton because I like him a lot and bcause if I was listing out my top 3 bust candidates for 2018 McCoy and Henry would both be in that top 3.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
It seems like Rodgers prefers Jones to Williams, based on his public comments.  He's gushed over Jones, while showing little interest in Williams.  At least from what I've read the past 9 months.
Click to expand...
Rodgers also liked Jordy and his old QB coach.

That being said I don't recall when those comments were made by Rodgers, was it when Jones got arrested or was injured? Would not change how I valued them but sometimes players get talked up that need some encouragement.

 
kutta said:
Price check on Devontae Booker. I own Henderson, and was offered Booker for the 2.04.

I'm tempted to take it, because I think the price will go up if Denver doesnt' draft a RB early. But if they do draft one of the top 4 or 5 RB's, his price drops big time.

What's the conensus on Denver's plans?
Click to expand...
I think it is almost certain that Denver takes a RB in the first three rounds. Would you be comfortable entering this season with the RB group Denver currently has?

Sony Michel in round #2 to Denver looks like a great fit. 

 
Alex P Keaton said:
It seems like Rodgers prefers Jones to Williams, based on his public comments.  He's gushed over Jones, while showing little interest in Williams.  At least from what I've read the past 9 months.
Click to expand...
It's been a while, but the quote I saw was basically AR's version of coachspeak. It was like 1-2 lines IIRC that really meant nothing, but it's morphed into this narrative that AR likes one guy and doesn't like the other. In reality, I think it is much ado about nothing. And even if it was true, AR doesn't make lineup decisions. Hell, he's been in the news lately because they didn't even talk to him about releasing Jordy. So in conclusion, (1) I don't think Rodgers really prefers one over the other and (2) it wouldn't matter if he did.

 
Ack88 said:
I think it is almost certain that Denver takes a RB in the first three rounds. Would you be comfortable entering this season with the RB group Denver currently has?

Sony Michel in round #2 to Denver looks like a great fit. 
Click to expand...
Agreed...can not see Denver not adding a quality RB in this draft...after not adding one in FA and letting CJA go they are pretty much forced to...whoever that rookie is will be in a spot to be productive...that being said as long as it is not Barkley that they are adding you have the be happy as if you are a Booker owner (and I am not)...whether you like him or not it does appear he will be given an opportunity to be productive this year...after two sluggish years that is really all you can hope for...

 
kutta said:
Price check on Devontae Booker. I own Henderson, and was offered Booker for the 2.04.

I'm tempted to take it, because I think the price will go up if Denver doesnt' draft a RB early. But if they do draft one of the top 4 or 5 RB's, his price drops big time.

What's the conensus on Denver's plans?
Click to expand...
In one of my leagues, Booker and a 2019 1st for Dalvin Cook.  Booker owners should see what they can get....

 
I offered 1.04 and a 2019 1st (probably mid) for Michael Thomas and was turned down. Just throwing out a data point on Thomas.

 
miqws said:
In one of my leagues, Booker and a 2019 1st for Dalvin Cook.  Booker owners should see what they can get....
Click to expand...
I hate Cook and I'd do that.

I offered a 3rd for Booker in a league and was insta-declined without a comment so I guess it was insulting?  I can see not wanting to move him and just see what happens, but all signs point towards Denver adding competition relatively early in the draft, so I'm unwilling to offer more. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?
Click to expand...
Depends on league imo. If you want a QB or RB, I'd do it. If, like my main league, WRs are King, I'll go into next year. Plus the risk as already mentioned.

FF Ninja said:
I'd be the 1.

In the age of pass first offenses and RBBCs, I think it's time to go back to 0ppr. Make RBs relevant again!
Click to expand...
I don't know if you're joking but I hate this thought. PPR doesn't make RBs irrelevant, but it does make different RBs more valuable and other backs relevant that might not otherwise be worth much. 

 
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RC94 said:
I have Jeffrey in a PPR and wouldn't consider giving him up for this.
Click to expand...
Understandable, that's just what i think his value is.  Some will value Alshon higher than an early 2nd.  Personally this draft has a bunch of prospects who will be available in the 12-17 range that i'd prefer over him.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
i have zero interest in him so wouldn't give up the early 2nd.  That's just where i see his value.  
Click to expand...
Your valuation is very different from the consensus then.

He’s probably a mid 1st right now. Having Wentz plus his performance last year to end the year was pretty good despite apparently having a nagging shoulder since training camp. That offense is in for a regression but I think the loss of TDS will come with an increase in yards

 
gabes1919 said:
Your valuation is very different from the consensus then.

He’s probably a mid 1st right now. Having Wentz plus his performance last year to end the year was pretty good despite apparently having a nagging shoulder since training camp. That offense is in for a regression but I think the loss of TDS will come with an increase in yards
Click to expand...
Based on what? Production at the end of the year with a different qb? If I needed a wr and had the 1.06-1.12 pick I wouldn’t even be inquiring about Alshon. Lots of more productive WRs you could target for that pick in a trade. I don’t expect a large uptick in targets or a sudden dominating, injury free season from him. I don’t understand how the offense regressing and him losing tds could possibly make him better than last year. He played in 16 games last year. He hasn’t topped 60 catches the last 3 years, although 2 of those were cut short for injuries. If you get points for catching a ball on 3rd down, he’s your man. I don’t think he sniffs 80 rec or 1000 yds. Td dependent possession guy. 

 
kutta said:
Price check on Devontae Booker. I own Henderson, and was offered Booker for the 2.04.

I'm tempted to take it, because I think the price will go up if Denver doesnt' draft a RB early. But if they do draft one of the top 4 or 5 RB's, his price drops big time.

What's the conensus on Denver's plans?
Click to expand...
I'd keep 2.4.

I personally wouldn't give a pick in the first 3 rounds for Booker (so I'm not going to own him). I don't even think it will take a highly picked RB to either surpass him outright or create this into a committee. 

 
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FF Ninja said:
What makes you say that? I saw the opposite. Williams looks hungry to me. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense each week and hitting the hole hard, breaking tackles. Jones appeared to just take what was available and go down on first contact. But to be fair, Jones didn't get as many games to showcase his skills. 

Anyway, watch some of Williams and tell me he doesn't look hungry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QWYU4ZTleU
-most notably 1:18 and 2:53

Then you've got Jones. Easy tackle #1. Easy tackle #2. The guy just doesn't handle contact as well as Williams, which is fine if he's elusive. I just haven't seen him being particularly elusive despite his nice 3-cone and shuttle numbers at the combine. 
Click to expand...
Apologies for not responding, busy week. I will concede that JW looks like he takes contact well, better than Jones. However, I don't see how you can say he's not elusive. 5.5 ypc doesn't just happen for anyone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNsWF22gJ9w

He absolutely torched the Saints with Hundley under center. Jones definitely does not invite contact the way JW does but he seems to have verry good vision and is slippery through the hole and the secondary. I will note that in this game, we see that Jones looks kind of bad as a receiver out of the backfield. Keeps tripping or his routes are easily covered by the defense. That last part may have been a Hundley issue but he is still in need of polish in that area. You don't stay on Rodgers' good side doing that #### even if you do get up and finish your route. 

Personally, I would rather have the guy with the vision than the hard nosed grinder. JW does seem to handily have the advantage when it comes to receiving ability but Montgomery is also still there so it may not matter for either guy as Monty has shown to be a very good pass catching back if nothing else. I prefer Jones but JW ended the year with the job and will likely start the year with it so I like the opportunity. If Jones is in fact suspended, JW should seize the job. If Jones isn't look for a headache come preseason. I'm personally trying to own both of these guys in my leagues.

 
gabes1919 said:
Your valuation is very different from the consensus then.

He’s probably a mid 1st right now. Having Wentz plus his performance last year to end the year was pretty good despite apparently having a nagging shoulder since training camp. That offense is in for a regression but I think the loss of TDS will come with an increase in yards
Click to expand...
As a Bears fan I will tell you that to me he is overrated. Always injured and not as great of a contested ball catcher as people think, even though that is considered his greatest strength.  

He is a very solid possession WR and is more than capable of going off in a given game. I *might* pay a late 1st if the situation was right. But not likely.

 
dipandglide said:
How do you guys feel about Bortles and Tanehill in 2QB formats? Are you buying or selling? 
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Don’t understand the the Tannehill hate that is out there. The guy was hurt last year and he fell off a cliff in dynasty. Historically, he seems to be a 3800/24/14 ish type of QB. Not great but definitely serviceable. I’d be buying in 2 QB because the cost should be negligible. I think you get a nice return for the investment.

Inactually like Bortles to step back up a little this year. Say what you will about his decision making, he was damn good in the afc championship. If the play calling had been better and they had let him take some shots, they might have won. Plus they just improved their offensive line. He is also a buy for me but more as a QB 2-3 fringe until we see something to start the season because that defense and run game are probably going to be the game plan

 
dipandglide said:
How do you guys feel about Bortles and Tanehill in 2QB formats? Are you buying or selling? 
Click to expand...
All my leagues are 2QB except for 1 FFPC league. 

I have Tannehill on a roster and I'm not nervous about him at all (mostly because he's QB3 or 4 on my rosters).  I think there is a very good chance he surprises people and is a serviceable QB2 for the year.  I'd be buying him as a bye week filler for sure, and a QB2 in some cases depending on my roster.  If for instance I had a top tiered QB, Tannehill and the 1.05 or something like that, I'd be comfortable with that knowing I'd grab a QB at 1.05.  

As for Bortles, I don't hate him, and he has good games as a fantasy guy, so as long as the team keeps him, I'm keeping him.  If I could sell for a early 2nd and still be ok at QB for the long term, I'd probably do it.  Even though I have faith he'll be solid as long as he's the starter, he's unlikely to be the starter for 3+ more years.  I'd cash out while I might be able to.  

 
dipandglide said:
How do you guys feel about Bortles and Tanehill in 2QB formats? Are you buying or selling? 
Click to expand...
I'm in a 2QB league and would buy Tannehill because I think he bounces back and his value is down so he should be affordable.  Depending on scoring, buying a QB like Tannhill cheap can be a very good deal and can help most people's teams.  I would sell Bortles because last year was about as good as it gets with him and the extension JAX gave him may have helped his fantasy trade value.  I don't like Bortles for the long term at all.

 
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