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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (11 Viewers)

All the Dems care about is hating Trump and trying to find something on him.   They won't stop until 2024.    They will wake up one morning and the 2020 election will be over and they will be asking, "what the hell happened?".  That's right, keep going after Trump and pushing the Green New Deal and other ridiculous ideas.  The Dems are heading for disaster if they don't change course.

 
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All the Dems care about is hating Trump and trying to find something on him.   They won't stop until 2024.    They will wake up one morning and the 2020 election will be over and they will be asking, "what the hell happened?".  That's right, keep going after Trump and pushing the Green New Deal.  The Dems are heading for disaster if they don't change course.
As a Dem, I disagree.  I won't vote for a candidate (in the primary) that is all about hating Trump.  I want someone who supports my progressive agenda.

 
All the Dems care about is hating Trump and trying to find something on him.   They won't stop until 2024.    They will wake up one morning and the 2020 election will be over and they will be asking, "what the hell happened?".  That's right, keep going after Trump and pushing the Green New Deal and other ridiculous ideas.  The Dems are heading for disaster if they don't change course.
As far as presidential race goes they have to narrow out the field and then we’ll see how the nom shapes up.

Trump will undoubtably continue to be a schmuck and do, say schmuck like things so it’s like being dealt a pocket pair (see last election for results).

 
All the Dems care about is hating Trump and trying to find something on him.   They won't stop until 2024.    They will wake up one morning and the 2020 election will be over and they will be asking, "what the hell happened?".  That's right, keep going after Trump and pushing the Green New Deal and other ridiculous ideas.  The Dems are heading for disaster if they don't change course.
Yeah who wants to push a policy like the Green New Deal that roughly 80% of voters support in a national election right? I mean run on popular policies? How ridiculous.

 
Lots of people rode his coattails during the general elections.

And laying the blame at his feet for that is partially valid, but the opposition was incredible.
Really? They rode his coattails to losing over 800 statehouse seats and a bunch of governors? Losing the Congress? Just generally losing?

 
Hey, maybe now that Trump is completely exonerated by the Mueller report, we can debate issues and character. I think Dems will be happy to champion a better health care system against whatever Donald is prepared to bring to the table. Environmental pillage? His abilities as a unifier? His defense of white collar crime? His shrewd cabinet selections? Or will it be his dismissal of the emoluments clause altogether?

 
timschochet said:
I’ve been listening to stuff about the electoral college situation and the news isn’t that great for Democrats. Even if Trump loses Michigan, loses Wisconsin, loses Iowa this time around, so long as he holds Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania he’s at 273. 

The governor and senate elections in Florida of 2018 suggest to me that Trump WILL win there. I would expect North Carolina as well. Which means this election all comes down to Pennsylvania. 

Which means Joe Biden may be the only candidate with a real shot at beating Donald Trump. 
Why would you use the incredibly tight 2018 elections given the significant changes in electorate by 2020?  I don't know who's going to win here, but this seems like pretty flawed logic given the migrations from PR and the new found ability to vote for a couple million people (even though the state GOP is trying really hard to stop that from happening)

 
Yeah, maybe Tim needs to explain what special insight he has into Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, three states (checks map) on the opposite coast from where he lives. Republicans were roundly thumped in 2018 in Pennsylvania suburbs, parts of the state that were lukewarm for Hilary, North Carolina elected a Dem governor, a statewide office last time I looked, and Florida has over a million newly eligible voters, largely hostile to the conservative establishment, who weren't available for the most recent gubernatorial election that Dems lost by 10,000 votes.

Donald may rate a fitty-fitty chance like Nate Silver's gang says he does -- and I agree with that -- but his re-election is teetering on the knife's edge.

 
Interesting visual: Where do the Dem Nominees come from

This got me thinking about "electable" Dem nominees - its been 59 years since a Dem from the Northeast has been elected President.  And, unless you include Obama as from Hawaii, there has never been a west coast Democrat to win.

Obama - Illinois

Clinton - Arkansas

Carter - Georgia

Johnson - Texas

Kennedy - Massachusetts - 1960

Truman - Missouri

Roosevelt - New York 

It also seems that the Dems have fared better when they pick a candidate from a non-Democratic state.  Clinton lost, Kerry lost, Dukakis lost, Mondale lost.  

Not sure if it means much (or if it means everything) but food for thought.

 
Just as an aside - there is a FEC deadline this Sunday for 1st Quarter donation reporting - so if you were inclined to make a financial contribution to your favorite candidate - doing so by Sunday would help their numbers.

 
White man’s culture?  :lmao:   The things they are going to make old Joe say to win this nomination. 

NEW YORK (AP) — Former Vice President Joe Biden condemned “a white man’s culture” Tuesday night as he lashed out against violence against women and, more specifically, lamented his role in the Supreme Court confirmation hearings that undermined Anita Hill’s credibility nearly three decades ago.

Biden, a Democratic presidential prospect who often highlights his white working-class roots, said Hill, who is African-American, should not have been forced to face a panel of “a bunch of white guys.”
https://www.apnews.com/73e70d011191490d839683b1fc89363f

 
roadkill1292 said:
Yeah, maybe Tim needs to explain what special insight he has into Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, three states (checks map) on the opposite coast from where he lives. Republicans were roundly thumped in 2018 in Pennsylvania suburbs, parts of the state that were lukewarm for Hilary, North Carolina elected a Dem governor, a statewide office last time I looked, and Florida has over a million newly eligible voters, largely hostile to the conservative establishment, who weren't available for the most recent gubernatorial election that Dems lost by 10,000 votes.

Donald may rate a fitty-fitty chance like Nate Silver's gang says he does -- and I agree with that -- but his re-election is teetering on the knife's edge.
My “special insight” is what I read.

Still, some of your points are really interesting, especially about Florida. You list some things I did not consider. About Pennsylvania I would only note that the Democrats who won there were generally centrist. North Carolina I am ignorant about and will defer to your knowledge. But- even if we move Florida from the red column to the undecided column, it remains a fact that if Trump wins Pennsylvania he is likely re-elected, and I still believe that a centrist opponent has a much better chance of winning Pennsylvania away from Trump. 

That being said, the healthcare thing by Trump is so stupid that any Democrat, no matter how progressive, may be able to win. 

 
Terry McAuliffe leaning toward jumping into 2020 race

McAuliffe has been telling Democratic allies that he is leaning toward jumping into the Democratic presidential race next month, according to three people who have spoken to him. The former governor has long said he would make a decision by the end of March, with a potential announcement later in April.

McAuliffe's possible entry into the 2020 race would make him the third current or former governor -- joining former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee -- and the only Virginian in the crowded field of more than a dozen Democrats.

"I get the sense that he is moving closer," said John Morgan, a longtime donor to Democratic causes and McAuliffe friend. "I think he is very close to it."

(Side note - John Morgan is one of the Dems top donors - trial lawyer from Florida, and other states (Morgan & Morgan)).

This strikes me as an odd move.  Not that McAuliffe does not have the credentials to run for President - but I wonder where he fits in the mix in terms of building a base.  He would presumably be fighting with Biden for establishment Dems' support.

 
New Quinnipiac poll of Democratic and Dem-leaning voters nationally:

Joe Biden 29
Bernie Sanders 19
Beto O'Rourke 12
Kamala Harris 8
Warren 4
Buttigieg 4

...rest are lower

 
For the record, my 12-yo daughter has narrowed her top-3 to:

Beto O'Rourke

Pete Buttigieg

Amy Klobuchar

She is really excited about the upcoming cycle. She told me when she was 10 she was too young to really pay attention, but now she is ready to really follow the process.

 
New Quinnipiac poll of Democratic and Dem-leaning voters nationally:

Joe Biden 29
Bernie Sanders 19
Beto O'Rourke 12
Kamala Harris 8
Warren 4
Buttigieg 4

...rest are lower
I'd like to see if this was another land line poll. The last one that had Bernie that low way under sampled for voters under 30

 
I'd like to see if this was another land line poll. The last one that had Bernie that low way under sampled for voters under 30
I think Quinnipiac is one of the better polling outfits  (they get an A- on 538)

"The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues." 

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2611

 
I think Quinnipiac is one of the better polling outfits  (they get an A- on 538)

"The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues." 

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2611
Thanks for the link. I like Quinnipac and they are pretty good. Just the only other poll I've seen him that far back they literally sampled 0 voters under 35.

Lots to dig into. Interesting little tics. For instance a large majority wants a bipartisan president but ar the same time about the same size majority wants the candidate  to stand up to Republicans. Not easy to do both. 

 
Looks like Beto had a good turnout in El Paso.

I am supporting Mayor Pete, but I still think the real front runners here are Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris.

 
Looks like Beto had a good turnout in El Paso.

I am supporting Mayor Pete, but I still think the real front runners here are Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris.
I agree. Beto draws the crowds gets people energized he also doesn't have a job right now so he can tour all around Iowa and try and capture them like he has Texas.

Biden's in there as well but I think he's at his high point right now.

 
Nate Silver with another prescient observation:

Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538

If I were, like, Booker or Castro or Inslee, I'd be worried that no one is bothering to write takedowns of me.

I think Castro and Inslee were non-entities from the start, but Booker looks like nobody cases that he is running, and nobody is even bothering to drop some Oppo research on a reporter's lap.

 
Nate Silver with another prescient observation:

Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538

If I were, like, Booker or Castro or Inslee, I'd be worried that no one is bothering to write takedowns of me.

I think Castro and Inslee were non-entities from the start, but Booker looks like nobody cases that he is running, and nobody is even bothering to drop some Oppo research on a reporter's lap.
I kinda feel like Booker was done with his performance during Kavanaugh :shrug:  

 
What it comes down to is, and you’re not going to like it: I know you want a progressive candidate and given the base, you might very well get that. But this is not the year for it. If we go in that direction, I think we’re gonna lose. 
Tim's always good for it 

 
I think Castro and Inslee were non-entities from the start
You can only be former HUD secretary for so long til you are irrelevant, even at 44. 

Eventually the non-entities will pick a horse in return for a plank in their platform (Inslee for instance) and likely a position down the road. In return they'll provide an in-road to a segment of the electorate, donor lists, and field organization. Who they align with may swing the race. 

It's all pretty normal except the raw number of non-entities in this race. 

 
Biden and Booker are gropey, Warren lied about her heritage, Bernie shirtless drinking white Russians with the Russians in Russia, Harris had affair to get promoted, Beto dreams of running people over in a car. Is Buttigieg clean?

Who will be the last standing to go up against a ##### grabbing, lying sitting POTUS?

God Bless the USA. ;)

 
Biden and Booker are gropey, Warren lied about her heritage, Bernie shirtless drinking white Russians with the Russians in Russia, Harris had affair to get promoted, Beto dreams of running people over in a car. Is Buttigieg clean?

Who will be the last standing to go up against a ##### grabbing, lying sitting POTUS?

God Bless the USA. ;)
Can’t wait to watch the level of scrutiny that is the new norm after the last election, it will be great entertainment.  :popcorn:

 
Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1 45m45 minutes ago

More

Inbox: Kamala Harris Raises $12 Million from 218,000 Individual Contributions in Q1. 98% of Contributions Were Less Than $100.

Buttigieg reported $7M, 158,550 donors, and 64% under $200

Interesting that Harris seems to be doing better with Grassroots (small donors)...

 
I should also add (already posted this in the Buttigieg thread) but based on emails this weekend, Bernie Sanders is likely to report close to or over 1M individual contributions.  One of the emails claimed 890,000 and climbing.

From a fund-raising scorecard, I expect Bernie and Beto to be clear front-runners - which should not be surprising given their 1-day totals announced after launch.

Warren's numbers should be interesting - given she has just parted ways with her finance director.

Biden, if he gets in the race, will be able to raise money at the same, or better, pace as Bernie and Beto.

For others, I think Buttigieg sets the floor for the top-tier candidates.

 
I was, and it was true. Of the candidates who ran for President on the Democratic side, Hillary was the only one who could have beaten Trump. 
I’m behind in this thread, but fivethirtyeight recently opined that Bernie probably would have beaten Trump in 2016.

In any case, “candidates who ran” is too narrow. Part of the problem was that a number of capable people didn’t run because it was Hillary’s turn.

 
I was, and it was true. Of the candidates who ran for President on the Democratic side, Hillary was the only one who could have beaten Trump. 
Would you please stop with this. It isn't true. It isn't close to true. Unfortunately for your opinion we have exit polling.

 
I was, and it was true. Of the candidates who ran for President on the Democratic side, Hillary was the only one who could have beaten Trump. 
Would you please stop with this. It isn't true. It isn't close to true. Unfortunately for your opinion we have exit polling.
It's quite amazing the hoops people will jump through to avoid reality.  Tim, I can't honestly believe you continue to believe this with all the evidence pilled up in front of you.  Your resistance to reality here runs a very similar path to those who reject climate science....seriously.

 
Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1 45m45 minutes ago

More

Inbox: Kamala Harris Raises $12 Million from 218,000 Individual Contributions in Q1. 98% of Contributions Were Less Than $100.

Interesting that Harris seems to be doing better with Grassroots (small donors)...
she knows what she's doing. she had a broad base of support , iirc, in her CA senate campaign. she's a strong "retail" candidate.

 
It's quite amazing the hoops people will jump through to avoid reality.  Tim, I can't honestly believe you continue to believe this with all the evidence pilled up in front of you.  Your resistance to reality here runs a very similar path to those who reject climate science....seriously.
I’m the equivalent of a climate change denier now? Lol that’s kind of insulting. 

There’s just a teeny bit less science involved in this discussion, which is 100% speculation. Simply put, I believed then and believe now that Bernie Sanders was too far left for the general public in 2016 to support, and that he would not have won any of the swing states that Hillary lost, and in fact he would have received less of the popular vote than she did. That’s my firm opinion and I stand by it. 

Incidentally however I don’t think it’s true of 2020. Not saying Bernie will be the guy (I doubt it) but if it’s him or another progressive candidate, that candidate has a real chance of being elected (perhaps for the first time ever in our history.) 

 
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I’m the equivalent of a climate change denier now? Lol that’s kind of insulting. 

There’s just a teeny bit less science involved in this discussion, which is 100% speculation. Simply put, I believed then and believe now that Bernie Sanders was too far left for the general public in 2016 to support, and that he would not have won any of the swing states that Hillary lost, and in fact he would have received less of the popular vote than she did. That’s my firm opinion and I stand by it. 

Incidentally however I don’t think it’s true of 2020. Not saying Bernie will be the guy (I doubt it) but if it’s him or another progressive candidate, that candidate has a real chance of being elected (perhaps for the first time ever in our history.) 
Sorry you're insulted but when you continue to hold opinions that are debunked by the evidence in front of you, you are very much behaving like a climate change denier :shrug:

Perfect example....freakin' Michigan chose Bernie over Hillary in the primary!  I'd point you to all the exit polls but if you can't even acknowledge the situation in Michigan, then pointing you there is a wasted effort.

 
Sorry you're insulted but when you continue to hold opinions that are debunked by the evidence in front of you, you are very much behaving like a climate change denier :shrug:

Perfect example....freakin' Michigan chose Bernie over Hillary in the primary!  I'd point you to all the exit polls but if you can't even acknowledge the situation in Michigan, then pointing you there is a wasted effort.
Bernie crushed Hillary in Wisconsin too.

 
Sorry you're insulted but when you continue to hold opinions that are debunked by the evidence in front of you, you are very much behaving like a climate change denier :shrug:

Perfect example....freakin' Michigan chose Bernie over Hillary in the primary!  I'd point you to all the exit polls but if you can't even acknowledge the situation in Michigan, then pointing you there is a wasted effort.
It doesn’t mean that he performs better than Hillary did in the general though. Very different circumstances. 

Still you raise a good point and perhaps I’ll reconsider. I don’t want to belabor the issue because I don’t believe it’s important anymore (actually I didn’t then either- I supported Hillary not because of her electability but because I agreed more with her views.) 

 
It doesn’t mean that he performs better than Hillary did in the general though. Very different circumstances. 

Still you raise a good point and perhaps I’ll reconsider. I don’t want to belabor the issue because I don’t believe it’s important anymore (actually I didn’t then either- I supported Hillary not because of her electability but because I agreed more with her views.) 
Are you aware that Trump's message and Bernie's message in Wisconsin and Michigan were virtually identical with the exception of Trump's promise of bringing all the manufacturing jobs back to those states?  This isn't about your motivations for voting.  It was about your assertion that Bernie wouldn't have done better than Hillary in those states in the general election.  I find that a curious position given the reality that they preferred him more than her in the primaries.  I guess you could come up with a scenario where they liked him in the primary and turned on him in the general, but I don't see an honest argument there, merely a political one.

 
So Bernie's fundraising numbers are in:

WASHINGTON — Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont raised $18.2 million over the first six weeks of his presidential bid, his campaign announced Tuesday, a display of financial strength that cements his status as one of the top fund-raisers in the sprawling Democratic field.

Mr. Sanders received almost 900,000 contributions from 525,000 individual donors, his campaign manager, Faiz Shakir, said in a conference call with reporters. The average donation was $20, compared with $27 in Mr. Sanders’s 2016 presidential campaign.

In comparison, I think both Harris and Buttigieg should still feel good about their totals.

 
Bernie Sanders - $18.2M - 525,000 donors

Kamala Harris - $12M - 218,000

Pete Buttigieg - $7M  - 158,000

Still to report:

Beto - $6.1M in 24 hours - but shorter time frame - will be hard to judge

Warren - ?  Financial directer left the campaign

Booker - seems to be keeping a low profile

Klobuchar - will be interesting to see how she compares to Buttigieg

Hard to imagine anyone else below this point surprising too much - we have 14 candidates who have qualified for the June/July debates, and that will be the next real chance for anyone to make a move from pretender to contender.

Biden, of course, has nothing to report, but he is currently dealing with rough weather of his own.  I still question whether he has the stomach and energy to really pull off a campaign.  And, if he drops out, I think it really opens up the Dem nomination.

 
The Commish said:
Are you aware that Trump's message and Bernie's message in Wisconsin and Michigan were virtually identical with the exception of Trump's promise of bringing all the manufacturing jobs back to those states?  This isn't about your motivations for voting.  It was about your assertion that Bernie wouldn't have done better than Hillary in those states in the general election.  I find that a curious position given the reality that they preferred him more than her in the primaries.  I guess you could come up with a scenario where they liked him in the primary and turned on him in the general, but I don't see an honest argument there, merely a political one.
This is a false analysis. According to consistent polling taken after the election, the Trump voters in Wisconsin and Michigan did not select him for his talk about manufacturing jobs, or his anti-trade message. They chose him because of his anti-immigration talk, because of their fear of “the browning of America”. None of that was part of Bernie’s message, so to claim they were identical is incorrect. It’s the reason why Trump won those states and why he would have beaten Bernie. 

 

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