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Anarchy99

2017 Anarchy League 2 Thread - The Inspector Clouseau League

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Here you can find the 2017 Anarchy League 2 league site. The draft is not scheduled yet, and I hope to kick things off in the upcoming week after I finishing setting up all the leagues.
Draft order:

01 - Biabreakable
02 - Norseman
03 - Anarchy99
04 - CalBear
05 - BroncoFreak 2K3
06 - JeremyX13
07 - rzrback77
08 - nittanylion
09 - Stinkin' Ref
10 - There It Is
11 - Reaper
12 - Duckboy
13 - Coordinator
14 - Fiddles
15 - Just Win Baby
16 - Sinrman

NOTE: Minor scoring changes for this year:
1) Successful defensive returns on extra points will score 2 points to that DEF/ST.
2) Players that score TD's on special team returns will now score 6 points (I thought it was set up this way all along).

Edited by Anarchy99

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14 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

This will be my 10th season in League 2. Coming off 3 straight 9th place finishes, I'm confident this is the year. :football: 

Congrats. Like Gaylord ####er 's parents, your parents must be proud of your wall of 9th place ribbons.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Congrats. Like Gaylord ####er 's parents, your parents must be proud of your wall of 9th place ribbons.

I did finish second once, losing in the Super Bowl... but that was 2011 and led to a 5 year SB hangover...

Edited by Just Win Baby

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Congrats. Like Gaylord ####er 's parents, your parents must be proud of your wall of 9th place ribbons.

Late Night Courier: Gaylord M. ####er?

Greg ####er: That's me.

Jack Byrnes: I thought your name was Greg.

Greg ####er: It is.

Late Night Courier: That's not what it says here.

Greg ####er: Gaylord is my legal name. Nobody's called me by it since third grade.

Denny Byrnes: Wait a minute, so your name is Gay ####er?

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7 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Congrats. Like Gaylord ####er 's parents, your parents must be proud of your wall of 9th place ribbons.

Shoot, I'd be HAPPY with a wall of 9th place ribbons in these leagues!  I'm HORRIBLE!  :lmao:

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I always enjoy this league for several reasons.

1) The competition is top notch and the draft is typically lively

2) The rules for this one are so different from all my other leagues

3) We mostly keep the same owners year after year. This is my ninth year and have only four finishes in the top six. Alas my best season was 2nd place in my first year competing in League 2. Also coming off a terrible year finishing the lowest of all my years, 12th.

Good Luck to all League Two members!
 

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Finally won last year....  trying to see what went well.... Zeke Elliot at 1.13...

3 Top 7 RBs... Zeke, Freeman, Murray

Mike Evans then an efficient group of Avg WR's

Crap At TE and QB

Top K points.....

Pretty much just the Luck of not getting any Zero's led by 3 Top RB's....

Draft Start of Zeke, Evans, Freeman, Tate, Murray - All showed up.

 

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On 7/16/2017 at 1:00 PM, Just Win Baby said:

This will be my 10th season in League 2. Coming off 3 straight 9th place finishes, I'm confident this is the year. :football: 

Not that anyone should care about how well or poorly anyone does or doesn't do in these leagues (they are basically for fun and help with draft prep). But I did go back to see how I did in League 2 over the years. Finished 1, 5, 2, 6, 12, and 3 over a 6 year stretch before dropping back to 10 last year. I'll take it, especially with some of the diabolical minds in this group.

I wasn't in League 2 for the first several years and pretty stayed in League 1 (came in 1st, 2nd, and 4th over there but mostly did nothing the other years). The few few seasons, I didn't ever participate and only commished (but that was soooo long ago I barely remember).

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Well that didn't take long for the gauntlet to be thrown. :lmao:

You walked right into that one JWB!!

I have the 1st overall pick? :shock:

Oh #### now what the hell am I going to do? :ph34r:

I will be pretty busy the next couple of days but I should have Friday free when this thing kicks off.

Its nice to hear a few of you guys mention second place finishes. Much like the Vikings I seem to be good at making it that far (sometimes) but always seem to find a way to lose in the end.

Holy crap I have a long wait after the first pick.

Edited by Biabreakable

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15 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

The old adage that nobody cares about your team doesn't apply here. This group has been together so long that we do care.

Thanks again for hosting these!

Now that it apparently is ok to discuss prior results . . . Since I took a spot to fill out of the junior leagues five years ago, I won two more titles. After hearing about JWB and his celebratory happy dance over his bevvy of 9th place finishes, now I don't feel so bad about how I have fared in these leagues. :pattingmyselfontheback:

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After finishing 2nd in '14 and 4th in '15, I felt somewhat optimistic going into last year...

...after finishing dead last in '16, my optimism knows no bounds...

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Started in 2008, so missed the first few years.  3, 6, 16, 1, 4, 5, 1, 8, 2.  Not sure what happened in 2010...

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6 minutes ago, Duckboy said:

Started in 2008, so missed the first few years.  3, 6, 16, 1, 4, 5, 1, 8, 2.  Not sure what happened in 2010...

I would guess injuries. I have had many, many teams that were in front or near the top halfway through the season and then had multiple players go on IR. I believe one year I had so many injuries that I set the all time record for lowest scoring total in Anarchy League 1 history (I finished in last by like 300 points). The next year things evened out, and my team improved by 1,200 points.

There's normally one team that everything goes wrong each year. Last year in A2, it was nittany. Not much you can do.

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49 minutes ago, There it is said:

Reaper said it NO ZERO'S.

Former kicker Garrett Hartley would take exception to this (his jersey number was 0).

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On 7/17/2017 at 11:12 AM, Stephen Holloway said:

I always enjoy this league for several reasons.

1) The competition is top notch and the draft is typically lively

2) The rules for this one are so different from all my other leagues

3) We mostly keep the same owners year after year. This is my ninth year and have only four finishes in the top six. Alas my best season was 2nd place in my first year competing in League 2. Also coming off a terrible year finishing the lowest of all my years, 12th.

Good Luck to all League Two members!
 

Each year 288 players are drafted.  Due to league rules 96 of the 288 is dictated.  32 TMQB 32 PK 32 DST. Which leaves 192 players, of which 16 are flex, which leaves you with 176 players that HAVE to be drafted.

Of the 176, 64 are RB, 80 are WR, and 32 are TE.

2016 Anarchy 2

50 of the top 64 RB's were drafted (78%)

62 of the top 80 WR's were drafted (77.5%)

25 of the top 32 TE's were drafted (78%) 

137 of the top 176 RB, WR, and TE were drafted (77.8%) missed on 39 players with Pitta (47), Tyr Williams(68), CJ Fed (74), Hill (78) and Doyle(79) leading the way. 

All 32 TMQB's finished in the top 288 (actually top 90 which is to be expected)

30 PK's finished in the top 288

31 DST's finsished in the top 288

Kinda crazy how consistent (77-78%) the league was across the RB-WR-TE spectrum. Not sure if that makes us top notch or not....?

 

 

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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9 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Each year 288 players are drafted.  Due to league rules 96 of the 288 is dictated.  32 TMQB 32 PK 32 DST. Which leaves 192 players, of which 16 are flex, which leaves you with 176 players that HAVE to be drafted.

Of the 176, 64 are RB, 80 are WR, and 32 are TE.

2016 Anarchy 2

50 of the top 64 RB's were drafted (78%)

62 of the top 80 WR's were drafted (77.5%)

25 of the top 32 TE's were drafted (78%) 

137 of the top 176 RB, WR, and TE were drafted (77.8%) missed on 39 players with Pitta (47), Tyr Williams(68), CJ Fed (74), Hill (78) and Doyle(79) leading the way. 

All 32 TMQB's finished in the top 288 (actually top 90 which is to be expected)

30 PK's finished in the top 288

31 DST's finsished in the top 288

Kinda crazy how consistent (77-78%) the league was across the RB-WR-TE spectrum. Not sure if that makes us top notch or not....?

 

 

The top notched part should probably mean more that the teams generally finished closer together than other leagues. I have never really studied (or cared to study) overall performance from league to league. However, in the year end overall rankings, there generally are not many teams from League 2 in the running. I think the other leagues end up with some teams that were able to draft guys later than expected and thus had better scoring because of it.

I think if you looked at the percentage at each position that was drafted (like you said 77-78%), I doubt that would vary from league to league. In the past, I would think Leagues 1 and 2 were at a disadvantage, as the other leagues started later and ended later (and they had knowledge that the early drafts did not).

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Looking at total scoring for each league last year . . .

L3	46215.52
L2	46183.02
L5	46102.72
L4	46061.92
L1	45980.32
L6	45926.32
L7	45795.72

League 7 scored 419.8 points less than League 3 did . . . but League 7 was still 99.09% by comparison.

Edited by Anarchy99

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agreed most of the leagues will look the same as the 288 will be very similar league to league.....my thoughts were really just how good is the MDF overall.....

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with everybody in the fantasy world pretty much being fed the same info whether its through here at FBG or one of the hundreds of other sites....I would think that the 78% would be pretty much across the board all things considered....these days the keys to many successful drafts besides the principles of VBD and snagging great value is luck when it comes to health of your players, managing your roster through waiver wire, and in many ways another crucial piece that gets overlooked.....managing other teams roster through the waiver wire by blocking them by acquiring players even if you don't really need them, just so they don't play for somebody else.....and hitting on a difference maker (ala Hill) down the stretch....these leagues being a draft and done really just emphasize VBD and health.....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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5 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

agreed most of the leagues will look the same as the 288 will be very similar league to league.....my thoughts were really just how good is the MDF overall.....

In many ways, people really shouldn't consider little known players that will end up in the Top 288 by the end of the year. No one will really give serious thought to drafting the #5 receiver from a poor team over a #3 WR from a decent passing team (and possible playoff team). We can't predict injuries, so if an NFL team catches the injury bug, suddenly that #5 receiver turns into a starter (and thus an Anarchy League asset).

Even in training camp situations, if it looks like one guy will get playing time and another guy won't, it's not worth the risk to gamble on a player that might not play. In a league like this, I would much rather have the proven, vanilla, plain jane guy over the rookie that might sit the whole season (I'm taking about guys that might be 4th or 5th round NFL draft picks). Give me that guy who has shown he can get 40 catches, 600 yards, and a few TD's instead . . . unless I have great intel or a spidey sense that PLAYER X is going to win the job and no one else knows about him.

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

a spidey sense that PLAYER X is going to win the job and no one else knows about him.

Memories. like when I took Rookie RB Slaten from Houston with the last pick of the draft. and won that year.

Spidey sense, I like it, he had 2 old vet in front of him and I just Spided he would win the job.

God I love FFB

 

 

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Looking at total scoring for each league last year . . .


L3	46215.52
L2	46183.02
L5	46102.72
L4	46061.92
L1	45980.32
L6	45926.32
L7	45795.72

League 7 scored 419.8 points less than League 3 did . . . but League 7 was still 99.09% by comparison.

This doesn't really tell anyone anything, though, does it? I'd be surprised if across the seven leagues there were more than a half-dozen players who were uniquely drafted by a single team. When the list of draftees is identical to within +/- 2% you pretty much have to have scoring that's +/- 2%.

If you wanted to identify the "shark league", you'd have to run a regression to compare which leagues on average drafted the outperformers earliest, and the underperformers latest, relative to the other 6 leagues. So rather than just saying Michael Thomas got drafted in every league, the leagues where someone took him earlier than ADP (but still earned incredible value) get more credit than those that let him fall past his ADP, and vice versa for a guy like Nelson Agholor.

I'll note that (a) I'm sure I'm not the first one to think of this idea, and (b) I am by no means volunteering to do this work. :D

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11 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

This doesn't really tell anyone anything, though, does it? I'd be surprised if across the seven leagues there were more than a half-dozen players who were uniquely drafted by a single team. When the list of draftees is identical to within +/- 2% you pretty much have to have scoring that's +/- 2%.

If you wanted to identify the "shark league", you'd have to run a regression to compare which leagues on average drafted the outperformers earliest, and the underperformers latest, relative to the other 6 leagues. So rather than just saying Michael Thomas got drafted in every league, the leagues where someone took him earlier than ADP (but still earned incredible value) get more credit than those that let him fall past his ADP, and vice versa for a guy like Nelson Agholor.

I'll note that (a) I'm sure I'm not the first one to think of this idea, and (b) I am by no means volunteering to do this work. :D

I'm not sure I'm on board with all that noise.....how is league 3 not the sharkiest league....?

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As far as the shlong measuring goes. from my perspective this mostly started as league two talking smack against league one and it just kind of snowballed from there.

I do draft in league 6 and no offense intended to the drafters there, but I tend to have an easier time getting the players I want in that league than I do here.

Duckboy in particular seems to do something every year that makes me a little hot under the collar, but all of you have gotten me at some point or another.

I have debated with myself what to do with the 1st overall pick a few times the past couple days when I had times already but I think I have made a decision now. I still have some reservations about it, but I haven't been able to talk myself into taking anyone else.

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IIRC David started this as staff only as an experiment, but we wanted in. So he created League 2 from 16 random people who signed up first.and we felt it was a competition against league management. Then year after year they took our winner into League one.

Of course we were destroying them. We stuck together as League 2 and talked smack to League 1 for having to raid our League to be competitive Of course Leagues were added immediately as it became a big success.  .

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So to start things off I have selected Rob Gronkowski.

Aside from injuries I am a bit concerned that Gronk will not be targeted as much because of higher quality WR around him in Cooks, Hogan.

But in this format with the likely playoff potential I think he provides the most advantage.

Norseman on the clock

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

So to start things off I have selected Rob Gronkowski.

Aside from injuries I am a bit concerned that Gronk will not be targeted as much because of higher quality WR around him in Cooks, Hogan.

But in this format with the likely playoff potential I think he provides the most advantage.

Norseman on the clock

Was wondering if Gronk even is still the #1 fantasy TE.., I'd almost lean towards Kelce at this point...but I can buy the playoff angle with your pick. NE will probably go farther in playoffs than KC would.

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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IF Gronkowski is healthy all season he is the TE one by a fairly large margin In the regular season. I am surprised one would even question that, but that is a fairly big if I suppose.

When he has played in 15 or more games (2015 and 2014) he puts up about 400 points. For reference Kelce as the TE one last season scored 325 points. 

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16 minutes ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

Was wondering if Gronk even is still the #1 fantasy TE.., I'd almost lean towards Kelce at this point...but I can buy the playoff angle with your pick. NE will probably go farther in playoffs than KC would.

Name dropper.

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

IF Gronkowski is healthy all season he is the TE one by a fairly large margin In the regular season. I am surprised one would even question that, but that is a fairly big if I suppose.

When he has played in 15 or more games (2015 and 2014) he puts up about 400 points. For reference Kelce as the TE one last season scored 325 points. 

I have no problem taking Gronk and he certainly carries a lot of risk. You don't win the Home Run Derby by hitting singles. 

The best Gronk has to offer and guaranteed playoff points puts all the other tight ends in the rear view mirror. Factor in that 35 or more tight ends are going to get selected and there really is not that much to debate. 

However, if Gronk misses a big chunk of time, that Anarchy team is done for. 

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1.01 in this format and Gronk are like star-crossed lovers, I think. Especially considering 16-Team Serpentine. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Heading out, I predrafted 1.08, and will be able to check-in/draft via phone should we get into mid-Rd 2...

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8 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I have no problem taking Gronk and he certainly carries a lot of risk. You don't win the Home Run Derby by hitting singles. 

The best Gronk has to offer and guaranteed playoff points puts all the other tight ends in the rear view mirror. Factor in that 35 or more tight ends are going to get selected and there really is not that much to debate. 

However, if Gronk misses a big chunk of time, that Anarchy team is done for. 

No guts no glory.

I also think the Patriots are on a mission from god to pad passing stats. Gronk is a big part of that.

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

No guts no glory.

I also think the Patriots are on a mission from god to pad passing stats. Gronk is a big part of that.

Thanks. Now I'm going to have to watch that this weekend.

I ran out of gas. I... I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!

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27 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

However, if Gronk misses a big chunk of time, that Anarchy team is done for. 

Pretty much the case for any high 1st-round pick in a draft-and-done format, though, I think. Especially in a 16-teamer, you ain't winning or even threatening that closely if you lose DJ or AB for a large chunk of time any more than if you lose Gronk.

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Just now, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Pretty much the case for any high 1st-round pick in a draft-and-done format, though, I think. Especially in a 16-teamer, you ain't winning or even threatening that closely if you lose DJ or AB for a large chunk of time any more than if you lose Gronk.

Certainly true, but we have seen Gronk miss a ton of time already. The guy's had more surgeries than Frankenstein. 

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Certainly true, but we have seen Gronk miss a ton of time already. The guy's had more surgeries than Frankenstein. 

:lmao: I've gotta remember that line.

IMO, in general, if you subscribe more to the school that "most injuries are random", you take Gronk in all formats and sleep well at night. If you're more in the "health is a skill" camp, you put him on your DND list in this format.

I'm somewhere in the middle - there are clearly some guys whose bodies aren't cut out for the NFL (the Percy Harvins and Dion Lewises of the world, plus anyone with recurring concussion issues) but I think those are fewer in number than the average person would believe. Gronk (along with guys like Tyler Eifert and Keenan Allen) are interesting and close-to-borderline test cases - you could make arguments either way for all of them, but their upside when healthy is enough for me to overlook the risk that I'm wrong putting them in the first bucket rather than the second.

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It's an interesting dichotomy. Some guys get nagging injuries like hamstring pulls, sprained ankles, broken fingers, or such. Gronk has had major back surgery multiple times now. You have to start worrying if one more awkward hit and he'll be done altogether or if he will adjust his play to be more conservative to take less damage. I doubt either of those will happen, but I think they carry some concern. As stated many times, any game could be a player's last game, but IMO Gronk has a greater risk of being knocked out for the season than other guys. So while other players might have a 1% chance of going down for the season in any game, Gronk might carry a 10% risk of going on IR. Still unlikely, but definitely a much greater risk.

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If you think that multiplier is 10x for Gronk vs. the average NFL player, you should never have him on your team for any reason. If I'm spitballing, I'd put the multiplier at, what, 2x, maybe 2.5x? Probably still too high a number to risk taking him 1.01 in this format, but it's at least defensible.

The big risk for Gronk w/r/t other names I listed is that the next crippling hit could end his career vs. just his season - but while it's why I'd never pay market value for him in dynasty, that's not a consideration here.

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Timing for injuries matters, and an injury at the end of the season is less noticeable. But consider:

2009 - Ruptured disc at U or Arizona
2011 - Ankle injury in post season that required surgery
2012 - Broken arm with complications and 4 surgeries
2013 - Back surgery and torn ACL
2016 - Back surgery

That's 5 major injuries that if they had happened at the start of the year likely would have cost him all of, if not all of, the season.

Running the numbers off of that, Gronk made it through the season uninjured 3 times in 8 years. That's 37.5% of the time.

In a 16 game season, that works out to a 6% chance per game of him ending up hurt (and by extension potentially on IR). (Multiply .94 x .94 and repeat 14 times = 39.5%).

The math is probably off a little bit as I did not account for playoff games, so it likely scales down to a 5% chance each game that Gronk goes down and may not get back up for the rest of the season. That's not making up numbers . . . that's the actual track record for Gronk.

I don't know if being injured more frequently equates to getting injured again more frequently, so that is a leap of faith people have to take in drafting Gronk. I don't think Gronk is more apt to need more ankle surgery or tear an ACL because he has already. However, the back surgeries concern me, as there are only so many times you can mess with your spine and bounce back.


 

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