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Alex Collins Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
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After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a main feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence. 

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Alex Collins is shaping up to be the starting running back fantasy owners draft because they can't resist the opportunity, but they're also not exactly thrilled to build their roster around. Part of that disdain lies in the mundane state of the Ravens offense. Joe Flacco has descended to a point that makes him one of the worst veteran starters in the game (for fantasy purposes), and the Ravens lacked playmakers to boot. Collins was surprisingly productive last year, but some fear that was by default as Danny Woodhead and Kenneth Dixon failed to make their marks. Do you see Collins as a legitimate fantasy RB2? Can he factor into the receiving game more this year? Will the rebuilt receiving corps mean fewer touches for Collins, or will they lead to increased overall offensive productivity and, in turn, more scoring (red zone) opportunities for Collins? 

 
Collins is intriguing to me because he was very successful on an otherwise pretty bad offensive team last year. Given how he ended the year on the ground, I wouldn't be surprised if people were a bit lower on him than they should be. However, he was targeted more in the air during those weeks, showing the team can trust him as a receiver. 

I think Collins can be a RB2, and if he can continue to get targets in the passing game he might even flirt with low end rb1 status. He has potential to be one of the fewer true bell cows in the league, and given his ADP I think that's some major value

 
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Played with a bang up Oline last year with no training camp

now D is strong (better than last year?) Get a training camp under his belt, Good run game OC, better WRs but they are all new (chemistry with QB?), TEs are all over the place (may lead to more RB targets, and in Flacco gets hurt benched he has a QB that will take a lot of focus off the RBs.

I loved the way he ran last year and with being cut by the Seahawks he should understand the chance he's been given so will work his Irish Dancing butt off to improve on last year

 
The Ravens have traditionally funneled their offense through a versatile, pass-catching back, which is the role that Ken Dixon was drafted to fill.  If he is healthy and productive, Collins will take a back seat to him.

However, if he suffers any further setbacks or does not prove that he is capable of producing at the NFL level, then the stage is set for Collins to have a significant increase in workload over what he had in 2017.

 
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The Ravens have traditionally funneled their offense through a versatile, pass-catching back, which is the role that Ken Dixon was drafted to fill.  If he is healthy and productive, Collins will take a back seat to him.

However, if he suffers any further setbacks or does not prove that he is capable of producing at the NFL level, then the stage is set for Collins to have a significant increase in workload over what he had in 2017.
So if I'm reading this right, you're saying it's Dixon's job to lose? This is very surprising to me. 

Especially since Collins ended the season showing that he can be exactly what they drafted Dixon to be, without the injury woes and suspension problems. 

For all we know, the guy is off the juice and is a complete bum. At least iwth Collins we know what we got- a guy who can carry the ball 12+ times a game and soak up at least 5 targets a game, and be successful at both

 
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So if I'm reading this right, you're saying it's Dixon's job to lose? This is very surprising to me.
I'm not saying that at all, but Dixon flashed plenty as a rookie prior to his injury and suspension. I'd guess that this backfield is split about 60/40 if Dixon is healthy and productive.

 
I'd like him more if he didn't play for the Ravens. 

Last year, instead of riding the hot hand they'd douse it in cold water. 

I'll pass. 

 
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One of the more puzzling transactions of the season last year was when SEA (and RB needy team) waived Collins only 1 year after drafting him.  He was one of the lone bright spots on a dismal BAL offense.  A few points on Collins:

1) Dixon returning clouds his workload to a decent degree.  Is this a full blown RBBC, or did Collins do enough to be the primary?  Understand that Collins has done more for the Ravens than Dixon has.

2)  In his last 3 games, Collins seemingly gassed out with sub 3.0 YPC in his last 3 games.

3) Collins could yield touches and still be productive for FF purposes.  Once he claimed the starting job, his final 12 games saw him average 18.33 touches/game

IMO, Collins has an underrated floor but questionable ceiling.  He's likely going to top out as an RB2...but I think that's also a fairly safe projection for him.  At the same time, he should be a guy you settle for (happily), not target.

 
tangfoot said:
I'm not saying that at all, but Dixon flashed plenty as a rookie prior to his injury and suspension. I'd guess that this backfield is split about 60/40 if Dixon is healthy and productive.
Interesting take. I disagree of course, but I can see where one might come to that conclusion based on how Collins was initially used last year. I think the workload increase and even him pushing Buck Allen aside are nothing but positive signs toward him being the workhorse. It'll be an interesting thing to watch this season, and it's one reason why I think many people may be selling Collins. I think this is a perfect buy low opportunity myself. 

 
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Alex Collins is a much better receiving back than he is being given credit for. Expecting him to be the bell-cow that is rested by either Dixon or Allen. Bump back to front page for more discussion on what should be an interesting watch during training camp.

 
I loved Alex Collins as a prospect, and was very disappointed when he kept falling on draft day and ended up in a crowded Seattle depth chart. Maybe I was just falsely impressed at his frantic mini-beastmode running style. When he was released by Seattle I assumed that he was bound to be one of those guys that bounced around for a while and then disappeared.

When he got his chance in Baltimore the experience of watching his college film came back to me in a flash. He's so much fun to watch as he bounces into and off defenders, keeping his legs churning until he finds some space and then he explodes. Is he a special back? No, not really. However he runs hard, has some very good balance and has no quit in him. If he sees volume, he'll rack up yards. I think he will see volume with only Kenneth Dixon (injuries and suspensions have derailed his career thus far) and the versatile but mediocre Buck Allen as competition.

Sadly I traded him away this offseason in the two leagues where I owned him. Not because I do not like him -- I do -- but because he needed to be included into some bigger deals to get them done.

Early projections:   249 carries for 1,095 yards and 8 TDs / 23 receptions for 158 yards and 1 TD 

 
Love the player, not the situation. Collins showed last year he has the talent to be an early running down back, and was criminally (IMHO) underused. The team had plenty of concern (largely warranted) about his fumble issues which for me dampens Collins' ability to be a true 3 down bell cow -- this is certainly something that could change with trust but that takes time and I am not sure if Collins had the consistent opportunity to get the reps to prove he can hold on to the ball until really late last season. 

I also think given the workload distribution that the team likes having RB options -- Buck never truly went all the way away, and the return of Dixon who has decent versatility means to me that I think Collins' usage is likely to be similar to last year. 

I do think Collins has the talent to be an every down back. I don't think he will be given that chance in this offense with the other personnel in the backfield at the team's disposal. This could change if Collins clearly outperforms consistently (and holds on to the rock) but I'd be wary of taking him a lot earlier than his ADP is on that expectation alone.

 
Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva 1h1 hour ago

The sooner Lamar Jackson takes over as #Ravens QB, the better for Alex Collins. And Roman is one of the most respected run-game designers in the league. Marshal Yanda returns. This run game explodes whenever Lamar takes over

 
One of the more puzzling transactions of the season last year was when SEA (and RB needy team) waived Collins only 1 year after drafting him.  He was one of the lone bright spots on a dismal BAL offense.  A few points on Collins:

1) Dixon returning clouds his workload to a decent degree.  Is this a full blown RBBC, or did Collins do enough to be the primary?  Understand that Collins has done more for the Ravens than Dixon has.

2)  In his last 3 games, Collins seemingly gassed out with sub 3.0 YPC in his last 3 games.

3) Collins could yield touches and still be productive for FF purposes.  Once he claimed the starting job, his final 12 games saw him average 18.33 touches/game

IMO, Collins has an underrated floor but questionable ceiling.  He's likely going to top out as an RB2...but I think that's also a fairly safe projection for him.  At the same time, he should be a guy you settle for (happily), not target.
Agree with this 100%.

 
Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva 1h1 hour ago

The sooner Lamar Jackson takes over as #Ravens QB, the better for Alex Collins. And Roman is one of the most respected run-game designers in the league. Marshal Yanda returns. This run game explodes whenever Lamar takes over
It’s an underrated aspect of the Ravens. There’s upside with Jackson at qb even if 30 catches is the ceiling.

 
Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva 1h1 hour ago

The sooner Lamar Jackson takes over as #Ravens QB, the better for Alex Collins. And Roman is one of the most respected run-game designers in the league. Marshal Yanda returns. This run game explodes whenever Lamar takes over
I think that Lamar will vulture touches and tds from the RBS so not that clear cut.   I think the offense will be more explosive with Jackson and it may open things up for the RBS.  But he will eat up alotnofghe rushing attempts that would otherwise go to the backs and some tds.  Limiting their upside.  It’s what Michael Vick and can newton do to the backs on their team.   

 
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Early projections:   249 carries for 1,095 yards and 8 TDs / 23 receptions for 158 yards and 1 TD 
In Mornhinweg's past 6 seasons as an OC no back has exceeded 212 attempts. Over that same period the average number of carries by a RB1 is 197. It seemed like Morning was up to his old tricks last season. Collins was performing at a high level but Allen was often subbed in at some strange moments. I like what I saw from Collins last year but Morhinweg's history is putting a damper on my enthusiasm.

 
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I think that Lamar will culture touches and tds from the RBS so not that clear cut.   I think the offense will be more explosive with Jackson and it may open things up for the RBS.  But he will eat up alotnofghe rushing attempts that would otherwise go to the backs and some tds.  Limiting their upside.  It’s what Michael Vick and can newton do to the backs on their team.   
Rg3 never hurt Alfred Morris at all.

 
Rg3 never hurt Alfred Morris at all.
I don’t remember too much of rh3s rookie season with Morris but I do remember Morris having a good year.  It’s a double edged sword.   Having a hyper mobile qb puts added stress on a defense and opens running lanes for the backs, but the qb also vultures run attempts and tds.  

Did vick have any rb1s on his teams?  Newton?  I’m actually sorry I drafted McCaffrey in my dyno league last year bc of newton.  

Lamar Jackson was a rushing td machine in college.  If it carries over into the pros I think that negatively impacts all RBS in Balt.  

 
One of the more puzzling transactions of the season last year was when SEA (and RB needy team) waived Collins only 1 year after drafting him.  He was one of the lone bright spots on a dismal BAL offense.  A few points on Collins:

1) Dixon returning clouds his workload to a decent degree.  Is this a full blown RBBC, or did Collins do enough to be the primary?  Understand that Collins has done more for the Ravens than Dixon has.

2)  In his last 3 games, Collins seemingly gassed out with sub 3.0 YPC in his last 3 games.

3) Collins could yield touches and still be productive for FF purposes.  Once he claimed the starting job, his final 12 games saw him average 18.33 touches/game

IMO, Collins has an underrated floor but questionable ceiling.  He's likely going to top out as an RB2...but I think that's also a fairly safe projection for him.  At the same time, he should be a guy you settle for (happily), not target.
I agree with all of this...since I tend to draft ceiling players I'll likely be steering clear.

 
I don’t remember too much of rh3s rookie season with Morris but I do remember Morris having a good year.  It’s a double edged sword.   Having a hyper mobile qb puts added stress on a defense and opens running lanes for the backs, but the qb also vultures run attempts and tds.  

Did vick have any rb1s on his teams?  Newton?  I’m actually sorry I drafted McCaffrey in my dyno league last year bc of newton.  

Lamar Jackson was a rushing td machine in college.  If it carries over into the pros I think that negatively impacts all RBS in Balt.  
Looking back Vick’s rbs had quite a few tds. Newton is different as he has the size to excel at the goal line.

 
Love the player, not the situation. Collins showed last year he has the talent to be an early running down back, and was criminally (IMHO) underused. The team had plenty of concern (largely warranted) about his fumble issues which for me dampens Collins' ability to be a true 3 down bell cow -- this is certainly something that could change with trust but that takes time and I am not sure if Collins had the consistent opportunity to get the reps to prove he can hold on to the ball until really late last season. 

I also think given the workload distribution that the team likes having RB options -- Buck never truly went all the way away, and the return of Dixon who has decent versatility means to me that I think Collins' usage is likely to be similar to last year. 

I do think Collins has the talent to be an every down back. I don't think he will be given that chance in this offense with the other personnel in the backfield at the team's disposal. This could change if Collins clearly outperforms consistently (and holds on to the rock) but I'd be wary of taking him a lot earlier than his ADP is on that expectation alone.
Your 1st sentence says it all.   I'm on board with your entire take, sadly I might add.

 
I'm not saying that at all, but Dixon flashed plenty as a rookie prior to his injury and suspension. I'd guess that this backfield is split about 60/40 if Dixon is healthy and productive.
I am not getting the Dixon love over Collins.  What exactly did Dixon flash as a rookie?

What about a 88-382-2 rushing line and a 30-41-162-2 passing line exhibits a promising future?

He has not shown himself to be a better runner.  Running behind a much better line (healthy Yanda...) Dixon had a 4.3 YPC in 2016 compared to Collins 4.59 in 2017.  

B-more apparently did not believe in him as the primary pass-catching back, because they went out and signed Woodhead for that.

Now take that guy, take away the advantage of PEDs, and add a season ending  knee injury to the mix, and what is left?  Not a player I would invest in at this time.

Meanwhile, behind one of the worst lines in the league, Collins turned in a very blue collar RB performance with no indicators of statistical aberration and an upward trend as the season progressed.  In his first 10 games with B-more he averaged 1.8 targets a game.  In the last three he averaged 6 per game... games that they were in the playoff hunt and needed to win, BTW.  

I get the overall usage objections against Collins, but other than media hype, there is very little evidence that Dixon has the ability to threaten his RB1 status.

 
If Collins' usage is similar to his usage from Week 8 on, last year, I'll gladly take 16 games of that, at his ADP. Even with Allen and Drake in the mix, Collins looks more like an inflation, rather than a regression candidate to me. Word has it that the drafting of Lamar Jackson has lit a fire under Flacco. I'm a big believe in 'a rising tide lifts all boats'. If Flacco plays like with more intensity, and with it comes more competence, that whole offense is due for at least a small progression of some sorts, and I think there's every reason to believe that the individual who will benefit the most from any inflation in that offense is Collins. Depending on who I've drafted already, I'd consider him in the 4th (pretty sure his ADP is mid-4th). If I knew I could land him in the 5th, it'd almost be a no-brainer, at least in my mind.

 
Really down on Collins as a NFL back... now Mitch Finn, there's the hotness.

Pros

Good jig ability

Can move and rotate his calves well

Hips always seems fluid

Hands and arms stay in sync well for his ability level

Keeps his head from bobbing too much

Cons

Must work on his heel/toe speed

tends to wander around instead on displaying straight-line atrhleticism

Out-danced by a teenage girl

 
My worry with Collins is that he turns into a Crowell shaped pumpkin. He was brought back as an RFA to a team that is probably not going to be great offensively and has very little invested in him. Add on that they somehow decided that maintaining dixon was a good idea through his suspension and we have the looks of a mess.

I would not be shocked at all to see the Ravens throw out an RB by community to see if anyone is too good to keep out of the game, see that fail (as it often does for teams not from New England and now Philly), cut Flacco prior to next season, then back up the dump truck full of money at Lev Bell’s place 

 
My worry with Collins is that he turns into a Crowell shaped pumpkin. He was brought back as an RFA to a team that is probably not going to be great offensively and has very little invested in him. Add on that they somehow decided that maintaining dixon was a good idea through his suspension and we have the looks of a mess.

I would not be shocked at all to see the Ravens throw out an RB by community to see if anyone is too good to keep out of the game, see that fail (as it often does for teams not from New England and now Philly), cut Flacco prior to next season, then back up the dump truck full of money at Lev Bell’s place 
how so? they revamped their wide receiver group and drafted possibly the most explosive QB in the draft. If Flacco struggles they bring in Jackson which is even better for Collins. 

your second paragraph... I'm going to assume you aren't joking. I dont see that happening. ever. 

 
how so? they revamped their wide receiver group and drafted possibly the most explosive QB in the draft. If Flacco struggles they bring in Jackson which is even better for Collins. 

your second paragraph... I'm going to assume you aren't joking. I dont see that happening. ever. 
I mean, we thought their WR corp was going to be a revamp last year too didn’t we? They kept Wallace, brought in Maclin, Perriman was going to contribute, Maxx Williams was ready... this current group has potential but if Crabtree is washed, Brown is hurt, and Snead pulls a disappearing act, they are in the same boat.

As for Bell, I’m totally serious. They will have a QB with an extremely favorable contract In Jackson for 3 years before he gets a bit pricier in the 5th year option. They could afford Bell. He is the single best player offensive player in the league that is not playing QB right now and would be a massive boon to a developing quarterback. A player like him instantly transforms the offense. That aside though, the single biggest reason for him going there would be shared interest. The dude wants to get paid but I bet he’d take a slightly weaker offer so that he could stay in division and stick it to Pit twice a year and help take the division away from them

 
Best and most used RB on his team. Offense could be an upgrade with new WRs. I am psyched to own him.

BUT his fumbling history gives him a very short leash if he can't hold onto it. That makes him riskier than most.

 
If Collins' usage is similar to his usage from Week 8 on, last year, I'll gladly take 16 games of that, at his ADP. Even with Allen and Drake in the mix, Collins looks more like an inflation, rather than a regression candidate to me. Word has it that the drafting of Lamar Jackson has lit a fire under Flacco. I'm a big believe in 'a rising tide lifts all boats'. If Flacco plays like with more intensity, and with it comes more competence, that whole offense is due for at least a small progression of some sorts, and I think there's every reason to believe that the individual who will benefit the most from any inflation in that offense is Collins. Depending on who I've drafted already, I'd consider him in the 4th (pretty sure his ADP is mid-4th). If I knew I could land him in the 5th, it'd almost be a no-brainer, at least in my mind.
According to this ADP Collins has been selected 68th the 28th RB selected.mid 6th round.

I would rather have Collins than several of the RB selected ahead of him, such as Coleman, Drake, K. Johnson, Ingram, R. Freeman

From this perspective he offers value at this price point. I don't know if this will last? Maybe ADP is going to climb for him, but nice to get a player later who I would have taken ahead of several other RB.

Jay Ajayi is going one pick after Collins. I would be pretty happy with either of these RB for that price.

 
Just as a point of comparison, in Biabreakable's post Collins ADP is 68th, which in my 16 teamer actually has him in the 5th round. How many RBs at that ADP the past 5 years have given you high RB2-low RB1 value for a season from the start (no injury to give them a windfall of playing time)?

Unless for some reason Baltimore takes the starting job away in preseason you target Collins.

 
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He's so much fun to watch as he bounces into and off defenders, keeping his legs churning until he finds some space and then he explodes. Is he a special back? No, not really. However he runs hard, has some very good balance and has no quit in him. If he sees volume, he'll rack up yards.
I don't know if he's "special" either, but maybe he is. No sense in arguing semantics. He has good vision and great fluidity. I noticed him make some great cuts last year. And as you said he never goes down on his own.  

I don't think I'm the only one confident Collins is a good running back. The concern is maybe they want to give Kenneth Dixon a shot. He may or may not be good. Most 4th round running backs have potential, but how many of them actually work out? I don't think it's high. This seems like a small risk against a running back we've already seen succeed in the NFL.

 
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Just as a point of comparison, in Biabreakable's post Collins ADP is 68th, which in my 16 teamer actually has him in the 5th round. How many RBs at that ADP the past 5 years have given you high RB2-low RB1 value for a season from the start (no injury to give them a windfall of playing time)?

Unless for some reason Baltimore takes the starting job away in preseason you target Collins.
At the start of the season is a qualifier that doesn't include Jay Ajayi 2016 where he was a RB one in his great games, 3 of those and I think I was getting him in the 8th round or perhaps even later after Foster won the starting job.

A nice thing about the tool however is that it does allow us to look at ADP from previous seasons.

For 2017 PPR scoring

Mark Ingram pick 63 finished as RB 6 

CJ Anderson pick 69 finished as RB 18

Alvin Kamara pick 73 finished RB 3

Kareem Hunt pick 81 finished RB 4

Duke Johnson pick 97 finished RB 11

2016

Melvin Gordon 64 finished RB 7

LeSean McCoy 71 finished RB 4

Jay Ajayi 92 RB 11

Frank Gore 171 RB 12

2015

Danny Woodhead 68 RB 3

Doug Martin 101 RB 4

Devonta Freeman 106 RB 1

Frank Gore 114 RB 14

2014

Lamar Miller 103 RB 9

Jeremy Hill 110 RB 10

Frank Gore 134 RB 21

Mark Ingram 159 RB 14

CJ Anderson 191 RB 11

Ahmad Bradshaw 321 RB 22

Justin Forsett 359 RB 8

It actually happens a lot, and I have actually benefited from a lot of these.

This is the main thing that makes zero RB or upside down drafting viable, if you can also land some of these late round RB picks who end up being starters for a good chunk of the season. It certainly happens enough, the question is will you target the right guys or not.

 
I don't know if he's "special" either, but maybe he is. No sense in arguing semantics. He has good vision and great fluidity. I noticed him make some great cuts last year. And as you said he never goes down on his own.  

I don't think I'm the only one confident Collins is a good running back. The concern is maybe they want to give Kenneth Dixon a shot. He may or may not be good. Most 4th round running backs have potential, but how many of them actually work out? I don't think it's high. This seems like a small risk against a running back we've already seen succeed in the NFL.
Agree they will want to give Dixon some run, despite his PED violation, substance abuse violation etc. etc.  

Dixon caps Collins some but in the end I think Collins is just too damn good for Dixon to make too much of a dent.

 
Brian Jester‏ @BrianJesterFF  FollowFollow @BrianJesterFF

Brian Jester Retweeted Brandon Thorn

From @SharpFootball's book (it's great, buy it): "[Alex] Collins' 50% Success Rate ranked 4th among 32 RBs with 150+ carries, behind only Gurley, Zeke, & Dion Lewis." He also faced the 8th-most difficult run schedule. And had the #1 most injured OL. He's a value this season.

Brian Jester added,

Brandon Thorn @VeteranScout

Writing about the Ravens ground game under Greg Roman last season. Haven't seen a more diverse, creative pro running game than this one. The definition of "multiple," that evolved each week based on opponent. So much variation.

11:20 AM - 29 Jun 2018

 
PPR is the Devil, Biabreakable. I'm talking in a standard league.

With the start of Yahoo leagues today, a lot of the writers seem to like Collins.

 
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