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TZMarkie

Your 5 ABSOLUTE "DO NOT DRAFT" 2018 redraft players

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My   (Your 5 "MUST HAVES" in redraft for 2018) thread has been interesting so far, and I appreciate the responses. It will no doubt change a bit as the preseason progresses. Hopefully there are no serious injuries, but we all know there will be a few.

That thread is here ~~~~~~~~ >   https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/768303-your-5-must-haves-in-redraft-for-2018/

 

 On the flip side, this is usually even MORE IMPORTANT to (me) and most fantasy players for several reasons.  I don't want to get someone in the select few leagues I play in, only to be "burned" by said player and regret it the rest of the season. Have you ever told yourself mid season "I knew not to draft that P.O.S.~!!!, I didn't want him all preseason and said I wouldn't draft him"...?  :wall:

 

 All this aside, these are 5 of my ABSOLUTE DO NOT DRAFT players for 2018.

 

 SAQUON BARKLEY -  This is a tough one.  I hate to even say it, as it makes me a bit queasy as I absolutely LOVE the upside and potential workload. But the fact is, he is a rookie. He is currently being drafted inside the top 10. He has never had a single snap at the NFL level.  While I love the talent and upside, in my first 2-3 rounds in drafts I am looking for absolute iron-clad top end production.  Do I think I *COULD* get that from him??? Certainly. But I would more than likely figure him to be a top end RB2 with the "sky is the limit" upside, likely finishing around the top 10 mark. He could well lead the league and break records, but  personally I would rather have ANTONIO BROWN , and its not even close.

 

 ALVIN KAMARA -  Again, I get all the band wagoners. His efficiency was off the charts last season. Don't kid yourself, do you really think he is far and away the most efficient back in league history??? (If you do, go stock up on his rookie and rookie auto cards, and memorabilia) Regression is coming boys, period, end of story.  Sure, I know Ingram is sidelined for several weeks, and he may get a bit more of a workload, but the Saints have already come out and said they want to keep his workload down. (I forget the exact quote)   This is yet another case where I would likely rather have a top 2-3 WR than Kamara, and I will sleep easier because of it. 

 

 DESHAUN WATSON - This may be obvious for most of you. The fantasy community is down on drafting QBs early, and truth be known, I have ALWAYS been that way.  (I also mentioned somewhere on this board last year I didn't want AARON RODGERS for several reasons, including injury risk.) I wasn't looking to burn an early round pick, that I could focus on a top end WR or RB was the majority of that.  I watched Watson go off last season, and it was exciting , no doubt.  But its unsustainable (Read Kamara above) and many aren't paying attention that the defense should be improved, leading to less shootouts. His ADP is roughly pick 45. No thanks, I will get Luck, or someone else far later and stock up at WR or RB early  instead.

 

 KAREEM HUNT - Here is one I have not heard any expert fading, or at least not that I can remember. Look back at his 2017 stats, it was far more boom and bust than people want to admit. Everyone loves him since he went off in weeks 14-15-16, where he got three massive workloads in a row. FANTASY PLAYOFFS!!!! :excited:  He had great numbers in 3 weeks early, then to bookend the season. (1-2-3, 14-15-16) His stretch from 8 through week 13 was pretty bad, when you have to consider his massive draft capital.  Let us not forget SPENCER WARE should ultimately return. Is he going to crush the Hunt workload, no..... but all things considered I think I will stay away from this situation. There are other players far more interesting to me inside the top 10 (where he is going). Give me a stud WR any day all day there instead.

 

THE CLEVELAND BROWNS RB CAROUSEL OF DEATH - I have fallen into this trap too many times, including last year and the Isaiah Crowell "the O line is the best in the league" bull####.  I'm just not interested. I liked CARLOS HYDE  last season, and utilized him effectively in a ppr/points per touch league. I liked his Shanahan SF scenario.  But I am not keen on the Browns scattershot running attack, as it could easily be a complete cesspool of a 3 back committee.  (I argued they should have taken Barkely at #1 in the draft and QB du jour at pick 4, but after signing Hyde in the offseason, I knew that wasn't going to happen) :wall:   You think they won't use Hyde???  You think they won't use Duke Johnson???  Even if you are a believer in Nick Chubb, as I am, exactly how much work do you think he will get in this scenario, unless Hyde gets injured?     I suppose if I had a gun to my head, and had to pick one, give me Chubb very late, and see if he goes berserk or an injury occurs.  I am not trying to hit a parlay of events to get one of my running backs to be productive, so I will be steering clear of this Cleveland mess.

 

NOTE - I do want to go on record, and state in extremely close top end  RB vs.WR scenarios, I would much rather go with stud WRs, over the similar RBs, strictly because of the health risks and the fact that the RBs generally miss more time. I can load up on RBs later in drafts and get solid production once the injuries start to take place as the season chugs along.

 

 I have a few more I will post late in the thread.

 Who all are you choosing as your 5 "ABSOLUTE DO NOT DRAFT" this season in your redrafts...??

 

 TZM

 

 

Edited by TZMarkie
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Derek Carr- week 15 he was scrambling and dove for the end zone late in a Sunday night game. He fumbles into the end zone, so I lost 2 pts for the lost fumble which  brought me from a win to a tie, and lost the tiebreaker, and a shot at the championship (which I would have won handily.) Never again Derek Carr!

Shady- legal worries aside, I was avoiding him before any of that stuff. 

David Johnson- if he slipped to the back end of the 1st I’d pull the trigger, but as a top 4 pick coming off an injury and with a new coaching staff I’m not feeling great about it. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Derek Carr- week 15 he was scrambling and dove for the end zone late in a Sunday night game. He fumbles into the end zone, so I lost 2 pts for the lost fumble which  brought me from a win to a tie, and lost the tiebreaker, and a shot at the championship (which I would have won handily.) Never again Derek Carr!

Shady- legal worries aside, I was avoiding him before any of that stuff. 

David Johnson- if he slipped to the back end of the 1st I’d pull the trigger, but as a top 4 pick coming off an injury and with a new coaching staff I’m not feeling great about it. 

 

 

 I agree 100% on Carr and LeSean McCoy.  (I suppose if McCoy fell to me super late I might snag him, but that won't happen) I also seem to remember you venting about Carr and his antics, maybe it was in the bragging/grieving thread. :wall:  Can't remember.

 

 I don't mind DJ though. People forget he was ready to go late season last year, but what was the need in putting him out there when they were clearly out of the playoff picture?  Plus remember, even though its not a "great" team around him, if he isn't the focal point of that offense (and Larry Fitz), then who is?   I just don't see a scenario where he doesn't get 300+ touches, and sign me up for that~!  (also his injury was a wrist injury, hardly an issue for a RB, I'm much more fearful of knee or leg issues)

If you didn't own him when he blew up, you may not realize what a great season he had....not saying I think he will repeat that, but he should rightfully be the centerpiece of that offense. Again, 300 + touches won't shock me.

 

 TZM

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14 minutes ago, TZMarkie said:

 

 I agree 100% on Carr and LeSean McCoy.  (I suppose if McCoy fell to me super late I might snag him, but that won't happen) I also seem to remember you venting about Carr and his antics, maybe it was in the bragging/grieving thread. :wall:  Can't remember.

 

 I don't mind DJ though. People forget he was ready to go late season last year, but what was the need in putting him out there when they were clearly out of the playoff picture?  Plus remember, even though its not a "great" team around him, if he isn't the focal point of that offense (and Larry Fitz), then who is?   I just don't see a scenario where he doesn't get 300+ touches, and sign me up for that~!  (also his injury was a wrist injury, hardly an issue for a RB, I'm much more fearful of knee or leg issues)

If you didn't own him when he blew up, you may not realize what a great season he had....not saying I think he will repeat that, but he should rightfully be the centerpiece of that offense. Again, 300 + touches won't shock me.

 

 TZM

Yes, I’ve vented about carr in multiple threads including the crowing thread. Not really groundbreaking analysis, just a guy that I’ll never draft again out of spite. 

I agree that DJ was/is great, and it isn’t so much the injury that scares me as it is the staff/team, although I’m always a little concerned after someone is away from the game for a long period. Arians didn’t shy away from going through DJ, but what will the new coaches do? I suppose the top WRs have some ?? too but I think I’m more comfortable trading back or taking AB. 

I also said I wouldn’t draft Sony michel in dynasty yet here I am a michel owner (and kicking myself at this point.)

 

 

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I'm with you on Kamara, that doesn't mean that I don't think he's a nice player or whatever. But like you said, is this guy really going to be able to produce with that kind of efficiency again? I say no way and will gladly take Gordon, Fournette and Hunt over him, which will likely mean I will have zero shares of Kamara come week 1. 

 

JuJu's price seems awfully high to me, at his current ADP there are several #1 WR available who should all see more targets than JuJu. Lots of mouths to feed in Pitsburgh, especially if Washington emerges and demands a few extra looks a game. 

 

 

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I think a lot of people have jumped off the Kamara bandwagon for whatever reason.  But he’s got that backfield to himself first 4 games.  I get the concern though.  He was crazy efficient last year.

Davante Adams - 2 concussions last year.  Is the leash short?

Aaron Rodgers - Still QB1, but depth at the position is ridiculous and I wonder if with the shaky nature of his WR corps if a 2015 style letdown season isn’t in play here.

Lesean McCoy - The hammer of NFL ‘justice’ can swing at any time.  And that offense looks putrid.

Allen Robinson - I’m tapping the brakes on the Bears being an offensive juggernaut immediately.  A lot of ‘new’ to work in there.  Not everyone is McVay.

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Sony Michel - Moreso now that he's got the knee issue, but he hasn't solved his ball security issues and BB will have none of that.

Alvin Kamara - Regression looms; too spendy at his ADP

McKinnon - Not a believer

Theilan - Prefer Diggs in this tossup

Lynch - Believe Martin wins this job

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2 hours ago, candian fantasy guy said:

I'm with you on Kamara, that doesn't mean that I don't think he's a nice player or whatever. But like you said, is this guy really going to be able to produce with that kind of efficiency again?

Does he have to?  Seems like everyone expects regression from Kamara, so that is already baked into his ADP.  He finished as RB3 last year but his ADP is RB6.  If people weren't expecting regression he would be in the conversation with Gurley/Bell for the 1st pick, so a dropoff is already expected to some extent.

He's probably still too expensive, but I just thought it was worth noting that the talk should be more about how large the regression will be rather than whether or not there will be one.  Because you already don't have to pay for that 2017 efficiency.

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24 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Does he have to?  Seems like everyone expects regression from Kamara, so that is already baked into his ADP.  He finished as RB3 last year but his ADP is RB6.  If people weren't expecting regression he would be in the conversation with Gurley/Bell for the 1st pick, so a dropoff is already expected to some extent.

He's probably still too expensive, but I just thought it was worth noting that the talk should be more about how large the regression will be rather than whether or not there will be one.  Because you already don't have to pay for that 2017 efficiency.

Also the probable loss of efficiency can be overcome by an increase in volume. Now he’s sure to get that during Weeks 1-4, but I think it was inevitable anyway.

Admittedly there are safer options in Round 1, and with pick 4 I won’t have to make a decision on him - but I’m not automatically assuming that when he goes off the board at 5-7 his new owners made some kind of mistake.

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28 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Does he have to?  Seems like everyone expects regression from Kamara, so that is already baked into his ADP.  He finished as RB3 last year but his ADP is RB6.  If people weren't expecting regression he would be in the conversation with Gurley/Bell for the 1st pick, so a dropoff is already expected to some extent.

He's probably still too expensive, but I just thought it was worth noting that the talk should be more about how large the regression will be rather than whether or not there will be one.  Because you already don't have to pay for that 2017 efficiency.

I like the guys who will get 200+ carries plus a bunch of catches over the guy that might get 200-220 touches overall. I could end up being 100% wrong here, but that is my stance currently.

 

I also got burned by Sproles as a late first round pick years ago after a hyper effective season in NO. I see lots of similarities in Kamara and the 2018 season. 

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Once again going a bit more off the radar with my selections but it should provide some interesting discussion/thoughts for others.

  • TE Kyle Rudolph: His 2016 season looks like a massive aberration and his 2017 was more in line with what he's shown throughout his career. Despite his talent, he's never quite lived up to it and barely passed 500 yards last year. I don't think he'll sniff 600+ yards and there are a bevy of other TEs with higher upside I'd rather target.
  • WR Mike Wallace: A bit overrated. Flashed in 2016 thanks to Flacco chucking the ball up 672 times. For a supposed burner, he's never quite been the big play threat that most have envisioned and he's wildly inconsistent in his ability to catch the ball in general. Hard Pass.
  • WR Randall Cobb: Feel like his best FF years may be behind him. Has struggled with injuries the past 2 seasons and his YPR steeply dropped from the 14 range to 10.5, 10.2, and 9.9 last year. At that rate he'd need around 80-90 catches to be a legitimate factor and I can't see that happening with Aaron Rodgers at QB.
  • QB Tyrod Taylor: I just don't see it with him. I get a faster, worse Kyle Orton vibe from him at QB and I see his move to Cleveland being a lateral one at best. He had his issues in Buffalo but I don't think it's a coincidence that his YPA the last 2 years was just 6.9 and 6.7 even with a poor WR group around him. WRs can mask a QB sometimes but the majority of cases are usually the other way around with QBs making their WRs better.
  • QB Cam Newton: His 2015's looking more and more like an aberration. At some point, the blame has to fall at his feet as far as not taking that next step into being an elite FF option as a passing QB. He'll be 29 years old this year and he put up a career high 754 yards rushing last year. His completion rate has been miserable for an NFL level QB in this day & age, now he's packaged with Norv Turner who loves to throw deep vertically rather than giving him easier, safe completions that can sustain drives, and he simply doesn't throw the ball much in general (just 2 years over 500 pass attempts but one was as a rookie). Last 2 years in a pretty standard scoring Fantasy League he's finished QB5 (just ahead of Stafford, Cousins, and Rivers by 2-4 FP) and QB18 (6 points ahead of ELITE Joe Flacco). I'll let somebody else ride him chasing his 2015 MVP Season.
Edited by DawnBTVS
Fixed the 500 PA stat
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6 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

David Johnson- if he slipped to the back end of the 1st I’d pull the trigger, but as a top 4 pick coming off an injury and with a new coaching staff I’m not feeling great about it. 

 

It was a wrist injury. I am also not high on him (McCoy as the OC, bad o-line, questionable QB play) but injury should not be a concern.

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Sammy Watkins - Some season he may prove me wrong, but he’s never lived up to the hype.

David Njoku - Simply not enough passes to go around. 

Adam Thielen - I actually think having Cousins‘ stronger arm hurts Thielen. 

Lesean McCoy - Nothing groundbreaking here. 30 and a bad offense. 

Tom Brady - From where he gets drafted, he’s just not putting up the fantasy numbers to justify it any longer. 

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It seems like the stated or implied caveat to most of these posts is “unless he dropped a lot.”

i am most interested in players that you would not draft even if they dropped a significant amount from their ADP.

For me, a significant amount would be a half round for the top 6-10 players, a full round for all other players in the first five rounds, and 1.5 to two rounds for players taken rounds 6-12 (any player with an ADP beyond the 12th round can’t really be talked about as dropping).

Are there any players you would not draft even if they dropped a significant amount?

I would not draft McCoy even if he fell a round in redraft.  I own him in dynasty and hope I am wrong, but The vibes there are all bad.

I would not draft Rodgers, or any of the top 8 QBs within a round of current ADP.  That position is just too deep.  I will happily wait and go QBBC with two or three QB2s.

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Guys that I just don't ever find myself drafting:

 

Kenyan Drake: small sample size, was never a feature back in college either, questions about durability, the Dolphins seemed to have tried avoiding letting him get PT until they had no more options. 

Alex Collins: low draft pick, cut by a team with weak RB competition, took injury and suspension to get a shot. Not sure how committed the Ravens really are to him and how much scoring this offense will do, unlikely to be a big pass catcher

Tyreek Hill: I know he is pretty much the fastest guy in the league but I don't see how even he can sustain that level of production on long TDs. Add in a new potential target hog in Sammy and a rookie QB replaced an MVP candidate and his ADP is just way too rich for me.

Greg Olsen: He is getting up there in age, I don't like the recent track record of pass catchers and broken bones in the feet, there has never been more quality competition for targets in Carolina with CMc, Funchess and Moore. Plus it has been a low volume passing offense. 

Dalvin Cook: His ADP makes him undraftable for me. Where is the injury discount? We are talking about a RB coming off a torn ACL. He has played in 3.5 games in his career- incredibly small sample size and in those 3.5 games, their back-up RB was recovering from an injury. Are we sure Murray isn't going to get a lot of GL work? 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Guys that I just don't ever find myself drafting:

 

Kenyan Drake: small sample size, was never a feature back in college either, questions about durability, the Dolphins seemed to have tried avoiding letting him get PT until they had no more options. 

Alex Collins: low draft pick, cut by a team with weak RB competition, took injury and suspension to get a shot. Not sure how committed the Ravens really are to him and how much scoring this offense will do, unlikely to be a big pass catcher

Tyreek Hill: I know he is pretty much the fastest guy in the league but I don't see how even he can sustain that level of production on long TDs. Add in a new potential target hog in Sammy and a rookie QB replaced an MVP candidate and his ADP is just way too rich for me.

Greg Olsen: He is getting up there in age, I don't like the recent track record of pass catchers and broken bones in the feet, there has never been more quality competition for targets in Carolina with CMc, Funchess and Moore. Plus it has been a low volume passing offense. 

Dalvin Cook: His ADP makes him undraftable for me. Where is the injury discount? We are talking about a RB coming off a torn ACL. He has played in 3.5 games in his career- incredibly small sample size and in those 3.5 games, their back-up RB was recovering from an injury. Are we sure Murray isn't going to get a lot of GL work? 

This seems like a 'who I'm targeting" list to me.

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18 minutes ago, Deamon said:

This seems like a 'who I'm targeting" list to me.

Obviously lots of people here like them which is part of why they are on my list. It's not that I hate these guys or would never draft them. It's just there are players in their ADP range I consistently like better. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

 It's not that I hate these guys or would never draft them.

Posted in an "ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DRAFT" thread

:loco:

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14 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Posted in an "ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DRAFT" thread

:loco:

I think it’s understood that if Ezekiel Elliott was available in the 3rd, everyone would draft him whether you love or hate him.  The thread title assumes that at guys’ current ADP they are do not draft candidates.

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1 minute ago, NoCheese said:

I think it’s understood that if Ezekiel Elliott was available in the 3rd, everyone would draft him whether you love or hate him.  The thread title assumes that at guys’ current ADP they are do not draft candidates.

I wouldn't say its AT their current ADP, but anywhere near it.  It's relative, but I'd say posting in an all caps, "DO NOT DRAFT" doesn't mean you don't like the guy at his 3.3 adp but would take him at 3.6.  Would have to mean you really hate the guy where he's being drafted and wouldn't even consider him in that round or maybe even the next round.

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Just now, Deamon said:

I wouldn't say its AT their current ADP, but anywhere near it.  It's relative, but I'd say posting in an all caps, "DO NOT DRAFT" doesn't mean you don't like the guy at his 3.3 adp but would take him at 3.6.  Would have to mean you really hate the guy where he's being drafted and wouldn't even consider him in that round or maybe even the next round.

Fair point.  “Anywhere near their current ADP” is maybe the best way to re-title it.

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2 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

It seems like the stated or implied caveat to most of these posts is “unless he dropped a lot.”

i am most interested in players that you would not draft even if they dropped a significant amount from their ADP.

For me, a significant amount would be a half round for the top 6-10 players, a full round for all other players in the first five rounds, and 1.5 to two rounds for players taken rounds 6-12 (any player with an ADP beyond the 12th round can’t really be talked about as dropping).

Are there any players you would not draft even if they dropped a significant amount?

I would not draft McCoy even if he fell a round in redraft.  I own him in dynasty and hope I am wrong, but The vibes there are all bad.

I would not draft Rodgers, or any of the top 8 QBs within a round of current ADP.  That position is just too deep.  I will happily wait and go QBBC with two or three QB2s.

This clears it up quite a bit.

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You guys have hit some good ones already. A few others -

Doug Baldwin - don’t think he’s going to play all 16 games

Jags D - have to take them too early

Joe Mixon - not feeling the hype

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

Posted in an "ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DRAFT" thread

:loco:

I listed guys with pretty high ADPs.They were Rd 2-5 players. I refuse to draft any of them because of their price tag. Absolutely no way I pay a top 20 pick on Dalvin Cook. There are other players with who are better bets at that spot IMO. In auction, I think 20% is just too big of a price to pay for him-  I could get Guice + Ertz or Keenan Allen or Jordan Howard + Chris Hogan. No way in the world I bite at these players costs. If Cook was going mid 3rd round or at $10, I would be ok with drafting them. Imagine sitting down at a restaurant and the guys Iisted are cheeseburgers going for steak prices. I like cheeseburgers but I am not paying steak prices for one. If they charge cheeseburger prices, then sure, I might consider ordering a cheeseburger. 

 

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Can we also say '5 teams I will not draft players from?'

1. Bears, 2. Redskins, 3. Seahawks, 4. Colts, 5. Raiders

players:

K. Hunt, J. Ajayi ,AJ Green, D. Johnson,  OBJ

I've seen enough of OBJ's antics to realize he's just a flar-up away from being benched, or suspended for fighting with someone or whatever. his y/rec avg has plummeted each year he's been in the NFL except his outlier 2015 season.ypg has also plummeted since he turned pro. recs/game is just 6.4 or less since 2014. his #'s have trending downward and yet I hear no one talking about it. not interested.

 AJ Green is too. Ajayi will NEVER be the main guy in Philly no matter what we collectively wish..he wont have more than about 200 carries ( check stats on Pedersons RB usage thru the years) . Sproles is back.Clement is hanging around. 

D. Johnson - B. Arians is gone, new QB situation ( might be better than Palmer who knows). DJ hasn't played in many games since 2016 I'm just  not sure he's worthy of a top 4 pick, let a lone a top 25 pick. I wouldn't take a stab at him at his ADP

Hunt can't possibly repeat what he did last season.the stars aligned for him. Career year from Smith, etc..now he gets Mahomes at QB, an INT machine ( only start for him in the NFL - no TD, 1 int ..get used to that). 8-man fronts. no thanks.

I would like to know if the people who make Kamara out to be a castaway are the same people who :wub: over David Johnson as a fantasy god.. what has DJ done that Kamara has not? Kamara is in an infinitely better position with a better offense, a top 3 O-line, hof QB, MUCH improved defense, great WRs, wide-open attack and he has great hands..he's a better version of DJ in a better spot and yet somehow people kick the guy to the curb..wow. 

Kamara gets no respect? too funny.. 

Edited by Tanner9919
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25 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

Can we also say '5 teams I will not draft players from?'

1. Bears, 2. Redskins, 3. Seahawks, 4. Colts, 5. Raiders

players:

K. Hunt, J. Ajayi ,AJ Green, D. Johnson,  OBJ

I've seen enough of OBJ's antics to realize he's just a flar-up away from being benched, or suspended for fighting with someone or whatever. his y/rec avg has plummeted each year he's been in the NFL except his outlier 2015 season.ypg has also plummeted since he turned pro. recs/game is just 6.4 or less since 2014. his #'s have trending downward and yet I hear no one talking about it. not interested.

 AJ Green is too. Ajayi will NEVER be the main guy in Philly no matter what we collectively wish..he wont have more than about 200 carries ( check stats on Pedersons RB usage thru the years) . Sproles is back.Clement is hanging around. 

D. Johnson - B. Arians is gone, new QB situation ( might be better than Palmer who knows). DJ hasn't played in many games since 2016 I'm just  not sure he's worthy of a top 4 pick, let a lone a top 25 pick. I wouldn't take a stab at him at his ADP

Hunt can't possibly repeat what he did last season.the stars aligned for him. Career year from Smith, etc..now he gets Mahomes at QB, an INT machine ( only start for him in the NFL - no TD, 1 int ..get used to that). 8-man fronts. no thanks.

I would like to know if the people who make Kamara out to be a castaway are the same people who :wub: over David Johnson as a fantasy god.. what has DJ done that Kamara has not? Kamara is in an infinitely better position with a better offense, a top 3 O-line, hof QB, MUCH improved defense, great WRs, wide-open attack and he has great hands..he's a better version of DJ in a better spot and yet somehow people kick the guy to the curb..wow. 

Kamara gets no respect? too funny.. 

DJ is the rare 3down + goal line bell-cow fantasy back that also catches a lot of balls.

I don’t own him anywhere (and I do own Kamara) but that is the profile you want for a top six RB pick.

Edited by Brisco54
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Big Ben and, by extension Antonio Brown hold little interest for me. With where they are being drafted respectively I will almost definitely draft other options.

Big Been is incredibly streaky with his home/road splits and he is almost a lock to miss 2-3 games. I don't have enough confidence in their backup QBs to Target Antonio despite his clear awesomeness.

I honestly don't want to have the 3rd pick in my draft because I have strong reservations about Bell, DJ & Kamara but I would probably still take Bell there so he doesn't qualify for this list.

I usually prefer drafting in the middle of rounds but this year I desperately want top 2.

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Definitely LeSean McCoy even before the... whatever is going on there. Offensive line, QBs & WRs all look like aspiring to mediocre would be a win.

He's older, always dinged, though he's generally good at getting on the field I hate that he's an injury report nightmare. Plus hes high mileage and getting long in the tooth.

Won't be on my teams.

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Alshon Jeffrey. I don't think the volume will be there, he is another injury report guy, has been remarkably mediocre with his catch % throughout his career, is too dependent on TDs for fantasy relevance and may be the 3rd or 4th option in Philly's passing game.

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10 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Yes, I’ve vented about carr in multiple threads including the crowing thread. Not really groundbreaking analysis, just a guy that I’ll never draft again out of spite

This is a valid reason to never draft someone again in FF.

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1.  J. McKinnon - ADP #21 Overall - my most overvalued player of 2018

2.  M. Gordon - ADP #9 Overall - I just don't trust his talent or his durability...so many other solid players at this ADP

3.  Kenyan Drake - ADP 4.06 - Don't trust his durability and Gore is going to eat into his early down touches

4.  Allen Robinson - ADP 4.10 - A ton of better WR value at this ADP

5.  Julian Edelman - ADP 6.6 - Old, misses games to injury, and is suspended

Edited by TripItUp
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26 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Alshon Jeffrey. I don't think the volume will be there, he is another injury report guy, has been remarkably mediocre with his catch % throughout his career, is too dependent on TDs for fantasy relevance and may be the 3rd or 4th option in Philly's passing game.

:goodposting:

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12 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

1.  J. McKinnon - ADP #21 Overall - my most overvalued player of 2018

2.  M. Gordon - ADP #9 Overall - I just don't trust his talent or his durability...so many other solid players at this ADPJu

3.  Kenyan Drake - ADP 4.06 - Don't trust his durability and Gore is going to eat in to his early down touches

4.  Allen Robinson - ADP 4.10 - A ton of better WR value at this ADP

5.  Julian Edelman - ADP 6.6 - Old, misses games to injury, and is suspended

i agree on drake. edelman prob also with suspension. others are must draft for me in PPR

1) McKinnon - system fit and follow the money. hyde was really good and not near the pass catcher. shanny see Freeman 2.0 in him. Mccaffery is going way too high even PPR for a guy who wont score many TDs.

2) Gordon - never sexy but volume volume volume. a bellcow on a really good offense with no TE'

3) A Rob - #1 WR on his team who will be trailing a lot with Nagy offensive guru.

My Dont Draft at their ADP

QB Watson

RB Drake Collins 

WR Jeffrey Gordon

Edited by Heisenberg23
.

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg23 said:

 

2) Gordon - never sexy but volume volume volume. a bellcow on a really good offense with no TE'

 

 

players going after Gordon that I like more than Gordon.

Hunt

Fournette

Cook

Nobody is doubting that Gordon has a solid floor, it's just that the three RBs going after him have higher ceilings.

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I like all 3 you mentioned but Gordon 1st here is why

hunt - dont trust Reid and Ware coming back . 

Fournette - made of glass, doesnt fight thru injuries. poor qb

Cook - coming off major injury. new qb/system. lot of mouths to feed. latavius more of a threat than eckler.

All 3 are solid rbs and more flashy than Gordon. but MG will have most volume and TDs.

1st 2 rounds i want solid low floor guys.

Edited by Heisenberg23

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I think it would have to be the 8th or 9th round before I’d consider Ajayi. That’s going to be a split backfield where he isn’t going to see target share and may split or not have goal line work. No thanks. 

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I don't really blacklist players as much as avoid certain offenses like the plague.

NYJ

TEN

BUF

CLE

BAL

TB

SEA

This year.  With very few exceptions a player would have to go way way cheap for me to bite.  Even then after I bit I'd immediately have remorse.

 

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3 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Can we also say '5 teams I will not draft players from?'

1. Bears, 2. Redskins, 3. Seahawks, 4. Colts, 5. Raiders

players:

K. Hunt, J. Ajayi ,AJ Green, D. Johnson,  OBJ

I've seen enough of OBJ's antics to realize he's just a flar-up away from being benched, or suspended for fighting with someone or whatever. his y/rec avg has plummeted each year he's been in the NFL except his outlier 2015 season.ypg has also plummeted since he turned pro. recs/game is just 6.4 or less since 2014. his #'s have trending downward and yet I hear no one talking about it. not interested.

 AJ Green is too. Ajayi will NEVER be the main guy in Philly no matter what we collectively wish..he wont have more than about 200 carries ( check stats on Pedersons RB usage thru the years) . Sproles is back.Clement is hanging around. 

D. Johnson - B. Arians is gone, new QB situation ( might be better than Palmer who knows). DJ hasn't played in many games since 2016 I'm just  not sure he's worthy of a top 4 pick, let a lone a top 25 pick. I wouldn't take a stab at him at his ADP

Hunt can't possibly repeat what he did last season.the stars aligned for him. Career year from Smith, etc..now he gets Mahomes at QB, an INT machine ( only start for him in the NFL - no TD, 1 int ..get used to that). 8-man fronts. no thanks.

I would like to know if the people who make Kamara out to be a castaway are the same people who :wub: over David Johnson as a fantasy god.. what has DJ done that Kamara has not? Kamara is in an infinitely better position with a better offense, a top 3 O-line, hof QB, MUCH improved defense, great WRs, wide-open attack and he has great hands..he's a better version of DJ in a better spot and yet somehow people kick the guy to the curb..wow. 

Kamara gets no respect? too funny.. 

why Bears and Colts?  I can see being skeptical of their high ADP players, but I think that Nagy and Reich have a chance to really breathe new life in there, so I like the possibility of upside from later-drafted players (Miller, Hines, Luck)

I definitely agree on AJ Green.  Not enough upside at this point in his career and in the offense to justify a pick in the first 2 rounds.

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in a general sense, it seems like a better year to avoid high-price RB.  Many of the rankings seem really top-heavy on RBs.  I just think by the percentages, they won't live up to the hype.  I feel a lot safer with the top 5 WR and especially prefer AB and Hopkins to any RB.

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2 hours ago, matuski said:

I don't really blacklist players as much as avoid certain offenses like the plague.

NYJ

TEN

BUF

CLE

BAL

TB

SEA

This year.  With very few exceptions a player would have to go way way cheap for me to bite.  Even then after I bit I'd immediately have remorse.

 

That’s like a 1/4 of the league.

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52 minutes ago, Titletown_Favres said:

AJ green is a steal late 2nd Ppr .

Also I don’t like the Rb2 you end up with if you take a round 1 WR. 

I could see that.  I guess it depends on league size and draft position.  I tend to be more of a mid/late-round volume RB guy because I am skeptical of the overall percentage of higher ADP RBs working out.

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AJ Green had  a pedestrian 1078 yards and 8TDs last year and was fully healthy.

One of the most overvalued WRs this year with an ADP of 2.08.

Larry Fitzgerald had 1156 yards and 6 TDs last year and is going a full two round later.

 

HARD PASS on overrated AJ Green

Edited by TripItUp
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Aj had a down year and was still top 10 PpR Wr last year with Dalton and the OL stinking. He is being drafted at his absolute floor.

I like Fitz a lot and think he is value but won’t duplicate last year. 

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4 hours ago, Chaka said:

Big Ben and, by extension Antonio Brown hold little interest for me. With where they are being drafted respectively I will almost definitely draft other options.

Big Been is incredibly streaky with his home/road splits and he is almost a lock to miss 2-3 games. I don't have enough confidence in their backup QBs to Target Antonio despite his clear awesomeness.

I honestly don't want to have the 3rd pick in my draft because I have strong reservations about Bell, DJ & Kamara but I would probably still take Bell there so he doesn't qualify for this list.

I usually prefer drafting in the middle of rounds but this year I desperately want top 2.

Actually, I am targeting Big Ben this year. I think the window is closing and the Steelers know it. This is their year to get to the AFC finals. Haley is gone and replaced by the QB coach, which I think will only help Ben. I read somewhere (and I apologize if I am wrong) that the number 1 QB in fantasy last year from week 10 on was Big Ben. Reports are he is in better shape this year than he has been in a long time and I really think that Ben (paired with either Alex Smith or Mariota) will be a solid QB1 this year. 

 

P.S. Everyone talks about Ben not being able to win on the road, but, in 2016 Pittsburgh finished 11-5, and Ben only lost 3 away games and won 4 away games.In 2017 they finished 13-3. Ben only lost 1 away game and won 7. Pretty sure only Tom Brady has a better away win record last two years.

Edited by Keith1
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21 minutes ago, Titletown_Favres said:

Aj had a down year and was still top 10 PpR Wr last year with Dalton and the OL stinking. He is being drafted at his absolute floor.

I like Fitz a lot and think he is value but won’t duplicate last year. 

2nd Round is not his floor...he is being drafted at his ceiling.

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20 minutes ago, Keith1 said:

Actually, I am targeting Big Ben this year. I think the window is closing and the Steelers know it. This is their year to get to the AFC finals. Haley is gone and replaced by the QB coach, which I think will only help Ben. I read somewhere (and I apologize if I am wrong) that the number 1 QB in fantasy last year from week 10 on was Big Ben. Reports are he is in better shape this year than he has been in a long time and I really think that Ben (paired with either Alex Smith or Mariota) will be a solid QB1 this year. 

 

P.S. Everyone talks about Ben not being able to win on the road, but, in 2016 Pittsburgh finished 11-5, and Ben only lost 3 away games and won 4 away games.In 2017 they finished 13-3. Ben only lost 1 away game and won 7. Pretty sure only Tom Brady has a better away win record last two years.

Ben threw for 62 yards and 0.5 TD per game more at home than on the road last year. In 2016, he was 81 yards and 2.2 TD per game better at home. In 2015, he was 40 yards and 1.8 TD better per game at home.  Bottom line, Rowthlisberger’s fantasy numbers are way bett playing at home. 

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Ben threw for 62 yards and 0.5 TD per game more at home than on the road last year. In 2016, he was 81 yards and 2.2 TD per game better at home. In 2015, he was 40 yards and 1.8 TD better per game at home.  Bottom line, Rowthlisberger’s fantasy numbers are way bett playing at home. 

yes, you need to pair him with one or 2 other QBs and rotate...send him to the bench on most road games.

This works a lot better in 10 team leagues than 12 teamers, where there is more QB availability.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

2nd Round is not his floor...he is being drafted at his ceiling.

We are going to have to agree to disagree.

guess u like Baldwin hill Hilton Diggs thielen over AJ (yikes)

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That’s like a 1/4 of the league.

Yep.. plenty of nomination fodder.

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