ffmail4me
Footballguy
In my dynasty leagues Henderson usually went LATE 1st, and sometimes early 2nd...so with a healthy Wentz I didn't think Jeffrey was a turd offered for a late 1st or early 2nd
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How do you know?
If they only plan on dressing 3 RBs each week, of course they would prefer the guy that contributes on special teams.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I think it's common sense why they preferred him over Anderson, but I'm not saying STs didn't have anything to do with it.
Bottom line is we don't know their exact reasons. We can only deduce.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It just feels convenient that the biggest Henderson doubter is also the biggest Brown supporter. In the same way that it seems convenient for the biggest Henderson supporters to also be the most bearish on Gurley’s health. Just feels like folks on both fringes are seeing what they want to see to justify their initial stance on Henderson.
Last edited by a moderator:
Football Jones
Footballguy
I kinda get the feeling you're accusing me of something, LOL.
To put your mind at ease, I've rostered Brown since early last season in my dynasty league.
I'm getting a negative vibe from you so if you don't believe me, I'm sure @bostonfred (along with some others) would confirm if you need him to.
Last edited by a moderator:
Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, I like Brown, but he's not somebody I'd pay much for.
He's underrated, but it's not like I'm super-high on him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I just realized that I’m not talking about football, so I should probably shut up.
The last thing I’ll say is that you and the guys you’ve called out are coming off the same way, just different sides of the argument.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I haven't called anyone out. I'm the one getting called out.
Anyway, let's get back to football...
His price immediately after the NFL draft is not indicative of his current price (1.06, RB4 in the current Mizelle).In my dynasty leagues Henderson usually went LATE 1st, and sometimes early 2nd...so with a healthy Wentz I didn't think Jeffrey was a turd offered for a late 1st or early 2nd
I'm not sold that Wentz can stay healthy, and I'm absolutely certain that Jeffrey can't. He's cutable after this season, as well. Not the kind of guy I'm looking to acquire in dynasty.
Thanks Guys for getting this back to football.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
Key sentence there is "we can only deduce".
Why do you believe they wanted Brown instead of Anderson?
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They thought he'd be cheaper (which I'm not sure turned out to be the case), he's younger and they believe his contributions on special teams are important to the team's success. Anderson was clearly the better runner last season and has been solid his whole career.
If Gurley misses time I do expect Brown would contribute but I do think Henderson would see the bigger workload in the committee.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I highly doubt that the Rams can reliably reproduce the holes they provided CJ late last season and into the playoffs, but if they can do even 80% of that - good lord - Henderson is going to eat. Even if Brown is better at getting the dirty yards - I’m not saying he is, but do question Henderson there - I don’t see any reason they wouldn’t want the ball in Henderson’s hands as much as possible. The only way I see Brown getting more carries is if Henderson struggles picking up the playbook or is a Ronald Jones level bust.
tl;dr - I agree.
Last edited by a moderator:
I’ve read also that Brown is pretty good in pass pro. If Henderson can’t be passable there it’s another reason Brown could get some run. I have some concerns about Henderson potentially fumbling as well. I think he had an average rate in college and that’s with him probably not getting squared up as much as a lot of college backs. He has small hands and seems to only carry the ball in one arm 99% of the time. If he can’t pass block and/or fumbles it’ll be much harder to get him on the field as the primary guy if Gurley goes down. All that being said I’m as big a Henderson guy as they come and think he’ll be dynamic enough to get productive run as a complement to Gurley and would be the heavier half of a committee with Brown if Gurley went down.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
4 fumbles on 431 attempts... I want to see what you consider good.Cobbler1 said:
Jacobs 3 in 251
Sanders 10 in 276
People are crowning these 2
Todd Gurley 11 in 1042. He has the exact same rate as Henderson. They seem to have no problem giving Gurley the ball with that fumble rate.
Last edited by a moderator:
Calm down fella. I said he had an average college fumble rate which about 100 touches per fumble is. And then I listed reasons why I was concerned his fumble rate would be worse in the pros as he takes more contact from better players than he did at Memphis. Todd Gurley having an average fumble rate in the pros doesn’t say anything about Henderson’s rate in college.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I get what you're saying, I just think it's odd to say his fumble rate might go up and that's a concern. In that case we could say the same things about any rookie... his catch rate might go down. his tackle breaking percentage might go down. etc etc. It could happen but to be concerned about it seems like a waste of energy and just looking for problems for a controversial player
I agree on pass pro, and we've seen talented backs get less playing time due to not being as good in pass pro as a lesser talented back.
Last edited by a moderator:
I think that we all agree that it’s easier to do things like break tackles, secure the football, gain yards in college vs the pros. And I absolutely agree that applying an expectation of worse outcomes across all college players going to the pros is nonsensical because as you say they’re all going to experience that jump so you’d be lowering the expectations for everyone.
In this case though Henderson is not only making a jump from college but he’s making a jump from lesser competition in college so I doubt I’m alone in scrutinizing certain aspects of his game more. And he’s also going from a spread system behind a good OL where I doubt he got hit as much in traffic as others did. As an example, had he put up 8.9 ypc across 390 or however many carries it was in the SEC or Big10 then he definitely wouldn’t have lasted until the 3rd round and we certainly wouldn’t be talking about hoping to get him in the early second or late firsts of rookie drafts.
Now I believe 8.9 is damn good even against lower competition so it still stands out to me. Seeing a teammate of his taken in the 4th round have almost 2 full yards lower backs it up to me that 8.9 is really good even against lesser competition. And I’ve mentioned before I love his burst (elite!) and think he will be a big plus as a receiver all things that translate to the pros and had me rank him #5 overall in this class.
I read that his hand size was 8th percentile and immediately thought that I’d like to see his fumble rate. And as I said it was average (maybe even towards the lower side of average). The articles I read said average was 100-124 and Henderson was at 108. It’s not poor and it’s not a glaring red flag and it didn’t affect my ranking. But it is on the back of my mind that a guy with small hands who fumbled at an average rate in a spread system against lesser competition and who carries the ball almost exclusively in one hand could put the ball on the ground in the pros. That’s all.
Raptors409
Footballguy
Do you own Henderson anywhere?Football Jones said:
Football Jones
Footballguy
I don't. I think people believe I hate Henderson's talent, but that's not the case.
It's simply a matter of his ADP. I doubt I'll acquire Henderson anywhere because I'm much lower on him than the general FF community.
If I do end up rostering him somehow, I'd look to take advantage of the hype & sell at a peak (maybe during preseason).
Raptors409
Footballguy
It's funny because predraft, I had him Top 5. Post draft, guy was nuclear. Nobody wanted him. Grabbed him at 2.5.
A few blurbs and suddenly he's a Top 5 pick again? We knew Gurley had a bum knee. We assumed they would bring in a back to compete.
It's almost like the late majority (laggards) slept on this guy and then when their favorite websites (Rotoworld, ESPN, etc) told them they're supposed to like him and he shot back up.
I'd be willing to sell Henderson if the price was right. RBs come and go so quickly. If I could lock in a future 1st or a decent WR, why not? Until Gurley retires, gets injured, or gets traded. Henderson won't be winning me any titles.
With that said, I'm not actively shopping him. But I would certainly let someone overpay.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Outstanding post. If I owned Henderson & could get a random (middle of the pack) 2020 1st, I'd probably do it. That's a winning hand (long-term), IMO.
That said, I'd be tempted to hold out for a 1st+. His value could climb that high soon enough if it's not there already.
Last edited by a moderator:
Football Jones
Footballguy
Also, I don't think I've ever seen the fever this high for a 3rd round RB in a poor class. Not to mention one who doesn't have typical feature back traits. It really surprised me.
I kinda get it due to the questions surrounding Gurley, but I believe people are so infatuated with the potential upside of the situation that they've overlooked Henderson's weaknesses.
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Have you looked at this class?? Its all jumbled into one giant pile of question marks.
Not like people are trading established studs for the guy
Last edited by a moderator:
Football Jones
Footballguy
Agreed, but I'm talking about the level of excitement for a 3rd-rounder in a poor RB class.
Very unusual.
Football Jones
Footballguy
edit
Last edited by a moderator:
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
True a weaker overall RB class but it was a strong defensive class which pushed a lot of skill positions down. On top of the fact that teams seem to realize they don’t need to draft an RB in the first round anymore I don’t have a problem with a top of the third round RB pick (especially when a team trades up for him).
Raptors409
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
People in the Butler thread will say calling Butler a 4th round pick is poor because he was the first pick of round for, so hes "practically a 3rd rounder" in spite of the fact that I believe 7 comp picks went at the end of round 3. Henderson was pick 6 of round 3, so using their logic we could say Henderson is "practically a 2nd rounder." does that make his hype feel better?
I do agree that someone picked early in a round is far different from someone picked late. I think it's a slippery slope to start labeling early 4th rounders as 3rds and so on, but I do see the point.
In this case Henderson was pick 6. That's pretty high. Only 12 picks after Miles Sanders.
Not a ringing endorsement, but Royce Freeman was picked 7th in round 3 last year and people had no reservations taking him, in some cases, over 2nd round rookie RBs. Jury is still out on him, but I'm just demonstrating that it's not very unusual for a 3rd rounder to have hype. Kareem Hunt had a lot of hype 2 years ago as well. Just because you dont agree with the excitement/hype doesnt make it unusual.
I do agree that someone picked early in a round is far different from someone picked late. I think it's a slippery slope to start labeling early 4th rounders as 3rds and so on, but I do see the point.
In this case Henderson was pick 6. That's pretty high. Only 12 picks after Miles Sanders.
Not a ringing endorsement, but Royce Freeman was picked 7th in round 3 last year and people had no reservations taking him, in some cases, over 2nd round rookie RBs. Jury is still out on him, but I'm just demonstrating that it's not very unusual for a 3rd rounder to have hype. Kareem Hunt had a lot of hype 2 years ago as well. Just because you dont agree with the excitement/hype doesnt make it unusual.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Part of the reason I ignored the “bad situation” talk early is because the trade up was such an egregious overpay. It’s a tell that the Rams may have big plans for him.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
New voice in here so hopefully this won’t get lost in the back and forth bickering even though it sounds like Jones’ repetitive point.
Henderson is indeed an electric player, but there seems to be a longstanding institutional pushback in the NFL toward smaller backs, such that they rarely get the workload that we fans think they are earning in head-to-head competitions. Warrick Dunn, Tiki Barber, Dion Lewis types all seem to give way to bigger but less talented backs for reasons which appear rooted primarily in coaches’ bias.
Seems to me that (if Gurley goes down for a lengthy period) expecting Brown to get more carries and goalline looks than his smaller but faster and more productive partner is a real concern, and it lowers my expectations for Henderson’s volume as a potential feature back.
To be fair I have been a believer in Brown since he was drafted, so I could be overstating his value. But observations of history say that won’t matter since coaches will take carries away from a smaller back and give them to him even if his skill tops out at “TJ Duckett 2.0.”
So is the consensus of the Henderson backers that:
1) He’s just so good that it won’t matter? Or,
2) McVay is a new breed of coach who won’t fall prey to the institutional biases of the past generation?
Because otherwise I could easily see Henderson capped at a Tarik Cohen level of output and always being paired with a bulkier counterpart who siphons touches and touchdowns.
Henderson is indeed an electric player, but there seems to be a longstanding institutional pushback in the NFL toward smaller backs, such that they rarely get the workload that we fans think they are earning in head-to-head competitions. Warrick Dunn, Tiki Barber, Dion Lewis types all seem to give way to bigger but less talented backs for reasons which appear rooted primarily in coaches’ bias.
Seems to me that (if Gurley goes down for a lengthy period) expecting Brown to get more carries and goalline looks than his smaller but faster and more productive partner is a real concern, and it lowers my expectations for Henderson’s volume as a potential feature back.
To be fair I have been a believer in Brown since he was drafted, so I could be overstating his value. But observations of history say that won’t matter since coaches will take carries away from a smaller back and give them to him even if his skill tops out at “TJ Duckett 2.0.”
So is the consensus of the Henderson backers that:
1) He’s just so good that it won’t matter? Or,
2) McVay is a new breed of coach who won’t fall prey to the institutional biases of the past generation?
Because otherwise I could easily see Henderson capped at a Tarik Cohen level of output and always being paired with a bulkier counterpart who siphons touches and touchdowns.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yes, but that “makes him worth a mid-first” IF Gurley is out for a long time. We don’t know that with any certainty, and there is a good chance he isn’t. Make Henderson a timeshare back with Gurley, or more likely a secondary weapon/changeup back paired with Gurley and he’s more “early 2nd” material I would think.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Interesting. You would give up a mid first in this draft for Tarik Cohen? I hold the 13th overall pick and would not trade it for Cohen personally (non PPR league), but to each his own. I understand that this is not considered a strong draft, but mid first seems like the sweet spot. There is some nice TE and WR talent available around that spot, all of which I would personally prefer over Tarik Cohen or someone who will be used similarly.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Would I give a mid 1st in a weak draft for a top 11 RB last year with excellent receiving skills who is 23? I would sure think about it.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Ding ding ding ding!
Absolutely. I am not arguing the guy will break the rushing record, I just think he has a real shot to make a FF impact. Not sure why there is so much resistance on that.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Happily took him at 1.08. Not sure why someone wouldn’t want the upside there. Weird thread.
A little bit of all of that for me. These really good pass catching backs have a lot of utility nowadays in ppr leagues. And it seems like that can happen even as a complementary piece. James White and Tarek Cohen are two examples from last year. And Henderson is much bigger than Cohen and much more explosive than White. Kamara is another guy who was likely drafted because of his pass catching abilities and then it turned out he was really really good so it led to more for him. I trust that if McVay determines he can use Henderson to create mismatches he will do it. Whether it’s getting him isolated in coverage against a LB or force the defense to pull a LB off the field for an extra defensive back allowing Henderson to run against a light front, McVay will exploit it.
So next to Gurley as a complementary piece I think he can still be heavily utilized as a change of pace guy exploiting mismatches in the defense and in the passing game. And if Gurley goes down I do think as long as he’s ok in pass pro and doesn’t have ball security issues that he can be on the heavy side of a timeshare with Brown with huge upside.
Catbird
Footballguy
Brown had a clavicle injury with 3-4 weeks to go and went on IR. They then signed Anderson who played in the last 2 regular season games. Brown was running at 4.9 yards per carry and is a great blocker. They re-signed him at more than CJ would have cost them when they had the choice. I don't see any reason to think they preferred CJ to Malcolm. Just the opposite. I think Brown will have a very significant role in a post-Gurley Rams backfield - should there be one.
TripItUp
Footballguy
By what measure is he a "smaller back"
your entire premise gets started off on the wrong foot
Last edited by a moderator:
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Among RBs measured at the combine, he is 12% in height and 31% in weight. I think that does qualify him as a "smaller" back.
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/darrell-henderson
Look at his comparables. None of them other than DeAngelo Williams and maybe Sony Michael were ever anything more than a COP back.
Last edited by a moderator:
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
For fun, I looked up Malcolm Brown on the same site. Ironically, one of his comparables based on his measurables was...Todd Gurley. Not saying it locks up any conclusions, but it could create the argument that if Gurley goes away, Brown takes on his role while Henderson becomes a COP back. Just using their measurables, this is a fair conclusion.
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/malcolm-brown
Hankmoody
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Is his BMI relevant? I'm not the biggest fan of that measure but I thought he came up as a "bigger build" back than many. I'm not gonna fall on this sword but it is possible calling him a small back is categorically false when you factor in his shortness, which I only see as an advantage for a RB.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
BMI 31.6 80th percentile.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
We so need the season to start. Too many people are taking what can only be conjecture as some kind of personal attack, are making mountains out of molehills, and some just seem to be content to make the same argument over and over and yet over again.
Take a breath, take a step back, maybe go out and do something while getting some fresh air, reset your patience.
Take a breath, take a step back, maybe go out and do something while getting some fresh air, reset your patience.
