2017 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

• Does J Conner still belong on the Candidate's List?
  

• TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he is rostered in most leagues but if he isn't...
  
• ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
  
• PIT James Conner - Does anyone have a link or links to opinions on this guy? PIT produces such good RB production that simply by virtue of being the PIT RB (if there is a Bell injury) that I am leaving him in the King Maker list but to be honest I know nothing about him
  
• NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
  
• SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense + Hyde has been doing well
  
• BUF M Tolbert - per @Chaka : McCoy nursing groin injury.  Still expected to play but definitely worth monitoring.
  
• LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley - I moved him to the Candidate List as he is a favorite of Blooms as a Lotto ticket
  

• DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
  
• PIT Terrell Watson? (instead of James Conner)?
  
• OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey :  it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes - per @Stompin' Tom Connors : I don't think there is a lottery ticket behind Lynch in Oakland. While I think Richard has more spark and is a little more dynamic so far, Washington is a decent talent and if Lynch goes down, pretty sure it would be a pure split backfield with these two, a 50/50 timeshare with FB Olawale sprinkled in on short yardage/stripe carries.
  
• IND M Mack - has missed practices this past week (the week leading up to week 4)
  
• IND Matt Jones
  
• PHI W Smallwood - Posted 12 attempts for 71 yards in week 3 after Sproles went down
  
• PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes - @Chaka : http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/09/15/donnell-pumphrey-tears-hamstring-in-practice-out-indefinitely/
  
• PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
  
• TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
  
• KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt. - UPDATE SEP 9 per @Statorama - Watch for West to get dropped in a lot of leagues (with Hunt's performance), worth stashing given how good the o-line looked Thursday.
  
• WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston  
  
• HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog  
  
• DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per  @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• DEN D Booker - per @One : I went back, watched all his carries/catches from 2016 and came away more impressed than I expected to.  Booker can run with power and his hands are great.  My rational is ...Year 2,  looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury.  Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16),  will help the vision issues he had last season.  Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles.  Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS.  He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
  
• DAL A Morris
  
• DAL D MacFadden
  
• CIN J Hill - per @QuizGuy66 : only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues...
  
• NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
  
• CLE Duke Johnson - suggested by @Hankmoody
  
• DET Dwayne Washington - suggested by @Deaddawg
  
• JAX Chris Ivory - suggested by @Mr. Irrelevant and @Dr. Dan
  
• BAL Collins - suggested by @Weebs210 : looked more explosive on his six carries than West or Allen have in their whole career - and this from @davearm :  It looked to me in those clips that Cleveland was getting a lot of penetration, and Collins had to run through a lot of trash in the backfield on most of those runs.  Unless I'm mistaken, the Browns don't have some fearsome front 7 that's really tough to run against.  Makes me concerned for what will happen when Baltimore faces a defense that actually is strong against the run.  I'd also be concerned about how Collins is used in unfavorable game scripts.  It's one thing to get a bunch of run with West injured and a double digit lead in the second half.  It's another to get meaningful work when the Ravens are trailing in the second half.  I think someone else above said Collins isn't much of a receiver.  He could become invisible.  Best case, he completely usurps the West role, the Ravens defense keeps games close such that they don't have to abandon the run, and Collins balls out.  There's definitely high RB2 potential if all of those things come together.
  
• GB's BACK FIELD IN GENERAL - per @Chaka :  ...Jones had 11 more catches in college (with a slightly lower Y/C), point being it isn't like BYU didn't trust Williams in the passing game.  We really don't know much about them as players from the blurbs coming out of OTAs and TC, written by people trying to catch eyeballs more than provide great analysis.  My opinion is that, in the event of a Montgomery injury it's gonna be a full blown committee between Williams, Jones and Rip.  However the good thing about McCarthy is that, unlike a lot of coaches, he may actually settle on one back to be the lead but I doubt it happens until he rotates them for a couple weeks.  IMO picking the guy behind Monty feels like a dart throw more than anything. And please see @Dr. Dan 's excellent synopsis on the GB backfield in this thread - page 3 posted Sep 15
  
• GB Devante Mays - With both Ty Mont and J Williams getting hurt this past Thur Sep 29th, GB is down to A Jones and D Mays so I added Mays to cover all the bases in GB's high producing offense - per @Dr. Dan : Williams looked awful in preseason too. Jones and Mays looked incredible (by comparison) AND Mays is a legitimate threat, but I'm not sure he's passed Jones. I like Mays second. Williams last. Mays looked really really good in preseason. 
  
• NE Rex Burkhead - Currently has an injury and may be out tomorrow Oct 1 - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists. 
  

• GB Aaron Jones - Took over when Ty Mont and J Wms left the game with injuries - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role - per @Dr. Dan : Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams and this from @Hartliner : Aaron passed the eyeball test and both other backs now have injuries. Gonna be watching injury reports, but may go crazy on him with a large FAAB bid. So far J.W. Has a knee sprain that could linger couple of weeks and also heard TY's ribs arent as bad as first thought and he could play week 5. However I think it still opens the door. This seems like a good lotto ticket that is about to be ready to hit.
  
• NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
  
• NE James White - because any back on NE could be a Season Changer if he becomes "the last man standing"
  
• FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
  
• NE M Gillislee
  
• KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
  
• CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
  
• ARI - David Johnson's Backup:  Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington or Chris Johnson ? In Bloom's On The Couch (Tue Sep 12) he said that the ARI OL looks "tired" so perhaps the answer is "no one" - we have seen 2 weeks of ARI sans David Johnson and no-one has stepped up to be a King Maker
  
• TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season? - He has started TBB's 1st two games but is not looking like a King Maker
  
• SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
  
• GB Jamaal Williams - Knee injury sustained Thur Sep 28th - per  @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles Aaron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
  
• SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per  @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
  

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK, BUF
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A"   in run blocking:  : CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
  

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A" in run blocking:  CLE, WAS, TEN
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A-" in run blocking:  CHI
  

BobbyLayne said:

@daylight About time for a bi-monthly update?

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daylight said:

Waaaaaaaay overdue update - Post Week 7.  My apologies for the lack of updates in recent weeks.  Moved some guys out of the Candidate List as they should be rostered in all formats by now:  Kamara and J White NE.  D Henry really should be on the Too Late List but I just can't move him off the Candidate List - he is only owned in 74% of ESPN leagues.

Questions for the group: 

• Does J Conner still belong on the Candidate's List?
  

Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is the list, NOT ranked:

• PIT James Conner - Does anyone have a link or links to opinions on this guy? PIT produces such good RB production that simply by virtue of being the PIT RB (if there is a Bell injury) that I am leaving him in the King Maker list but to be honest I know nothing about him
  

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JFS171 said:

 I personally disagree with @Stompin' Tom Connors about Watson's burst.  Watson posted nearly identical workout numbers to Kareem Hunt -- in fact, Watson's 10-yard split and 40-yard time are faster than Hunt's.  His vertical was 1" less, but his broad was 4" better, and Watson performed his workout 20 lbs heavier, at 236 lbs compared to Hunt's 216 lbs.  

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Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Thanks, JFS, always welcome contrary opinions. I do find it interesting that you compared him to Hunt, though, who in scouting reports coming into the NFL also was called out for average burst and acceleration. Also think that Watson has similar skills in initial jump-cutting that is a staple of Hunt's game, and both are hard to bring down.

But just calling like I see them -- they are both solid power backs, and Hunt is proof you can turn that into dominance at this level with the right pieces around you. But I don't think anyone would call either back a speed merchant.

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JFS171 said:

@daylight - just my 2 cents:

Charcandrick West belongs in the Kingmakers list.  Reid hasn't really used committees in KC, and if Hunt were to be injured, we've seen West produce at a high level.  I don't think Akeem Hunt would take much work - West would get all he could handle.

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Ekeler belongs on the list somewhere, and probably as a kingmaker.  He's starting to produce in the limited touches he's getting, and Gordon has one of the highest usage rates of any RB in the league ... plus we've seen Gordon injured before on heavy workloads.  If he goes down again, and Ekeler gets 80% of that, he's going to be hugely valuable.

Terrell Watson may deserve a spot next to Connor.  I'm not suggesting Connor wouldn't be the lead back if Bell went down, BUT there are rumblings that Watson is carving a role for himself as a short yardage specialist for Pittsburgh.  If Connor gets the between the 20s work, but Watson gets the red zone work ... well, Watson may end up more valuable.  I personally disagree with @Stompin' Tom Connors about Watson's burst.  Watson posted nearly identical workout numbers to Kareem Hunt -- in fact, Watson's 10-yard split and 40-yard time are faster than Hunt's.  His vertical was 1" less, but his broad was 4" better, and Watson performed his workout 20 lbs heavier, at 236 lbs compared to Hunt's 216 lbs.  

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I echo the sentiments on Malcom Brown being a kingmaker.  Gurley's getting used a ton ... which unfortunately increases the chances of injury.  Brown can play, and is pretty clearly second in line.

Also, Jonathan Williams isn't a FA -- he's getting paid $30K a week to be on the Broncos' practice squad (which is nearly what starting QB Trevor Siemian is getting paid).  For context, the NFL minimum for a practice squad player is $5700 per week.  His salary (excluding signing bonus) is actually higher than Henderson's.  He's only getting paid $30K less in salary than Booker.  It's part of why I think the Broncos backfield may be a real mess if CJA gets injured.  Charles is still there, but seems to have a defined role.  Booker has become a sort of pseudo satellite back for them.  Henderson looked great in the preseason, but he's also an extremely old rookie, and Williams, younger than all of them by more than a full year, is getting paid a whole, whole lot to bide his time on the practice squad.  

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JFS171 said:

@daylight - just my 2 cents:

Charcandrick West belongs in the Kingmakers list.  Reid hasn't really used committees in KC, and if Hunt were to be injured, we've seen West produce at a high level.  I don't think Akeem Hunt would take much work - West would get all he could handle.

Ekeler belongs on the list somewhere, and probably as a kingmaker.  He's starting to produce in the limited touches he's getting, and Gordon has one of the highest usage rates of any RB in the league ... plus we've seen Gordon injured before on heavy workloads.  If he goes down again, and Ekeler gets 80% of that, he's going to be hugely valuable.

Terrell Watson may deserve a spot next to Connor.  I'm not suggesting Connor wouldn't be the lead back if Bell went down, BUT there are rumblings that Watson is carving a role for himself as a short yardage specialist for Pittsburgh.  If Connor gets the between the 20s work, but Watson gets the red zone work ... well, Watson may end up more valuable.  I personally disagree with @Stompin' Tom Connors about Watson's burst.  Watson posted nearly identical workout numbers to Kareem Hunt -- in fact, Watson's 10-yard split and 40-yard time are faster than Hunt's.  His vertical was 1" less, but his broad was 4" better, and Watson performed his workout 20 lbs heavier, at 236 lbs compared to Hunt's 216 lbs.  

I echo the sentiments on Malcom Brown being a kingmaker.  Gurley's getting used a ton ... which unfortunately increases the chances of injury.  Brown can play, and is pretty clearly second in line.

Also, Jonathan Williams isn't a FA -- he's getting paid $30K a week to be on the Broncos' practice squad (which is nearly what starting QB Trevor Siemian is getting paid).  For context, the NFL minimum for a practice squad player is $5700 per week.  His salary (excluding signing bonus) is actually higher than Henderson's.  He's only getting paid $30K less in salary than Booker.  It's part of why I think the Broncos backfield may be a real mess if CJA gets injured.  Charles is still there, but seems to have a defined role.  Booker has become a sort of pseudo satellite back for them.  Henderson looked great in the preseason, but he's also an extremely old rookie, and Williams, younger than all of them by more than a full year, is getting paid a whole, whole lot to bide his time on the practice squad.  

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SaintsInDome2006 said:

Any thoughts on a short list at this point?

It seems to me Aaron Jones is the leader at the turn, followed by:

- Dion Lewis.

- Foreman.

- Darkwa.

I would also throw in David Johnson himself, in terms of being a trade target.

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• TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he is rostered in most leagues but if he isn't... it's hard for me to move him to the "Too Late List" as every source I read mentions him first as the Lotto Ticket to own
  
• ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
  
• PIT James Conner - see @Stompin' Tom Connors post in this thread dated Tue. Oct. 24th for an excellent write up on Conner (and supported by @JFS171)
  
• NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
  
• SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense + Hyde has been doing well
  
• BUF M Tolbert - per @Chaka : McCoy nursing groin injury.  Still expected to play but definitely worth monitoring.
  
• LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley - a favorite of Blooms as a Lotto ticket
  
• KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt. - UPDATE SEP 9 per @Statorama - Watch for West to get dropped in a lot of leagues (with Hunt's performance), worth stashing given how good the o-line looked... MOVED TO THE CANDIDATE LIST OCT 29TH - with @JFS171 saying belongs in the Kingmakers list.  Reid hasn't really used committees in KC, and if Hunt were to be injured...
  
• HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog  - moved to the Candidates list per @Ilov80s
  

• PIT Terrell Watson - campaigned for by @JFS171 saying (possibly) a short yardage specialist for Pittsburgh.  If Connor gets the between the 20s work, but Watson gets the red zone work ... well, Watson may end up more valuable
  
• LAC Austin Ekeler - suggested by @Deaddawg saying: He has shown relatively well in limited touches and has surpassed Brandon Oliver in LA. for the backup role. He has pretty good athletics and a cool back story.
  
• DEN Jonathan Williams - re-added to the Honorable list based on @JFS171 saying (he) isn't a FA -- he's getting paid $30K a week to be on the Broncos' practice squad (which is nearly what starting QB Trevor Siemian is getting paid).  For context, the NFL minimum for a practice squad player is $5700 per week.  His salary (excluding signing bonus) is actually higher than Henderson's.  He's only getting paid $30K less in salary than Booker.  It's part of why I think the Broncos backfield may be a real mess if CJA gets injured.  Charles is still there, but seems to have a defined role.  Booker has become a sort of pseudo satellite back for them.  Henderson looked great in the preseason, but he's also an extremely old rookie, and Williams, younger than all of them by more than a full year, is getting paid a whole, whole lot to bide his time on the practice squad.- ALTHOUGH @Biabreakable offered a different opinion:  That said I don't find your salary argument to be very compelling. Like any market, teams will pay what they need to pay to secure the services of the player, that does not mean they view the player they are paying more as better than others they are paying less. In my view Charles and Booker are obviously ahead of Williams in the pecking order should Anderson not be available, and Henderson played well for them in the preseason so I would expect him to be ahead of Williams as well.
  
• NYJ MCGUIRE, ELIJAH - added by me - would love to hear opinions on this guy
  
• SEA MCKISSIC, J.D. - added by me - would love to hear opinions on this guy
  
• JAX TJ Yeldon - suggested by @Diamond
  
• DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
  
• OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey :  it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes - per @Stompin' Tom Connors : I don't think there is a lottery ticket behind Lynch in Oakland. While I think Richard has more spark and is a little more dynamic so far, Washington is a decent talent and if Lynch goes down, pretty sure it would be a pure split backfield with these two, a 50/50 timeshare with FB Olawale sprinkled in on short yardage/stripe carries.
  
• IND M Mack - has missed practices this past week (the week leading up to week 4)
  
• IND Matt Jones
  
• PHI W Smallwood - Posted 12 attempts for 71 yards in week 3 after Sproles went down
  
• PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes - @Chaka : http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/09/15/donnell-pumphrey-tears-hamstring-in-practice-out-indefinitely/
  
• PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
  
• TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
  
• WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston  
  
• DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per  @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• DEN D Booker - per @One : I went back, watched all his carries/catches from 2016 and came away more impressed than I expected to.  Booker can run with power and his hands are great.  My rational is ...Year 2,  looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury.  Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16),  will help the vision issues he had last season.  Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles.  Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS.  He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
  
• DAL A Morris
  
• DAL D MacFadden
  
• NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
  
• CLE Duke Johnson - suggested by @Hankmoody
  
• DET Dwayne Washington - suggested by @Deaddawg
  
• JAX Chris Ivory - suggested by @Mr. Irrelevant and @Dr. Dan
  
• BAL Collins - suggested by @Weebs210 : looked more explosive on his six carries than West or Allen have in their whole career - and this from @davearm :  It looked to me in those clips that Cleveland was getting a lot of penetration, and Collins had to run through a lot of trash in the backfield on most of those runs.  Unless I'm mistaken, the Browns don't have some fearsome front 7 that's really tough to run against.  Makes me concerned for what will happen when Baltimore faces a defense that actually is strong against the run.  I'd also be concerned about how Collins is used in unfavorable game scripts.  It's one thing to get a bunch of run with West injured and a double digit lead in the second half.  It's another to get meaningful work when the Ravens are trailing in the second half.  I think someone else above said Collins isn't much of a receiver.  He could become invisible.  Best case, he completely usurps the West role, the Ravens defense keeps games close such that they don't have to abandon the run, and Collins balls out.  There's definitely high RB2 potential if all of those things come together.
  
• GB's BACK FIELD IN GENERAL - per @Chaka :  ...Jones had 11 more catches in college (with a slightly lower Y/C), point being it isn't like BYU didn't trust Williams in the passing game.  We really don't know much about them as players from the blurbs coming out of OTAs and TC, written by people trying to catch eyeballs more than provide great analysis.  My opinion is that, in the event of a Montgomery injury it's gonna be a full blown committee between Williams, Jones and Rip.  However the good thing about McCarthy is that, unlike a lot of coaches, he may actually settle on one back to be the lead but I doubt it happens until he rotates them for a couple weeks.  IMO picking the guy behind Monty feels like a dart throw more than anything. And please see @Dr. Dan 's excellent synopsis on the GB backfield in this thread - page 3 posted Sep 15
  
• GB Devante Mays - With both Ty Mont and J Williams getting hurt this past Thur Sep 29th, GB is down to A Jones and D Mays so I added Mays to cover all the bases in GB's high producing offense - per @Dr. Dan : Williams looked awful in preseason too. Jones and Mays looked incredible (by comparison) AND Mays is a legitimate threat, but I'm not sure he's passed Jones. I like Mays second. Williams last. Mays looked really really good in preseason. 
  
• NE Rex Burkhead - Currently has an injury and may be out tomorrow Oct 1 - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists. 
  

• GB Aaron Jones - Took over when Ty Mont and J Wms left the game with injuries - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role - per @Dr. Dan : Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams and this from @Hartliner : Aaron passed the eyeball test and both other backs now have injuries. Gonna be watching injury reports, but may go crazy on him with a large FAAB bid. So far J.W. Has a knee sprain that could linger couple of weeks and also heard TY's ribs arent as bad as first thought and he could play week 5. However I think it still opens the door. This seems like a good lotto ticket that is about to be ready to hit.
  
• NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
  
• NE James White - because any back on NE could be a Season Changer if he becomes "the last man standing"
  
• FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
  
• NE M Gillislee
  
• KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
  
• CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
  
• ARI - David Johnson's Backup:  Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington or Chris Johnson ? In Bloom's On The Couch (Tue Sep 12) he said that the ARI OL looks "tired" so perhaps the answer is "no one" - we have seen 2 weeks of ARI sans David Johnson and no-one has stepped up to be a King Maker
  
• TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season? - He has started TBB's 1st two games but is not looking like a King Maker
  
• SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
  
• GB Jamaal Williams - Knee injury sustained Thur Sep 28th - per  @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles Aaron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
  
• SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per  @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
  

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK, BUF
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A"   in run blocking:  : CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
  

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A" in run blocking:  CLE, WAS, TEN
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A-" in run blocking:  CHI
  

SaintsInDome2006 said:

Any thoughts on a short list at this point?

It seems to me Aaron Jones is the leader at the turn, followed by:

- Dion Lewis.

- Foreman.

- Darkwa.

I would also throw in David Johnson himself, in terms of being a trade target.

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NotSmart said:

I'm surprised Mack is in the Honorable Mention category. 

Is it mainly because Indy is so bad?

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Ilov80s said:

Foreman needs to be in the highest category IMO. He checks every box except receiving skills 

- Highly regarded prospect

- Workhorse size

- Good athlete

- The clear #2

- Has already earned the trust and PT from coaches

- Has produced and look good in opportunities

- Plays on a high scoring offense

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Ilov80s said:

Kamara is a weird situation. He has already hit obviously and is likely already a key component of a team in every league, every format. However, he still has massive upside. Ingram hasn't always been a favorite of his coaching staff and he's had quite a few injuries. There are a few different paths that lead Kamara to an even bigger role in the offense where he could become an RB1. 

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SaintsInDome2006 said:

Personally I think he will hit big runs eventually. He's got Armstead on the left & Ramczyk on the right.

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Ilov80s said:

Yeah...and one of those paths to more opportunities was Ingram losing 2 4th quarter fumbles 

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Ilov80s said:

Kamara is a weird situation. He has already hit obviously and is likely already a key component of a team in every league, every format. However, he still has massive upside. Ingram hasn't always been a favorite of his coaching staff and he's had quite a few injuries. There are a few different paths that lead Kamara to an even bigger role in the offense where he could become an RB1. 

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SaintsInDome2006 said:

Personally I think he will hit big runs eventually. He's got Armstead on the left & Ramczyk on the right.

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daylight said:

@SaintsInDome2006 & @Ilov80s - are you both saying that Kamara should not only be elevated off the Too Late List but promoted all the way to the Candidate List?

For reference, he is owned in 92% of ESPN leagues.

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JFS171 said:

@daylight I think McGuire is an interesting talent, but Forte and Powell are two roadblocks that will at least get partial work even if the other goes down.  I think there are better bets as lotto tickets, but in keeper/dynasty leagues, McGuire is worth a roster spot for sure.  I'm still not sure McGuire is fully the guy in 2018 or 2019 even, given Powell will still be around next year and teams often keep throwing darts at RBs.  

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One said:

@Cecil LammeyWe should see a larger role for Booker going forward Today Vance Joseph told me "He should get more opportunities” #FantasyFootball #Broncos

also,  anyone else notice how handsome Cecil looks in his new Twitter pic?

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zamboni said:

I'm hoping we get to see more of McGuire as the Jets keep falling farther out of the playoff picture. Forte is almost certainly gone after this year, and while Powell is a solid player, I don't think team brass sees him as a workhorse.

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One said:

@Cecil LammeyWe should see a larger role for Booker going forward Today Vance Joseph told me "He should get more opportunities” #FantasyFootball #Broncos

also, anyone else notice how handsome Cecil looks in his new Twitter pic?

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Ilov80s said:

McGuire isn't a workhorse either

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SameSongNDance said:

I think it's very telling that despite CJA ripping off chunks of yards DEN kept going back to Booker. Between Booker's pass catching chops and his usage in the RZ I actually think he has a fair amount of upside. I don't necessarily think he even needs CJA/Charles injuries to happen.

He's just straight up not very good.

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• TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he is rostered in most leagues but if he isn't... it's hard for me to move him to the "Too Late List" as every source I read mentions him first as the Lotto Ticket to own
  
• ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
  
• PIT James Conner - see @Stompin' Tom Connors post in this thread dated Tue. Oct. 24th for an excellent write up on Conner (and supported by @JFS171)
  
• NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
  
• SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense + Hyde has been doing well
  
• BUF M Tolbert - per @Chaka : McCoy nursing groin injury.  Still expected to play but definitely worth monitoring.
  
• LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley - a favorite of Blooms as a Lotto ticket
  
• KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt. - UPDATE SEP 9 per @Statorama - Watch for West to get dropped in a lot of leagues (with Hunt's performance), worth stashing given how good the o-line looked... MOVED TO THE CANDIDATE LIST OCT 29TH - with @JFS171 saying belongs in the Kingmakers list.  Reid hasn't really used committees in KC, and if Hunt were to be injured...
  
• HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog  - moved to the Candidates list per @Ilov80s
  
• NO Alvin Kamara - Moved him here to the Candidate List per the suggesting of @SaintsInDome2006, @Ilov80s and others - perhaps he's still not rostered in all leagues
  

• DAL Rod Smith - Added by me - In one of the "The Audible" podcasts from just prior to Week 9 the FootballGuys called Smith the most talented of the 3 headed monster behind Ezekiel Elliott
  
• PIT Terrell Watson - campaigned for by @JFS171 saying (possibly) a short yardage specialist for Pittsburgh.  If Connor gets the between the 20s work, but Watson gets the red zone work ... well, Watson may end up more valuable
  
• LAC Austin Ekeler - suggested by @Deaddawg saying: He has shown relatively well in limited touches and has surpassed Brandon Oliver in LA. for the backup role. He has pretty good athletics and a cool back story.
  
• DEN Jonathan Williams - re-added to the Honorable list based on @JFS171 saying (he) isn't a FA -- he's getting paid $30K a week to be on the Broncos' practice squad (which is nearly what starting QB Trevor Siemian is getting paid).  For context, the NFL minimum for a practice squad player is $5700 per week.  His salary (excluding signing bonus) is actually higher than Henderson's.  He's only getting paid $30K less in salary than Booker.  It's part of why I think the Broncos backfield may be a real mess if CJA gets injured.  Charles is still there, but seems to have a defined role.  Booker has become a sort of pseudo satellite back for them.  Henderson looked great in the preseason, but he's also an extremely old rookie, and Williams, younger than all of them by more than a full year, is getting paid a whole, whole lot to bide his time on the practice squad.- ALTHOUGH @Biabreakable offered a different opinion:  That said I don't find your salary argument to be very compelling. Like any market, teams will pay what they need to pay to secure the services of the player, that does not mean they view the player they are paying more as better than others they are paying less. In my view Charles and Booker are obviously ahead of Williams in the pecking order should Anderson not be available, and Henderson played well for them in the preseason so I would expect him to be ahead of Williams as well.
  
• NYJ MCGUIRE, ELIJAH - added by me
  
• SEA MCKISSIC, J.D. - added by me
  
• JAX TJ Yeldon - suggested by @Diamond
  
• JAX Chris Ivory - suggested by @Mr. Irrelevant and @Dr. Dan
  
• DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
  
• OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey :  it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes - per @Stompin' Tom Connors : I don't think there is a lottery ticket behind Lynch in Oakland. While I think Richard has more spark and is a little more dynamic so far, Washington is a decent talent and if Lynch goes down, pretty sure it would be a pure split backfield with these two, a 50/50 timeshare with FB Olawale sprinkled in on short yardage/stripe carries.
  
• IND M Mack - has missed practices this past week (the week leading up to week 4)
  
• IND Matt Jones
  
• PHI W Smallwood - Posted 12 attempts for 71 yards in week 3 after Sproles went down
  
• PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes - @Chaka : http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/09/15/donnell-pumphrey-tears-hamstring-in-practice-out-indefinitely/
  
• PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
  
• TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
  
• WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston  
  
• DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per  @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
  
• DEN D Booker - per @One : I went back, watched all his carries/catches from 2016 and came away more impressed than I expected to.  Booker can run with power and his hands are great.  My rational is ...Year 2,  looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury.  Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16),  will help the vision issues he had last season.  Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles.  Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS.  He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
  
• DAL A Morris
  
• DAL D MacFadden
  
• NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
  
• CLE Duke Johnson - suggested by @Hankmoody
  
• DET Dwayne Washington - suggested by @Deaddawg
  
• BAL Collins - suggested by @Weebs210 : looked more explosive on his six carries than West or Allen have in their whole career - and this from @davearm :  It looked to me in those clips that Cleveland was getting a lot of penetration, and Collins had to run through a lot of trash in the backfield on most of those runs.  Unless I'm mistaken, the Browns don't have some fearsome front 7 that's really tough to run against.  Makes me concerned for what will happen when Baltimore faces a defense that actually is strong against the run.  I'd also be concerned about how Collins is used in unfavorable game scripts.  It's one thing to get a bunch of run with West injured and a double digit lead in the second half.  It's another to get meaningful work when the Ravens are trailing in the second half.  I think someone else above said Collins isn't much of a receiver.  He could become invisible.  Best case, he completely usurps the West role, the Ravens defense keeps games close such that they don't have to abandon the run, and Collins balls out.  There's definitely high RB2 potential if all of those things come together.
  
• GB's BACK FIELD IN GENERAL - per @Chaka :  ...Jones had 11 more catches in college (with a slightly lower Y/C), point being it isn't like BYU didn't trust Williams in the passing game.  We really don't know much about them as players from the blurbs coming out of OTAs and TC, written by people trying to catch eyeballs more than provide great analysis.  My opinion is that, in the event of a Montgomery injury it's gonna be a full blown committee between Williams, Jones and Rip.  However the good thing about McCarthy is that, unlike a lot of coaches, he may actually settle on one back to be the lead but I doubt it happens until he rotates them for a couple weeks.  IMO picking the guy behind Monty feels like a dart throw more than anything. And please see @Dr. Dan 's excellent synopsis on the GB backfield in this thread - page 3 posted Sep 15
  
• GB Devante Mays - With both Ty Mont and J Williams getting hurt this past Thur Sep 29th, GB is down to A Jones and D Mays so I added Mays to cover all the bases in GB's high producing offense - per @Dr. Dan : Williams looked awful in preseason too. Jones and Mays looked incredible (by comparison) AND Mays is a legitimate threat, but I'm not sure he's passed Jones. I like Mays second. Williams last. Mays looked really really good in preseason. 
  
• NE Rex Burkhead - Currently has an injury and may be out tomorrow Oct 1 - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists. 
  

• GB Aaron Jones - Took over when Ty Mont and J Wms left the game with injuries - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role - per @Dr. Dan : Jones is extremely athletic and has gotten nothing but rave reviews from camp. he's a RB GB hasn't had in the Rodgers era. he's exciting to watch. he impresses me way more than Williams and this from @Hartliner : Aaron passed the eyeball test and both other backs now have injuries. Gonna be watching injury reports, but may go crazy on him with a large FAAB bid. So far J.W. Has a knee sprain that could linger couple of weeks and also heard TY's ribs arent as bad as first thought and he could play week 5. However I think it still opens the door. This seems like a good lotto ticket that is about to be ready to hit.
  
• NE James White - because any back on NE could be a Season Changer if he becomes "the last man standing"
  
• FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
  
• NE M Gillislee
  
• KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
  
• CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
  
• ARI - David Johnson's Backup:  Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington or Chris Johnson ? In Bloom's On The Couch (Tue Sep 12) he said that the ARI OL looks "tired" so perhaps the answer is "no one" - we have seen 2 weeks of ARI sans David Johnson and no-one has stepped up to be a King Maker
  
• TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season? - He has started TBB's 1st two games but is not looking like a King Maker
  
• SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
  
• GB Jamaal Williams - Knee injury sustained Thur Sep 28th - per  @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles Aaron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
  
• SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per  @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
  
• - *removed* J Hill from the Honorable and Candidate Lists as I agree with @QuizGuy66 above.
  

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK, BUF
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A"   in run blocking:  : CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
  

• O-Lines receiving an "A+" in run blocking:  DAL, OAK
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A" in run blocking:  CLE, WAS, TEN
  
• O-Lines receiving an "A-" in run blocking:  CHI
  

daylight said:

@SaintsInDome2006 & @Ilov80s - are you both saying that Kamara should not only be elevated off the Too Late List but promoted all the way to the Candidate List?

For reference, he is owned in 92% of ESPN leagues.

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msudaisy26 said:

Here is a name for 2018. Orleans Darkwa. I think he signs with the Patriots soon. Burkhead is already ailing, Michel is ailing and fumbling, White is just a pass catcher and Hill just went to IR. The Pats are adding someone. He is my guess. 

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Weebs210 said:

I see the Patriots adding  someone. My gut says they trade for Abdullah though.

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SameSongNDance said:

Abdullah isn't what they need, White does everything that Abdullah would do in this offense. They need a power back to replace Hill because Burkhead simply won't last in that role.

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TZMarkie said:

 Several of you guys have followed this thread, and its earlier version for a couple years now.

Its hard to believe, but its been either 2016 or 2015  since I originally said  "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season.....

It looks like "Daylight", the poster that continually updated this thread, with the help of several of us, hasn't been here on the board since DECEMBER 2017. 

Maybe he reappears, does anyone want to send him a PM through the board here???

Either way, if someone wants to take on the task of doing a new version of this thread, I will occasionally be around to chime in when I can. But I just can't commit to anything weekly due to personal reasons.

 I think I speak for a number of posters here, but this thread was one of the highlights of the board for me the last couple of years. Hopefully one of you can post, renew and adjust a newer version of this thread on a weekly basis. I might be able to help on occasion.

TZM

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SameSongNDance said:

Abdullah isn't what they need, White does everything that Abdullah would do in this offense. They need a power back to replace Hill because Burkhead simply won't last in that role.

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