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Fanduel Week 2 (1 Viewer)

KarmaPolice said:
I would also assume that not all positions are equal.  I am thinking TE and K are variable enough you might not be getting 3x from them much, so positions you can predict touches more might have to pick up the slack.  Just like 2x at Qb is not enough for cash, 3x might not be good enough for gpp. I am thinking Brady needs to be pushing 33pts or so.  What is that for stats - 4tds 350 yds or so? 
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sooted72 said:
i think there may be some faulty logic in here, but i do agree with the general principle that brady is going to need to go off to win a gpp.  hes gonna have to be qb1.  anything other than that and the people who went with the mid tier guys will all be equal at qb and have better players elsewhere.
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I've long held the belief that the "value" targets for cash and GPP aren't the same for every position. I think if you "just" get 3x at QB then you have ground to make up on most slates. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
I've long held the belief that the "value" targets for cash and GPP aren't the same for every position. I think if you "just" get 3x at QB then you have ground to make up on most slates. 
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Yep, how often are the TEs getting the 18 points or so they need to keep pace with 3x?.  Also, this is assuming that 180 will win a gpp, and I am guessing it's more than that most weeks? 

 
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Tennessee_ATO said:
I've long held the belief that the "value" targets for cash and GPP aren't the same for every position. I think if you "just" get 3x at QB then you have ground to make up on most slates. 
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yeah def agree.  and you were one of the people that helped me change the way i think about qb value in cash games.  its just that if brady is qb1 you have a shot to win gpps.  yes its harder bc you have to make up other positions to get there if its like 28 pts.  but likely you have a great shot at that by stacking anyway.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Yep, how often are the TEs getting the 18 points or so they need to keep pace with 3x?.  Also, this is assuming that 180 will win a gpp, and I am guessing it's more than that most weeks? 
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well the winners all had hooper and the outlaw last week.  did they both end up with 18+?  i dont remember but probably.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
FWIW, I see huge potential value in a guy like Rivers at $2200 less than Brady. 
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I've been propping Rivers all week but seemed I was the only one. Even most fantasy shows this morning have him in the 10-12 range.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Not sure you have to accurately predict it, just use it as a guide with what Dodds is saying.  

A 9k player needs 27-30pts.  That's a lot on FD.  8 catches, 120yds and 2tds is 28.  Does a stud Wr get that 25% of the time? If not, I think Dodds is saying don't play them at 25% ownership in a tourney.  I am guessing you could look at game logs if you want, or just use your gut. 

I think it's relevant this week with a couple 9+k guys looking to be the highest owned in Brady and Julio. 
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I agree its relevant.  I just think it's more of an intuitive thing versus a math thing.  It's intuitively obvious that Brady has a much higher probability to beat 3x versus the Saints than does Julio against the Packers.  Brady's chances are so much higher that I could care less if he's 25% owned versus Julio being 12.5% owned (fictional numbers).  I suppose its more relevant when comparing less obvious situations where player A and B have the same chance of success and very different ownerships.

 
I stripped Diggs and Thielen out of my lineups.  Should probably increase Steelers exposure and maybe consider a flyer on Keenum but whatever.

 
sooted72 said:
well the winners all had hooper and the outlaw last week.  did they both end up with 18+?  i dont remember but probably.
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Yep, they both had 19, and were cheap.  

I guess I am saying that if you had to bet on a 7k qb getting 25pts on the week for 3.5x or a 6k TE getting 18 for 3x, what would you choose.  On average I think you should expect more than 3x from your qbs and maybe rbs. 

In the end, it's still gambling and guessing and all the players count.  If you have Brady "only" get 27pts, but you also have the one D that gets 25 points and TE that has 20, you are just fine if he isn't at 3x if others are at 5x. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Yep, they both had 19, and were cheap.  

I guess I am saying that if you had to bet on a 7k qb getting 25pts on the week for 3.5x or a 6k TE getting 18 for 3x, what would you choose.  On average I think you should expect more than 3x from your qbs and maybe rbs. 

In the end, it's still gambling and guessing and all the players count.  If you have Brady "only" get 27pts, but you also have the one D that gets 25 points and TE that has 20, you are just fine if he isn't at 3x if others are at 5x. 
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yeah agree with all of that.

 
Lawrence Timmons went AWOL from Dolphins.  They already had a special teamer Mike Hull starting at one LB spot.  Fire up the Melvin Gordon train.  Big game coming.

 
Son of a B****  Had Maclin in a few of my lineups.  I thought he was a sneaky play...hurt on his first catch of the day.   :wall:

 
KarmaPolice said:
Curious why that is.  Just think Gordon gets the bulk of the work? 
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I'm all-in w/ Melvin in my cash. But Rivers can go off at any time. And he likes to sling it if he can. Like I said, no way for cash but the explosion potential is there. And at $7k all you need is mid-20's. 

 
Raging weasel said:
Sure glad I got off Palmer, he's awful.
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My Palmer-Fitz-Nelson stack is not looking so good.  Oh well, I only threw a $1 at it with some hope.  Still not completely dead with it as it has Gronk, Lynch, Elliott, Julio... This is why I don't play the tournaments typically.  My cash game lineups are currently doing quite well.  Many times I wished would have just thrown my cash lineup into a tourney. Wouldn't win, but could often could earn more than a double up if I would do it.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
It would appear that 15.8% are feeling pretty ok about their QB choice right now. 
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For sure.  Got to the level we said he needed to. 

I thought I would get more production from Ben, but I should have thought about changing him out too without Bradford, because it was a lot less likely he needed to keep passing. 

 
Having a good/great day in Yahoo.  I'm in 80/14,015 in their big tourney and 587/300,000 in their free tourney.

Fitzgerald preventing it from being a spectacular day.  

 
Wow I take Crabtree last week in nearly all my contests and he couldn't even get a red zone look, now 3 TD's.... Sigh.

 
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Looks like I should've gone more Brady!  Cousins was a complete dud, Ben wasn't great.  I had 5 Carr LUs, but only 2 with Crabtree and in one of those I have Zeke and his 2 points.  Still have a few cashing and hopefully will hang on for some +$ this week. 

Man, Seattle kinda sucks to start the year. 

 
Best gpp so far was a Carr one with Crabtree and Kearse coming back the other way.  Doing OK now at 148pts, but nobody left, so the winnings will whittle away with the Sunday night chalk. 

My current 2nd best one is my Siemian/Sanders stack at 120 with Nelson and Bryant to go tonight.  I didn't realize that the Dal/Denv game was only at halftime, so I thought I'd never say it, but Go Denver! Siemian is at .9%, and Sanders at 1.5%

 
Was wrong on Rivers,lesson learned. I'll take a glass of wine with my crow.

Bengals, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bills and Panthers all on my DNP list until I see them produce.

 
Raging weasel said:
Was wrong on Rivers,lesson learned. I'll take a glass of wine with my crow.
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He didn't kill you in cash, but I think people were hoping for a couple more tds to go with the yards in gpp.  Probably was better on DK though.  With most of my qbs I either got the tds  or yards, not both.  

 
Agree on some of those teams, but that's also the perfect time to take shots on guys like McCaffrey, Wilson, and AJGreen- when people have given up. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Agree on some of those teams, but that's also the perfect time to take shots on guys like McCaffrey, Wilson, and AJGreen- when people have given up. 
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I know that's what game theory says to do so may use a few in gpp but not in cash.

And yeah, can't really say Rivers had a bad day with 31/39 330+ and a TD. 

 
Need to trust my gut more.  Was really staring at Denver all week and shied away from CJA b/c I had a couple Siemian stacks and didn't want to go to crazy on that one.  That was definitely the home dog to target this week. 

 
A lot of effort to turn $50 into $65 lol.

Lots of missed opportunities.  Gronk dropped a second TD, Gillislee had one called back on a penalty, ditto Randall Cobb, etc.

I'll fire up a week 3 thread later if KP hasn't gotten to it already :D   I just peeked at the schedule and don't see a lot of good QB spots.

 
I will take a +week, but it's still frustrating watching those cash lines catch up on gpps during one game.  Started off winning $40, ended up winning $5.  $14 in, $18.50 out. 

Also, I know it's a small sample size, but I have had a bit of success with H2Hs the last two weeks, so it's not as scary as I thought.  I think out of 14 tried, I have won 12.  All I did was look for people in the $1 pool that just had at the max x3 by their name, and mostly did players that had just the one game.  Just figured I would have more success with them vs. somebody that had 50 entries.  

I could've also cashed in 50/50s, but just posting that I see how H2Hs would be worth it in the long run if you find yourself being close to the cash lines in 50/50s quite a bit. 

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
A lot of effort to turn $50 into $65 lol.

Lots of missed opportunities.  Gronk dropped a second TD, Gillislee had one called back on a penalty, ditto Randall Cobb, etc.

I'll fire up a week 3 thread later if KP hasn't gotten to it already :D   I just peeked at the schedule and don't see a lot of good QB spots.
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I was just thinking about it.

That's a good week, especially if you are focused on all gpp! 

 
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