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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (17 Viewers)

Action junk for the nightcap. Last game of the series. Angels play tomorrow, Dodgers travel tomorrow. Dodgers like to take care of business in this spot. Nothing too serious, just bored. Went to the sports betting prime tab to find the team totals..

F5 u5½ -120
Angels u4 -123
Angels F5 u2 -118
LAD score first -110

 
facook said:
Yeah I'm probably square on that Calgary side, but I am just trying to find edges to bet the better team in this league.

Also, I agree, I really like the Tiger_Cats this week.  Almost teased them up.  Might wish I had. 
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Aaaaaaandddd......I did.

 
facook said:
Aaaaaaandddd......I did.
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Just noticed they opened -1 at BOL. Really excited to see how far the line goes before we start to see resistance. Looking at that 98.21% of wagers on the SBR odds page, with the way the line opened at +1, we might be on to something brother.

 
If Tiger Cats upset as the short home dog on Saturday, I'm not sure I like the Lions anymore on Sunday. And the Lions are already receiving the majority of the spread bets, which agrees with opinions I've read this year - CFL media/journalist bias about the Lions defending home field strongly in the past..

 
did you know that Cube's Today Was A Good Day is really the Isley Brothers Footprints In The Dark I had no idea welp talk to you later. don't forget to report to training camp

 
facook said:
My son's 15th bday today so I'll miss it too.  It's ok I'm gonna keep an eye on the line and see if I can get a TiCats +3 at -120 to pay for our sushi.
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Ha! No way. What are the odds of those two people having the same birthday? Like +36525 or something right.. exactly that. Dude I've got birthday garland hanging, Minnie Mouse balloon, unicorn balloon, a birthday cake in the fridge, and a couple grand worth of Gucci bags and jewelry ready to be unwrapped. I found a brand new way to stress out - carrying a large, delicate, pink birthday cake down three city blocks in 92 degree heat without dropping it or having it melt.

 
ChainsawU said:
Ha! No way. What are the odds of those two people having the same birthday? Like +36525 or something right.. exactly that. Dude I've got birthday garland hanging, Minnie Mouse balloon, unicorn balloon, a birthday cake in the fridge, and a couple grand worth of Gucci bags and jewelry ready to be unwrapped. I found a brand new way to stress out - carrying a large, delicate, pink birthday cake down three city blocks in 92 degree heat without dropping it or having it melt.
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Same.

 
First time I've gotten to root for Luke Tasker. Seems like dude is always eating my lunch every week. Go Luke Tasker! You slippery little *******!

 
Tasker with the perfect form tackle on the intercepted two-point conversion! :excited: You're a wide receiver, Luke! There is literally nothing you can't do!

 
she stood me up. again. stood me up last night, too - had seafood reservations and everything. I literally feel like the world's biggest loser right now. man this is rough.

 
That girl's just rude. She going out of town Sunday, and I already got a date with Wicca on Monday, but you don't make plans with someone two nights in a row and break them like that. She has no idea there's thousands of dollars of Gucci waiting here for her. And now she'll never know. No way I'm giving that isht to her after that.

ChainsawU said:
Rangers have been the most profitable team in G2
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Rangers +108
Rangers o4½ +110
Rangers F5 o2½ +135

:shrug:

 
ChainsawU said:
That girl's just rude. She going out of town Sunday, and I already got a date with Wicca on Monday, but you don't make plans with someone two nights in a row and break them like that. She has no idea there's thousands of dollars of Gucci waiting here for her. And now she'll never know. No way I'm giving that isht to her after that.

Rangers +108
Rangers o4½ +110
Rangers F5 o2½ +135

:shrug:
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Return that ish ASAP

Sorry Chain.

 
ChainsawU said:
she stood me up. again. stood me up last night, too - had seafood reservations and everything. I literally feel like the world's biggest loser right now. man this is rough.
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I'm sorry Chain.  That sucks.  Maybe the booty ain't worth it.

At least we killed that Hamilton play!   :excited:

 
facook said:
I'm sorry Chain.  That sucks.  Maybe the booty ain't worth it. At least we killed that Hamilton play!   :excited:
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Boom. Right. Went 3-0 on the Rangers made me feel better, too. Dude I don't think she trying to hurt me, she just get high a lot and forgets - her brain like two sides of an evil coin. She got some mental disorders, plus she lies a lot - and she's due for her birth control right now. Add all that up and she's basically a Batman villain. Remind me of a younger me.

 
ChainsawU said:
I just don't like the feel of the Lions. With their new, high-dollar QB and a head coach whom I'm not sure knows what he's doing 100% of the time..
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ChainsawU said:
If Tiger Cats upset as the short home dog on Saturday, I'm not sure I like the Lions anymore on Sunday. And the Lions are already receiving the majority of the spread bets, which agrees with opinions I've read this year - CFL media/journalist bias about the Lions defending home field strongly in the past..
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I'm really torn on this tonight.

 
ChainsawU said:
ChainsawU said:
I just don't like the feel of the Lions. With their new, high-dollar QB and a head coach whom I'm not sure knows what he's doing 100% of the time..
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ChainsawU said:
If Tiger Cats upset as the short home dog on Saturday, I'm not sure I like the Lions anymore on Sunday. And the Lions are already receiving the majority of the spread bets, which agrees with opinions I've read this year - CFL media/journalist bias about the Lions defending home field strongly in the past..
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I'm really torn on this tonight.
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Saskatoon's first road game in many weeks.  Short home dog.  I played the Lions moneyline, but just for a little to have some action on it.

 
facook said:
Saskatoon's first road game in many weeks.  Short home dog.  I played the Lions moneyline, but just for a little to have some action on it.
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I'm gonna take the hundred bucks I won from Swirve's Red Sox F5 and join you. That was nice to come home to. I also had an epiphany on the way home about all the hype Fajardo was receiving early. I forgot he played for Sask, and there's probably some of that fanfare out there left that's pushing the road dog fave. People love to bet QBs. Plus, this way I get to stick to my initial lean on all 4 home teams. I'm witcha homie.

 
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This is sad. Lions concede the safety and allow a touchdown on the subsequent kickoff. Can't run. Can't pass for getting sacked. This is going to be 42-0 soon.

 
ChainsawU said:
This is sad. Lions concede the safety and allow a touchdown on the subsequent kickoff. Can't run. Can't pass for getting sacked. This is going to be 42-0 soon.
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Whoa.  Hard to handicap a team giving up 4 minutes into the game.  Sorry dude.

 
So I'm considering re-upping my betlabs subscription that lets you test out theories and what not.  I dug up my old college football stuff from previous years and though it would be interesting to discuss some of them on here.  Some are mine, others I found in their database, but just looking for some good open discussion on whether they are causal vs. correlated, dumb theories, etc.  

A few baselines I use is that the ROI has to be 20% over the long term, b/c the downside of "systems" is that for them to work, you have to play them all.  It's only natural that you're going to miss some, so even if you do, the ROI should still be good.  Sample size of the entire population has to be at least 30.  

I know these aren't for everyone, and I'm not advocating them at all...just wanted to create some discussion b/c it's a slow time right now and I like hearing different perspectives.

Overall, I think most are rooted in contrarian type things (lots of road dogs, conference vs. non-conference, etc).  Some have decent writeups, others don't.  Anyway, here's the first one for week 1 college FB (I'll post a few more later)

https://ibb.co/8zw6T6V

Week 1 ML Unranked road dogs with spread <6 (Wait til close)

  • Games with lower spreads are likely to be closer
  • Public money likely on home team and favorites, artificially driving up the line - hence the road play
  • 5% drop in ROI when moving to the key #6
  • Have to play line right at close to make sure doesn't move ti 6


Personal take - I think the theory makes sense, especially b/c with the close spread that really eliminates teams who scheduled cupcakes for week 1.  Downside is that you have to make sure it doesn't close at 6, eliminating the ROI.  Not sure what to think about home field advantage in this situation. 

Thoughts?

 
Tiger Fan said:
So I'm considering re-upping my betlabs subscription that lets you test out theories and what not.  I dug up my old college football stuff from previous years and though it would be interesting to discuss some of them on here.  Some are mine, others I found in their database, but just looking for some good open discussion on whether they are causal vs. correlated, dumb theories, etc.  

A few baselines I use is that the ROI has to be 20% over the long term, b/c the downside of "systems" is that for them to work, you have to play them all.  It's only natural that you're going to miss some, so even if you do, the ROI should still be good.  Sample size of the entire population has to be at least 30.  

I know these aren't for everyone, and I'm not advocating them at all...just wanted to create some discussion b/c it's a slow time right now and I like hearing different perspectives.

Overall, I think most are rooted in contrarian type things (lots of road dogs, conference vs. non-conference, etc).  Some have decent writeups, others don't.  Anyway, here's the first one for week 1 college FB (I'll post a few more later)

https://ibb.co/8zw6T6V

Week 1 ML Unranked road dogs with spread <6 (Wait til close)

  • Games with lower spreads are likely to be closer
  • Public money likely on home team and favorites, artificially driving up the line - hence the road play
  • 5% drop in ROI when moving to the key #6
  • Have to play line right at close to make sure doesn't move ti 6


Personal take - I think the theory makes sense, especially b/c with the close spread that really eliminates teams who scheduled cupcakes for week 1.  Downside is that you have to make sure it doesn't close at 6, eliminating the ROI.  Not sure what to think about home field advantage in this situation. 

Thoughts?
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Love the discussion, TF, though I have to put more thought into the theory.  Right now we'd be looking at (including spread just to show less than 6 currently):

Ucla (+3) at Cinci

FIU (+2.5) at Tulane

Utah St (+3.5) at Wake

SMU (+3) at Ark St.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Have to play line right at close to make sure doesn't move ti 6 .... Downside is that you have to make sure it doesn't close at 6, eliminating the ROI.
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agree with this based on my own stuff over the years. nothing more frustrating. happened to me a few days ago with St Louis and opponents lined less than -115. I bought -118 and line closed -115; loser. And I bought it like 15 mins before first pitch, too. Once I saw the closing line I knew I was screwed.

 
facook said:
I also forgot to handicap how the coach wears his hat.
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@Riderfan44 Imo a coach should be a leader who leads by example. When a coach wears a hat sideways like Devone Claybrooks does players lose respect for him and that is what I think is BC’s problem. Dress better,earn respect and players will go to battle for you.

@sportsgeek22 The BCLions are more sideways than DeVone Claybrooks hat

@sportsgeek22 Almost every time they show DeVone  Claybrooks, it looks like he has no idea what he’s doing lol

@cruttle5 Does DeVone Claybrooks survive the season as Head Coach of the B.C. Lions? Their club is atrocious. Their record is embarrassing. His hat isn’t sitting right!

@fauxchrisjones This is obviously not a Wally Buono Lions coached team. DeVone Claybrooks looks like he might be auditioning for LastChanceU.

@ryno306 Maybe if DeVone Claybrooks wore his hat straight, his teams record wouldn't be so crooked either

@SwiftNinjaCow I'm not saying that he won't eventually be fine. But right now, I'm kinda wondering if Devone Claybrooks should have gone to assistant coach before HC.
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:P

 
Braves have scored 64 runs in the F5 innings of day games this season. Only team with fewer runs in that spot is the Marlins with 38. Orioles have scored 75 runs in the F5 innings of day games (avg 2±2).

Angels -1½ -125
Orioles/Angels F5 u6 -135

 
Mariners 1st 5 Innings Over 4½ -110
Athletics 1st 5 Innings Under 5½ -120

straight and both those par'd with Red Sox ML..

 
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