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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (12 Viewers)

Deamon said:
He likely 'should' be taken in between the pumpers and the bashers.  I see him right around WR5 but it seems there's going to be the "told you so" people who gamble on him at wr2 or wr3.  He won't be a 'value' pick this year but I agree he is going to likely be drafted at his ceiling.  He does seemingly have a high season-long floor too though so it wouldn't be a league losing pick.
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To be fair most first round (and maybe even second round) picks are drafted at their ceiling.

 
Mr. Peterson said:
I still can’t believe I got this guy in a dynasty for a couple of 5th round picks.  
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Wow - see no matter how bad it looked for him that’s just stupid. 5th round picks are basically worthless. The worst trade I saw for him was for a third round pick which I also thought was stupid. Hold and hope if that’s all you can get. In three of my five leagues that’s what the owners did and it worked for them. 

Now at least those who sold for “only” 1st round picks got something potentially valuable at least, even though that now looks cheap - but at the time it may have made sense to those that are risk adverse.

I only had Hill in one league. When this story first broke and it looked very  bad for him, but still before it looked at its very worst (the release of the audiotape), I sold Gurley and Hill for Diggs, Aaron Jones, the 1.07 and Gus Edwards (owned Ingram). I came off back to back Championships - and Hill and Gurley were big parts of that of course - so I just figured shaking things up and not dealing with the headache of Hills “crime” and Gurley’s knee all offseason was worth selling at somewhat of a discount.

I’m still ok with that deal despite it now looking like a loss overall. I like the players I got back and still have one of the stronger teams in the league. I’m probably higher on Jones than most though.

There was no chance I would have given Hill away for a second, third or two fifth round picks though. 

 
Deamon said:
This was a very interesting read and definitely provides a good possible explanation for a lot of things.

I do find it hard to read just how many anonymous sources the author has though.  And it really seems like he is trying to make a big splash and a big name for himself.  Seems way too "look at how important I am and how good my research is" to take overly seriously.  I do agree he could be right, but the writing style is suspect.
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Agreed.  This medium article, combined with the complete lack of punishment or criminal charges from those who investigated (police, child services, NFL, AND doctors/nurses), is what makes me very suspicious of everything we've heard.  It's also highly suspicious that Tyreek denies the 2014 charges he plead guilty to on the full audio without any comment from Espinal.  It strikes me as very strange that Espinal would not dispute what Tyreek is saying about that whole thing being fabricated.  

It's easy to see why Hill would plead guilty to that even if he was innocent - especially since the plea meant no jail time... and if you know anything about trials and the frequency of plea deals in modern criminal justice, it's almost a foregone conclusion.  Would you want to risk having 12 PFT commenters on your jury, or take the guaranteed no jail time and the chance of saving your football career?  IANAL, but If he was guilty and they had pretty good evidence against him, the plea deal offered probably wouldn't have been that friendly.

When you add up everything here, it paints Hill in a different light than the media.  For me, it introduces enough doubt for me to feel terrible about drawing conclusions without having real facts.

 
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dipandglide said:
Oh, and stop putting 100% stock into what you hear on the news. If there's one lesson here it's that you should think for yourself and wait for facts before drawing conclusions. 
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If you're making social commentaries, like reporters do, or like we might be doing when we all argue about this stuff on boards like this or elsewhere, yes. 

But when you're in the middle of a huge hand of poker, the rules of the game are literally that you can't possibly know the facts, but are required to act anyway. You may be right that holding was the best move here, but hindsight is the decider on that. Just like after folding a hand and realizing later you would have won if you'd stayed in, there are those of us that felt compelled to bail on Hill, based on the limited (but really powerful) information we had at the time. 

Speaking for myself, I got a lot more than peanuts for selling him, but no question it was at a now realized loss. I took the possibility into account that this would happen and decided I would be ok folding what could have been the winning hand. I feel the measured, marginal fold (of an admittedly really large pot) was better than shipping all my chips and losing. 

Hey @dipandglide I wasn't trying to direct this at you just decided your quote was a good jumping off place.

Otherwise yeah here is me eating crow. I was wrong I'll eat it.

 
Any worry he might not be in 100% shape due to the clusterf of the offseason? I am having a hard time not ranking him as a top 10 player for redraft. Migjht just have to go with it. 

 
Foosball God said:
Of course not.  I'm not looking to get into a debate about it because neither of us know anything.  I just think it is disingenuous to say that the opinion is simply people refusing to admit they were wrong.  There are far to many unknowns here for the NFL to be sure of anything.  So looking at this within the lens of some of their other personal conduct suspensions isn't just anti-Hill sentiment.
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:lmao:

 
Deamon said:
If the result was what the majority believed would happen (lengthy suspension), than it would have been a good move.  So many people around here love to criticize people's choices only based on the result.  No one expected no suspension.
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This isn’t true....some in here were criticized for their choice before the result because they were making that choice with no details and self righteously convicting him. 

 
Foosball God said:
Of course not.  I'm not looking to get into a debate about it because neither of us know anything.  I just think it is disingenuous to say that the opinion is simply people refusing to admit they were wrong.  There are far to many unknowns here for the NFL to be sure of anything.  So looking at this within the lens of some of their other personal conduct suspensions isn't just anti-Hill sentiment.
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You gotta be ####ting me.

90% of you were wrong. End of story.

 
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Some people just can’t admit they were wrong. I also love it when people pretend like this is somehow not good for Tyreek Hill and his draft position / value or ability to produce this year and in the future.....like he just laid around for the last couple of months and ate donuts.  It’s almost like they were dumb enough to trade him away at pennies on the dollar and think talking trash about him on some random internet chat board means anything in terms of actual NFL value and productivity. Just sad and stupid....

Congrats to anyone who held or bought low on Hill. You will be handsomely rewarded. 

 
barackdhouse said:
If you're making social commentaries, like reporters do, or like we might be doing when we all argue about this stuff on boards like this or elsewhere, yes. 

But when you're in the middle of a huge hand of poker, the rules of the game are literally that you can't possibly know the facts, but are required to act anyway. You may be right that holding was the best move here, but hindsight is the decider on that. Just like after folding a hand and realizing later you would have won if you'd stayed in, there are those of us that felt compelled to bail on Hill, based on the limited (but really powerful) information we had at the time. 

Speaking for myself, I got a lot more than peanuts for selling him, but no question it was at a now realized loss. I took the possibility into account that this would happen and decided I would be ok folding what could have been the winning hand. I feel the measured, marginal fold (of an admittedly really large pot) was better than shipping all my chips and losing. 

Hey @dipandglide I wasn't trying to direct this at you just decided your quote was a good jumping off place.

Otherwise yeah here is me eating crow. I was wrong I'll eat it.
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Well said.  I personally don't play dynasty so wasn't affected at all by this, but I really can't fault or throw people under the bus who sold him and are at a loss because of it.  The poker analogy is right, and it sucks that human nature is to obsess over being 'right' to the point of judging a decision based on how something unexpected played out. 

Obviously those who sold for 2 5th rounders shouldn't have done it, I'm not saying give him away for nothing.  But if someone like yourself or Octopus made an assumption based on the news, and a calculated risk by gaining some assets for them, then I applaud those moves even if it didn't work out.

Again, everyone takes risks in fantasy by over drafting a guy, taking a risk on an injured player, starting a guy you have a good feeling about, etc.  Even many of the good decisions at the time, don't work out.  This result was a surprise to the majority.

 
In my couple leagues the owners who had hill who are the kinda lazy, don’t do much owners just kept him and didn’t take any offers.   The other two leagues with the active owners sold him for 1st and 2nd round picks.   

 
Has anyone come across a well documented timeline of the events and evidence?

edit- The above link is what I was looking for. Thanks

 
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Looks like inactive dynasty owners are the winners here while those who were swayed by posters (here and other forums, FBG rankings, Twitter, etc.) speculating long suspensions or worse and sold cheap are the real losers here. Maybe there's a lesson to be learned here.

 
TDCommish said:
Looks like inactive dynasty owners are the winners here while those who were swayed by posters (here and other forums, FBG rankings, Twitter, etc.) speculating long suspensions or worse and sold cheap are the real losers here. Maybe there's a lesson to be learned here.
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It works both ways though. If he was suspended indefinitely than those teams would be the losers. There are examples where reading the writing on the wall would have helped active owners (Gordon, Bryant, and maybe Gurley for examples). There’s probably an equal number of examples on both sides.

I don’t think it pays to be inactive but it can pay to be patient. Here it would have. Now we just look forward to the season, and see what happens.

 
I’m not here to rub anyone’s face in this. But I am willing to suggest that avoiding Todd Gurley because of his knee is just as dumb trading Tyreek Hill on the cheap.

You don’t give up on a stud player until he’s actually off the field or clearly a shell of himself.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think making blanket statements is dumb.
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That thinking leads to trading away Tyreek Hill for a garbage sack lunch. Being stubborn with blanket statements protects you from that. That’s how my brain is wired at least.

Sometimes you have to be irrational. My logic is if I have a stud player, I refuse to have him blow up on somebody else’s team.

This thinking will protect you much more than it will hurt you. Willing to give up the 30% chance I’m wrong to be right 70% of the time.

 
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It’s like playing blackjack. Even if you’re counting cards, you’re not going to hit against a 6.

You sit back and let the dealer beat you like a man. Worst case scenario here was that Hill comes back next year or missed some games.

It was never like his next 3-4 years were in jeopardy.

 
Raptors409 said:
That thinking leads to trading away Tyreek Hill for a garbage sack lunch. Being stubborn with blanket statements protects you from that.
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No it doesn’t that’s the whole point. Every trade has some level of risk-reward analysis and saying “trading Gurley is dumb” does not take into account that there very well could be something seriously wrong with his knee and for fantasy purposes he’s now a RB2 for the rest of his career but his name value may still land you a nice package in return.

No one is suggesting trading these players away for garbage because that also does not take risk v. reward into consideration.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
No it doesn’t that’s the whole point. Every trade has some level of risk-reward analysis and saying “trading Gurley is dumb” does not take into account that there very well could be something seriously wrong with his knee and for fantasy purposes he’s now a RB2 for the rest of his career but his name value may still land you a nice package in return.

No one is suggesting trading these players away for garbage because that also does not take risk v. reward into consideration.
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Trading Gurley is dumb because it’s the antithesis or buy low, sell high.

It’s all opinion, so I’m not going to try to convince you to think otherwise. But there are certain players in their prime that are untouchable to ME.

Gurley is 24. Until he gets tackled on the field and doesn’t get back up. Until the Rams decide they don’t want to pay him $14,000,000 a year to be their lead back. He’s going to be on MY TEAM and not anyone else’s.

 
Back to the numbers - 87/1479/12 - repeatable?  Certainly, but I did notice, as his YPR has jumped from 9.7 to 15.8 to 17.0, his catch % has dropped from 73 to 71 to 63.  It's that 63% that gives him the "inconsistent" label, but for me that doesn't change where I would draft him, which is right around WR4 or 5.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The thing is at one point his entire career was in jeopardy - do you think if he did actually break his kids arm in anger he was going to be playing next season or the season after? He could have went to jail.
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I still think you willingly take the complete loss. It’s just as catastrophic having him scoring 2 touchdowns for 130 yards on someone else’s team. Getting a future first helps nothing. This guy is irreplaceable. Without him you’re rebuilding or at least much less dangerous than before and a few draft picks ain’t going to change that.

But that’s just me and differing opinions is what makes this country great.

”I’m proud to be an American...”

 
TheWinz said:
Back to the numbers - 87/1479/12 - repeatable?  Certainly, but I did notice, as his YPR has jumped from 9.7 to 15.8 to 17.0, his catch % has dropped from 73 to 71 to 63.  It's that 63% that gives him the "inconsistent" label, but for me that doesn't change where I would draft him, which is right around WR4 or 5.
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I would imagine it’s normal for catch % to drop when YPR go up since deep balls are lower percentage plays.

Obviously one cant say those numbers are not repeatable, but it’s unlikely Mahomes matches last season’s numbers - even if he develops into a better NFL QB. It’s a simple matter of statistics. It stands to reason if Mahomes comes back to the pack a little Hill’s numbers can go down a little. I’d still expect him to be a top 10 and probably top 5 WR when all is said and done though.

 
What this saga has done has made those who drafted early and got Hill in late rounds have some pretty amazing rosters. There were some who refused to draft Hill due to what some thought was a certainty of some length suspension, or maybe permanent ban, and some didn't want a player that was a terrible child- beating, girlfriend-abusing POS on their squad. These folks are now kicking themselves a bit as their decision to DND list Hill has given their team a disadvantage.

I know if you go through early TFC drafts (which are the semi-equivalent of the FFPC FBG leagues, without the TE premium scoring), you'll find there are teams that got Hill in rounds10-14. I don't believe you can get into the FFPC teams and check (that's really a bonus of RT Sports), but there are guys grumbling on boards that there's no reason to join leagues anymore because the winning team has already been drafted and it got Hill late.

It really throws leagues out of balance.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I would imagine it’s normal for catch % to drop when YPR go up since deep balls are lower percentage plays.

Obviously one cant say those numbers are not repeatable, but it’s unlikely Mahomes matches last season’s numbers - even if he develops into a better NFL QB. It’s a simple matter of statistics. It stands to reason if Mahomes comes back to the pack a little Hill’s numbers can go down a little. I’d still expect him to be a top 10 and probably top 5 WR when all is said and done though.
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I just thought his 15.8/71 looked better than his 17.0/63.  That's a pretty big drop in % for a mere 1.2 YPR.  KC was 9th in pass attempts, over 100 behind PIT, and 23rd in total plays, but 1st in scoring and total yardage.  While I don't foresee a repeat by Mahomes in the TD department, he can easily increase his attempts.

 
ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio suggests the Chiefs may look to trade contract-year WR Tyreek Hill.

The Chiefs plan to resume long-term talks with Hill now that he's been cleared of a suspension. The sides weren't close before his off-field situation, so it's hard to see a deal getting worked out. Hill could push for $20 million annually — potentially pricing himself out of Kansas City. With Mecole Hardman as an in-house fallback, it's possible the Chiefs tag-and-trade Hill next offseason.

SOURCE: ProFootballTalk on NBCSports

Jul 20, 2019, 11:40 AM ET
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TDCommish said:
Looks like inactive dynasty owners are the winners here while those who were swayed by posters (here and other forums, FBG rankings, Twitter, etc.) speculating long suspensions or worse and sold cheap are the real losers here. Maybe there's a lesson to be learned here.
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Can't really make these generalizations. I'm an active repeat champ in the league where I have Tyreek and refused to sell for a 1st, 2nd, or devy. He was worth way too much to me to panic like that. I never thought he'd never play again, and it never smelled right to me for some reason. 

This feels like a weird defense mechanism to me. "I can't feel bad about my moves because I just fell victim to being an active owner! Ahh the pitfalls of being too GOOD at this!" lol

 
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Milkman said:
Florio is a troll at this point. Just click bait. 
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He’s been wrong on everything so far regarding Tyreek’s case.  He’s basically led the charge for Tyreek never to play in the NFL again.  I won’t read or watch Florio ever again after the crap he’s done with Hill’s case.  I pretty sure when it is all said and done, the Chiefs will extend Tyreek and Florio will be totally wrong again.  It’s going to be pretty ironic if Florio loses his job over how he’s covered this case.

 
Kevrunner said:
He’s been wrong on everything so far regarding Tyreek’s case.  He’s basically led the charge for Tyreek never to play in the NFL again.  I won’t read or watch Florio ever again after the crap he’s done with Hill’s case.  I pretty sure when it is all said and done, the Chiefs will extend Tyreek and Florio will be totally wrong again.  It’s going to be pretty ironic if Florio loses his job over how he’s covered this case.
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Yeah I can understand how emotions can get the best of people but he owes Tyreek, the NFL, and the Chiefs organization an apology. Until he publicly comes out and does that I can't take anything he says seriously because he's only worried about clicks not about get the info right. 

 
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Deamon said:
Well said.  I personally don't play dynasty so wasn't affected at all by this, but I really can't fault or throw people under the bus who sold him and are at a loss because of it.  The poker analogy is right, and it sucks that human nature is to obsess over being 'right' to the point of judging a decision based on how something unexpected played out. 

Obviously those who sold for 2 5th rounders shouldn't have done it, I'm not saying give him away for nothing.  But if someone like yourself or Octopus made an assumption based on the news, and a calculated risk by gaining some assets for them, then I applaud those moves even if it didn't work out.

Again, everyone takes risks in fantasy by over drafting a guy, taking a risk on an injured player, starting a guy you have a good feeling about, etc.  Even many of the good decisions at the time, don't work out.  This result was a surprise to the majority.
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It’s one thing to make fake football decisions based on what little or no information you have. Kinda like in poker. It’s another thing to adamantly judge and convict a dude based on what little or no information you have. Both of those things happened in here. Hill was called a monster and a child abuser in here because of what they thought happened recently.  He HAD to be guilty. I was called names and had my character and integrity called into question simply for wanting to see how things played out.  The Chiefs organization was called classless, etc. Those that threw out snap judgments and convictions maybe need to look in the mirror and and do a little self reflection. 

It was easy to jump to conclusions and convict him, there were a lot seats and company on that bus.  That was easy to do. Mob mentality, go along with the masses, sit at the cool kids table. It was harder to sit back and wait for details. That made you a bad guy, etc. Again, its one thing to make fantasy decisions, its another to make pretty serious accusations, determinations, and judgements, and to be wrong.  Some egg on some faces and some belly full of crow. 

Hill should be a slam dunk top five WR, and Mahomes stock and possibilities of actually following up last year with another uber elite year are increasing. They added another explosive piece to an already loaded offense.  Lots of fantasy points coming.  

 
Stinkin Ref said:
It’s one thing to make fake football decisions based on what little or no information you have. Kinda like in poker. It’s another thing to adamantly judge and convict a dude based on what little or no information you have. Both of those things happened in here. Hill was called a monster and a child abuser in here because of what they thought happened recently.  He HAD to be guilty. I was called names and had my character and integrity called into question simply for wanting to see how things played out.  The Chiefs organization was called classless, etc. Those that threw out snap judgments and convictions maybe need to look in the mirror and and do a little self reflection. 

It was easy to jump to conclusions and convict him, there were a lot seats and company on that bus.  That was easy to do. Mob mentality, go along with the masses, sit at the cool kids table. It was harder to sit back and wait for details. That made you a bad guy, etc. Again, its one thing to make fantasy decisions, its another to make pretty serious accusations, determinations, and judgements, and to be wrong.  Some egg on some faces and some belly full of crow. 

Hill should be a slam dunk top five WR, and Mahomes stock and possibilities of actually following up last year with another uber elite year are increasing. They added another explosive piece to an already loaded offense.  Lots of fantasy points coming.  
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Your patience paid off for sure this time.  Other times it doesn't.  I had a friend close to the Lions organization a few years back that told me Calvin was gonna retire and there wasn't even a sniff of it anywhere.  I posted it in here and got scolded and mocked and ridiculed as much if not more than you did in here.  So I get where you're coming from.  In that case though, those who were 'patient and waited for the real news to come out' got burned.  A few people traded him and were HEAVILY rewarded because they weren't patient.

I suppose you are right that people who threw the book at him right away should have been patient... and yes I fully agree with you that they shouldn't have traded him for peanuts... but from a fantasy standpoint, all I'm saying is that sometimes 'waiting for all the details to come out" can hurt you and you have to act preemptively to win this fake football game we all play.  So I don't blame those who ultimately lost out, but got a decent return for him at the time.  Sucks for them and didn't work out but patience can be a good or bad thing in fantasy football/the stock market/etc.

 
Foosball God said:
:shrug:  I'm with him on this.  Doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of some other suspensions.  But, it really doesn't make much difference one way or the other I just hope Hill's son is out of danger whomever the culprit is.
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This I agree with completely. I hope the child is out of danger, and the suspensions don’t make a whole lot of sense. Herndon gets four games for DWI, but the NFL seems reluctant to punish in domestic violence cases. I don’t believe Hunt would have been suspended without the video. As a matter of fact, I seem to recall that the NFL was going to let him walk, and then the video was released. They need to reassess how they approach these cases.

 
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