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2017 Anarchy League 2 Thread - The Inspector Clouseau League

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1 hour ago, Stephen Holloway said:

What has been the most surprising pick thus far?

The Butt pick surprised me (make your own joke). He had ACL surgery on 01/10/17. Not sure when he will actually be able to play and will have to pick stuff up on the fly after having no OTA's, mini camp, training camp, practices, etc.

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32 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Butt pick surprised me (make your own joke). He had ACL surgery on 01/10/17. Not sure when he will actually be able to play and will have to pick stuff up on the fly after having no OTA's, mini camp, training camp, practices, etc.

lol...i thought you made that pick for him as a joke....

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The two for me were Corey Davis and Jake Butt.

I am pleasantly surprised to be able to add WR Randall, the touchdown robber Cobb with my 7.7 selection as WR37. I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay, but Cobb is an awesome slot guy when he is healthy. Excellent opportunity of extra playoff games for the Packers.

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4 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

The two for me were Corey Davis and Jake Butt.

I am pleasantly surprised to be able to add WR Randall, the touchdown robber Cobb with my 7.7 selection as WR37. I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay, but Cobb is an awesome slot guy when he is healthy. Excellent opportunity of extra playoff games for the Packers.

As a Cobb owner in regular leagues (in all the wrong years), thank you for taking him instead of me. I seemed to always get him in his injured or under performing years.

He salvaged last year with a huge post season, but without those points he was really, really ordinary. Of course, he should get playoff points, which is why he is worth more in these leagues than regular season leagues. He's ranked 24, 23, 4, 63, and 18 in Anarchy the past 5 seasons, so he is a decent value at WR 37. If I took him, he would be a disappointment. Since I didn't, we will probably blow up. So go ahead and thank me now for not drafting him.

ETA: He ranked 54th after the regular season but shot up to 24th after the post season.

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15 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

The two for me were Corey Davis and Jake Butt.

I am pleasantly surprised to be able to add WR Randall, the touchdown robber Cobb with my 7.7 selection as WR37. I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay, but Cobb is an awesome slot guy when he is healthy. Excellent opportunity of extra playoff games for the Packers.

ive almost pulled the trigger on Davis in these....I'm not sold that the Decker signing kills him....he may have enough pure talent to make people forget that Mathews, Sharpe, and Decker are even on the team....thats an exaggeration but I'm wouldn't be surprised if it was like Thomas joining Cooks/Sneed/etc.....

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2 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

ive almost pulled the trigger on Davis in these....I'm not sold that the Decker signing kills him....he may have enough pure talent to make people forget that Mathews, Sharpe, and Decker are even on the team....thats an exaggeration but I'm wouldn't be surprised if it was like Thomas joining Cooks/Sneed/etc.....

Not sure the Titans offense with Mariota is in the same class as the Saints offense with Brees, so I am not sure the outcomes will be similar. There has been a lot of debate in the Shark Pool as to how the Titans offense will shape up and if they will continue to ground and pound or if they will get less conservative and open up the passing game. I expect more passing, but not a monumental leap. TEN ranked 28th in attempts last year. Robiskie's offenses have ranked in the Bottom 5 in attempts in 7 years as an OC or HC. Mularkey's teams have also had 5 Bottom 5 rankings in attempts in 14 seasons, but he also had several seasons in the Top 10 (mostly with Atlanta).

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:
2 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

I am pleasantly surprised to be able to add WR Randall, the touchdown robber Cobb with my 7.7 selection as WR37. I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay, but Cobb is an awesome slot guy when he is healthy. Excellent opportunity of extra playoff games for the Packers.

As a Cobb owner in regular leagues (in all the wrong years), thank you for taking him instead of me. I seemed to always get him in his injured or under performing years.

He salvaged last year with a huge post season, but without those points he was really, really ordinary. Of course, he should get playoff points, which is why he is worth more in these leagues than regular season leagues. He's ranked 24, 23, 4, 63, and 18 in Anarchy the past 5 seasons, so he is a decent value at WR 37. If I took him, he would be a disappointment. Since I didn't, we will probably blow up. So go ahead and thank me now for not drafting him.

ETA: He ranked 54th after the regular season but shot up to 24th after the post season.

I would have taken Cobb at 7.15 if he made it to me.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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Was between Cobb and Blount for me on my last pick.  Opted for Blount because I really need a decent starting RB at this point over a WR5, even though Cobb would have been nice at that position. Was a tough decision.

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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5 minutes ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

Was between Cobb and Blount for me on my last pick.  Opted for Blount because I really need a decent starting RB at this point over a WR5, even though Cobb would have been nice at that position. Was a tough decision.

Speaking of Blount, what sort of numbers are people projecting him for? Last year in NE was a huge outlier to every other season.  IIRC, the Eagles have had only one RB in the last 20 years get 10 rushing TD's. 

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1 hour ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

185 carries, 950 total yards. 10 TDs.

The Eagles didn't sign Blount to average 5ypc, because he won't. They signed him because last year, they ranked 23rd on short-yardage conversion % on rushing plays at 61%. (They fooled me - having watching every game, I'd have put the over/under at 50%.)

I'll take the under on both the carries and yards, but 10 TDs is not out of the realm of possibility.

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11 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

The Eagles didn't sign Blount to average 5ypc, because he won't. They signed him because last year, they ranked 23rd on short-yardage conversion % on rushing plays at 61%. (They fooled me - having watching every game, I'd have put the over/under at 50%.)

I'll take the under on both the carries and yards, but 10 TDs is not out of the realm of possibility.

Love this kind of stuff....good ####....kinda like MIA didn't get Julius Thomas to "block"....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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On 7/26/2017 at 7:30 AM, Stephen Holloway said:

Totally different strategy this season. I always have waited late for the quarterbacks, but have not chose wisely later. If Seattle and New England play well into the playoffs then the early back to back quarterback will give me an advantage. Probably not enough to offset the value lost at wide receiver and running back, but I have taken the perceived value at running back for a few years and that has definitely not panned out. I have also performed miserably at tight end so I have joined in the take a lot of tight ends early crowd. Hopefully I can be near the top of the scoring there as well. Now for the rest of the roster, can I find bargains or will I be drafting several zeroes?

1.7 Brady seemed like a no-brainer as the Patriots should be heavily favored for the super bowl. I think that he has another great season in him and I also like that they kept his back-up with the team.

2.10 Wilson and the Seahawks QB to have two highly ranked QB teams with high hope for a long playoff run. Was considering both Olsen and Graham, but they went at 2.5 and 2.8. Was not looking at running back and thought that it was too early for Baldwin at WR9.

3.7 Rudolph - I actually considered Rudolph in the second round and ran to the podium for this pick.

4.10 Delanie Walker - was hoping for Ertz or Bennett to fall and they went well earlier. Began looking elsewhere and set autodraft for Walker of Larry Fitzgerald. I think Bia got a bargain with Fitz at 5.1

Lots of work to do for sure, but enjoy drafting with you guys again. Would prefer a little more discussion on value picks and a little less whining, but at least there is humor all through the thread and humor is always worth the read here as we follow along.

Predrafted my next pick and reviewed Jeremy's roster as I made the choices. He has gathered three of the looks like value running backs in his first four picks. I have done similar in the past and never liked the end result. Good luck finding bargains Jeremy and if you are reading this, you are up.

To be honest I considered taking a QB 1st overall and time will tell if that will end up being the better move or not.

I really was trying to draft QB.. but a ton went, so QB I did have presdrafted were not there.

I was a little surprised by the WIlson pick but makes sense given the likelyhood of extra games and WIlson just being good.

The RB just dont really score enough points to compete with WR and TE of similar tier. That said I've been lucky to have Peterson and Gore with early picks and the rest of the RB pool severely depleted by injuries.

Its not that easy hitting on the late RB picks though. I had Ajayi for dirt cheap last year. I am not seeing an obvious value like that this year.

Edited by Biabreakable

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On 7/26/2017 at 11:09 AM, Stinkin Ref said:

Holloway would like more discussion...I agree...so...

1.09 Le'Veon Bell RB3.....at nine no way did I think I would sniff a top guy, so felt pretty good about getting Bell here and it made the decision pretty easy instead of having to pick from a few guys I have ranked about the same.  Bell missed 3 games to start the year last year and then also week 17 before coming back for the playoffs....so he finished as RB3 in this format and could have played 4 more games. He avg just under 20 points a game so if you give him about another 80 points, he finishes as RB1...40 points clear of David Johnson. Hard to claim value in the first round....but maybe I got a little.

2.08 Jimmy Graham TE5....4 TE's already off the board and a bunch of picks, including a couple from Jeremyx13, till I'm OTC again so besides taking a long nap, TE became the focus in this format.  Graham is back as the #2 target for Wilson and should finish in top 5. Zero value here really.

3.09 Tyreek Hill WR18...debated for awhile, but like his upside more than others and he wasn't going to survive the turn.  Arob is almost dead to me as I blew a couple second round picks on him last year in some home leagues.  I'm sure I'll miss out on his comeback now, but I can live with that.  Hill represents absolutely no value here as he finished as WR19 last year in this format. But I didn't really see any value in the RB's with no PPR for them.  As I mentioned earlier I almost went with the TE heavy approach with this pick and my next one, but just couldn't do it. Only bright thing is that his snaps and touches should increase, so he might finish a few spots higher than last year.  Talent is not a question, only issue in my mind is if teams find a way to limit him, unfortunately KC plays NE in week one so that answer and blueprint may come very quickly. Helps that the league now gives the player points for scoring on special teams.  If Hill would have gotten 18 more points he would have finished as WR15 just behind Fitzgerald and ahead of Crabtree, Cooper, Tate, D. Thomas, and Hopkins. He won't be returning kickoffs but will punts (if they kick to him), but even if he loses those 3 ST TD's, he should be able to make them up with the increase in touches. 

4.08 Terrelle Pryor WR25...Pryor will be on a ton of my teams moving forward at this price.Finished as WR23 in this format last year and his situation seems to have improved pretty dramatically. I am higher on him than most with top 10 type possibilities IMO. This was reflected in other drafts that were ahead of this one and the reason I went Hill/Pryor instead of Pryor/Hill.  Plus I doubt Hill made the turn back to me. Pryor at 6'4 225 is a physical specimen with speed and has shown to be a tough cover for even some of the best corners. His work ethic is off the charts.  He has put in time with Randy Moss and Antonio Brown reaching out to them to improve his game. Signed a one year deal, betting on himself.  I'm all in. The move from CLE to WAS should have his arrow pointing way up.  There is some competition for receptions with a healthy Doctson, Crowder, and Reed, but I expect Cousins to fall in love with Pryor's speed down the field and his size in the red zone. I expect Pryor to eat and drastically outperform WR25, leapfrogging his way into the top 10 for years to come. 

Feel I have some playoff potential so far, trying to keep that in mind. :banned:

I agree with good playoff potential from the top 3 picks. I dunno about the Redskins though and Pryor a complete enigma to me. I

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On 7/26/2017 at 11:23 AM, nittanylion said:

I'll think back on this Draft as the one where Bell went 9th, and I picked 8th, so I had the last chance to get him. With our scoring rules and League format, RB's are all about total yards from scrimmage and TD's, with a nod to playing extra games. 16+ games worth of Bell vs the Steelers 2017 schedule is a frightening thing to consider. Eight of us (well 6, at least - I think Gronk and DJ were the 'correct' 1/2 overall selections) will be evaluating our decisions for quite some time.

1.08: Mike Evans, WR Bucs - I consider Evans to be the 'safest' elite level WR in 2017, just a shade ahead of Nelson. I grow increasingly concerned about Big Ben's home/road splits impacting Brown, Julio's foot, AJG's injuries, Andrew Luck (Hilton) and Beckham for reasons I'll discuss later. I'm not ready to call Michael Thomas or Cooper elite. I predict Evans will be the statistical leader at WR in 2017.

2.09: Jay Ajayi, RB Dolphins - 25th overall pick, thought he should have gone earlier, but he was the last remaining back I have in my sub-DJ/LevB/Zeke tier, so I passed on receptions to gain what I hope is a positional advantage at RB - total yards from scrimmage/TD's/moderate chance at postseason. Did what I felt I had to do.

3.08: Davante Adams, WR Packers - Owned Adams in 2014, traded him away in 2015. After watching 2016, I'm sold, and have Jordy-lite expectations. Should outscore plenty of NFL #1's as Packers #2. Checks all the boxes, including potential 3-4 game postseason strong possibility. Rodgers is one of few that can support more than 1 elite-level WR, and he's made it into the circle of trust. 16-Teamer, he's a borderline 1 and getting him in the middle of Rd 3 screamed value to me. Considered Crabtree. Didn't want 2 Dolphins, so Landry out. Too early to take Fitz, Pryor or Tate, who were leading my next tier.

4.09 Ty Montgomery, RB Packers - Knew I'd be losing ground at QB/TE if I went RB here, but picking in the middle is sometimes a blessing, and as I projected ahead, I felt pretty good about what would still be available at 5.08. I'm not worried about the backs they drafted. Hell, they had to do something at the position with Lacy and Starks gone. Monty grew on me as a RB last year, and with an offseason to prepare, well, I'm a big fan of Stanford kids and their football IQ's. Watching him, I agreed with commentators who said he had a RB body, with WR skills. I think he generates a ton of yards, given it's the Packers, there's plenty of opportunity for TD's, and postseason play is almost a given.

I like where I'm at right now, but that's probably going to change over the next few rounds.

I definitely considerd Bell at 1st overall. I do think the Steelers have a bit better chance at the playoffs than the Cardinals as somewhat of a tiebreaker in Bells favor over David Johnson.

It makes me happy to see Ajayi drafted this high. I need pull another rabibit out of my hat.

Packers? Ew.

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On 7/26/2017 at 0:08 PM, Anarchy99 said:

1.03 - Antonio Brown (WR1)
Probably the safest pick there is. Almost a mortal lock for at least 100-1200-10 with upside for way more and playoff points. Averaged 374 points over the past 4 seasons. Would have taken him first overall.

2.14 - Brandin Cooks (WR11)
I am not concerned that there are a lot of mouths to feed. NE didn't need him and gave up a first to acquire him. All the evidence that I have seen reflects Cooks having a very good year with upside that others may dispute. If either Gronk or Edelman goes down (not exactly all that far fetched), Cooks could jump up to 100-1400-12 (or Brown-like numbers) with playoff points.

I don't see him doing worse than he did in NOS but he will likely have 3 more games played this year. If he produced at the same level as the Saints, that would put him around 300 points (or WR8 last year). I took him at WR11 (but I think he will produce somewhat better than that).

3.03 - DeMarco Murray (RB11)
I don't love Murray, but he should still produce around where I drafted him. I don't see him getting almost 350 touches again in the regular season like last year, but the Titans stand a decent chance of getting a playoff game or two. I took him at RB11. He ranked 7th last year. I wanted at least one decent RB, as the wait-forever-to-draft-running-backs strategy can lead to a really weak group of backs. Putrid, in fact.

4.14 - Colts TMQB (TMQB9)
Not a huge Colts fan (shocker) but not many TMQB's can score 500 points in a season, and this is one of them. Things sound a little precarious with Luck's shoulder right now, but this could be a monumental boost to my scoring if the real Luck shows up and stays healthy. Of course, he could be hurt all year and we could be watching Scott Tolzien most of the season. In which case my chances of winning drop dramatically.

5.03 - Jack Doyle (TE13)
Tight end run of 5 TE's in the 10-12 picks before me. Lots of picks forthcoming before my next pick, so I wanted to snag at least one decent one. With Allen traded to NE, one would think Doyle will see more targets, and the Colts seem to be in the mix to win the division. I initially didn't love this pick, but it's grown on me a little.

Solid picks with Brown and Cooks I guess. 

I sure would hate to see anything bad happen to Murray.:whistle:

Quote

7.0197.BiabreakableHenry, Derrick TEN RB

I thought Luck lasted a bit longer than I expected. Kind of a tease that he got close to my picks.

I still am not on board with Doyle being a thing. I hate the Colts coaches though which keeps guys like this productive.

MEH

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On 7/26/2017 at 6:28 PM, Just Win Baby said:

1.15 - Falcons, TMQB, ATL - 3rd TMQB drafted. Finished as #2 overall scorer in 2016, more than 50 points ahead of #3. That was largely because they made the Super Bowl, and, while that may not happen again, this should be a playoff team, with a solid chance at multiple playoff games. I never drafted a TMQB close to this early in Anarchy, so this is a new strategy.

2.2 - Jordy Nelson, WR, GB - 7th WR drafted. Finished as #3 WR in 2016. Also finished as #3 WR in 2014, with a season lost to injury in between. Surprised he lasted to this pick. This should be a playoff team, with a solid chance at multiple playoff games.

3.15 - Julian Edelman, WR, NE - 21st WR drafted. Since 2013, has only finished below WR #10 in total points in Anarchy format once (2015), and he was WR #8 in ppg in that season. Many seem to assume that Cooks will hammer Edelman's value, but I still see Edelman as the likely leader in WR targets if healthy. Also wanted a valuable piece of the NE passing game, and Brady, Gronk, and Cooks were all already gone. Expecting multiple playoff games. Great value here IMO.

4.2 - Michael Crabtree, WR, OAK - 22nd WR drafted. Finished as WR #14 last season, despite losing QB Carr for game 16 and the playoffs. Considered Fitz here, but took Crabtree because of seemingly greater probability of making the playoffs and playing more games.

5.15 - C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, HOU - 19th TE drafted. Finished as TE #13 last season in a mini 3rd-year breakout, that level of performance (59/630/5 in 17 games) seems repeatable, with mild upside beyond that. Solid chance at playoff game(s).

6.2 - Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers - 20th TE drafted. Finished as TE #15 last season, playing in just 14 games. I doubt he will repeat that, at least not if Henry stays healthy, but I also doubt his dropoff will be as pronounced as some think, if he stays healthy. He has great chemistry with Rivers, and his snaps were already reduced to primarily red zone and passing downs last season, so there is no reason to expect a further reduction in snaps (again, if he is healthy). Unfortunately, playoffs seem like a long shot. This is definitely a bit of a :homer: pick.

I had Ryan in 2015 so good luck to you sir.

3 good WR with pretty good playoff opportunity. These guys do not exactly excite me though. 

Fiedorwicz? Are there really that many TE gone by then?

Gates has been good for a long time and the good ones stay that way late into their careers, until they don't.

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12 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

lol...i thought you made that pick for him as a joke....

I thought this as well when I first saw it. Nope.

There are some out there that have a lot of love for Jakes Butt though.

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All bust team so far:

1.01    1.    Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE    400 points. Risk be damned. On a mission from God.


2.16    32.    Baldwin, Doug SEA WR    Has finished 6th and 8th at WR the last two seasons and scored 300 points. I am hoping for more of the same. I don't see much reason why not?


3.01    33.    Watkins, Sammy BUF WR   Serious upside with Watkins if he is actually healthy for most of this season. Playoff outlook pretty much nil.


4.16    64.    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    I believe in Parkers talent. There are some issues outside of his own that could still hold him back though. I really like coach Gase though and I do think they open up the offense going into year two. Playoffs unlikely.


5.01    65.   Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR    I love Fitzgerald. Finished 5tth and 13th the last two seasons and I think he could be in that range again. Strong floor as my WR 4


6.16    96.    Bengals, Cincinnati CIN TMQB    Holy crap you guys drafted a lot of QBs. I was hoping to at least get Stafford or Eli or something. Red Rifle? Oh my. :Lots of weapons to work with though.


7.01    97.    Henry, Derrick TEN RB Not really excited about this pick but I did need some sort of player resembling a RB this year. For all the WR the Titans added this year I still think they run the ball a ton. Hoping something breaks my way here. Maybe could have gone another direction.
 

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13 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Speaking of Blount, what sort of numbers are people projecting him for? Last year in NE was a huge outlier to every other season.  IIRC, the Eagles have had only one RB in the last 20 years get 10 rushing TD's. 

Waldman has him at RB16, #39 overall in redraft. I read his review before I did my pick and I liked his take in his ranking....

Quote

Another year, another season where folks underestimate Blount. He was written off for being too slow, but he illustrated why acceleration and change-of-direction quickness were always more important traits. He was written off for being a stiff plodder, but continues to show great hip and ankle flexion to avoid penetration inthe backfield, turning certain losses into moderate gains. He's now being written off in Philadelphia because he won't have Tom Brady and the Patriots surrounding talent. However, Blount is joining one of the best offensive lines in the league and if you say that he doesnt catch enough passes, didnt New England field multiple receiving backs while Blount was the No. 7 fantasy RB last year and the No. 12 option for the first 10 weeks of 2015? Maybe the age monsters will rise from the edge of our flat earth and swallow Blount whole in 2017. It will be the first thing folks get right about him. (Sun. July 23)

 

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As far as Blount goes, I have concerns that he did as well as he did in NE because of the system and not because of him. Call him a system running back TM if you will. Brady and the Pats' offense was was so hard to defend and afforded Blount a ton of red zone opportunities that may not be available as frequently with Wentz and the Eagles.

Over the past 4 seasons, of all RB's with at least 250 total touches across those seasons, Blount ranked 59th in yards per touch. His ypc isn't that great, and he doesn't typically catch many passes. Prior to last year, he had scored 31 rushing TD's in 84 games . . . the equivalent of 5.9 in 16 games. He's also missed time in 4 of 6 seasons.

Who knows, maybe the Eagles have big plans for Blount, but the question will be which is the real Blount, the one from that averaged 6 TD per pro-rated season or the guy from last year.

That being said, he is not a bad pick at this point in the draft (taken as RB27), as there are not a lot of RB's available. I find it odd that the Eagles still have Mathews around, and a trio of Mathews, Blount, and Sproles would hurt the fantasy value of all of them.

Time will tell if the "NE lead RB spot" can be filled by anyone and if Blount will fall in the Maroney / Green-Ellis / Ridley category. Maroney lasted 4 games in DEN with a 2.1 ypc. BJGE moved on to CIN for 2 seasons and fumbled 5 times after never fumbling in NE with a 3.7 ypc. And in limited action between the Jets and Falcons, Ridley has compiled a 2.4 ypc (although he just signed yesterday with the Broncos).

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I think Blount helps take pressure off Wentz trying to do it all, like he did last year (2nd most pass atttempt for a rookie I think last season).

We will see.

Ridley is garbage camp filler.

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

All bust team so far:

1.01    1.    Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE    400 points. Risk be damned. On a mission from God.
2.16    32.    Baldwin, Doug SEA WR    Has finished 6th and 8th at WR the last two seasons and scored 300 points. I am hoping for more of the same. I don't see much reason why not?
3.01    33.    Watkins, Sammy BUF WR   Serious upside with Watkins if he is actually healthy for most of this season. Playoff outlook pretty much nil.
4.16    64.    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    I believe in Parkers talent. There are some issues outside of his own that could still hold him back though. I really like coach Gase though and I do think they open up the offense going into year two. Playoffs unlikely.
5.01    65.   Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR    I love Fitzgerald. Finished 5tth and 13th the last two seasons and I think he could be in that range again. Strong floor as my WR 4
6.16    96.    Bengals, Cincinnati CIN TMQB    Holy crap you guys drafted a lot of QBs. I was hoping to at least get Stafford or Eli or something. Red Rifle? Oh my. :Lots of weapons to work with though.
7.01    97.    Henry, Derrick TEN RB Not really excited about this pick but I did need some sort of player resembling a RB this year. For all the WR the Titans added this year I still think they run the ball a ton. Hoping something breaks my way here. Maybe could have gone another direction.
 

I think I mentioned this in another Anarchy thread but Gronk at 1.01 is too much risk even for my liking, and I'm generally a swing for the fences type in these drafts. I understand the sentiment though.

You got two absolute steals in Baldwin and Fitz. Someone needs to explain to me why Fitz in particular is falling into the WR30 ADP range - he's shown absolutely no signs of slowing down and he's as close to uncoverable in the slot as any WR since Jerry Rice. I guess it's concern over 2017 being the year Palmer finally turns into a Manning-shaped pumpkin? Personally I don't see it happening for reasons I'll explain later on (and/or in the L6 thread if my draft falls that way).

Watkins and Parker - meh. Someone - may have even been you - pointed out in the winter after a SP poster had left Sammy off their top-60 that if that sentiment held true, he'd be the buy-low of the century this year, which I agreed with. But given the playoff add-on plus his health risk, I think his fair value is no better than where you got him. Parker's got upside but he's another one for whom I'd hoped "post-hype sleeper" would mean a price cheaper than WR27.

I love Henry and it wouldn't be the first time we saw an older RB hit the wall and go from top-5 RB to glorified GL back in one season so there's that. Definitely would have taken the sure(r) points in Blount here.

Dalton will put up something in the 300-350 range, just like about 15 other QBs. Not exciting but you had to grab something here.

I don't love this team at first blush but you've left yourself spots to fill at the positions where late-round darts are likeliest to win leagues for you while locking up 900-1,000 points from your top-4 WRs, so it's probably better positioned than it looks.

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26 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

You got two absolute steals in Baldwin and Fitz. Someone needs to explain to me why Fitz in particular is falling into the WR30 ADP range - he's shown absolutely no signs of slowing down and he's as close to uncoverable in the slot as any WR since Jerry Rice. I guess it's concern over 2017 being the year Palmer finally turns into a Manning-shaped pumpkin? Personally I don't see it happening for reasons I'll explain later on (and/or in the L6 thread if my draft falls that way).

An equally perplexing question is why Brandon Marshall is getting no love at all this year. Marshall and Fitz are both 33, but consider over the past 5 seasons:

Marshall: 1320.2 Anarchy points, an average of 264 per season, 17.4 ppg
Fitzgerald: 1141.4 Anarchy points, an average of 228.3 per season, 14.1 ppg

Last year, Marshall had the displeasure of playing with Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith on essentially a D-III college team. I'm not the world's biggest Eli fan, but he is better than that motley crew. Marshall ranked as the WR4 and Fitz as the WR5 in 2015. I don't get why people are choosing to ignore them (and why Marshall is going 23 picks later than Fitz in these leagues . . . and that's only because I drafted Marshall in 3 of the 4 leagues he's been taken in so far). If people want to say that was then and this is now, I can't really refute that, but it does seem like these guys are getting somewhat overlooked.

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Packers, Green Bay GBP TMQB 1.05 – Liked Rodgers at this pick more than some of the other options available at the time.  Almost as can’t miss as you can get at this point.

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR (Q)  2.12 – He is what he is. Because of the offenses IND faces this season, there will be lots of opportunities for high scoring games.

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR Pick 37, 3.05 – Not a particularly good season last year, basically working with a rookie QB, and still made it into the top 20.  In amazing shape this season, I think he regains his former stud standing and breaks back into the top 10 this season. The passing game is certainly nothing to write home about, but DEN has the 2nd easiest ranked schedule vs. the pass this season (Warren Sharp).

Diggs, Stefon MIN WR   Pick 60, 4.12 – Maybe a bit higher on Diggs than others, but I really like his big hit threat everytime he gets his hands on the ball. Considered Walker at this spot but he got snagged 2 picks ahead of me. Through WEEK 12, MIN plays the 3rd easiest schedule in the league (Warren Sharp)

Tate, Golden DET WR     Pick 69, 5.05 – Didn’t have a particularly great season last year, but was definitely Stafford’s No. 1 target in a high octane pass offense. I think he fits nicely as my No. 4 WR. Wanted Fitz here, but he got snagged 4 picks ahead of me. Tough schedule, only 3 vs. the bottom 4 DEF (Warren Sharp), but I think Tate weathers the storm fine.  Lots of possible high scoring games.

Coleman, Tevin ATL RB  Pick 92, 6.12 – Really needed to snag a No.1 RB here. I wanted Ingram here, but he got picked 2 ahead of me. I think he steal a few more carry opportunities from Freeman, as ATL tries to keep Freeman fresh.  I like his big hit ability, but he certainly can be boom-or-bust. Hoping for more boom this season. Should have a fairly easy early schedule, as 4 of first 5 are vs. bottom 10 defenses (Warren Sharp)

Blount, LeGarrette PHI RB Pick 101, 7.05 – Like I said earlier, seriously contemplated going with Cobb here, but really needed a reliable RB1, because I’m not enthralled with Coleman as my No. 1 RB. Fairly easy schedule vs. run for ¾ of season, bu then it gets more difficult (4 top 5 def opponents) (Warren Sharp)

I like this team for the most part. I realize I’m in serious shape at TE and I have a lot of work to do going forward, but I’m hoping that my core 4 WRs reduce the effect of diminished returns at TE position.  There still are bodies to be had at the TE position, maybe I hit on a as of yet unknown value. Guess we’ll see.

Enjoying this draft and the A2 league company.  Good stuff.

I put on my fire suit, so fire away!! :scared:

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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15 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

An equally perplexing question is why Brandon Marshall is getting no love at all this year. Marshall and Fitz are both 33, but consider over the past 5 seasons:

Marshall: 1320.2 Anarchy points, an average of 264 per season, 17.4 ppg
Fitzgerald: 1141.4 Anarchy points, an average of 228.3 per season, 14.1 ppg

Last year, Marshall had the displeasure of playing with Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith on essentially a D-III college team. I'm not the world's biggest Eli fan, but he is better than that motley crew. Marshall ranked as the WR4 and Fitz as the WR5 in 2015. I don't get why people are choosing to ignore them (and why Marshall is going 23 picks later than Fitz in these leagues . . . and that's only because I drafted Marshall in 3 of the 4 leagues he's been taken in so far). If people want to say that was then and this is now, I can't really refute that, but it does seem like these guys are getting somewhat overlooked.

Just got B. Marshall at 105, 7.09 in Anarchy4. Pretty happy about that value.

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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12 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

An equally perplexing question is why Brandon Marshall is getting no love at all this year. Marshall and Fitz are both 33, but consider over the past 5 seasons:

Marshall: 1320.2 Anarchy points, an average of 264 per season, 17.4 ppg
Fitzgerald: 1141.4 Anarchy points, an average of 228.3 per season, 14.1 ppg

Last year, Marshall had the displeasure of playing with Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith on essentially a D-III college team. I'm not the world's biggest Eli fan, but he is better than that motley crew. Marshall ranked as the WR4 and Fitz as the WR5 in 2015. I don't get why people are choosing to ignore them (and why Marshall is going 23 picks later than Fitz in these leagues . . . and that's only because I drafted Marshall in 3 of the 4 leagues he's been taken in so far). If people want to say that was then and this is now, I can't really refute that, but it does seem like these guys are getting somewhat overlooked.

Another steal for you.  That's the kind of pick that puts you in the up upper half of the league right off the bat.

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34 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

An equally perplexing question is why Brandon Marshall is getting no love at all this year. Marshall and Fitz are both 33, but consider over the past 5 seasons:

Marshall: 1320.2 Anarchy points, an average of 264 per season, 17.4 ppg
Fitzgerald: 1141.4 Anarchy points, an average of 228.3 per season, 14.1 ppg

Last year, Marshall had the displeasure of playing with Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith on essentially a D-III college team. I'm not the world's biggest Eli fan, but he is better than that motley crew. Marshall ranked as the WR4 and Fitz as the WR5 in 2015. I don't get why people are choosing to ignore them (and why Marshall is going 23 picks later than Fitz in these leagues . . . and that's only because I drafted Marshall in 3 of the 4 leagues he's been taken in so far). If people want to say that was then and this is now, I can't really refute that, but it does seem like these guys are getting somewhat overlooked.

Marshall is the end zone target they needed. Lots of td's. I just knew if I took Moncrief I wouldn't get him here in A2. I rolled the dice and lost. He is tailor made for NY.

I love the pick. I love the value. Can't wait for $ leagues.

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8 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

I think I mentioned this in another Anarchy thread but Gronk at 1.01 is too much risk even for my liking, and I'm generally a swing for the fences type in these drafts. I understand the sentiment though.

You got two absolute steals in Baldwin and Fitz. Someone needs to explain to me why Fitz in particular is falling into the WR30 ADP range - he's shown absolutely no signs of slowing down and he's as close to uncoverable in the slot as any WR since Jerry Rice. I guess it's concern over 2017 being the year Palmer finally turns into a Manning-shaped pumpkin? Personally I don't see it happening for reasons I'll explain later on (and/or in the L6 thread if my draft falls that way).

Watkins and Parker - meh. Someone - may have even been you - pointed out in the winter after a SP poster had left Sammy off their top-60 that if that sentiment held true, he'd be the buy-low of the century this year, which I agreed with. But given the playoff add-on plus his health risk, I think his fair value is no better than where you got him. Parker's got upside but he's another one for whom I'd hoped "post-hype sleeper" would mean a price cheaper than WR27.

I love Henry and it wouldn't be the first time we saw an older RB hit the wall and go from top-5 RB to glorified GL back in one season so there's that. Definitely would have taken the sure(r) points in Blount here.

Dalton will put up something in the 300-350 range, just like about 15 other QBs. Not exciting but you had to grab something here.

I don't love this team at first blush but you've left yourself spots to fill at the positions where late-round darts are likeliest to win leagues for you while locking up 900-1,000 points from your top-4 WRs, so it's probably better positioned than it looks.

Thanks for the comments. We obviously disagree about several choices here and certainly possible that I am wrong and the majority as well as you are right about those. I am not paying attention to ADP or what the consensus thinks much at all and taking the players who I think give me the most advantage throughout.

I am not going to defend the Gronk pick any further. The way I see it is that drafting from the one hole gives me one bonus player and the rest of my draft is picking value at the turns after everyone else has picked two players, so in that sense I am behind everyone else except for the 1st pick which I used on the player that I expect to be the highest scoring TE of 2017. The pick allows me to outpoint a lot of other teams first TWO TE picks, I did consider drafting a QB or a RB here instead, but doing the math those picks did not allow me to lap the field as much as Gronkowski could..

As I mentioned earlier I would have preferred Brandin Cooks and Baldwin for the 2nd and 3rd picks, but Balfwin and Watkins may be just as good or better. I have been nervous about the Bills not picking up Watkins option but I haven't viewed it as possibly taking Watkins if the value is good enough. I do recall the thread your referring to but that wasn't the position I have taken with Watkins who I still value very highly.  I see Watkins as potential WR one (top 12) in 2017. He has produced as such when healthy and in this format I see him giving me about 300 points from the WR position in 2017, Even if he only gives me 200 or so I think the pick breaks even, but I am drafting for upside and taking a player who's talent I believe in.

I keep getting Fitzgerald the last few years as people have been fading him due to his age. He is still one of the best WR to ever do it in my view. i am more worried about Palmer causing him to fail than anything else.

I love DeVantae Parker almost as much as Watkins and everything I have read regarding him this offseason is pointing towards him breaking out in a big way this year. I believe in Gase and I think the Dolphins offense improves significantly in his 2nd season with the team. I think they are going to add 200 total offensive plays and that most of those plays are going to be passing attempts, and most of the increased passing attempts are going to be going Parkers way. I don't believe in Julius Thomas working out at all. Some concerns for me are Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins offensive line getting in the way of this outcome. In retrospect I think I maybe could have selected Ebron over him or a QB over Parker but I had them ranked slightly lower than Parker, so I didn't.

I am kind of not happy about the Henry pick but that is how many RB had been selected by this point. I certainly wasn't targeting Blount or any other RB instead of Henry though. I need some things to go my way for this to really pay off, but Henry showed me enough towards the end of the 2016 season to believe he will be used more in 2017. I don't see Murray getting goal line love over him this year. Murray I think will be impacted by all the receivers they drafted and will cede playing time to Henry as the season goes on, even if he remains healthy and their lead RB again.

I have my 4 WR getting 1000-1200 points as a whole, the main difference being my view on Watkins and Parker. With Gronk getting 400 I should have about 1600-1800 points from my first five picks if things break right for me...

Not excited about the Dalton pick but the Bengals have weapons and their defense seems to be slipping. I just didn't want to end up with two of the worst QB. If Dalton can perform as a middle of the pack QB it will be worth it. I would have preferred Stafford but I could easily be wrong about that. I tend to under value Dalton I think.

Edited by Biabreakable

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7 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

An equally perplexing question is why Brandon Marshall is getting no love at all this year. Marshall and Fitz are both 33, but consider over the past 5 seasons:

Marshall: 1320.2 Anarchy points, an average of 264 per season, 17.4 ppg
Fitzgerald: 1141.4 Anarchy points, an average of 228.3 per season, 14.1 ppg

Last year, Marshall had the displeasure of playing with Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith on essentially a D-III college team. I'm not the world's biggest Eli fan, but he is better than that motley crew. Marshall ranked as the WR4 and Fitz as the WR5 in 2015. I don't get why people are choosing to ignore them (and why Marshall is going 23 picks later than Fitz in these leagues . . . and that's only because I drafted Marshall in 3 of the 4 leagues he's been taken in so far). If people want to say that was then and this is now, I can't really refute that, but it does seem like these guys are getting somewhat overlooked.

I think Marshall fell off last year and won't return to previous numbers in 2017. I thought he was way over valued last season as well.

He does seem to do well in his first season with a new team though. So maybe that happens again.

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8 hours ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

Packers, Green Bay GBP TMQB 1.05 – Liked Rodgers at this pick more than some of the other options available at the time.  Almost as can’t miss as you can get at this point.

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR (Q)  2.12 – He is what he is. Because of the offenses IND faces this season, there will be lots of opportunities for high scoring games.

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR Pick 37, 3.05 – Not a particularly good season last year, basically working with a rookie QB, and still made it into the top 20.  In amazing shape this season, I think he regains his former stud standing and breaks back into the top 10 this season. The passing game is certainly nothing to write home about, but DEN has the 2nd easiest ranked schedule vs. the pass this season (Warren Sharp).

Diggs, Stefon MIN WR   Pick 60, 4.12 – Maybe a bit higher on Diggs than others, but I really like his big hit threat everytime he gets his hands on the ball. Considered Walker at this spot but he got snagged 2 picks ahead of me. Through WEEK 12, MIN plays the 3rd easiest schedule in the league (Warren Sharp)

Tate, Golden DET WR     Pick 69, 5.05 – Didn’t have a particularly great season last year, but was definitely Stafford’s No. 1 target in a high octane pass offense. I think he fits nicely as my No. 4 WR. Wanted Fitz here, but he got snagged 4 picks ahead of me. Tough schedule, only 3 vs. the bottom 4 DEF (Warren Sharp), but I think Tate weathers the storm fine.  Lots of possible high scoring games.

Coleman, Tevin ATL RB  Pick 92, 6.12 – Really needed to snag a No.1 RB here. I wanted Ingram here, but he got picked 2 ahead of me. I think he steal a few more carry opportunities from Freeman, as ATL tries to keep Freeman fresh.  I like his big hit ability, but he certainly can be boom-or-bust. Hoping for more boom this season. Should have a fairly easy early schedule, as 4 of first 5 are vs. bottom 10 defenses (Warren Sharp)

Blount, LeGarrette PHI RB Pick 101, 7.05 – Like I said earlier, seriously contemplated going with Cobb here, but really needed a reliable RB1, because I’m not enthralled with Coleman as my No. 1 RB. Fairly easy schedule vs. run for ¾ of season, bu then it gets more difficult (4 top 5 def opponents) (Warren Sharp)

I like this team for the most part. I realize I’m in serious shape at TE and I have a lot of work to do going forward, but I’m hoping that my core 4 WRs reduce the effect of diminished returns at TE position.  There still are bodies to be had at the TE position, maybe I hit on a as of yet unknown value. Guess we’ll see.

Enjoying this draft and the A2 league company.  Good stuff.

I put on my fire suit, so fire away!! :scared:

Honestly I did strongly consider Rodgers over Gronk as the 1st overall pick and I think going that way would have been a safer option. I just never wish good things for the Packers and couldn't stomach drafting a QB 1st overall. If I did go that route I likely would have taken Brady instead.

I love DT and Hilton picks. Diggs and Tate were very good picks as well. I see our first five picks mirroring each other in a lot of ways. Your picks have safer floors than mine do but not as much upside.

Interesting perspective about the SOS in reference to the Vikings. I haven't spent much time considering SOS this year and I wish I had made time for that because I do think it has an impact in this format. I have been burned by drafting based more on SOS in 2014 though.

I can't criticize the RB picks much. We need four of them and it was slim pickings long before pick 92 at the position. I still think the Diggs and Tate picks were safer bets than going RB instead at that point.

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So glad I still got Ryan Tannehiill after I shot my mouth off (again) about the Doilphins increasing total offensive plays by 200 and the majority of those being pass attempts with the majority of those targets going to DeVantae Parker.

All bust team so far:

1.01    1.    Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE    400 points. Risk be damned. On a mission from God.


2.16    32.    Baldwin, Doug SEA WR    Has finished 6th and 8th at WR the last two seasons and scored 300 points. I am hoping for more of the same. I don't see much reason why not?


3.01    33.    Watkins, Sammy BUF WR   Serious upside with Watkins if he is actually healthy for most of this season. Playoff outlook pretty much nil.


4.16    64.    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    I believe in Parkers talent. There are some issues outside of his own that could still hold him back though. I really like coach Gase though and I do think they open up the offense going into year two. Playoffs unlikely.


5.01    65.   Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR    I love Fitzgerald. Finished 5tth and 13th the last two seasons and I think he could be in that range again. Strong floor as my WR 4


6.16    96.    Bengals, Cincinnati CIN TMQB    Holy crap you guys drafted a lot of QBs. I was hoping to at least get Stafford or Eli or something. Red Rifle? Oh my. :Lots of weapons to work with though.


7.01    97.    Henry, Derrick TEN RB Not really excited about this pick but I did need some sort of player resembling a RB this year. For all the WR the Titans added this year I still think they run the ball a ton. Hoping something breaks my way here. Maybe could have gone another direction.
 

8.16    128.    Hunt, Kareem KCC RB    I really like Hunt and I can see him becoming the Chiefs feature RB. Spencer Ware is also a good player which is why I was able to still get Hunt this late. I like his chances to be the top scoring RB for KC who does have playoff potential as well, although the AFC West has 3 teams who are serious contenders to make it in my opinion.


9.01    129.    Dolphins, Miami MIA TMQB    I still have reservations about Ryan Tannehill being the answer at QB. If Gase fails I think it will be because of RT. But when he took that job he had to sell their front office on being able to help RT to improve. What Miami did last season was flounder trying to find a way to win games early on in the season. The passing game did not do well enough and Gase changed to a more conservative ball control style of offense to help out their defense and also because RT wasn't executing well enough. I am predicting  that the increased volume of 200 plays comes as a combination of progression towards the mean in terms of total plays and this being the second year in the system help RT take a big step forward.

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Totally understand GB. You got Gronk and 4 top WRs. Then you looked and the QBs were gone. It's a new League 2. I was shocked too but,participated in it andd changed my MO.

You had to protect your investment with QB' that wouldn't hurt. @ RBs to avoid zeros later. Now lets kick butt!

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Lots of good picks the past two rounds. I decided to be that guy and combo Gostkowski with the Patriots Team QB. I guess I'll be cheering them on this year.

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The PK trend in Anarchy 2:

  • 2005: 1st (Vanderjagt) at 12.5, 2nd (Vinatieri) at 12.6
  • 2006: 1st (Vinatieri) at 12.4, 2nd (Elam) at 13.11
  • 2007: 1st (Vinatieri) at 11.3, 2nd (Wilkins) at 12.13
  • 2008: 1st (Gostkowski) at 11.3, 2nd (Folk) at 11.11
  • 2009: 1st (Gostkowski) at 12.14, 2nd (Kaeding) at 13.3
  • 2010: 1st (Kaeding) at 12.2, 2nd (Hartley) at 12.6
  • 2011: 1st (Crosby) at 12.4, 2nd (Kaeding) at 12.5
  • 2012: 1st (Akers) at 11.3, 2nd (Gostkowski) at 12.1
  • 2013: 1st (Gostkowski) at 12.8, 2nd (Prater) at 12.11
  • 2014: 1st (Prater) at 11.16, 2nd (Hauschka) at 12.1
  • 2015: 1st (Gostkowski) at 10.16, 2nd (Crosby) at 11.1
  • 2016: 1st (Gostkowski) at 9.3, 2nd (Hauschka) at 11.11

This year so far:

  • 10.10 Gostkowski
  • 10.12 Tucker
  • 10.16 Crosby
  • 11.1 McManus
  • 11.2 Bailey

Interesting to look at the contrast between 2005-2014 and 2015-2017.

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The good news is the whining about making timely picks has died down and things have really picked up on the draft speed front. The bad news is the chatter and strategy talk has pretty much become non-existent.  

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The good news is the whining about making timely picks has died down and things have really picked up on the draft speed front. The bad news is the chatter and strategy talk has pretty much become non-existent.  

my recent picks have sucked so bad....I don't really want to talk about them

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Packers, Green Bay GBP TMQB 1.05 – Liked Rodgers at this pick more than some of the other options available at the time.  Almost as can’t miss as you can get at this point.

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR (Q)  2.12 – He is what he is. Because of the offenses IND faces this season, there will be lots of opportunities for high scoring games.

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR Pick 37, 3.05 – Not a particularly good season last year, basically working with a rookie QB, and still made it into the top 20.  In amazing shape this season, I think he regains his former stud standing and breaks back into the top 10 this season. The passing game is certainly nothing to write home about, but DEN has the 2nd easiest ranked schedule vs. the pass this season (Warren Sharp).

Diggs, Stefon MIN WR   Pick 60, 4.12 – Maybe a bit higher on Diggs than others, but I really like his big hit threat everytime he gets his hands on the ball. Considered Walker at this spot but he got snagged 2 picks ahead of me. Through WEEK 12, MIN plays the 3rd easiest schedule in the league (Warren Sharp)

Tate, Golden DET WR     Pick 69, 5.05 – Didn’t have a particularly great season last year, but was definitely Stafford’s No. 1 target in a high octane pass offense. I think he fits nicely as my No. 4 WR. Wanted Fitz here, but he got snagged 4 picks ahead of me. Tough schedule, only 3 vs. the bottom 4 DEF (Warren Sharp), but I think Tate weathers the storm fine.  Lots of possible high scoring games.

Coleman, Tevin ATL RB  Pick 92, 6.12 – Really needed to snag a No.1 RB here. I wanted Ingram here, but he got picked 2 ahead of me. I think he steal a few more carry opportunities from Freeman, as ATL tries to keep Freeman fresh.  I like his big hit ability, but he certainly can be boom-or-bust. Hoping for more boom this season. Should have a fairly easy early schedule, as 4 of first 5 are vs. bottom 10 defenses (Warren Sharp)

Blount, LeGarrette PHI RB Pick 101, 7.05 – Like I said earlier, seriously contemplated going with Cobb here, but really needed a reliable RB1, because I’m not enthralled with Coleman as my No. 1 RB. Fairly easy schedule vs. run for ¾ of season, bu then it gets more difficult (4 top 5 def opponents) (Warren Sharp).

 

 

Starting back up from previous posting...

 

West, Terrance BAL RB Pick 124, 8.12 - I liked FGB's take on him, that's what sold me over another else available at this spot...and I needed another solid starting RB. 

Quote

If West simply leads the Ravens in carries and rushing touchdowns again this year, he'll easily merit the 12th-14th round pick it costs to add him to your later running back picks in best ball leagues. West also should get more work in the first four games with Kenneth Dixon out. Three of them are at home, where three of West's four biggest fantasy games came last year. 

Cameron TBB TE Pick 133, 9.05 - Waiting on a TE may cost me some points, but I was holding out that someone of value may still slip to me at this point. Everywhere I looked, this guy was ranked anywhere from TE15-20, so I grabbed him.  There is some concern about OJ, but Brate has been such a force in the redzone and near the goalline, too ghood to pass up at this point.  His scores will probably go down a touch, but he will still contribute in short yardage and redzone situations. Jameis loves him.

Tucker, Justin BAL PK Pick  156, 10.12 - Top 3 KR.  Glad to get him right before the PK rush starts.

Woods, Robert LAR WR Pick 165,11.05 - Again, I like and agree with FBGs take on Woods.

Quote

Expect Woods to lead the Rams in targets. If the offense improves from last year, Woods will have top-20 upside at a late-round ADP. 

Should be LAR #1 WR FWIW.  Getting solid weekly reception numbers will help at this WR5 position, takes the heat off of not going with TEs earlier and he seems to be above his competition at WR5, from what I observed prior to drafting him.

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On 7/26/2017 at 4:28 PM, Just Win Baby said:

1.15 - Falcons, TMQB, ATL - 3rd TMQB drafted. Finished as #2 overall scorer in 2016, more than 50 points ahead of #3. That was largely because they made the Super Bowl, and, while that may not happen again, this should be a playoff team, with a solid chance at multiple playoff games. I never drafted a TMQB close to this early in Anarchy, so this is a new strategy.

2.2 - Jordy Nelson, WR, GB - 7th WR drafted. Finished as #3 WR in 2016. Also finished as #3 WR in 2014, with a season lost to injury in between. Surprised he lasted to this pick. This should be a playoff team, with a solid chance at multiple playoff games.

3.15 - Julian Edelman, WR, NE - 21st WR drafted. Since 2013, has only finished below WR #10 in total points in Anarchy format once (2015), and he was WR #8 in ppg in that season. Many seem to assume that Cooks will hammer Edelman's value, but I still see Edelman as the likely leader in WR targets if healthy. Also wanted a valuable piece of the NE passing game, and Brady, Gronk, and Cooks were all already gone. Expecting multiple playoff games. Great value here IMO.

4.2 - Michael Crabtree, WR, OAK - 22nd WR drafted. Finished as WR #14 last season, despite losing QB Carr for game 16 and the playoffs. Considered Fitz here, but took Crabtree because of seemingly greater probability of making the playoffs and playing more games.

5.15 - C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, HOU - 19th TE drafted. Finished as TE #13 last season in a mini 3rd-year breakout, that level of performance (59/630/5 in 17 games) seems repeatable, with mild upside beyond that. Solid chance at playoff game(s).

6.2 - Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers - 20th TE drafted. Finished as TE #15 last season, playing in just 14 games. I doubt he will repeat that, at least not if Henry stays healthy, but I also doubt his dropoff will be as pronounced as some think, if he stays healthy. He has great chemistry with Rivers, and his snaps were already reduced to primarily red zone and passing downs last season, so there is no reason to expect a further reduction in snaps (again, if he is healthy). Unfortunately, playoffs seem like a long shot. This is definitely a bit of a :homer: pick.

7.15 - Eddie Lacy, RB, SEA - 28th RB drafted. Swinging for the fences here. It's been a long time since he finished as RB #4 in this format in 2014. Hoping he is focused and ready to rebound, and Carroll is the guy to get that out of him. Signs are positive so far, but still a long way to go. If he earns and holds the starting job and stays healthy - so three if's - good chance at a big season that will probably include multiple playoff games.

8.2 - Doug Martin, RB, TAM - 29th RB drafted. Another rebound candidate who could be great value. Finished as RB #3 in this format in 2015, and all offseason reports have been very strong. Will miss 3 games to open the season, but could earn some of that back in the playoffs if Tampa can earn 1 more win this season.

9.15 - Kenny Britt, WR, CLE - 57th WR drafted. Finished as WR #31 last season in 15 games, playing in the worst offense in the league (by points and yards). Takes the place of Pryor, who finished #23 in this format last season. WR Coleman should be improved, but second leading CLE receiver TE Barnidge is gone, replaced by a rookie, so those things should largely offset. Meanwhile, CLE has upgraded its OL and probably its QB play. No playoffs, but outstanding value here IMO.

10.2 - Jaguars, TMQB, JAX - 23rd TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #15 last season after finishing #6 in 2015. Bortles played through multiple injuries last season, so he could be better. His targets should be better/healthier. the running game should be upgraded, which could in turn help the passing game. Solid value here, even with no chance at playoff points. More importantly, letting this position slide to the 11/12 round turn could have dropped 50-150 fantasy points, and I didn't want to take that risk.

11.15 - Marqise Lee, WR, JAX - Back to back JAX picks... :mellow:. 66th WR drafted. Had a minor breakout season in 2016 - finished as WR #44, and was WR #22 in the second half of the regular season. As noted above, Bortles could be healthier and thus better this season. Hurns missed 5 games last season, which helped. Good upside for this draft position, despite no playoffs.

12.2 - Matt Prater, PK, DET - 9th PK drafted. Finished as PK #5 last season and plays home games in a dome. Could get playoff points. Anticipated a PK run before my next pick, so wanted to draft my first and be in position to draft my second at the 13/14 turn to avoid getting stuck with a one of the PKs at risk for losing his job.

:popcorn: 

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Nice pick of Kenny Stills JWB he was on the short list.

The last 10 or so picks I have seen Booker, Zay Jones, Stills and Vernon Davis come off the board.. all players I was hoping might make it back to my next picks.

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On 7/26/2017 at 1:08 PM, Anarchy99 said:

1.03 - Antonio Brown (WR1)
Probably the safest pick there is. Almost a mortal lock for at least 100-1200-10 with upside for way more and playoff points. Averaged 374 points over the past 4 seasons. Would have taken him first overall.

2.14 - Brandin Cooks (WR11)
I am not concerned that there are a lot of mouths to feed. NE didn't need him and gave up a first to acquire him. All the evidence that I have seen reflects Cooks having a very good year with upside that others may dispute. If either Gronk or Edelman goes down (not exactly all that far fetched), Cooks could jump up to 100-1400-12 (or Brown-like numbers) with playoff points.

I don't see him doing worse than he did in NOS but he will likely have 3 more games played this year. If he produced at the same level as the Saints, that would put him around 300 points (or WR8 last year). I took him at WR11 (but I think he will produce somewhat better than that).

3.03 - DeMarco Murray (RB11)
I don't love Murray, but he should still produce around where I drafted him. I don't see him getting almost 350 touches again in the regular season like last year, but the Titans stand a decent chance of getting a playoff game or two. I took him at RB11. He ranked 7th last year. I wanted at least one decent RB, as the wait-forever-to-draft-running-backs strategy can lead to a really weak group of backs. Putrid, in fact.

4.14 - Colts TMQB (TMQB9)
Not a huge Colts fan (shocker) but not many TMQB's can score 500 points in a season, and this is one of them. Things sound a little precarious with Luck's shoulder right now, but this could be a monumental boost to my scoring if the real Luck shows up and stays healthy. Of course, he could be hurt all year and we could be watching Scott Tolzien most of the season. In which case my chances of winning drop dramatically.

5.03 - Jack Doyle (TE13)
Tight end run of 5 TE's in the 10-12 picks before me. Lots of picks forthcoming before my next pick, so I wanted to snag at least one decent one. With Allen traded to NE, one would think Doyle will see more targets, and the Colts seem to be in the mix to win the division. I initially didn't love this pick, but it's grown on me a little.

6.14 - Mike Gillislee (RB24)
The Pats will forget they had Blount early and often this year. Would be pretty surprised if he didn't get double digit TD's.

7.03 - Jeremy Maclin (WR36)
As posted earlier, BAL tops in attempts and tons of targets available.

8,14 - Pierre Garcon (WR45)
See Maclin, just on a worse team . . . but with Shanahan.

9.03 - Eric Decker (WR47)
I expect he will be a starter and has a shot at an extra game or two.

10.14 - Rob Kelley (RB44)
Not expecting much, but for now  he is the starter and RB44 isn't a high bar to reach (last year 87.60 points). Mostly dreck left at RB.

11.03 - Matt Bryant (PK6)
Last year's top scoring kicker returns to what should again be a playoff team on an offense that should score a lot of points again.

12.12 - Broncos TMQB (TMQB19)
Should be a little better than last year. Mostly took them out of spite to prevent Freak from taking them.

13.03 - Sebastian Janikowski (PK19)
Would have ranked much better if Carr hadn't gotten hurt.

I certainly liked this team better yesterday given that Luck might start the season on the PUP list.

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On 7/26/2017 at 0:23 PM, nittanylion said:

I'll think back on this Draft as the one where Bell went 9th, and I picked 8th, so I had the last chance to get him. With our scoring rules and League format, RB's are all about total yards from scrimmage and TD's, with a nod to playing extra games. 16+ games worth of Bell vs the Steelers 2017 schedule is a frightening thing to consider. Eight of us (well 6, at least - I think Gronk and DJ were the 'correct' 1/2 overall selections) will be evaluating our decisions for quite some time.

1.08: Mike Evans, WR Bucs - I consider Evans to be the 'safest' elite level WR in 2017, just a shade ahead of Nelson. I grow increasingly concerned about Big Ben's home/road splits impacting Brown, Julio's foot, AJG's injuries, Andrew Luck (Hilton) and Beckham for reasons I'll discuss later. I'm not ready to call Michael Thomas or Cooper elite. I predict Evans will be the statistical leader at WR in 2017.

2.09: Jay Ajayi, RB Dolphins - 25th overall pick, thought he should have gone earlier, but he was the last remaining back I have in my sub-DJ/LevB/Zeke tier, so I passed on receptions to gain what I hope is a positional advantage at RB - total yards from scrimmage/TD's/moderate chance at postseason. Did what I felt I had to do.

3.08: Davante Adams, WR Packers - Owned Adams in 2014, traded him away in 2015. After watching 2016, I'm sold, and have Jordy-lite expectations. Should outscore plenty of NFL #1's as Packers #2. Checks all the boxes, including potential 3-4 game postseason strong possibility. Rodgers is one of few that can support more than 1 elite-level WR, and he's made it into the circle of trust. 16-Teamer, he's a borderline 1 and getting him in the middle of Rd 3 screamed value to me. Considered Crabtree. Didn't want 2 Dolphins, so Landry out. Too early to take Fitz, Pryor or Tate, who were leading my next tier.

4.09 Ty Montgomery, RB Packers - Knew I'd be losing ground at QB/TE if I went RB here, but picking in the middle is sometimes a blessing, and as I projected ahead, I felt pretty good about what would still be available at 5.08. I'm not worried about the backs they drafted. Hell, they had to do something at the position with Lacy and Starks gone. Monty grew on me as a RB last year, and with an offseason to prepare, well, I'm a big fan of Stanford kids and their football IQ's. Watching him, I agreed with commentators who said he had a RB body, with WR skills. I think he generates a ton of yards, given it's the Packers, there's plenty of opportunity for TD's, and postseason play is almost a given.

I like where I'm at right now, but that's probably going to change over the next few rounds.

You can't always get what you wa-ant...

5.08: Austin Hooper, TE Falcons - I don't like to be compelled (forced) into making picks, but in these 16-Team snakes, it's going to happen sooner or later, and likely multiple times, and w/ our QB and TE Scoring Rules, when I selected Montgomery at 4.09, I put myself in a position where waiting on QB/TE forced me to address them at the expense of building depth at RB/WR. Using a 'last, best' approach, I felt getting Hooper at TE16 offered value above draft position. I have him in a bucket with a bunch of other TE from 8-20 that's a jumble. I think he's much more likely to finish towards the top of that group than the bottom, and there's a possibility of extra games. TE was far more scarce than QB at that point, so I prioritized it, but by so doing, I missed out on Cousins, Rivers, Cam and Stafford, one of whom I was hoping would fall to 6.09.

6.09: TMQB Giants - Not the worst outcome, I guess. Still got a QB with a negligible running game and plenty of weapons, including new, strong red zone options in Marshall and Engram. Extra game possibilities. I hate that simpering #### of his when he makes a mistake (Eli). Boy, did I miss out on a lot of depth by making this selection, especially at RB, where some nice aggregators, TD scorers went after I selected Eli. Looking back, I guess I could have waited, because only the Red Rifle got picked between my selection of Eli and my next pick at 10.08...but the Red Rifle was really who I wanted to pair with Eli, and maybe I wouldn't have had either, then would have had to have selected Palmer and paired someone lesser, with him. Oh, well.

7.08: TMQB Cardinals - I am a massive believer in a 2017 rebound for Carson Palmer, as he goes out with a bang. I'd better be right, because again I passed up some quality depth at RB/WR to acquire him...but I really see a degree of separation between what I expect out of him, and what I expect out of the others remaining in the pool. I'm not saying I absolutely HAD to have him, but ultimately, I drafted like that, didn't I? I have to be right about Palmer to justify what I did here, but then, I really have to be right about drafting Montgomery at 4.09 to justify picks 5-8...hmm. Probably not good. Lots of weapons, especially with a healthy John Brown, and playoff games a possibility.

8.07: Evan Engram, TE Giants - Given the road I had chosen to go down, I was pleased to see Engram here. We all know about Rookie TE, but with each passing day, I'm seeing more of a glorified slot WR in Engram, and not a true TE, and he's sure a fella who can make his presence felt in the Red Zone. With every passing Round, my top 4 (Evans/Ajayi/Adams/Monty) become more important. Yikes, I sure hope Ajayi is OK. I can get extra games out of Engram.

At this point, I have 2QB/2RB/2WR/2TE. A lot has to go right for this to work out. Probably too much. TD's are randpm. I need lots of them.

9.08: Ted Ginn, WR Saints - Time to backfill at RB/WR. Should get some big games out of Ginn. If I'm not mistaken, I actually thought I saw some development as a WR last year. Can't argue with the offense producing yards. That's how I have to make up for neglecting important things for more important things for 4 straight rounds. He's the right kind of WR for what I'm trying to do, if he hits. Brees needs a Devery Henderson. I need a Brandon Cooks. He's my WR3 so I need him to be at least WR48. That's probably a stretch, but it could be close.

10.07: Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers - I'll take him as a depth RB3 having waited so long. Most of what was left at RB was PPR types, I was pleased to find a potential 'basis scoring' type still around. Cam will eat, but outside of that, particularly with this League's non-ppr RB scoring, is there really going to be much difference in the yardage/TD aggregates between McCaffrey (5.16) and Stewart (10.07)? I don't think so. Not this year, at least. Cam appears to be morphing more into a QB each year, as well, and if that continues, the RB's should logically benefit. I'm feeling a little better, I guess.

11.08: Tavon Austin, WR Rams - OK, I'm excited again. Big McVay guy. Boy genius with something to prove. Has two playmakers at his disposal in Gurley and Austin that must produce to get the most out of Goff at this point, I think, and open things up for Woods/Kupp/Higbee. I think the options are going to be limited in year 1 of implementation, and should funnel through the most skilled/talented players, as he sees what tools he has to work with. I think Austin is more than a gadget player, and with Lance Dunbar now banged up, I see a more dynamic overall role.

12.09: Chris Boswell, PK Steelers - Time to take a dip in the PK pool before it dried up. Drafted as PK15, ranked as PK12. I'll take it.

13.08: JJ Nelson, WR Cardinals - Knew he was there when I took Boswell, and kinda had to clench a little when I pulled the trigger on PK, hoping he'd fall back to me, given how I'd had to adjust post Rounds 5-8, but he fits the mold of Ginn/Austin. Kinda like what I'm putting together here at WR3BC. Could play extra games.Has a role in a hypothetically prolific passing offense that could, and did expand last year when John Brown was out, which could happen again. His skills are a big part of the Arians scheme, and a rebounding Carson will be dropping some bombs. Well, if Carson rebounds. As previously stated, I'm on the side that says he does. Go me.

14.09: D/ST Panthers - Good juxtaposition of D/ST12, ranked D/ST8. Like Boswell, dipped in the pool before I hit concrete. Important given what this Team is morphing into.

QB Giants, Cardinals

RB Ajayi, Monty, Stewart

WR Evans, Adams, Ginn, Austin, Nelson

TE Hooper, Engram

PK Boswell - D/ST Panthers

Still need a RB, FLX, PK and D/ST. Weird Team. 3 separate drafts in 1: WR/RB/WR/RB...TE/QB/QB/TE...backfill, PK, D/ST. I'm intrigued by this squad. Not optimistic, but intrigued to see how it plays out. More intrigued than I was after 8 Rounds, at least. Too much has to go right, but I think I was able to mine better value than I expected down the road. I really have to be right about my Top 4. Really, really, really have to be right about Ty Montgomery owning that RB1 spot for the Pack. Stanford. Go Cardinal.

 

 

 

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