How can an NFL team have WR be their No 1/2/3 priority when you just watched the Chiefs win B2B Super Bowls without them? (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

7 of the past 10 SB winning teams featured a HOF TE. Why don’t all teams draft a TE with their first pick?

This was a few years ago but back in one of the rb threads I ran the numbers on the non-qb position with the highest correlation of top players to super bowl wins and the answer was.....punter.

(K and TE were next on the list if I recall).

 

[jon_mx]

Not every team has Mahomes.

Yep. For a QB like Goff to have a Super Bowl caliber offense, he needs a top OL, top RB duo, and several great targets at WR. The path to fielding a contender is different for every team. There is not cookie-cutter solution.

 

[Gr00vus]

Seems like MOP was focusing a bit more on the salary allocation consideration than the draft capital consideration. I'm of the opinion that having a lot of your cap space tied up in WR is a bad idea at this point. It seems like you can get serviceable WRs, good enough for championship play, without taking up a large proportion of your cap, either through FA or draft. As mentioned, it seems like colleges are cranking out really good receivers regularly in decent amounts. Why spend your cap space there, when there's a solid chance you can get something pretty good on a rookie deal?

Obviously your biggest cap allocation should be to your QB if he's championship quality. Outside that, I'd be looking at O-Line, edge rush, CB. I'd probably look at interior D-Line after that. Then WR/TE.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Seems like MOP was focusing a bit more on the salary allocation consideration than the draft capital consideration. I'm of the opinion that having a lot of your cap space tied up in WR is a bad idea at this point. It seems like you can get serviceable WRs, good enough for championship play, without taking up a large proportion of your cap, either through FA or draft. As mentioned, it seems like colleges are cranking out really good receivers regularly in decent amounts. Why spend your cap space there, when there's a solid chance you can get something pretty good on a rookie deal?

Obviously your biggest cap allocation should be to your QB if he's championship quality. Outside that, I'd be looking at O-Line, edge rush, CB. I'd probably look at interior D-Line after that. Then WR/TE.

Definitely economics played a part in this thread.
Miami did the exact opposite of what I had hoped, lost almost every decent free agent that hit the market
Miami also did a credible job of signing Fuller and Poyer to replace Howard and others in the Secondary.
Dolphins also brought in Brewer to start at C/G from Tennessee, resigned Lamm and Wynn on the OL, it's not quite as bad as you might think.
But...losing Wilkins, Hunt and AVG hurt a lot on both sides of the line.

We watch teams like the Patriots get by with just avg WRs when they win Super Bowls and we see what KC pulled off the last 2 seasons while they were retooling many positions.
Incredible how some teams get it and others don't. I imagine somehow that the Bills will survive these WRs they traded or let go in the off season.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Seems like MOP was focusing a bit more on the salary allocation consideration than the draft capital consideration. I'm of the opinion that having a lot of your cap space tied up in WR is a bad idea at this point. It seems like you can get serviceable WRs, good enough for championship play, without taking up a large proportion of your cap, either through FA or draft. As mentioned, it seems like colleges are cranking out really good receivers regularly in decent amounts. Why spend your cap space there, when there's a solid chance you can get something pretty good on a rookie deal?

Obviously your biggest cap allocation should be to your QB if he's championship quality. Outside that, I'd be looking at O-Line, edge rush, CB. I'd probably look at interior D-Line after that. Then WR/TE.

With some exceptions (Mahomes, running QBs like Lamar and Allen) it is becoming clear that you need two legit receiving options to be a top tier offense in the NFL. Playmakers that can produce when the opponent sells out to stop your 1. Mahomes skews SB data but if we look at conference championship teams over the past few years you see strong WR tandems. Brown/Smith, Aiyuk/Samuel, Chase/Higgins, Kupp/OBJ, Evans/Godwin. Some of those guys were high draft picks. Some of them were expensive contracts.

If the argument is that you should just draft a guy, there's no guarantee that drafting a WR works. Even if that guy isn't a complete bust, there's no guarantee he's a difference making talent like I listed above. 2023 is too early to call. Here are players from 2022-20 first two rounds that have been a bad return on the investment so far. If you need one these guys below to be your 1st or 2nd option in the passing game, you are probably in trouble.

2022:
1.12 Jameson Williams, 1.16 Jahan Dotson, 1.18 Treylon Burks, 2.11 Wan'Dale Robinson, 2.18 Tyquan Thornton, 2.21 Alec Pierce, 2.22 Skyy Moore

2021:
1.27 Bateman, 2.02 Eli Moore, 2.17 Rondale Moore, 2.24 D'Wayne Eskridge, 2.25 Tutu Atwell, 2.26 Terrace Marshall

2020:
1.21 Jalen Raegor, 2.10 Leviska Shenault, 2.14 KJ Hamler, 2.17 Chase Claypool, 2.25 Van Jefferson, 2.27 Denzel Mims,

I'm not even including mid guys like Juedy or off-field like Metchie/Ruggs. My point is that 1st and 2nd round WRs are not locks to be difference makers. Treylon Burks is probably the best possible example of this. The Titans thought they could trade AJ Brown for a 1st and pick new AJ Brown. Except new AJ Brown has been bad and the Titans GM and the coaching staff got fired. Eagles went to a Superbowl.

 

[FairWarning]

KC has tried to find a #1 WR since Tyreek left. They always had one in Kelce, and now they may have another one in Rice.

The WRs recently coming out of college are better than a decade ago, so it seems. There are some good ones, middle and late 1st round and 2nd round, like Rice, AJB, etc. Plus lots of good TEs late first, 2nd round. TE is almost like WR, what do analytics say about their added value? But WR/TE is still not like the RB position where many later round draft picks are very good. You need to invest in an early round pick of a WR/TE.

They don`t need one.

Mahomes, Brady, Peyton in his prime, Rodgers, they can get by with run of the mill WRs.

Harrison and moss are HOFers, Harrison eventually gets in.