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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks.
I wasnt sure if the recovery time rules out cascade injuries or not.
Based on what you are saying they can.
When can you consider a player fully recovered and no longer a risk then?
Machines like Peterson not included.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Great question. 12 to 18 months, IMO, a player should be fully recovered. A lot of factors go into where in this range a player falls. Rehab is a big one, and unfortunately we just arent privy to those details for any player. Cook and Guice are interesting cases because they had a reasonable amount of time to recover. You look at other victims of the ACL and you can see them coming back 8, 9 months after surgery and they are often a mess. rightfully so. they arent ready from a healing standpoint, much less rehab. If a guy is fully recovered why does he need to wear some big knee cage?
My theory on Cook is that his body just wasnt ready for full speed. I think he had a muscle imbalance/ wasn't fully rehabbed. I think MIN knew this, which is why they seemed to be babying him with a split with Murray, hoping he could gain strength as the season progressed and avoid injury. I think we should consider that an isolated incident, but it's a reminder that we should give these types of injuries serious consideration when planning for the next season.
I expect Cook to have a monster bounce back season
Interseptopus
Footballguy
according to the fbg february chart
Guice + JuJu = pretty close to Gurley
or
Guice + Chubb +Cohen = Gurley
They also never account for the roster spots not represented in the trade. Dealing Gurley for 3 players whose "total value" is comparable requires cutting two more players.
If you have a total rebuild with almost nothing worth owning outside of Gurley, then fine. But most dynasty teams don't have wasteable roster spots, so taking the downgrade also requires cutting two more players you like. Those guys' value should be added to the trade too, but I've yet to see a trade calculator that expressly adds "replacement value player" value to the side creating space...
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Exactly...I would gladly pay all of the running backs 25-30 (combined those backs have more value than Gurley) for Gurley. Problem is it is a terrible offer for the Gurley owner. But look at the value chart they said!
Elevencents
Footballguy
I just keep coming back to - if ADP could put up 1000 yards there’s no reason Guice can’t. But I agree, the one thing tempering expectations is the offense as a whole otherwise I’d be super excited for next year.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree. I was surprised to see those numbers add up to equal Gurley. I would gladly take that trade if I were a Gurley owner
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yes, that is very possible. It'll be interesting to see what Washington does at QB this offseason, especially since they are paying Smith so much
We've seen RBs in the past be very good with little at the QB position, or offense in general. I think there will be tough times for Guice, but he should make up for it in the passing game for those in PPR leagues. I recall them raving about his pass catching last camp
Jordan Reed is still a solid TE, Alex Smith just didn't throw to him much for whatever reason. Once Smith went down, Reed looked great again for a couple weeks with McCoy.
Personally, I'm terrified about Guice's knee injury more than anything else, it sounded way worse then a typical knee injury, and the list of guys who missed their rookie year due to injury is pretty rough. Willis McGahee is pretty much the only guy who really had a solid career in recent history.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm curious why you seem to view a season ending injury worse in a players rookie season than any of the following:
In college?
Year 2?
Any year?
Maybe its the most crucial year for learning NFL speeds? Maybe it creates unrealistic expectations in that people think the player will bounce back instantly to what they were thought of as being coming out of college? I don't really know why its worse, its just supported by history as worse.
Its also possible, that some of the guys who got hurt as rookies, were gonna bust anyway, and the injury just bought them time, before it was discovered. I mean, if Ronald Jones had say, broken his ankle in training camp, would we think more of him now as a prospect than we do now?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I dont think the game instantly slows after year one. For years there was a 3rd year WR rule. That's just one example.
I'd be much more worried about Leonard Fournette and his bad ankle, or Sony Michel and his "bone on bone" knee... a condition that doesnt happen often in men twice his age... than Guice who tore his ACL, had it fixed, and is rehabbing on schedule.
I was just throwing out a possibility, I don't have an answer as to why missing the rookie year is a killer, but it almost universally is.
I'm super worried about Fournette, and his ankle is maybe the 3rd biggest reason. He's got attitude, and production issues.
I wouldn't hesitate to take Michel over Guice. That was close to 50-50 to me before Guice got hurt, and Michel proved himself on the NFL stage.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW i read some research about NCAA football players who have serious injuries such as ACL in college. This was in context of Marshawn Lattimores injury at the time.
The full recovery rate for players at this age is much higher than it is for players past say 26 years old.
There was still a percentage of players who never fully recovered from their injuries, but the younger the player, the better their chances that they will.
I also did some research about RB careers and on average the rookie season is the lowest scoring season of a RB first six seasons. So I don't think missing the rookie year is a big deal.
I think we are taking about different things. I agree that mostly its better to get hurt in college, or when you are under 26. Just not your rookie year for whatever reason.
As to the bolded, I agree that guys don't peak as rookies, but that isn't the point I was ever making.
In theory, I don't disagree with your logic, I don't have an opinion on this, I'm just stating historical precedent, that if Guice ends up having a solid career, he'll join Willis McGahee as basically the only guy to do so after missing his entire rookie season due to injury. Maybe its cherry picking a little, or small sample size(not like there are 20 rookies going on IR before week 1 every year) but history is not on Guice's side is all I'm saying.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yes while there are plenty of RB who do not do well in their rookie season most of them did not miss the entire season like Guice and McGahee.
Garrison Hearst was injured for the most part his first two seasons, but he did have a few carries as a rookie, didn't miss the whole year.
I think you've hit on why this doesn't matter. How many highly touted RBs have suffered season ending injuries before week 1? And if we narrow it down to non-contact injuries, Guice is probably in a sample size of one. The difference between Guice and Dalvin Cook is just a matter of weeks.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
huh? how can you conclude this? just because mcgahee was the only other one?
If you're going to say the above, you need to say how many rookie RBs drafted in the first 2 rounds missed their rookie year due to injury and did NOT come back well.
As far as I can tell, history IS on Guices side
Elevencents
Footballguy
I don’t think we can really look at past incidents to extrapolate how Guice is gonna fair. Everyone is different - different body composition, different training intensity, different “supplements” used, etc. Only time will tell how he will fare but I think how he looks when he is back to full speed will be a good indicator of what we can expect. I am keeping him from last year and hoping for big things but also tempering my expectations, but not because of his injury.
Birdie048
Footballguy
You can add the medical advancements made year in & year out plus the additional "physical therapy" developments to improve a players full recovery potential.
The ACL surgery has changed significantly over the past 5 years....so using any older data is not a justifiable comparison.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
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Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
In the best-ball WSL redrafts happening over in FBG's Mock Drafts forum, Guice just went 58th (RB24) and 54th (RB23) overall.
I don't expect those prices to persist into the summer, but if they do I'll own Guice on 100% of my teams.
I don't expect those prices to persist into the summer, but if they do I'll own Guice on 100% of my teams.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Can we really say that he's rehabbing on schedule, though? He had three additional surgeries which pushed the schedule back. I think it's fair to say that he's on schedule to be available in Training Camp, but he's definitely not on his initial recovery schedule.
Gandalf
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I dont think it is....the format dictates low risk approach and the overall numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt as its a tight end premium......the guy tore his acl and had infection issues and more surgeries....that does t bode well for the kid...
I sure hope Peter King has bad info because this concerns me whether they get Bell or not, if they are even interested it's an issue. Below is article from his weekly column.
• Le’Veon to the Jets? New York, with $116 million in cap room and the motivation to spend with a GM who has to win this year, is the favorite to sign Bell. I can’t see Bell to the Colts except at a discount, and Bell will be motivated to make up what he lost last year (which he’ll never do). Smart football people think the Jets are the leaders in the Bell derby, with Washington and Miami possible too.
• Le’Veon to the Jets? New York, with $116 million in cap room and the motivation to spend with a GM who has to win this year, is the favorite to sign Bell. I can’t see Bell to the Colts except at a discount, and Bell will be motivated to make up what he lost last year (which he’ll never do). Smart football people think the Jets are the leaders in the Bell derby, with Washington and Miami possible too.
tkrull
Footballguy
Agree it's hard to see either splurging in FA on a RB. I'm more worried if Washington was interested in signing a RB and getting a cheaper one then Bell and what that mean with respect to where they think Guice is on his recovery but I'm starting to think Peter King is just not that plugged in right now.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Washington is not signing Peterson at this time which I think is a positive sign for how they feel about Guices recovery.
Peterson proved last season that he still has something in the tank, I'm not sure the Redskins are willing or able to pay what he will garner on the open market, especially considering they are perpetually in salary cap hell.
Washington is bottom 5 in terms of cap space and while teams are always figuring out ways to make more space, if there were moves to be made to free up more you would think they would have already made them with FA starting. Can't see them spending on any RB's.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
They don't need to spend money on any RB. Guice is going to be a monster and a healthy Thompson is a great backfield.
But if they are in cap hell, why did they pay that much for Landon? I guess so they can take S off their draft list. Now go get 2 WRs, a TE, line help, new coach, new GM, and new owner. CHAMPIONSHP!!!
But if they are in cap hell, why did they pay that much for Landon? I guess so they can take S off their draft list. Now go get 2 WRs, a TE, line help, new coach, new GM, and new owner. CHAMPIONSHP!!!
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Team won't be any good until they stop relying on chronicly injured players to be healthy. Every single season, same thing.ffmail4me said:
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Looking at the qbs and wrs they have, he better be healthy.Biabreakable said:
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
What does it say now about his recovery? I'm very disappointed they resigned Peterson.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm disappointed too but I am hoping it's an insurance depth move. they initially did not resign him, and its possible that AP wanted to start, saw the market wasnt there, so he came back to his best opportunity. it's very possible Guice out plays him and AP is a backup. I dont blame Washington for trying to get an insurance policy, which I admit is my hopeful interpretation of this signing
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Cheap depth/insurance. Guice could very possibly require a long-ish ramp up period based on his recovery process and this just gives them another body to put out there if they need to. $4M is Theo Riddick/James White money, it's less than Gio Bernard and Duke Johnson money. It's just the cost of having a veteran RB on your roster.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
The short term (redraft, keeper) view is that the Peterson signing is a concern. Maybe it indicates Guice needs more time for this season. The long term (dynasty) view is that the Peterson signing means Guice is likely to be fine even it it takes a bit of time to get up to speed in 2019. I am always far more concerned when a team adds a young player as competition. The best example here is Coleman signing with SF. That's a much bigger red flag for McKinnon/Breida than AP is for Guice/Thompson.
Is it really $8M/2yr? This is showing much less: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/adrian-peterson-4753/
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
Sebowski
Footballguy
Some on Twitter asked Guice how the AP signing helps him and he replied:
"He can help me with fundamentals before the snap on how he reads the defense, his blocking, how he breaks down film, how he studies film, when he workout what does he consistently do, his meal plan, and the recovery from ACL"
Then he tweeted out his PS4 name to challenge people to NBA2K
. I love this dude.
"He can help me with fundamentals before the snap on how he reads the defense, his blocking, how he breaks down film, how he studies film, when he workout what does he consistently do, his meal plan, and the recovery from ACL"
Then he tweeted out his PS4 name to challenge people to NBA2K
. I love this dude. 
