roadkill1292
Footballguy
Oof, that's almost four months for the Don to ridicule his opponent's appearance. Hopefully, the House will be roasting his keester during the runup and cut down on the clown show histrionics.
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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The GOP is considering a resolution that would cancel any challenge to Trump for the party nomination.
- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.
- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.
I think it will get interesting if Trump has a primary challenger - or "decides" not to run at all.
I don't think its a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the nominee.
"The Resolution Committee bill must pass through the full RNC to be adopted by the party. Presumably, the act would not stop any other Republicans from running, but the RNC would refuse to endorse the opponent."
I think they would still get the nomination - if they got the delegates. Next 15 months is an eternity in politics - but lets say there is a downturn in the economy, and the Trump administration, and Trump himself are embroiled in one investigation after another - I think there is a good chance we see someone other than Trump represent the party in 2020. (The flip side may be that the GOP opts to cut its losses, and blame the defeat on Trump, rather than risk a loss with another candidate.)
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It apparently passed the executive committee - still need to be voted on by the full GOP governing body - tomorrow.
Interesting.
I can see 4-5 contenders hitting that threshold - depending on their momentum, fundraising, and operations in CA
It obviously gives Harris a big leg up - given that she will have a natural base in the state.
I would think Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke can hit those numbers - then it will be up to Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, et all to find some support.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
No, not yet, the full committee still needs to vote on it. But it should be bigger news.
The Commish
Footballguy
So they are begging for someone to run for President as an "Independent" essentially? That's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Yeah I’m not sure I understand what would happen to state primaries but it does seem to create the possibility for a Bull Moose situation.So they are begging for someone to run for President as an "Independent" essentially? That's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Well, he's got 80+% of support from registered Republicans but one would have to think that shutting things down peremptorily like that would alienate those in the party who weren't outright Trumpies. Don can't afford to alienate many more demographics, his already thin margin for error continues to erode.
eoplearelyingtopollsters:
joffer
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
He and every poster on the site that complained about the DNC rigging the primary for Hillary.
I patiently await their outrage at the GOP.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
A legit three way race is the best opportunity for Trump re-election.So they are begging for someone to run for President as an "Independent" essentially? That's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them
the moops
Footballguy
I don't know about that. Let's say there is a Kasich/Moderate, Trump/Pence, Harris/Beto three way (or is it six way?). Trump pulls only the 30% hardcore MAGA crew I think in this scenario. Voting for Kasich gives many people some cover - especially the large portion that regrest voting for Trump in 2016. So Kasich/Moderate take the rest of the republican votes and maybe several percentage points from the Dems. Harris/Beto scoop up the rest and win easily
I suppose it depends on the candidate. But, i struggle to see how a 3rd party candidate helps Trump.
I figure his base is about 30% - he gets another 10-12% based on the (R)
A Conservative candidate eats away at that 10-12%, and maybe even a little of the 30%
A Dem should start with about 40%. So, even if the "independents" split on the 3rd party - the Dem candidate stands a decent chance of winning every state by plurality.
The Commish
Footballguy
I haven't paid attention to the polling, but isn't his "base" essentially 30% now? I guess I don't see the same math. This seems like another Perot outcome for the GOP
The Commish
Footballguy
Yes - I mean right now - with his support at roughly the 40% level - 30% base, 10% party.
In an election - I think that 10% is going to be less motivated to get out to vote for him.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Two responses to those that said a three way race doesn’t favor Trump:
The popular vote isn’t a good metric to use in this situation.
I only said it was Trump’s best chance, not that he’s a guaranteed winner. Explain to me how he wins in a two candidate race first.
The popular vote isn’t a good metric to use in this situation.
I only said it was Trump’s best chance, not that he’s a guaranteed winner. Explain to me how he wins in a two candidate race first.
The Commish
Footballguy
Damn it!
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I've been turning this question over for a while now re: the '20 election: what is the stupidest, most disruptive, most childish, most Donald thing ever that he could/would do? If we can imagine what that might be, it would give us a handle on things next year. With the nomination in the bag (see other postings about this) maybe he struts around until after the convention, getting all those feel good vibes from the magahats at the rallies, and then withdraws at the last possible minute (because he expects to lose to someone he couldn't bear to lose to plus Mueller will be up his butt big time).
Or maybe he gets trounced, spends two months whining about some mythical fraud at the polls and refuses to attend the inauguration or even leave the White House.
Or maybe he wins again because we're America and we have no shame left.
He'll probably do something worse than I can imagine. Because that would be Donald at his most Donald.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Dems run somebody bland, some pop singer stubs her toe and all the millennials are too traumatized to turn out to vote and Donald wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida by a combined 13 votes.
I don't think this will happen. But that big orange pile of goo has gotten lucky once before.
Dems don't get Texas in '20. Or even '24 or '28. But they might get one or more of Georgia, North Carolina and Florida in all of those years.
the moops
Footballguy
I'm not sure. If it is Beto/???? or ????/Beto vs Trump, I think that is a legit possibility
roadkill1292
Footballguy
We don't talk enough about where Donald is going to increase his vote totals in '20. His supporters on this forum will never address the subject in any detail, at least so far. He has to maintain every vote he got in '16 and then go get some more because of the changing demographics. Where will those votes come from?
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
He doesn’t need to get more votes he just needs to suppress more votes for his opponent.
I think most of his supporters are counting on his landslide victory in 2016 to be sufficient to win in 2020.
I say this somewhat seriously - I think they see Trump's support as stable. Polls have it all wrong - just like they did in 2016. And that Trump will carry the midwest again because he cares about working-class people, and Trump is making America great again.
timschochet
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
This worries me a lot. Especially in NC, Ga and Fl.
I hope they get overconfident. Donald's 80,000 vote combined margin in Wi, Mi and Pa and the 200,000 margin in Florida are seriously at risk just by demographic changes. What worries me is American voters' reluctance to "change horses in midstream," and I keep thinking about St. Ron Reagan's low approval rates early in his first term and how he ended up losing all but 49 states in '84.
The Commish
Footballguy
So, speaking to Florida, I'm not sure what's going to happen here, but I think the last thing you need to worry about is suppression. The other thing to remember is we have experienced a huge influx of people from PR who weren't here for the last election AND felons who have served their time and done everything they were supposed to are now allowed to vote. I don't know the calculus exactly (it's Florida afterall) but those are huge changes that would lead me to suggest ignoring previous results (for any of the races honestly) as a barometer for predicting the future.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I agree completely that Dems can win Florida in '20, especially if the new potential voters on the rolls turn out.
The state which appears to quietly be doing the best job at making it more difficult for at-risk voters to get to the polls is probably Ohio. Pubbies seem to have locked that state up and that's a big loss for the blues; Ohio used to be not only a purple state but maybe also the biggest bellweather of every election.
sho nuff
Footballguy
And we can all look at logic of things right now and say they are wrong. And I believe they are. I also didn't believe he would ever win.
I see good signs in some comments here and there that that narrative is over...but reading still on social media (some family and friends) and comments to things...there are still plenty of people who will defend him no matter what. Even in the worst of things...he is just trying to do what is best. He just tells it like it is. And so on. There are still plenty of people who are all in...that he was right about when he said he could shoot someone and not lose a supporter. Those people still being plentiful is what still has me concerned.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
The '20 election worries the crap out of me.
joffer
Footballguy
Some state Polling:
Kyle GriffinVerified account @kylegriffin1 33m33 minutes ago
Registered Wisconsin voters
27% say they would definitely vote to reelect Trump in 2020
12% say they probably would
8% probably vote for someone else
49% definitely vote for someone else.
—Marquette U. Law poll
Kyle GriffinVerified account @kylegriffin1 33m33 minutes ago
Registered Wisconsin voters
27% say they would definitely vote to reelect Trump in 2020
12% say they probably would
8% probably vote for someone else
49% definitely vote for someone else.
—Marquette U. Law poll
Norman Paperman
Footballguy
Bernie is in it to win it.
But, I don't think he will. His message will not have changed since the 2016 election, and I think he will struggle to reach the heights he reached in a 2-horse race.
But, I don't think he will. His message will not have changed since the 2016 election, and I think he will struggle to reach the heights he reached in a 2-horse race.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
At best, Trump can run on a continued recovery. Lots of signs that he's running that recovery into the ground. And even if he weren't the standard business cycle suggests that he's going to be running during a slow-down. Just don't see anyway Trump can run on "Are you better off now than four years ago?"
Norman Paperman
Footballguy
Well, there is one other issue - the Supreme Court.
A good campaign manager will hammer this issue to Republicans far and wide. The importance of replacing RBG and Thomas with good, young, conservative Justices.
Of course, since the GOP control the Senate - any vacancies up to about January 20th, 2021 will probably be filled. So, it might be that Thomas retires, and RBG does not make it that long.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
2020 won't be the last close election but it will be the last one where the Pubbies can keep it close with someone from the crazy wing of the party. Demographical changes are already making this election tougher for The Don but in '24 there will be six or seven million fewer old white people around and 15 million more young voters, many of whom are secular, minority, strapped with college debt and unable to land traditional jobs with traditional benefits (because of the evolving nature of employment). The Republicans' free market agenda with even less regulation won't cut it with those new voters, who are only a couple more elections away from being the dominant generation in the electorate.
Well the GOP passed their little resolution:
Republican National Committee (RNC) members voted on Friday to throw the party’s “undivided support” behind President Trump ahead of his 2020 reelection bid as speculation continues to mount about potential primary challengers.
The resolution unanimously approved by the RNC at its winter meeting in New Mexico offered “undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his effective Presidency.”
While the resolution is largely symbolic, it is also unusual, because the RNC has historically refrained from expressing support for a candidate before he officially becomes the party’s nominee.
The vote on Friday signals how the Republican Party has come to fully embrace Trump, three years after many Republican officials and members dismissed him as a thorn in the GOP’s side.
Republican National Committee (RNC) members voted on Friday to throw the party’s “undivided support” behind President Trump ahead of his 2020 reelection bid as speculation continues to mount about potential primary challengers.
The resolution unanimously approved by the RNC at its winter meeting in New Mexico offered “undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his effective Presidency.”
While the resolution is largely symbolic, it is also unusual, because the RNC has historically refrained from expressing support for a candidate before he officially becomes the party’s nominee.
The vote on Friday signals how the Republican Party has come to fully embrace Trump, three years after many Republican officials and members dismissed him as a thorn in the GOP’s side.
Someone with a strong 30% base but with little support elsewhere is way more likely to win a three-way race than a two-way race.
The Commish
Footballguy
I guess I don't understand math. That's about where he'd be....30%. Or is there anticipation that the people who don't like him will vote for him and increase that number....it really does seem like both his floor and ceiling.
The Commish
Footballguy
Dedfin
Footballguy
30% is within the margin of error to get to 34%, but not to get to 51%.
(Also, I think his approval ratings are still around 37% rather than 30%.)
If he wins each state 34-33-33, he could win the election by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide. If he loses each state 34-66, he’ll lose by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide.
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