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Can Andrew Luck be trusted in the playoffs vs Minnesota? (1 Viewer)

S

Saboo

Footballguy
I’ve done fairy well with Andrew Luck all season. While his results haven’t been spectacular, most weeks he’s been more than solid and is a top five qb in our league...That said I have no faith in Luck this week against Minnesota.

Minnesota can cover well. When you combine that with the fact that, that the Colts O line isn’t very good, I am having visions of Luck have a line that looks something like 200 yards passing 1td and 2 int’s while being under constant pressure in Minnesota all day. To make matters worse both Donte Moncrief and Philip Dorsett are banged up and their status is uncertain....I don’t think I can let my entire season ride on a matchup on the road against one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Am I wrong to think this way? Is a mediocre guy like Andy Dalton a better option? Does anyone out there have more faith in Luck than I do in week 15?

 
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As a Vikes fan - no. This D is tough on QBs. 200 yds/game. Sub-60 QB rating. Only Denver and maybe AZ are better. 

 
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I dont think anyone should trust Luck, ever. He has a huge ceiling, but he can hurt you a bunch too when you least expect it.

 
My option is Big Ben on the road.  Those two have looked like such a great 1-2 punch until this week.... :sadbanana:

 
Thanks for making this thread, I have been going back and forth all week.  My other option is Dak, but the TB D has been on fire lately.

I have no confidence in Luck either.... but he looked great against a tough Jets D line a few weeks ago....not sure what to do.

 
As always it depends on your other options. The Vikings defense has been putting a lot of pressure on QBs recently and coverage has been great all season. You have a better chance of getting a big run play against the Vikings defense than big plays from the passing game.

I dunno if Dalton is a good enough option to bench Luck for him, but I definitely think you should be looking at all other possible options before making your decision.

 
Tend to agree, it's a tough road matchup. But as always, it depends on your options.

In general, Vikes D has been good more than not, and have come strong recently against the Cowboys, and they beat the Jags, but the Jags moved the ball easily on them in the first half on 3 drives that went for scores, and Marquise Lee made defenders look like gelatinous blobs.

This is a game the Colts need to win too, and the Vikes are much harder on opposing team's run games than their pass attack. This may force Luck in the air early and often, and he's got some weapons to work with. Can see this game necessitating a lot of attempts and the need to pick up yards downfield.

I think he's a better option than all the QBs listed here -- Big Ben, Smith, Dalton, and even Bradford too. 

No dog in this fight, just my :2cents:

 
It’s true that he has "some weapons” but it appears that several of them will be banged u this weekend...Such a touch call against that swarming defense.

 
I'm waffling back-and-forth on Luck too.  It's either him or Brees.  Both have been fantastic for me but both have tough matchups this weekend.

I'll probably change my mind 47 times before finally sticking with the wrong choice.

 
Just don't have a good vibe starting Luck.  Flacco and Prescott are sitting on my wire.  Probably gonna pick up one of them - don't know yet which one. 

 
ahartig said:
I have no confidence in Luck either.... but he looked great against a tough Jets D line a few weeks ago....not sure what to do.
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Jets have quit, and before they quit, they were not a tough D.

 
Probable will go with Flacco...with Moncrief probably out, I don't see a big game by Luck

The most yards allowed by opposing QB has been 261...wow

...and 230 or under passing yards against 9 times, including last 4 games

 
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With Moncrief probably out and their best lineman now on IR, I'm sitting him this week.

My only choice is between Winston an Kaepernick, and Kaepernick has outscored Winston 4 of the past 5 weeks.  Given that Kaepernick is in Atlanta in a game that figures to have lots of scoring and possibly garbage time, I'm heavily leaning towards taking a chance on Kaepernick.  Winston seems pretty safe to be solid, but he's less likely to have the kind of big week that's needed in the playoffs.

If I win, Luck will be back in my lineup against Oakland in week 16.

 
I don't particularly trust Luck this week (although I also have Rivers, so easy choice).  It depends on your other options.  I don't trust Dalton either, so I would probably stick with Luck.  Cousins put up 262 yards and 2 TDs against Min in Week 10, so you can hope Luck duplicates that.  If hitting the waiver wire is an option, I would strongly consider my choices, but Luck's floor may be enough to keep him in over most waiver wire options.

 
Steelers4Life said:
With Moncrief probably out and their best lineman now on IR, I'm sitting him this week.

My only choice is between Winston an Kaepernick, and Kaepernick has outscored Winston 4 of the past 5 weeks.  Given that Kaepernick is in Atlanta in a game that figures to have lots of scoring and possibly garbage time, I'm heavily leaning towards taking a chance on Kaepernick.  Winston seems pretty safe to be solid, but he's less likely to have the kind of big week that's needed in the playoffs.

If I win, Luck will be back in my lineup against Oakland in week 16.
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Yikes.  Last week, Kaep put up 133 yards and 1 TD against the same Jets D Luck torched for 278 and 4 TDs a week earlier.  Kaep would be nowhere near my playoff lineup.  That is the kind of fantasy move that could land you on suicide watch!

 
I'm leaning toward starting Luck... not with confidence, but starting nonetheless. 

My other options are Mariota @ KC or Flacco (on the ww vs PHI)

 
Marriota and Alex Smith are my two choices if I sit luck. Moncrief ruled out. Does this hurt Hitlon more? I can actually sub in Watkins for Hilton....

 
Learning that three rookies will be starting is making consider subbing Tyrod Taylor for Luck in my lineup, but don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Mike ChappellVerified account ‏@mchappell51 15m15 minutes ago

With Reitz/Good out, expecting Colts O-line to be:

LT Castonzo

LG Harrison

C Kelly (R)

RG Haeg (R)

RT Clark (R with 6 off. snaps this year)
 
heckmanm said:
My other options are Moore and Barkley :X
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No way I am trusting Moore or Barkley over Luck.  I actually think Barkley has looked pretty good, and he gets Alshon back this week, but I am not hitching my playoff wagon to either of these guys.

 
squistion said:
Learning that three rookies will be starting is making consider subbing Tyrod Taylor for Luck in my lineup, but don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Mike ChappellVerified account ‏@mchappell51 15m15 minutes ago

With Reitz/Good out, expecting Colts O-line to be:

LT Castonzo

LG Harrison

C Kelly (R)

RG Haeg (R)

RT Clark (R with 6 off. snaps this year)
Click to expand...
Geesh.  Big Ben don't fail me now.

 
socrates said:
No way I am trusting Moore or Barkley over Luck.  I actually think Barkley has looked pretty good, and he gets Alshon back this week, but I am not hitching my playoff wagon to either of these guys.
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Yeah.  12-team superflex so most teams are starting 2QBs and I got caught short midseason when ASmith got concussed.  Been scrambling ever since.

 
squistion said:
Learning that three rookies will be starting is making consider subbing Tyrod Taylor for Luck in my lineup, but don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Mike ChappellVerified account ‏@mchappell51 15m15 minutes ago

With Reitz/Good out, expecting Colts O-line to be:

LT Castonzo

LG Harrison

C Kelly (R)

RG Haeg (R)

RT Clark (R with 6 off. snaps this year)
Click to expand...
If I wasn't excited to see my opponent starting Luck while I have the Minn Def before this news, I'm extremely giddy now!   :P :lmao: :excited:

 
socrates said:
Yikes.  Last week, Kaep put up 133 yards and 1 TD against the same Jets D Luck torched for 278 and 4 TDs a week earlier.  Kaep would be nowhere near my playoff lineup.  That is the kind of fantasy move that could land you on suicide watch!
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Yep, it's possible.  It's a gamble to be sure.  But this week Luck faces an amazing defensive front without one of his top two WRs and now without THREE of his offensive linemen.  I don't think he's going to have much of a chance to be successful moving the ball in Minnesota and he'll be relegated to throwing short passes and hoping to limit the mistakes.  If Kaep throws for 200 yards, runs for 50, and accounts for 2 total TDs, I think that'll be better than what Luck does. 

Kaepernick was awful in the bad weather two weeks ago and struggled last week, but he scored well each of the 3 or 4 weeks before that and I like his chances to put up a nice fantasy day playing catch up in Atlanta more than Luck's chances of success in Minnesota.  I'm wavering on Winston.  I think Winston has a higher floor but a lower ceiling because of the way both teams play on offense.

 
As a Colts :homer:  I can tell you the sense around the city is that the Colts have mailed it in. They IR's several players they were holding out on in case of a playoff run and now all of these guys are out instead of questionable. Luck is a gamer, but I see no way I can start him this week. I'm forecasting a 250/1 type of day. I think there are a lot better options for upside.

I think you have to play TY due to volume. I also like Doyle as the red zone target. Dorsett is a dud.

 
squistion said:
Learning that three rookies will be starting is making consider subbing Tyrod Taylor for Luck in my lineup, but don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Mike ChappellVerified account ‏@mchappell51 15m15 minutes ago

With Reitz/Good out, expecting Colts O-line to be:

LT Castonzo

LG Harrison

C Kelly (R)

RG Haeg (R)

RT Clark (R with 6 off. snaps this year)
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This plus Moncrief OUT and Dorset banged up has made my decision for me.  Dak at home all the way.  

 
theothervcruz said:
Anyone starting Dak at home versus Tampa Bay over Luck?
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I am, I had my doubts but the o line problems, plus no Moncrief, plus Dallas at home and in primetime has me going with Dak

 
I don't know what I'm basing this on other than perhaps desperation - both for my fantasy team and perhaps for the Colts themselves - but I think Luck is going to produce very good fantasy stats against MIN. 

Harrison Smith may play with his grade-3 high ankle sprain.  I think that says something about what the Vikings see in their opponent. 

I don't think the Colts will be able to run.  At all.  Luck may throw 45+ times if his patchwork OL can keep him upright.

He may throw 2 picks, but I'm envisioning 300 passing yards and 2-3 scores.  It will be hell getting there but if the OL can give him some time I think Luck can do some damage here.

So maybe just flinging poo against the wall and hoping it sticks, but there's enough clues out there at least for me... to feel somewhat encouraged.  

Only other options would be Alex Smith (high floor, low upside), Flacco, Barkley, junk... thinking the difference between Luck's floor and a guy like Smith or Flacco's ceiling is worth rolling the dice on.  

Go Luck.   :shrug:  

 
I'm also questioning starting Luck. What about Rivers this week? I've got Luck still staying but I really can't decide. 

 
nirad3 said:
Yeah if I had Rivers it wouldn't be close.  But over low-upside guys like Flacco and Smith I'm gambling.
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I hear you. My only other QB is Petty (16 team where my backup was Fitz). Moore is the only starter on ww, I have a feeling Moore may outscore Luck this week but I can't do it

 
theplayer11 said:
Flacco 6 tds last 2 games, 324, 381 yards passing...not sure why you call him low upside at home vs Philly
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:shrug:    11 TDs in the previous 11 games before those two.  And for another "11", Philly's given up the 11th fewest fantasy points to QBs.  

Not saying Flacco isn't startable.  He certainly is.  The floor here is 240-260 / 1-2.  Just don't think he has another 300+ 3+ type of effort in him, especially with weather slated to be a little wet and windy.

 
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