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Fanduel Week 8 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter DukeBroadway
- Start date
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Sure you're trying to attack me. It's fine with me, but don't pretend it's anything else
Why was Theo a bad cash game play? He averages > 6 targets a game, even as primarily just a receiving RB. This week he was the unquestioned starting RB as well facing a bad Houston team. I actually didn't use him in cash, but he and Forte were my highest GPP exposures at RB.
Calling Forte a bad cash play is just flat-out wrong by any objective measure. The FBG consensus placed him AHEAD of Booker in terms of value. While I don't think that's the end-all, be-all, it's a fair indication that guys who do this for a living saw value there. He was underpriced by $500 at least.
The mases rushing to Booker was purely a function of (a) his low salary and (b) his role change. Those are good reasons to look at him for sure, but they aren't skills-driven. Dwe know if he's actually any good? Do we really know if Denver's offense is any good? But the real problem I had w/ him was figuring out where to spend the savings. WR pricing on the main slate was Julio then everyone else ~$2000 cheaper than him. If you weren't on Gronk or Olsen at TE, where were you spending the savings? I could roster the QB I wanted (Ryan) the WRs I wanted (Julio, Adams, and whomever), the TE I wanted (Kelce), the PK I wanted (Bryant), and the DST I wanted (Denver) without him. The lineup I built with him left $1200 on the table, which was not an easy thing to do in cash. Both look like they will cash, whatever that is worth.
The fixation on ownership percentages is nothing more than a hedge. I'm going to build the roster I think will score the most points. That is the lineup I'll have to be talked out of because I obviously think it's the best. But I'm conscious of the fact that it's probably NOT going to be the best lineup. So I look at what I think ownership will be and tweak things if I think it's not going to erode what I believe to be the optimal play too much. If Booker was 99.9% owned, that just means 99.9% are playing a 7-on-7 game. If he hits that doesn't necessarily follow that the 0.1% are doomed if their alternative(s) hit.
I said before play today that Forte was my favorite play at RB but openly questioned whether I would have the nerve to play him instead of Booker due to ownership. So I ultimately hedged them 50/50.
As far as QBs go, I'm entirely comfortable with my belief that you need to be in the high teens, pushing 20 @ QB. My data supports that belief.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Julio rolled his ankle. He stayed in but wasn't a factor at all. He didn't look right the rest of the evening.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
I'm currently cashing in 4 games but only 1 is safe. My best scores are in 2 free gpps that had wtf lineups - 146 and 139. Only 1 other scored over 125 out of 5.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Per the percentages I'm seeing, there isn't much action tonight. In the big Double Up Ware is over 50% and Booker is over 70%.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
If Dez does something I could make a little something in a couple GPPs.
podunker
Footballguy
I am so THANKFUL FD moved Montgomery to RB this week. I would have had a lot of LU's with him in them. I am sure he would have been in 1or 2 of my 3 cash LU's also. Because of the move to RB position, I moved him out of all my cash games. I had in 1 GPP.
I didn't find out he wasn't going until well after kickoff of the early games so that would have killed me. I had him on DK, but was able to go in and sub him out for Adams in all and that paid off...........
I'm sure a lot of people got burned on FD though........
I didn't find out he wasn't going until well after kickoff of the early games so that would have killed me. I had him on DK, but was able to go in and sub him out for Adams in all and that paid off...........
I'm sure a lot of people got burned on FD though........
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Come on Zeke!!!
I need him to double up his points to hit this line (HTF do they not give him the ball one the 4yd line!). So sad that I am looking at cash lines in the low 90s, and I still can't get there. Elliot is only about 5% owned so if he has a good 2nd half, I should be alright.
I need him to double up his points to hit this line (HTF do they not give him the ball one the 4yd line!). So sad that I am looking at cash lines in the low 90s, and I still can't get there. Elliot is only about 5% owned so if he has a good 2nd half, I should be alright.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
If I can manage to lose just half my investment, I will call it a good week.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I picked a good week to take a break. On to week 9.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Just wait until you see the games and matchups for week 9, you might want to take a second week off.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
This will be an interesting night. I had 4 cash LUs in the Thurs-Mon stuff. Currently down $4 total.
#1 is done with 88.10. Luck/Zeke/Booker/Julio/TY/Fitz/Barnidge/Prater/Tenn
Or in other works, just about every dud chalk guy.
#2 is sitting right at the brink of the low end of the 2x cash lines at 91.52. It has hit a couple of the 50/50 lines, but is a few points away from the 2x lines. This one has Walsh in the LU to go tonight. Maybe with a huge game he can sneak up to the 3x as well, but doubt it since the Minn D will be highly owned tonight.
#3 looks to be above the 2x lines at 108.5 and approaching the 3x/5x/mini dive lines. Those are currently at the 111-115 range. This LU has Rudolph to play tonight.
#4 Was the one I liked the least, but with Brady and Cooper it's sitting at 112.40. I think it is right at one 5x line and a few away from the mini dive line of 114. 100 person contest sitting at 121 here. This one has the MInn D left tonight.
#1 is done with 88.10. Luck/Zeke/Booker/Julio/TY/Fitz/Barnidge/Prater/Tenn
Or in other works, just about every dud chalk guy.
#2 is sitting right at the brink of the low end of the 2x cash lines at 91.52. It has hit a couple of the 50/50 lines, but is a few points away from the 2x lines. This one has Walsh in the LU to go tonight. Maybe with a huge game he can sneak up to the 3x as well, but doubt it since the Minn D will be highly owned tonight.
#3 looks to be above the 2x lines at 108.5 and approaching the 3x/5x/mini dive lines. Those are currently at the 111-115 range. This LU has Rudolph to play tonight.
#4 Was the one I liked the least, but with Brady and Cooper it's sitting at 112.40. I think it is right at one 5x line and a few away from the mini dive line of 114. 100 person contest sitting at 121 here. This one has the MInn D left tonight.
podunker
Footballguy
I think the low cutoffs this week are why I always play high owned chalk players in cash. Most of us probably thought we were doomed with the below 100 score. Then we looked and saw that we still had a good chance to cash.
1. So this week playing chalk kept you in the money. Not playing chalk, had a good chance of putting you in the top 25.
2. Last week playing chalk kept you in the money. Not playing chalk, had a good chance of putting you in the bottom 25.
Once again, being in the top 25 is great in GPP's, in cash games I just want to be above the cash line, it all pays the same.
Just my opinion of course, but it's taken a lot of hard lessons for me to get that opinion. That's why I love this board, everyone has an opinion on how things should be done, and more importantly they share that opinion. That is how we all learn and get better at the DFS thing. Trust me I have shared my opinion in the past and found out later that I might be wrong on that take. Please everyone keep sharing your opinions!
1. So this week playing chalk kept you in the money. Not playing chalk, had a good chance of putting you in the top 25.
2. Last week playing chalk kept you in the money. Not playing chalk, had a good chance of putting you in the bottom 25.
Once again, being in the top 25 is great in GPP's, in cash games I just want to be above the cash line, it all pays the same.
Just my opinion of course, but it's taken a lot of hard lessons for me to get that opinion. That's why I love this board, everyone has an opinion on how things should be done, and more importantly they share that opinion. That is how we all learn and get better at the DFS thing. Trust me I have shared my opinion in the past and found out later that I might be wrong on that take. Please everyone keep sharing your opinions!
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James Daulton
Footballguy
Kyle Rudolph not hooking me up so far.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
My "B" lineup was straight chalk -- my least-owned players were Adams* and Bryant @ 14.8% in the big double up. It caught its 50/50's but not its double-ups.
Last week my chalkiest (which was my "A") hit 160. My least chalky ("C") hit 157, but would have hit close to 170 had Geno not gotten hurt. My middle ("B") was the worst at 149, but still cashed. I did a totally odd lineup in 2 contests just to hedge a bit and it was useless (109).
I think ownership matters in cash, I just think it can be significantly overblown if you aren't careful. The masses can get caught-up in groupthink, then circular logic gets triggered. Take Booker -- he was an intriguing play b/c he was fairly cheap and was suddenly the clear starter. I never thought he was a "must play" based on what he was likely to return per $1.00 of salary, but certainly not a bad play. But once he reached a point he became a guy people "had" to start simply because he was likely to be heavily owned, not because he was projected to provide the best ROI. He became the guy everyone talked about by everyone like he was some "inside" play that everyone was in on. That was my point on him vs. Forte -- I projected Forte to provide a better ROI and I didn't need the salary savings b/c I liked Adams and Kelce so much. In that situation, I don't think playing the ownership game is the right call -- trust in your projections.
*Adams being that low-owned was ridiculous. I can only think of 2 reasons why he wasn't much more owned -- people missed the Cobb news or everyone had so much salary to spend after rostering Booker and Barnidge that they "upgraded". Regardless, I thought he would be way over 50% owned, and think he should have been.
Last week my chalkiest (which was my "A") hit 160. My least chalky ("C") hit 157, but would have hit close to 170 had Geno not gotten hurt. My middle ("B") was the worst at 149, but still cashed. I did a totally odd lineup in 2 contests just to hedge a bit and it was useless (109).
I think ownership matters in cash, I just think it can be significantly overblown if you aren't careful. The masses can get caught-up in groupthink, then circular logic gets triggered. Take Booker -- he was an intriguing play b/c he was fairly cheap and was suddenly the clear starter. I never thought he was a "must play" based on what he was likely to return per $1.00 of salary, but certainly not a bad play. But once he reached a point he became a guy people "had" to start simply because he was likely to be heavily owned, not because he was projected to provide the best ROI. He became the guy everyone talked about by everyone like he was some "inside" play that everyone was in on. That was my point on him vs. Forte -- I projected Forte to provide a better ROI and I didn't need the salary savings b/c I liked Adams and Kelce so much. In that situation, I don't think playing the ownership game is the right call -- trust in your projections.
*Adams being that low-owned was ridiculous. I can only think of 2 reasons why he wasn't much more owned -- people missed the Cobb news or everyone had so much salary to spend after rostering Booker and Barnidge that they "upgraded". Regardless, I thought he would be way over 50% owned, and think he should have been.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Wow. I am just glad to get through that MNF #### show and not lose my ###. Don't know how it happened because none of Rudolph, Walsh, or Minn D did a damn thing, but I ended up $12 ahead for the week. Scanning through, it looks like I caught one 2x with the Walsh LU by .3pts, and hit the exact cash line for a 5x at 114.1 with that Rudolph LU and I guess that is what cleared me into the positive for the week. I will take it. Almost at +500% for the year.KarmaPolice said:This will be an interesting night. I had 4 cash LUs in the Thurs-Mon stuff. Currently down $4 total.
#1 is done with 88.10. Luck/Zeke/Booker/Julio/TY/Fitz/Barnidge/Prater/Tenn
Or in other works, just about every dud chalk guy.
#2 is sitting right at the brink of the low end of the 2x cash lines at 91.52. It has hit a couple of the 50/50 lines, but is a few points away from the 2x lines. This one has Walsh in the LU to go tonight. Maybe with a huge game he can sneak up to the 3x as well, but doubt it since the Minn D will be highly owned tonight.
#3 looks to be above the 2x lines at 108.5 and approaching the 3x/5x/mini dive lines. Those are currently at the 111-115 range. This LU has Rudolph to play tonight.
#4 Was the one I liked the least, but with Brady and Cooper it's sitting at 112.40. I think it is right at one 5x line and a few away from the mini dive line of 114. 100 person contest sitting at 121 here. This one has the MInn D left tonight.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
All those guys (aside from arguably Jaquizz) are guys for whom we have much more data to suggest they are really good players who were facing really good matchups -- I played them all actually. Booker's situation wasn't that -- SD's rush defense isn't bad and we don't really know if Booker is necessarily good. The wisdom of the masses rushing to play him was iffy at best and outright dubious at worst.
lol gotta give you credit. you guys on this forum really stick with it once you take a stand. theres a player that you dont necessarily think is a good play yet hes 90% owned. most people would be like 'hmm...maybe i was wrong about that guy'. you are all like 'GROUPTHINK! CIRCULAR LOGIC!. lol you are approaching a nixonmask-level of denial.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
i feel like youre trolling now but fine im not doing anything other than watch my nba lineups tank so why not...
first of all, as ive said multiple times before high ownership isn't a positive for using a guy. nobody is 'chasing high ownership' like you said before. its just more that if 90% of the people are on him and you didnt like him you were probably pretty wrong. not necessarily ofc. but very likely. whats more likely... a) the entire community is wrong including all the experts and they are just using 'groupthink' and 'circular logic' and you are a dfs genius who saw through it all... or b) you were wrong. anyway...
1. $5800
2. starting rb
3. $5800
4. sd bottom 10 in advanced stats vs the run
5. $5800
6. game script (den at home, favorites = run more)
7. $5800
8. denver offense run oriented
9. $5800
10. 7th overall rb in fbg projections.
11. $5800
12. has looked good previously (albeit in a limited role).
13. $5800
14. reasonable pedigree. hes not zeke but he was a 4th round pick and would have been higher if not for injuries
15. $5800
16. pretty much no competition for carries.
also and i know i didnt mention this, hes a starting RB for only $5800!
first of all, as ive said multiple times before high ownership isn't a positive for using a guy. nobody is 'chasing high ownership' like you said before. its just more that if 90% of the people are on him and you didnt like him you were probably pretty wrong. not necessarily ofc. but very likely. whats more likely... a) the entire community is wrong including all the experts and they are just using 'groupthink' and 'circular logic' and you are a dfs genius who saw through it all... or b) you were wrong. anyway...
1. $5800
2. starting rb
3. $5800
4. sd bottom 10 in advanced stats vs the run
5. $5800
6. game script (den at home, favorites = run more)
7. $5800
8. denver offense run oriented
9. $5800
10. 7th overall rb in fbg projections.
11. $5800
12. has looked good previously (albeit in a limited role).
13. $5800
14. reasonable pedigree. hes not zeke but he was a 4th round pick and would have been higher if not for injuries
15. $5800
16. pretty much no competition for carries.
also and i know i didnt mention this, hes a starting RB for only $5800!
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
The stating $5800 over and over was a little much. Just sayin. . .
alright quick fd week 8 cash game review and then we can all move on to week 9...
QB: this was a weird week for me as you could make a legitimate case for pretty much every qb. the 2 i liked the most were brady and ryan. this was a bit of a bummer for me as i fell a little bit of a victim to the fbg groupthink. i loved brady but nobody seemed to mention him and they liked luck a lot so i went luck in my 1pm onlys and didnt cash bc of it. so many weeks this year ive diversified my lineup just for the sake of doing so and then saw it cost me lots of money. sigh.
i wasnt comfortable with rodgers. seems stupid given it was the highest o/u otb and he looked awesome but hes just been so mediocre over the last year or so and i could just see them underperform vs that atl d which occasionally shows up at home every once in a while. clearly my fears were unwarranted. also winston for the same reason. good price and great matchup on paper but i could just see them ending up with like 17-20 pts a lot with a rb td as crablegs goes for like 240-1 with an int. luck i didnt like a lot just bc i felt that a lot of times his score would be garbage time dependant.
RB: booker was the no brainer lock of the season so far. he was like 85% owned and should have been. if you use the 1pm only slate for differentiation like i do then you could have gone 100% in main slate and worked in your wares, michaels, fortes, etc in at 1.
freeman and ware were 2 and 3 for me, behind booker but ahead of the rest of the field. i particularly loved pairing freeman with ryan or with brady/julio bc i expected atl to score a bunch and sometimes you can double dip when matty ice dumps off a td pass to freeman which actually happened.
the third tier for me was dj (too expensive given other options), michael (seemed to be not as good value as the top 3 so just used 1pm), forte (fine gpp play but for cash ware seemed much better at only 100 more,), zeke (always in play, but a little pricey), quizz (better similarly priced options). all these guys i gave a second thought to but didnt actually seriously consider using in the main slate.
WR: yeah this was a straight up dumpster fire for me as i went fitz/aj/julio/dhop. didnt like adams for the same reasons as rodgers above :/ FAIL.
TE: congrats to those who went with kelce. liked him on paper but couldnt pull the trigger (MY INTUITION WAS PRETTY SOLID THIS WEEK AMIRITE?). also like graham and gronk (is it 2013 again???). ultimately ended up going barnidge 100% bc i couldnt fit anyone else in in a way that i felt improved my lineups. felt a warm feeling in my heart when he immediately caught a like 32 yd pass on the first drive. needless to say he then pretty much wasnt targeted the rest of the game as mccowns lockon love went exclusively to tps. te has been a constant source of frustration this entire year for me.
D: felt a bunch were pretty even between ne, dall, den, maybe nyj but den drastically outperformed the rest of them so if you had them you probably cashed. i was super lucky to pair them with gano in my main cash lineup. 37 special teams pts went a long way this week lol...
thoughts???
QB: this was a weird week for me as you could make a legitimate case for pretty much every qb. the 2 i liked the most were brady and ryan. this was a bit of a bummer for me as i fell a little bit of a victim to the fbg groupthink. i loved brady but nobody seemed to mention him and they liked luck a lot so i went luck in my 1pm onlys and didnt cash bc of it. so many weeks this year ive diversified my lineup just for the sake of doing so and then saw it cost me lots of money. sigh.
i wasnt comfortable with rodgers. seems stupid given it was the highest o/u otb and he looked awesome but hes just been so mediocre over the last year or so and i could just see them underperform vs that atl d which occasionally shows up at home every once in a while. clearly my fears were unwarranted. also winston for the same reason. good price and great matchup on paper but i could just see them ending up with like 17-20 pts a lot with a rb td as crablegs goes for like 240-1 with an int. luck i didnt like a lot just bc i felt that a lot of times his score would be garbage time dependant.
RB: booker was the no brainer lock of the season so far. he was like 85% owned and should have been. if you use the 1pm only slate for differentiation like i do then you could have gone 100% in main slate and worked in your wares, michaels, fortes, etc in at 1.
freeman and ware were 2 and 3 for me, behind booker but ahead of the rest of the field. i particularly loved pairing freeman with ryan or with brady/julio bc i expected atl to score a bunch and sometimes you can double dip when matty ice dumps off a td pass to freeman which actually happened.
the third tier for me was dj (too expensive given other options), michael (seemed to be not as good value as the top 3 so just used 1pm), forte (fine gpp play but for cash ware seemed much better at only 100 more,), zeke (always in play, but a little pricey), quizz (better similarly priced options). all these guys i gave a second thought to but didnt actually seriously consider using in the main slate.
WR: yeah this was a straight up dumpster fire for me as i went fitz/aj/julio/dhop. didnt like adams for the same reasons as rodgers above :/ FAIL.
TE: congrats to those who went with kelce. liked him on paper but couldnt pull the trigger (MY INTUITION WAS PRETTY SOLID THIS WEEK AMIRITE?). also like graham and gronk (is it 2013 again???). ultimately ended up going barnidge 100% bc i couldnt fit anyone else in in a way that i felt improved my lineups. felt a warm feeling in my heart when he immediately caught a like 32 yd pass on the first drive. needless to say he then pretty much wasnt targeted the rest of the game as mccowns lockon love went exclusively to tps. te has been a constant source of frustration this entire year for me.
D: felt a bunch were pretty even between ne, dall, den, maybe nyj but den drastically outperformed the rest of them so if you had them you probably cashed. i was super lucky to pair them with gano in my main cash lineup. 37 special teams pts went a long way this week lol...
thoughts???
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Especially since his salary was actually $5600. When I have some time I'll drill down on some of the other assumptions that are questionable.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Its time to put week 8 in the rear view. No point in debating it. You each have valid reasoning, so you are both partially right.
no, hes wrong. as evidenced by everybody in the entire dfs community. im sure he'll have tons of responses as to why theo riddick was a better play though.
but fine lets give up on this thread and move to week 9...
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Opinions are lik a#*holes. Let it go.
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LOL remind me, who scored more points week 8, Theo or Booker?
You are what your DFS score says you are!
Booker was the safe play, not necessarily the right one
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Come on guys, you are both pretty.
