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Dynasty Kareem Hunt Cleveland Browns

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18 minutes ago, daveR said:

Having seen him up close for this past (half) season, I am VERY impressed.  If you asked me to choose one, him or Chubb, I honestly don't know which I'd take.  He does it all -- with strength.  IMO, he is a top 10 talent.

You and I are watching the same player! 

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2 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

Who are the ten guys you would take over him and where would you rank him?  As for the KC RB situation, they desperately missed him this season. 

I responded to some one else with a list. I will concede that I wouldn’t argue with anyone that had him in the back half of the Top 10, but I still don’t see a team giving up a second day pick for the right to pay him, especially when guys like Henry and Gordon could be had for just the money and with a draft class that universally considered deep and talented at RB. I’ve been wrong many times though.

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Posted (edited)

Why would a team pay 5 mil and a 2nd for Hunt when they can likely draft one of Tayalor, Dobbins, ETN round 2 and pay them 25% of that (estimated)? 

 

Unless it's a team picking near the end of round 2, I'm not sure I see that happening. Of the teams mentioned above, SF maybe makes sense but they have so much money tied up at rb it really doesnt make sense. 

 

IMO he is a Brown next year unless he is traded

Edited by Dr. Dan
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15 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The second round tender is $3MM(?) so that would be the starting point. I guess maybe “big money” was a bit hyperbolic but I still just don’t think giving away a value pick for the right to sign a RB at $4/5MM per season is wise.

I don't think it is either, but 2020 Hunt is an upgrade to whatever is available at some point in the 2nd round of the draft (yes I realize how loaded this class is). And while I get there is more to it than just that many GM's have shown in the past they will use that as justification anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Why would a team pay 5 mil and a 2nd for Hunt when they can likely draft one of Tayalor, Dobbins, ETN round 2 and pay them 10% of that? 

 

Unless it's a team picking near the end of round 2, I'm not sure I see that happening. Of the teams mentioned above, SF maybe makes sense but they have so much money tied up at rb it really doesnt make sense. 

 

IMO he is a Brown next year unless he is traded

I think most, if not all, of the top tier of backs go round 1. 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Unless it's a team picking near the end of round 2, I'm not sure I see that happening. Of the teams mentioned above, SF maybe makes sense but they have so much money tied up at rb it really doesnt make sense.

Hunt would surely be the most talented back on their roster but like you said they’ve already heavily invested at RB and were fine with Coleman, Mostert and Breida (and they get McKinnon back theoretically). They are the top seed in a stacked NFC afterall.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I think most, if not all, of the top tier of backs go round 1. 

I disagree very much here... 

1. the RB class is deep with good talent, so a team doesnt have to spend a 1st

2. (Most) teams in needs of a RB are picking in the upper 50% of the draft, or dont have a 1st (Houston). I dont see these guys going that high. 

I can see MIA, KC and BAL taking a RB round 1, but that's about it.

MIA, TB, NYJ (if they can trade Bell), KC (?), HOU, BAL (?), IND (?), ARI (?), DET (?), ATL (?) are about all I see with RB needs. The ones with questionmarks have someone and dont have a exact RB need. NYJ have way more needs than RB and they would have to get someone to trade for Bell. 

Miami might take a RB round 1, largely because they have many picks and have a serious need. 

 

Even in the unlikely scenario Swift, ETN, Dobbins, Taylor are all gone round 1, You still have some talent in Akers, Moss, Hubbard. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Hunt would surely be the most talented back on their roster but like you said they’ve already heavily invested at RB and were fine with Coleman, Mostert and Breida (and they get McKinnon back theoretically). They are the top seed in a stacked NFC afterall.

Actually... now that I look at their 2020 cap, they really dont have a lot tied up at rb. 

They have McKinnon with 4 mil in dead money (they would save 4.5 mil cutting him), Coleman has $0 dead money, and Mostert has 600k in dead money. 

They are actually in really good shape. Could cut McKinnon and draft a RB at the end of the 1st... I suppose SF would be a realistic landing spot for Hunt they were in the market for a RB and didnt want to draft one in the 1st 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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47 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I think most, if not all, of the top tier of backs go round 1. 

I think it's far more likely that zero RBs go in round 1.  I don't expect any RBs this year to be round 1 types.  None of them are that good, frankly, but I guess a team might still take one of them in the late first.  Josh Jacobs wasn't a round 1 type either, but a stupid team drafted him there. 

I think we see 4 or 5 first round WRs and 4 or 5 second round RBs mixed in with another 4 or 5 2nd round WRs. It's going to be a crazy offseason. 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Why would a team pay 5 mil and a 2nd for Hunt when they can likely draft one of Tayalor, Dobbins, ETN round 2 and pay them 25% of that (estimated)? 

 

Unless it's a team picking near the end of round 2, I'm not sure I see that happening. Of the teams mentioned above, SF maybe makes sense but they have so much money tied up at rb it really doesnt make sense. 

 

IMO he is a Brown next year unless he is traded

Well, they'd be giving up a round 2 pick either way in your scenario, why not pay 5 Mill or even a bit more for a player of Hunt's caliber. There's no guarantee at all that a round 2 pick will pan out. Look at Rashard Penny drafted in round 1, Sony Michel who's decent I guess, and those are round 1 guys. And countless others.

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1 minute ago, Tool said:

Well, they'd be giving up a round 2 pick either way in your scenario, why not pay 5 Mill or even a bit more for a player of Hunt's caliber. There's no guarantee at all that a round 2 pick will pan out. Look at Rashard Penny drafted in round 1, Sony Michel who's decent I guess, and those are round 1 guys. And countless others.

Naming 1st and 2nd round busts and me countering with 2nd and 3rd round stars is a rabbit hole I think both of us would rather not go down. 

I admit 5 mil is not that bad for a rb of Hunt's caliber, but in many cases 1 year 4-5 mil and a 2nd is a bad business move. 

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I disagree very much here... 

1. the RB class is deep with good talent, so a team doesnt have to spend a 1st

2. (Most) teams in needs of a RB are picking in the upper 50% of the draft, or dont have a 1st (Houston). I dont see these guys going that high. 

I can see MIA, KC and BAL taking a RB round 1, but that's about it.

MIA, TB, NYJ (if they can trade Bell), KC (?), HOU, BAL (?), IND (?), ARI (?), DET (?), ATL (?) are about all I see with RB needs. The ones with questionmarks have someone and dont have a exact RB need. NYJ have way more needs than RB and they would have to get someone to trade for Bell. 

Miami might take a RB round 1, largely because they have many picks and have a serious need. 

 

Even in the unlikely scenario Swift, ETN, Dobbins, Taylor are all gone round 1, You still have some talent in Akers, Moss, Hubbard. 

Can’t see BAL taking a RB in the first 2, probably 3 rounds unless outstanding value drops. 
 

They have Ingram at least on roster next year at peak performance. Edwards looks very good and Hill has shown big time flashes and he and Edwards would make a formidable backfield, especially in this system. IF there’s a need on offense, it’s to replace Yanda (hopefully we get another year but even so) or a big bodied wideout if they aren’t sold on Boykins. 
 

That said, I see them going defense to balance some of the contracts they’ve had to invest in on that side of the ball. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Naming 1st and 2nd round busts and me countering with 2nd and 3rd round stars is a rabbit hole I think both of us would rather not go down. 

I admit 5 mil is not that bad for a rb of Hunt's caliber, but in many cases 1 year 4-5 mil and a 2nd is a bad business move. 

Hunt is a unique talent. Could argue top 5 talent as demonstrated pre suspension, especially on a team that utilizes backs in the receiving game. 
 

For teams one RB away, especially those with closing windows (I’m looking at you, NE), so long as it’s a short term commitment of a year or two, Hunt brings a lot of value.  Been plenty of busts in the draft or just guys who did ok but not great. Will you get Saquan/Zeke, or will you get Blair Thomas/Ron Dayne?  
 

With Hunt, you KNOW you are getting a top tier NFL producer, not just a college talent that you project is at least close to that.

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2 minutes ago, Koya said:

Can’t see BAL taking a RB in the first 2, probably 3 rounds unless outstanding value drops. 
 

They have Ingram at least on roster next year at peak performance. Edwards looks very good and Hill has shown big time flashes and he and Edwards would make a formidable backfield, especially in this system. IF there’s a need on offense, it’s to replace Yanda (hopefully we get another year but even so) or a big bodied wideout if they aren’t sold on Boykins. 
 

That said, I see them going defense to balance some of the contracts they’ve had to invest in on that side of the ball. 

I agree but have read otherwise.

 

Hill doesnt profile as a 3 down back, Edward's is a great backup. This class is great. 2021 not as good... but who knows. We will see in several months. 

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Posted (edited)

Yes, there is something to be said about Hunt proven he can play in the nfl vs a rookie whom has zero experience. 

This is a 1 year deal for a proven back vs a 4 year, cheaper deal for a rb who could hit... not many teams would take the 1 year deal 

All I'm saying is that Hunt being signed is not as much if a  "lock" as some in here would say... Its going to take a very specific scenario/team. IMO Lions, Bucs, Dolphins, Steelers, Jags shouldnt even be in the conversation 

Lions- 40 some mil in space, they need a 2nd more than a 1 year deal for a RB

Bucs- Maybe but their 2nd is 14... that's a pretty good player. are they a rb away from contending? I personally dont think so

Dolphins- This makes zero sense

Steelers- They dont have a 1st and wouldnt have a 2nd either. In a very good draft. They probably want a QB there more than going for a 1 year rb 

Jags- I see this making about as much sense as Detroit.  

A 2nd and 1 year 5 mil is an investment a very small number of teams should even entertain. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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a short list of teams I think should entertain sign Hunt... teams that are set to win now and are picking near the bottom of round 2: 

SF- After seeing their salary cap I actually think this makes too much sense. They can cut McKinnon, save 4.5 mil and give it to Hunt... That's a major upgrade. 

HOU- They actually have cap space to sign Hunt then work out a long term deal. 

KC- Wouldnt happen but they do make sense

 

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18 minutes ago, Koya said:

Hunt is a unique talent. Could argue top 5 talent as demonstrated pre suspension, especially on a team that utilizes backs in the receiving game. 
 

For teams one RB away, especially those with closing windows (I’m looking at you, NE), so long as it’s a short term commitment of a year or two, Hunt brings a lot of value.  Been plenty of busts in the draft or just guys who did ok but not great. Will you get Saquan/Zeke, or will you get Blair Thomas/Ron Dayne?  
 

With Hunt, you KNOW you are getting a top tier NFL producer, not just a college talent that you project is at least close to that.

My sentiments, exactly!

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes, there is something to be said about Hunt proven he can play in the nfl vs a rookie whom has zero experience. 

This is a 1 year deal for a proven back vs a 4 year, cheaper deal for a rb who could hit... not many teams would take the 1 year deal 

All I'm saying is that Hunt being signed is not as much if a  "lock" as some in here would say... Its going to take a very specific scenario/team. IMO Lions, Bucs, Dolphins, Steelers, Jags shouldnt even be in the conversation 

Lions- 40 some mil in space, they need a 2nd more than a 1 year deal for a RB

Bucs- Maybe but their 2nd is 14... that's a pretty good player. are they a rb away from contending? I personally dont think so

Dolphins- This makes zero sense

Steelers- They dont have a 1st and wouldnt have a 2nd either. In a very good draft. They probably want a QB there more than going for a 1 year rb 

Jags- I see this making about as much sense as Detroit.  

A 2nd and 1 year 5 mil is an investment a very small number of teams should even entertain. 

You keep mentioning the 1 year deal thing.  I don't think that's the case.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but the only 1 year restriction is on the Browns, as to what they tender him at.  Then a team could offer him any deal.  The Browns can then match or let him walk and get the pick back.

IE Browns tender Hunt with a 2nd round tender at $2.9mil.

Texans offer Hunt a 4 year, $15 million contract.

Browns have option to either match that deal and sign Hunt at 4 years, $15 million, or they can decline and take the 2nd round pick from the Texans.  The Texans would then get Hunt for 4 years, $15 million.

 

The 1 year, $2.9 mil only becomes a factor if no other team offers Hunt a contract after they place that tender on him.  Then the Browns get him for 1 year, $2.9mil.

 

If the Browns tender him at a 2nd/3rd round pick I think it's a toss-up.  If a team can get a top 10 RB for 4 years $15 million it may be worth the security to give up that pick for him, especially given that he is a known asset in the passing game whereas some of the rookies have real question marks there.  The real wildcard here is if the Browns decide they really want to keep Hunt for another year and tender him at a 1st.  It's unlikely but that would basically guarantee they get him at 1 year $4.1 million as no other team is going to make an offer on him if they'd have to give up a 1st.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

You keep mentioning the 1 year deal thing.  I don't think that's the case.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but the only 1 year restriction is on the Browns, as to what they tender him at.  Then a team could offer him any deal.  The Browns can then match, or let him walk and get the pick back.

IE Browns tender Hunt with a 2nd round tender at $2.9mil.

Texans offer Hunt a 4 year, $15 million contract.

Browns have option to either match that deal and sign Hunt at 4 years, $15 million, or they can decline and take the 2nd round pick from the Texans.

 

The 1 year, $2.9 mil only becomes a factor if no other team offers Hunt a contract after they place that tender on him.  Then the Browns get him for 1 year, $2.9mil.

 

If the Browns tender him at a 2nd/3rd round pick I think it's a toss-up.  If a team can get a top 10 RB for 4 years $15 million it may be worth the security to give up that pick for him, especially given that he is a known asset in the passing game whereas some of the rookies have real question marks there.  The real wildcard here is if the Browns decide they really want to keep Hunt for another year and tender him at a 1st.  It's unlikely but that would basically guarantee they get him at 1 year $4.1 million as no other team is going to make an offer on him if they'd have to give up a 1st.

I must be incorrect here becuae this makes a lot of sense 

 

I still stand by my list above that there arent many teams that pick in the upper half of the 2nd for which signing Hunt would make sense. 

I think I would move TB into the yes category with understanding the situation accurately 

Jacksonville if Fournette is not resigned would make sense too 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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47 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

 Josh Jacobs wasn't a round 1 type either, but a stupid team drafted him there.

He might win rookie of the year.

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45 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I think it's far more likely that zero RBs go in round 1.  I don't expect any RBs this year to be round 1 types.  None of them are that good, frankly, but I guess a team might still take one of them in the late first.  Josh Jacobs wasn't a round 1 type either, but a stupid team drafted him there. 

I think we see 4 or 5 first round WRs and 4 or 5 second round RBs mixed in with another 4 or 5 2nd round WRs. It's going to be a crazy offseason. 

 

 

I think the top end of this rb class is better than you do. I don't factor in at all what teams are picking where right now. Just because they are there now does not mean they will be there in April. Each NFL team grades differently than another, but generally speaking it starts elite-round 1-round 2. Most years teams do not have 32 players graded round 1 or higher. I think some of these guys will and those that don't will be graded round 2. Math says those guys may be drafted round 1, like Jacobs last year. And those that don't will go early round 2.

So for most teams I dont think you're evaluating Hunt vs the top 4 or so. You're assessing him vs the next group. 

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

  The real wildcard here is if the Browns decide they really want to keep Hunt for another year and tender him at a 1st.  It's unlikely but that would basically guarantee they get him at 1 year $4.1 million as no other team is going to make an offer on him if they'd have to give up a 1st.

I don't think that is unlikely.  $4.1M on a one year deal for Hunt is good business.  My guess is they would put a first round tender on him before say they put a third round tender on him. 

I'm invested in Hunt, want him to exit but I'm less sure of it then others seem to be. Saying all that I'm not ruling out that it's possible Hunt had a verbal agreement with the Browns when he chose to sign with them that they would not tender him this year but in absence of that I would expect a first or second round tender.  Difficult for me to see a lot of teams want to sign Hunt to a long term deal AND give up a first or second.

Again in the absence of a verbal agreement between Hunt and the Browns about not tendering him I don't think he exits Cleveland this off-season unless it's by trade.  Hope I'm wrong.

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4 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Yeah, Hunt has no risk lol

not even behavioral?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

not even behavioral?

Yes I was saying that sarcastically. I would not pay him and lose a 2nd round pick if I were a team in the rb market. 

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3 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Yes I was saying that sarcastically. I would not pay him and lose a 2nd round pick if I were a team in the rb market. 

I think Menobrown is correct, he ends up back in Cleveland next year. And why not? They have a very good team on paper. A good coach away from being pretty darn good. 

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30 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I think the top end of this rb class is better than you do. I don't factor in at all what teams are picking where right now. Just because they are there now does not mean they will be there in April. Each NFL team grades differently than another, but generally speaking it starts elite-round 1-round 2. Most years teams do not have 32 players graded round 1 or higher. I think some of these guys will and those that don't will be graded round 2. Math says those guys may be drafted round 1, like Jacobs last year. And those that don't will go early round 2.

So for most teams I dont think you're evaluating Hunt vs the top 4 or so. You're assessing him vs the next group. 

Hmm, good point there with the relative strength of RB compared to other positions.  I still think there will be at most 1 first round RB, but that opinion could change quickly as the offseason progresses and we get more information. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

a short list of teams I think should entertain sign Hunt... teams that are set to win now and are picking near the bottom of round 2: 

SF- After seeing their salary cap I actually think this makes too much sense. They can cut McKinnon, save 4.5 mil and give it to Hunt... That's a major upgrade. 

HOU- They actually have cap space to sign Hunt then work out a long term deal. 

KC- Wouldnt happen but they do make sense

 

Does Houston have a second or a third? They traded away a ton of picks this past offseason.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't think that is unlikely.  $4.1M on a one year deal for Hunt is good business.  My guess is they would put a first round tender on him before say they put a third round tender on him.

Half the starting RB’s in the league make less than 4.1M a year, paying that to a backup/3rd down guy (even one as good as Hunt) and virtually guaranteeing no one tries to sign or trade for him doesn’t seem like very good business IMO. But who knows, lots of teams have done things that seemed much crazier to me than that.

Edited by Buckna

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Does Houston have a second or a third? They traded away a ton of picks this past offseason.

They have a 2020 2nd, no 1st or 3rd although they will likely get a 3rd comp pick for Honeybadger. Seems highly unlikely they trade for yet another RB but with BOB running the show who knows?

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Posted (edited)

So the other factor here- would Hunt sign a 4 year 20 million dollar deal? 3 year 15 mil? 

I find that a little hard to believe. If we are saying Hunt has top talent,  surely his agent also is, and will be looking for top talent pay.

He could sign a 1 or 2 year prove it deal and then look to cash in after that, but then again we are back to return on investment for anyone giving up a 1st or 2nd for him. 

The best business decision for Hunt may be to play another season in Cleveland and try to cash in for 2021 with a tepid draft class and a lot of top RBs set to be FAs- there may be a good FA market 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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12 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Half the starting RB’s in the league make less than 4.1M a year, paying that to a backup/3rd down guy (even one as good as Hunt) and virtually guaranteeing no one tries to sign or trade for him doesn’t seem like very good business IMO. But who knows, lots of teams have done things that seemed much crazier to me than that.

Seems like faulty logical process to me that you are following that fails to take into account other teams don't not have a starting RB making just $1.1M, which fails to take into consideration they could simply roster Hunt and Chubb for a grand total of just over $5.2M while also failing to factor in that Hunt is better then half the starting RB's in this league. 

 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Half the starting RB’s in the league make less than 4.1M a year, paying that to a backup/3rd down guy (even one as good as Hunt) and virtually guaranteeing no one tries to sign or trade for him doesn’t seem like very good business IMO. But who knows, lots of teams have done things that seemed much crazier to me than that.

That's because half of the starting RBs in the league are on their 1st contract. What is the average salary for starting RBs on their second contract? 

Do you think CMC, Kamara, Cook, Mixon, Fournette are going to sign for less than 4 mil a season after 2020? 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

So the other factor here- would Hunt sign a 4 year 20 million dollar deal? 3 year 15 mil? 

I find that a little hard to believe. If we are saying Hunt has top talent,  surely his agent also is, and will be looking for top talent pay.

He could sign a 1 or 2 year prove it deal and then look to cash in after that, but then again we are back to return on investment for anyone giving up a 1st or 2nd for him. 

The best business decision for Hunt may be to play another season in Cleveland and try to cash in for 2021 with a tepid draft class and a lot of top RBs set to be FAs- there may be a good FA market 

Wasting another year as a part time player would not be a good decision for Hunt if he can help it.

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2 minutes ago, Tool said:

Wasting another year as a part time player would not be a good decision for Hunt if he can help it.

I disagree, but I understand where you are coming from 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I disagree, but I understand where you are coming from 

His career is so short as is, he already missed half of last season, and was a part time player for very little money this season. You really think he wants to spend another season doing the same thing? I don't.

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5 minutes ago, Tool said:

His career is so short as is, he already missed half of last season, and was a part time player for very little money this season. You really think he wants to spend another season doing the same thing? I don't.

I would have said the same about a lot of guys. I'm not exactly sure what Hunt wants to do or not. Some guys are content being part timers, some are not. 

IMO unless a team is willing to pay him 10 million a season, he is better off waiting 1 more year. 

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

That's because half of the starting RBs in the league are on their 1st contract. What is the average salary for starting RBs on their second contract? 

Do you think CMC, Kamara, Cook, Mixon, Fournette are going to sign for less than 4 mil a season after 2020? 

Pointless, Hunt is still on his first contract too and is not their starter. I brought up the salary because he said it was good business to pay a guy they are using as CoP and receiving back 4.1M. I’d say that’s highly debatable. For instance, they could have just kept Duke Johnson for less money had they not pissed him off.

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40 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Pointless, Hunt is still on his first contract too and is not their starter. I brought up the salary because he said it was good business to pay a guy they are using as CoP and receiving back 4.1M. I’d say that’s highly debatable. For instance, they could have just kept Duke Johnson for less money had they not pissed him off.

FWIW there are 6 teams paying a #2 or CoP RB $3.6mil or more right now.  4 of them are in the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

So the other factor here- would Hunt sign a 4 year 20 million dollar deal? 3 year 15 mil? 

I find that a little hard to believe. If we are saying Hunt has top talent,  surely his agent also is, and will be looking for top talent pay.

He could sign a 1 or 2 year prove it deal and then look to cash in after that, but then again we are back to return on investment for anyone giving up a 1st or 2nd for him. 

The best business decision for Hunt may be to play another season in Cleveland and try to cash in for 2021 with a tepid draft class and a lot of top RBs set to be FAs- there may be a good FA market 

Given that Hunt was so close to walking away from all of his talent with nothing I doubt he would want to risk it all again just for a chance to become really really really rich instead of just really really rich.

That's before we even account for the notion that if he were to take a 1 year prove it deal he would be about to turn 26 the next time he had a chance to sign a new deal, which is already an age where the NFL is starting to sour on investing in backs too heavily.

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2 hours ago, Buckna said:

Pointless, Hunt is still on his first contract too and is not their starter. I brought up the salary because he said it was good business to pay a guy they are using as CoP and receiving back 4.1M. I’d say that’s highly debatable. For instance, they could have just kept Duke Johnson for less money had they not pissed him off.

Pointless? Hunt isnt on his first contract either. His contract is up; he is a RFA

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Given that Hunt was so close to walking away from all of his talent with nothing I doubt he would want to risk it all again just for a chance to become really really really rich instead of just really really rich.

That's before we even account for the notion that if he were to take a 1 year prove it deal he would be about to turn 26 the next time he had a chance to sign a new deal, which is already an age where the NFL is starting to sour on investing in backs too heavily.

I think we make mistakes when we try to get in these guys heads.  We did it with Bell & Gordon & their contract disputes.  We did it (repeatedly) with Josh Gordon & his battles with drugs & alcohol.  We did it with AP after the child abuse allegations, we did/do it with NE, every time cheating allegations surface.  “No way he’ll turn down that much money;” “why doesn’t he just stop drinking/drugging until he gets paid, then do whatever he wants;” “just stop disciplining your kid like that (or at least don’t talk about it), till you’re done playing;” “they’re so good, why do they even bother trying to get these tiny advantages;” etc.  They don’t think the way we believe they should think.  Maybe it’s just a sub-set of the elites athletes, or maybe these type of individuals just think differently, or maybe there’s some other explanation, altogether.  But I’m not sure these kinds of assumptions have any more merit than mere speculation,

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9 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He’s definitely talented. If we want to throw out a generic “top 10 talent” tag for him I guess I can buy that but, it’s relative. Off the top of my head I think the following backs are clearly better:

Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliot, Cook, Chubb, Ingram, Gurley (injuries may drop him off), Mixon...

...then there would be a group that would be at best debatable including Henry, Bell, Gordon, Fournette, Drake...

...and while I get that we don’t know what an incoming rookie will do at the NFL level until they actually take the field I don’t think it’s outrageous to say that there 3-4 backs that may likely move ahead of Hunt.

So I get that he’s a very good all around RB but is he worth $4-5MM plus forfeiting a second round pick? I would not want my team making a move like that.

Just my $.02, but I'd place him with Cook & Chubb in your list -- very similar to Cook.  I'm sure people disagree.  Many think of him as a COP guy, but he's much stronger than that.  

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4 minutes ago, daveR said:

Just my $.02, but I'd place him with Cook & Chubb in your list -- very similar to Cook.  I'm sure people disagree.  Many think of him as a COP guy, but he's much stronger than that.  

He’s only the CoP guy in Cleveland because of Chubb but he did lead the league in rushing yards as a rookie so people shouldn’t think of him that way.

I can respect your placement, and I did say in another post I’d concede and wouldn’t argue with anyone that put him in the back half of the Top 10. I’m still not sure what his market will be if the Browns put a second round tender on him, but we’ll see.

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I think considering hunt being tagged as a forgone conclusion is putting the cart before the horse.

The Browns currently have no real plan.  The only leftover personnel come from the analytics offices from two scemes ago.

The next gm/coach may not want hunt at all, or the new front office might want to sign and trade him for a combination of players and picks.

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8 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

I think considering hunt being tagged as a forgone conclusion is putting the cart before the horse.

The Browns currently have no real plan.  The only leftover personnel come from the analytics offices from two scemes ago.

The next gm/coach may not want hunt at all, or the new front office might want to sign and trade him for a combination of players and picks.

More or less -- Eliot Wolf is still around.

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So with what we know, and maybe more importantly what we don't know, about Hunt right how - is he being viewed as a top 20 dynasty RB?

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23 hours ago, menobrown said:

I don't think that is unlikely.  $4.1M on a one year deal for Hunt is good business.  My guess is they would put a first round tender on him before say they put a third round tender on him. 

I'm invested in Hunt, want him to exit but I'm less sure of it then others seem to be. Saying all that I'm not ruling out that it's possible Hunt had a verbal agreement with the Browns when he chose to sign with them that they would not tender him this year but in absence of that I would expect a first or second round tender.  Difficult for me to see a lot of teams want to sign Hunt to a long term deal AND give up a first or second.

Again in the absence of a verbal agreement between Hunt and the Browns about not tendering him I don't think he exits Cleveland this off-season unless it's by trade.  Hope I'm wrong.

Not singling you out, just responding to one of the posts talking about tenders. Comments:

  1. The choices are:
    1. First round tender, estimated to be $4.667M in 2020
    2. Second round tender, estimated to be $3.278M in 2020
    3. Original round tender, estimated to be $2.144M in 2020 - Hunt was drafted in the third round, so this option equates to 3rd round for him
  2. It isn't a foregone conclusion that a team that wants Hunt has to give up a pick equivalent to the tender. Cleveland can trade Hunt's restricted rights. So, for example, if they place a 2nd round tender on him, they could ultimately decide to trade him for anything they feel is good enough, e.g., a 3rd round pick, a 4th and 6th, a conditional future pick, etc.

Aside from that stuff, as good as Hunt may have looked in his short stint in Cleveland, having him complicates their rushing offense. Chubb is a runner who excels with zone blocking, and that is what the team mostly uses when he is in as the primary RB. Hunt is better with gap blocking, and that is what the team mostly uses when he is in as the primary RB. Chubb has had better rushing success than Hunt, which seems to imply that the Browns OL is better at zone blocking than gap blocking. It would simplify things for the Browns if they replaced Hunt with another RB who is better with zone blocking.

IMO keeping Hunt mitigates the value of Chubb to the Browns. I think it makes more sense for them to trade him and draft another RB who better fits their scheme.

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6 hours ago, matttyl said:

So with what we know, and maybe more importantly what we don't know, about Hunt right how - is he being viewed as a top 20 dynasty RB?

I thought about this as a while and honestly don't know.  As an owner I want to say yes.  He certainly has the upside to be top 5 if everything plays out right. But there's just too much uncertainty.

I'm holding in dynasty leagues.  If I can get him for a 3rd round pick I'm trading for him.  I'm not giving him up for anything less than a 1st though.  Don't know where that puts him value wise.

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7 hours ago, matttyl said:

So with what we know, and maybe more importantly what we don't know, about Hunt right how - is he being viewed as a top 20 dynasty RB?

DynastyPros currently has him at #19 for PPR, but that does not reflect any rookie RBs, so he stands to be pushed out of their top 20 unless his situation changes in such a way as to boost him higher. I'm sure some people would argue a handful of guys they rank above him, but I think they have him in the right ballpark.

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