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MLB 2018 (1 Viewer)

Raging weasel said:
Yeah, for some reason I can't get the hang of MLB cash lineups either. Usually get the SP but never the cheap nobodies that are 70% owned and put up points. And like you most of my guys are 20% or less.
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When I was learning about dfs and reading strategy articles last year I remember for choosing batters reading stuff like (keep in mind my memory could be incorrect): 

1.  Low K%, high BB%  guys

2.  High wOBA

3.  vs. crap pitchers

4.  batting order 

5.  platoon

6.  spread out the players (no more than 2 batters on a team)

I fully admit that I sometimes don't focus on #4 enough, but yeah, that would make sense for cash.   Then I look at the high scorers in my 50/50s and there are stacks, high K% guys like Story, and dudes going against stud SPs at a higher ownership % than the guys that I have trying to follow most of the rules above.  :shrug:

Most of the time for me it feels like I am OK with the lower end guys, but either pick the SP wrong or get the high priced superstar on his dud night - ie me joking I never get Harper or Arenado right.  

 
For early games:

Paxton/Ray/Wolters*/Carpenter/Villar/Arenado/Garcia/Martinez/HPerez/Pham

Paxton/Ray/Wolters*/Martinez/Villar/Garcia/Turner/Kiermaier/Ozuna/Pham

* assuming day game after night game means he'll be in, if not I'll swap him to Jett Bandy.

 
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Northern Voice said:
For early games:

Paxton/Ray/Wolters*/Carpenter/Villar/Arenado/Garcia/Martinez/HPerez/Pham

Paxton/Ray/Wolters*/Martinez/Villar/Garcia/Turner/Kiermaier/Ozuna/Pham

* assuming day game after night game means he'll be in, if not I'll swap him to Jett Bandy.
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I did one as well with higher SPs and didn't seem to be able to fit in any Coors options I liked besides Wolters.  LUs aren't out yet for Coors, so not sure what the pivot from him will be later.      

Paxton/McCullers Wolters Freeman Albies Garcia Turner Pham Span Goodwin

B/c I didn't have any Coors in my cash, I have a 25cent entry saved for Coors game stack.

 
KarmaPolice said:
I did one as well with higher SPs and didn't seem to be able to fit in any Coors options I liked besides Wolters.  LUs aren't out yet for Coors, so not sure what the pivot from him will be later.      

Paxton/McCullers Wolters Freeman Albies Garcia Turner Pham Span Goodwin

B/c I didn't have any Coors in my cash, I have a 25cent entry saved for Coors game stack.
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With Rockies lineup not out yet, tempted to do last minute stack myself but I hate all but the top 3 pitchers for the early games.

 
Northern Voice said:
Yeah that's what I'm saying, I figure to get a Rockies stack in I'd have to use at least one of the bum pitchers and I don't want to do it.
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:bag: I didn't see the "but" part of the all but statement when I read that.  

Since I just do the 25cent stuff mostly, I force myself to dumpster dive and go 1-2 scrub SPs in gpps to get a stack I like.  Today I have that Chirinos guy paired with a stud in 2 LUs. 

If it's a bigger slate and I like enough of the options, I will try 3 gpps and do 1 with 2 studs 1 with 2 scrubs and 1 with one of each to get myself to try some different stacks and bats. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Gee, you are missing out on McCullers' fantastic day!  
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There must be quite a few people on McCullers and other bad pitching performances today, because my lineups are really not great (at 80.2 and 82.2 with 23 PIR) and they're both in line to cash, with Robbie Ray able to pitch me up (or off) the list still.

 
KarmaPolice said:
When I was learning about dfs and reading strategy articles last year I remember for choosing batters reading stuff like (keep in mind my memory could be incorrect): 

1.  Low K%, high BB%  guys

2.  High wOBA

3.  vs. crap pitchers

4.  batting order 

5.  platoon

6.  spread out the players (no more than 2 batters on a team)
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1 and 2.  There's no penalty for K's in DFS, so I don't know why k-rate for hitters would matter. I agree that high BB/OBP/wOBA guys profile well but I don't have a problem with high strikeout guys if they are still getting on base at a decent clip.

3. I always do this

4. I do this with #3 and see where I can find the guys who are making <$3300 and are hitting at the top of the order and fill those spots (and SP's first) and see how much I have left to spend on bigger stars.

5. I use platoon advantage in terms of getting lefty/righty mashers in the lineup (Pearce, Renfroe, Granderson come to mind) but for the most part, I think this is taken care of by #4 - the manager is going to have his best OBP guys at the top of the order and so , I don't pay attention beyond the right/left specialists, I think batting order is a better indicator.

6. I obviously don't do this at all, I don't like to go heavy on any one team but I want multiple players on multiple teams, I think this spreads out my exposure to save against the wasted lineup when the big stack fails but also allows me to not be left behind when the players who do the huge stacks hit on their games - at least I have a pretty decent piece of it too.

 
Northern Voice said:
There must be quite a few people on McCullers and other bad pitching performances today, because my lineups are really not great (at 80.2 and 82.2 with 23 PIR) and they're both in line to cash, with Robbie Ray able to pitch me up (or off) the list still.
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Yeah, he is bigly owned which helps.  I am at 110, so should be my first + slate in a few days.  

Harder on FD without that other SP to help get points.  I am <1pt from the 50/50 cash line, but currently winning my 5man and cashing my gpp. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
When I was learning about dfs and reading strategy articles last year I remember for choosing batters reading stuff like (keep in mind my memory could be incorrect): 

1.  Low K%, high BB%  guys

2.  High wOBA

3.  vs. crap pitchers

4.  batting order 

5.  platoon

6.  spread out the players (no more than 2 batters on a team)

I fully admit that I sometimes don't focus on #4 enough, but yeah, that would make sense for cash.   Then I look at the high scorers in my 50/50s and there are stacks, high K% guys like Story, and dudes going against stud SPs at a higher ownership % than the guys that I have trying to follow most of the rules above.  :shrug:

Most of the time for me it feels like I am OK with the lower end guys, but either pick the SP wrong or get the high priced superstar on his dud night - ie me joking I never get Harper or Arenado right.  
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3 and 4 are what I mostly go by. Up until last year players on FD lost points for Ks and outs.

I have the same super power as you- whoever I spend up on rarely pays off. Like the last 2 days Arenado has had about the best matchup he could have and has done diddly.

 
Northern Voice said:
1 and 2.  There's no penalty for K's in DFS, so I don't know why k-rate for hitters would matter. I agree that high BB/OBP/wOBA guys profile well but I don't have a problem with high strikeout guys if they are still getting on base at a decent clip.

3. I always do this

4. I do this with #3 and see where I can find the guys who are making <$3300 and are hitting at the top of the order and fill those spots (and SP's first) and see how much I have left to spend on bigger stars.

5. I use platoon advantage in terms of getting lefty/righty mashers in the lineup (Pearce, Renfroe, Granderson come to mind) but for the most part, I think this is taken care of by #4 - the manager is going to have his best OBP guys at the top of the order and so , I don't pay attention beyond the right/left specialists, I think batting order is a better indicator.

6. I obviously don't do this at all, I don't like to go heavy on any one team but I want multiple players on multiple teams, I think this spreads out my exposure to save against the wasted lineup when the big stack fails but also allows me to not be left behind when the players who do the huge stacks hit on their games - at least I have a pretty decent piece of it too.
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@Northern Voice - Great post.  Thanks.  

I guess I assumed that what they are getting at was probably breaking ties with a similar salaried player for cash vs. gpp?  I took it as the equivalence of using the boring NFL WR that gets you 5-50 every game in cash vs. the one that gets 0s half the time, but could go off for 3-120-1 in a gpp.   So I took that as meaning guys like Smoak, Goldy, Freeman are better for cash than guys like Thames and Gallo.  If they K less, they are more likely to take the walk, get a run, etc..  Like you said, that might be taken care of by batting order a bit assuming the manager is putting the high OBP guys at the top, but I have seen Gallo at 2 a couple times and Thames is there too.    

Great point on #5.  I have been learning these guys - N.Cruz and Upton come to mind too.  Also what I have been trying to learn is LHBs that seem to hit LHPs well too.  The Mets guys come to mind - Conforto and Bruce both have good ISO and OK wOBA vs. lefties.   Pretty sure M.Olson is the same.  I like to keep an eye on those guys for gpps too, as I assume they might be lower owned due to the L-L matchup.

 
Raging weasel said:
3 and 4 are what I mostly go by. Up until last year players on FD lost points for Ks and outs.

I have the same super power as you- whoever I spend up on rarely pays off. Like the last 2 days Arenado has had about the best matchup he could have and has done diddly.
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Thanks for the input.  I am glad I started after they gave that up.  That sounds infuriating to watch.  

Last I checked Arenado is making it 3 days in a row...

 
Quick research tonight and the batters vs. a SP with high wOBA, WHIP, and SIERA were LAA, Balt, and Miami.    Balt always shows up for me, but haven't they sucked vs. Estrada @Northern Voice?   

Not sure I like a P enough for cash tonight, so probably just cheapie gpp night.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Quick research tonight and the batters vs. a SP with high wOBA, WHIP, and SIERA were LAA, Balt, and Miami.    Balt always shows up for me, but haven't they sucked vs. Estrada @Northern Voice?   

Not sure I like a P enough for cash tonight, so probably just cheapie gpp night.
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I'd be worried about BAL vs. Estrada because he's so changeup heavy and that's what Sanchez shut them down with last night but I do like their players better tonight than I did last night because Estrada has fly ball tendencies..  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Do you play on both sites, NV or just DK?
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Just DK, I've been playing off my initial deposit there for a while now and don't feel like putting more money in on another site.  I have a credit on draft.com as well, I've never used (it was one of those deals where it came with another subscription).

 
Did 6 25cent entries for the night.  Even if they all bust, I won $5-6 bucks on the early slate so I can still have a +day! 

I basically just threw a bunch of #### at the wall.  I used Wood, Estrada, Castillo and Gausman as SPs.  On DK I did a Balt stack and a NY stack.  On FD my LUs had LaD+Pitt, Miami + mix of studs, Philly + Mets and LAA + Mets.  

Good Luck, all!!

 
Castillo/Pivetta/Caratini/Smoak/Asdrubal/Bryant/Andrus/Cespedes/Choo/Trout

ended up only 1 of 4 this afternoon, so hopefully this evens me up for the day. in a 50/50 and the $3 "40K moonshot", because why not.

 
Interesting ownership tonight - looks like the SPs we all listed in here are fairly low owned in the gpps I'm in.   Castillo is fairly popular at 17%, but Estrada/Gausman are ,<10%.   I am guessing people are firing up Lester, Wood, Price then?

 
Castillo 10.9% in my gpp so hopefully he does well. On the plus side Hoskins is 1% owned and not starting. With my luck he will hit a PH grand slam.

 
@Northern Voice -  sorry to cheer against your team, but a grand slam there by Davis would have been very nice for me.  Just check my LUs and saw that my Balt 5 man stack on DK is paired with Sanchez/Judge/Stanton.

 
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Northern Voice said:
Castillo and Pivetta are 31.2 and 35.8% owned in my GPP with 16,000 entrants, so I'm not going to make a lot of ground there. 
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I was just looking at the FD ownership I guess.  It's about the same in the cheapie that I am in - Castillo is 27%, Pivetta is 35%.   I think DK's SP are more in tiers and have more of a difference in price.  On FD Lester, Tanaka, Wood, Price, Estrada were all within 1K of each other so it probably spreads the ownership out a bit.   I think on DK there was a 3-4K difference between some of these guys.  

 
You can't make this stuff up.  

In the afternoon, I had 4 gpps reserved on DK, and 2 on FD.  Then I realized the Oak/LaD game wasn't on DK, so I moved to 2 on DK and 4 FD.  The reason I did this?  To have 2 Oakland stacks.  Then I saw the batting order, couple guys with power I usually like were sitting, posted the above comment about them being watered down on the night, and shifted to other ideas.  16 runs later...  :lmao:

Oh well, still + on the day.  I think the Sox and Cubs scoring more had others catching up to my DK entries.  50cents in, $2.25 out there, and made the night fun as I was watching that Balt game to see if they could do something.  

 
@Raging weasel - and you thought last night was bad?

I think I am just going to use to day for a couple 25 cent ideas and call it good.  I haven't done it yet this year, so I am going to take a peek at the pick 'em and Arcade modes today.   I tried that showdown thing, and think that sucks.  I also think that's the reason they are cutting off the night games, which I also think sucks.   0 reason they can't offer today up as a 7 game slate on both sites.  At least then there would be some SP options like Bauer or whoever is going up against SD.

 
That is a pretty sad SP slate today, might do the early only 2 game or try the pick em.

Scored 140.2 last night but cash line was 146.5. I at least had the right stacks but missed on a couple players.

 
Also, if anyone saw Zimmerman get hit in the face with a line drive last night look it up. The only thing that saved him is that he has metal plates in his jaw from when it was broken in college.

 
Raging weasel said:
That is a pretty sad SP slate today, might do the early only 2 game or try the pick em.

Scored 140.2 last night but cash line was 146.5. I at least had the right stacks but missed on a couple players.
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Yep, Berrios is probably the best option, but will be highly owned along with Gio I am guessing.  Especially since the NY/Bost series is blowing up, nobody is touching those SPs.

Since I am probably not doing cash and just doing a few 25cent darts, I will probably fade those two, take a stab at Stratton, and consider stacking vs. Berrios or Gio along with big bats from NY/Bost/LAA.

 
I Like Tropeano tonight. NYY/BOS might not even get played if weather is accurate. I might take the night off or only do very cheap GPPs

 
I also took losses everywhere yesterday and the Leafs playoffs start tonight, so I very likely will not do anything at all today and get back at it Friday when I can pay more attention and am not on tilt :lol:  

 
Oh man!  I took a peek at tomorrow and saw Oak @ Seat.  Looks like I will be rolling out a couple cheap game stacks! 

 
The Stl/Cincy batters were the ones that stood out for the 2 game slate on FD.  So I just put in a Bauer + game stack LU. 

For Main slate the targets that came up were Washington righties, NY lefties, W.Sox, LAA lefties, and SF.  Don't really like SF for a stack though.  So my cheap gpp ideas for tonight are:

2 LUs of Stratton + W.Sox stack of Moncada, Abreu, Davidson, and Delminco.  Leaves plenty for studs (placeholder has T.Turner, Betts, JD Mart, and H.Ram in it).  Might not risk that game and sprinkle in Wash, Minn, and Angels power bats instead.

2LUs of Gio or Berrios + Angels lefties.  Hoping Schimpf gets in the lineup, then it will be Calhoun, Valbuena, Ohtani, Schimpf.   Also leaves plenty of $ for decent bats (I think 3K+).  If Schimpf isn't in I will decide between a 3 man stack or putting somebody else close to them in it - Simmons or Cozart?

 
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Tonight looks like a good one.  Seems like lots of hitting situations and lots of good SPs.  

I thought Cole was the cash lock on FD when I glanced at stuff, but is E.Rod the play since he is only 6.6K?  On DK I was going to start with Cole and probably him since he is cheap over there, but not that cheap.  

Gpp SPs there are quite a few, IMO.  Clevenger, the SPs in the LaD/AZ game, Roark depending on Color L/U, Velasquez.   I am sure there are a few others, but not sure you have to dumpster dive too much for a gpp SP if Rodriquez is that cheap.  

 
@Northern Voice - listening to podcast today, and they had a tad more about the K% on hitters.  Makes sense, just thought I would post b/c we were talking about it here.  There point was it matters a little, but if you have a higher K% guy it's safer to use them vs. a low K% SP.  

Ie - Blach only Ks righties 15%, so a guy like Pirela who whiffs at almost 30% is safer tonight than vs. a guy that might K righties at 23%+ or more.  On the flip side, Gallo probably isn't the best play.  

 
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