twood

Rank the rookie rbs so far

182 posts in this topic

I am sure we will have a poll going into the season but i have the 6th pick in our rookie draft (also 9th) and i am giddy about what i am going to he choosing between after the first 3 rounds.

 

How would you rank 2-7 cause obviously Barkley is everyones 1.1

 

I think i would go

2 Jones tb

3 Penny seattle

4 Guice wash

5 Michael ne

6 Johnson det

7 Freeman den

8 Chubb cle

Probably whoever Indy drafts 9

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Guice

Jones

Johnson

Penny

Michel

Freeman

Chubb

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Not a lot changed for me.   Over next 3 years...

Tier 1

Barkley

Tier 2

Guice

Chubb

Tier 3

Jones

Penny

Freeman

Tier 4

Michel

Johnson

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Guice (outstanding situation; if healthy will be a 1200/10 guy)

Jones (no competition for carries, 3 down back, prolific offense)

---------------

Michel (could be crowded backfield to start, but since Pats grabbed him in the 1st they have big plans for him and he could quickly emerge as a 15-20 touch guy if he can protect Brady.  Kamara-lite?)

---------------

Penny (sheer volume he ranks highly despite o-line concerns and they "reached" so likely intend to make him the bellcow

---------------

Johnson (a lot of upside on Detroit; how good is he?)

Freeman (how much better is he than Devontae Booker?)

Chubb (rough situation with Duke and Hyde in the fold)

 

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Guice 

Jones III 

Penny 

Michel

Chubb 

Freeman 

Johnson 

 

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 1) Penny seattle

 Guice wash

 Jones tb

 Chubb cle

 

2) Freeman den

 Michel ne

 

 3) Johnson det

 Barkley ny

1) That ain't no pocket passer in Sea  I could see healthy chip blocks being quite acceptable

2) Between arm tackles and fumbles. It could be more buyer beware than top dawg for these two men

3) Detroit likes to throw to their RB  Man had two career TD's receiving in College

Yes, I know I'm wrong on Barkley  But I could see the Giants potentially not just giving the man every snap  So what if he flubs a 3rd down play?  The man is most concerned with faking like he just accepted a handoff and then stops to set his feet for a block  Some big bad NFL DE sidesteps him and pancakes Eli as he just turns around to watch  Basically some deja vu for Peyton "damn it, Donald"

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Dismattle said:

That ain't no pocket passer in Sea

People keep saying this. He just led the league in TD passes. All but one of those TDs were throws from the pocket. Yes, he made some crazy scrambles along the way to move the sticks, but those are such a rarity. Fore some reason those rare plays stick in people's minds to the point that they think they're the norm. They're not. Wilson delivers the ball from the pocket far more often than anyone seems to realize. 

No idea if Carson will return to the form we saw in short stint to start the year, but he looked fine behind that O-line that gets trashed so often. The combination of Lacy and Rawls made the O-line look horrible. Funny how that works. Sometimes a O-line can make a RB look great. Sometimes a RB can make an O-line look awful. It's not a one-way relationship. My gut tells me Penny make the O-line look a lot better just like Carson did. 

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Posted (edited)

9 minutes ago, Dismattle said:

 Yes, I know I'm wrong on Barkley  But I could see the Giants potentially not just giving the man every snap  So what if he flubs a 3rd down play?  The man is most concerned with faking like he just accepted a handoff and then stops to set his feet for a block  Some big bad NFL DE sidesteps him and pancakes Eli as he just turns around to watch  Basically some deja vu for Peyton "damn it, Donald"

 

 

Totally agree.  Giants dropped the #2 overall pick on a RB and he might get pined for Jonathan Stewart if he screws up here or there. Buyer beware.

Edited by SayWhat?

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5 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Totally agree.  Giants dropped the #2 overall pick on a RB and he might get pined for Jonathan Stewart if he screws up here or there. Buyer beware.

Your post fits perfectly with your board name.

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Non ppr rankings

Tier one

1 Barkley - most talented player, good offense, improved offensive line.  Nothing else to say.

Tier two

2 penny - I wasn't enamored with him before the draft but it seems like the whole NFL loved him as we got closer to the draft and he was the second back off the board for a reason.  I think the Seahawks want to build around Penny the way they built around lynch- get back to physical play and set the tone for the offense and defense.  

3 Chubb - I had him neck and neck with guice before the draft, and somehow I now vastly prefer the Browns to Washington.  I really don't mind the landing spot (except as a Hyde owner) because I think Chubb is the clear lead guy as early as this year and the Browns can move on from both Hyde and duke next year if they want.  As a bonus, the one thing Chubb said he is working on most is the receiving game.  

4 Ronald Jones - ideal landing spot.  He's not a big back but he runs like a more powerful back, falling forward a ton.  He's got very little competition from barber, and could get 3 down work from the start.  

5 Guice- the uncertainty of the freefall is concerning, but let's assume it's nothing.  He's still a guy known more for his running than receiving paired with one of the best receiving backs in the league.  The opportunity is there for him to be very good, but all of these backs have that opportunity.  I just don't think his better running talent outweighs his situation by enough to move him higher. 

6 Kerryon - good offensive line, good passing game, mediocre competition.  3 down skills, experience against top college teams, and experience in a pro style offense. Bonus, the team traded up to get him when it didn't seem necessary and other good backs were still on the board.  This is the guy they wanted. Choo choo.

7 Royce - 3 down skills, record seeing college production in a top conference, goes to a team that needs a three down back.  I can't believe I have him at 7 honestly but i like all the other guys too.

8 Michel - as a patriots fan it's hard to put him 8th, but I don't trust his role and the injury history, and the Brady/ Belichick era will eventually end.  The patriots paid big to get him and he should have an immediate opportunity to replace Dion's production, and while the presence of hill and white takes some shine off his receiving and touchdown production, the offense is good enough that he can still put up rb1 numbers.  I admittedly was not a big Michel guy before the draft, and the first round pick should have changed my mind more. 

Tier 3 

Everyone else. I wouldn't take any of the receivers or qbs this year over any of these 8.

 

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I kind of agree. Wouldn’t shock me if top 8 this year are all RBs in some leagues.

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Disclaimer - I own picks 3 and 8 in a non ppr dynasty and honestly have no idea who to take at 3 and no control over who i get at 8. I was so settled in on Chubb at 3 that I might have been overestimating Chubb and underrating Guice and Michel before the draft started.  

All 8 backs went to good spots, and the guys everyone thought were most talented went to the worst spots. I think you have to keep guys like guice and Chubb a little higher than their situation dictates because they are ostensibly more talented and more likely to have NFL success, but the supposedly less talented guys all went to places where they could get 3 down work from day one. 

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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Disclaimer - I own picks 3 and 8 in a non ppr dynasty and honestly have no idea who to take at 3 and no control over who i get at 8. I was so settled in on Chubb at 3 that I might have been overestimating Chubb and underrating Guice and Michel before the draft started.  

All 8 backs went to good spots, and the guys everyone thought were most talented went to the worst spots. I think you have to keep guys like guice and Chubb a little higher than their situation dictates because they are ostensibly more talented and more likely to have NFL success, but the supposedly less talented guys all went to places where they could get 3 down work from day one. 

Depends on your need. I’m going with the talent vs opportunity however if you are a win now team and you want to roll the dice then grab the less talented more opportunity player; with the understanding that his replacement could/will be drafted next year or the year after. You are working with a small window and we see it happen all the time. 

I’m a draft the best talent and be patient.

Tex

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PPR:

Jones II

Michel

Penny

Kerryon / Guice / Chubb

 

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Surprised at the Guice love.  People ignored the character red flags on Trent Richardson as well.  All i know is I won't be drafting him. 

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Just now, BigTex said:

Depends on your need. I’m going with the talent vs opportunity however if you are a win now team and you want to roll the dice then grab the less talented more opportunity player; with the understanding that his replacement could/will be drafted next year or the year after. You are working with a small window and we see it happen all the time. 

I’m a draft the best talent and be patient.

Tex

To some extent sure, and in most draft classes I'd agree, but just look at this

27 - Penny (Seahawks)
31- Michel (Pats)
35 - Chubb (Browns)
38 - RJII (Tampa)
43 - Kerryon Johnson (Lions)
59 - Guice (Wash)
72 - Royce (Broncos) 

Which backs are leaps and bounds ahead on talent? 

5 backs got taken between the bottom of the first and top half of the second, and guice was considered the most talented of the bunch but slid to 59.. 6 running backs in the first 43 picks in a draft that already had 5 quarterbacks in the first - the nfl apparently thinks all these guys are really talented. 

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6 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

To some extent sure, and in most draft classes I'd agree, but just look at this

27 - Penny (Seahawks)
31- Michel (Pats)
35 - Chubb (Browns)
38 - RJII (Tampa)
43 - Kerryon Johnson (Lions)
59 - Guice (Wash)
72 - Royce (Broncos) 

Which backs are leaps and bounds ahead on talent? 

5 backs got taken between the bottom of the first and top half of the second, and guice was considered the most talented of the bunch but slid to 59.. 6 running backs in the first 43 picks in a draft that already had 5 quarterbacks in the first - the nfl apparently thinks all these guys are really talented. 

Similar to Mixon I don't view his fall as being talent based.

Guice has a lot of parallels to Mixon in fact. Both among my top two RB's based on talent in their drafts, both fall due to off the field issues, both end up Marvin Lewis or extension of his RBBC loving coaching tree and are paired up with a fairly solid pass catching RB(Thompson/Gio). 

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Assuming PPR...

1) Barkley

----------------

2) Guice
3) Penny
4) RoJo
5) Chubb

---------------

6) Michel
7) Keep calm and Kerryon (nickname trademark to @Ilov80s)-

---------------

8) Royce

 

Penny is the big riser for me because he really looks in line for a lot of work on a good offense now, and his team seems very committed to him (was willing to pick him all the way up at 18, rejected a trade offer for him after they picked him).  The NFL seems to be a lot higher on Penny than I realized, and Carroll seems to prefer to give one RB all the work and this is the most he's ever invested in a RB in the NFL.

RoJo I was already higher on than most.  A lot seem to be stuck on the idea that if you're smaller you need to be a good receiver, and he is not.  But he runs big, and he is a great runner.  I always saw workhorse potential in him in spite of his size (which is not far off from Charles or Shady) and he went to the perfect spot for that.

Sony is the big slider for most but I was always lower on him than most to start anyway, though I still do think he's a tier ahead of Kerryon as a player so while their situations move them close and into the same tier, I'll still take Sony slightly ahead.

The draft worked out well for me (or poorly depending on how you look at it, as with 1.07 in two leagues I now likely won't have a shot at my guys) being higher on RoJo as a player than most and lower on Sony.
 

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Similar to Mixon I don't view his fall as being talent based.

Guice has a lot of parallels to Mixon in fact. Both among my top two RB's based on talent in their drafts, both fall due to off the field issues, both end up Marvin Lewis or extension of his RBBC loving coaching tree and are paired up with a fairly solid pass catching RB(Thompson/Gio). 

Similar to Dalvin Cook as well.  Not talented-related, just character concerns.

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First try at adjusting my rankings:

Barkley obviously

Derrius Guice - I think he's still the 1b to Barkley but there are concerns and he's subject to move when some of these things come out in the next 3 months.  Talent wise, I think he's still the #2 and his situation isn't ideal but it isn't a bad spot either

Ronald Jones II - I had him #2 before, changed my mind when his testing didn't improve things, and now I can put him where I think he belongs at #3 both with landing spot and talent.  I think him being taken at #38 overall is telling us that teams are pretty confident in him, even though he was the 5th RB taken in the draft, that early 2nd spot is very nice to see.  

Sony Michel - Patriots are the Patriots, but they moved on from Dion Lewis, James White only plays in playoff situations, Burkhead kind of scares me with how versatile he is, but I think Michel is the better RB and just as versatile.  Fumbling is an issue but although it likely won't be 20+ touches a game, I think Kamara light is very possible.  

Rashaad Penny - Great landing spot other than the O-line, but there has been success in the running game at times even with that poor o-line.  Penny will be fine, and grow into a more dominant RB the better that line gets.  Doesn't hurt to have Russel Wilson there either.  

Royce Freeman - I could re-write the same exact things I wrote for Penny other than the QB part.  Keenum is good enough to not let Freeman be pressed that much though.  The thing with Freeman is I have more questions about his game than I did Penny but I think I'm forced into putting him ahead of Chubb.  Which is what I hate. 

Nick Chubb - Talent wise he's my favorite in the draft, but his unlikely production when it comes to PPR, along with Duke Johnson being there, and Baker Mayfield doing some running Chubb is a guy I really want to take but don't think I can until he can push Hyde aside.  I hate having to rank him down here.

Kerryon Johnson - I don't like his game, but he's in a great spot and he's a swing for the fences type of pick.  I could see him being ranked anywhere after #3 if you're a believer or if you want to take that swing.  I prefer a higher floor in my rankings but I don't fault someone who wants to take the Kerryon risk early.  Just not my style.  

I had Hines, Adams, Ballage, and Kelly before Kerryon in my pre-draft rankings here but I'm mentioning Kerryon because he was drafted early.  I think I'll bump most of them down behind Kerryon Johnson but I'm not sure about that yet.  Depends a lot on landing spot and draft position for these guys.  

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Lots of 3 down talk about Ronald Jones II in here... I'm not sure why.  He had 1 reception per game and didn't lead USC RBs in receptions in any season.

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Just now, Tick said:

Lots of 3 down talk about Ronald Jones II in here... I'm not sure why.  He had 1 reception per game and didn't lead USC RBs in receptions in any season.

Darnold was part of the problem. I saw plenty of game when Jones was open a he didn’t even get a look. Some of this falls on the QB.

Tex

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Barkley

 

Guice

Jones

Penny

 

Michel

Chubb

 

K Johnson

Freeman

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2 hours ago, Tick said:

Lots of 3 down talk about Ronald Jones II in here... I'm not sure why.  He had 1 reception per game and didn't lead USC RBs in receptions in any season.

Who do you think is the third down back in Tampa?  Do you think Jones has an opportunity to become a three down back if he shows that he can catch the ball well?   

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22 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Who do you think is the third down back in Tampa?  Do you think Jones has an opportunity to become a three down back if he shows that he can catch the ball well?   

Well they did just resign Charles Sims on draft eve...  :bag:

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7 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

I kind of agree. Wouldn’t shock me if top 8 this year are all RBs in some leagues.

Most likely mine.  And of course I'm picking #9.

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6 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Who do you think is the third down back in Tampa?  Do you think Jones has an opportunity to become a three down back if he shows that he can catch the ball well?   

Sims had 35 receptions last year.  If Jones shows he can catch and block well, great... but we don't know if he can or not.

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6 minutes ago, Tick said:

Sims had 35 receptions last year.  If Jones shows he can catch and block well, great... but we don't know if he can or not.

He blocked really well in the game against Texas that I charted. 11 successful blocks, a couple of them on WR screens where he works as a lead blocker for the receiver.

From the 4 games I charted for Jones he had 4 good routes against Standford, 5 against Texas linked above and 6 against UCLA. He only gets one point for hands in each of the 3 games where he ran routes. The game against Ohio State that I charted he was not used as a receiver, USC was outmatched in this game and Jones struggled as the offensive line really struggled in this game, He still did some difficult running in this game and had some big plays though, just not as a receiver.

Sam Darnold should have thrown to him at times when he was wide open for big gains, but Darnold would be throwing it downfield, one time for an interception instead. So the reception totals don't really match up to what would have happened with better QB awareness of his options.

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13 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

Totally agree.  Giants dropped the #2 overall pick on a RB and he might get pined for Jonathan Stewart if he screws up here or there. Buyer beware.

You doh't really believe that do you?

Buyer beware! :lmao: 

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7 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

You doh't really believe that do you?

Buyer beware! :lmao: 

:whoosh:

Of course not, it’s idiotic.  

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Posted (edited)

1 Barkley, 2 Penny, 3 Jones, 4 Michel, 5 Guice, 6 Chubb, 7  Freeman

After that I'll pick receivers or quarterbacks.

Edited by cloppbeast
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Barkley

Guice

Penny

Jones

Michel

Chubb

Freeman

Johnson

Ballage

Justin Jackson

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1 minute ago, jtd13 said:

Barkley

Guice

Penny

Jones

Michel

Chubb

Freeman

Johnson

Ballage

Justin Jackson

Justin Jackson is interesting. dD you think the Chargers won't resign Gordon? Ekeler, who's half decent, stands in his way also.

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51 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

1 Barkley, 2 Penny, 3 Jones, 4 Michel, 5 Guice, 6 Freeman

After that I'll pick receivers or quarterbacks.

You'd take a QB over Chubb?

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9 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Justin Jackson is interesting. dD you think the Chargers won't resign Gordon? Ekeler, who's half decent, stands in his way also.

No, but I think he could be a satellite back to complement Gordon long term. They seem to like having that role. It could also be Ekeler, but I think Jackson is more capable running between the tackles based on 4 years of producing in the big ten. That gives them more versatility to use him like they used Woodhead.

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On 4/28/2018 at 10:13 AM, SayWhat? said:

Totally agree.  Giants dropped the #2 overall pick on a RB and he might get pined for Jonathan Stewart if he screws up here or there. Buyer beware.

So I see there are *two* shameless owners of the 1.2 pick in their respective rookie drafts here so far. :lmao:

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The disrespect of Chubb in here has me shaking my head.

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10 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

You'd take a QB over Chubb?

Sorry, forgot about Chubb. Post updated.

 

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Posted (edited)

30 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

The disrespect of Chubb in here has me shaking my head.

Chubb's major hurdle is the fact that he's now going to have a franchise rookie QB in front of him, two established RB's who are both MUCH better at helping a QB survive, and an as-yet-to-be-determined turnstyle at LT.

Chubb will be able to share time with Hyde on run-only downs, but he can't catch or block like Hyde, and obviously isn't a tenth of the asset on true passing downs that Duke is.  This is a team that's going to be absolutely desperate for the RB's to prove to be assets to Mayfield in the passing game.  You're not going to want Chubb in there with Mayfield when the time comes to pick up NFL level blitzers.  If they try to shoehorn Chubb into a feature back role as a rook, the Mayfield era is going to be awfully short.

Chubb's a good runner, but in a terrible spot for a runner with his limited pass-game skillset.  Cleveland's going to be a lot more interested in keeping players out there that help Mayfield than they are in developing second tier skill position talent, for the foreseeable future.  He belongs in the discussion, but not as any kind of immediate impact player.

Edited by GawainB
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28 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

The disrespect of Chubb in here has me shaking my head.

It's Cleveland.  They will be playing from behind A LOT and the few rushing TD's the team actually scores will be shared with 2 other solid RB's.  I'm the complete opposite....I can't see why others like his situation.

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