I think you have to put Warren in the serious contender column until more people declare - Harris isn't going to just be anointed and I obviously assume more will declare in the upcoming weeks. Booker is in but I'd need Sanders, O'Rourke or Klobucher to enter before I'd say Warren has no shot. I do wonder how much Booker and Harris will split the vote among people hoping for an AA President and same for Harris/Warren/Klobucher for the women vote. There's some interesting demographic dynamics with the nominees. That's the reason I still think Bernie could win it if he declares - there won't be the weight of the DNC behind someone like there was with Hillary and his ideas are still very popular and he's still seen as authentic. I wouldn't rule him out at all.
I like Warren. I may be one of the few people who does not care about her heritage - or how she has dealt with it. Its a non-factor for me.
But, I don't think she has "It". I just can't see her standing up and inspiring millions of people to rally to her side.
Bernie - my take on Bernie is relatively simple - I don't think he will have the same enthusiasm factor this cycle. I think he will be around for a while - but I think the Established Dems will back someone else by this time next year.
I agree about the demographic breakdown - and I think I noted somewhere about the early primaries giving us some interesting choices (but that Super Tuesday will come too soon to make any sense of it all).
Iowa - how will the mid-west white voters look at the race
New Hampshire - what will the white North-Easterners think of the race
South Carolina - first look at Southern African-Americans
Nevada - first look at Western Hispanics.
From a politics standpoint - I think winning in Iowa is more important than you might expect for a small white state. I think the Dems need to do better in the mid-west, so finding a candidate who resonates in Iowa is important.
The danger for the Dems may be a real demographic split where you get 3-4 "front-runners" splitting votes and making for some tough decisions by the party and candidates late in the race.
I also posted above that the changes to the Super Delegates may not be significant - because they are really only in play for the 1st vote at the convention. If nobody has a majority - the Super Delegates are able to vote starting in the 2nd round - and that will make things tougher for Bernie (and makes it still important to get those endorsements).