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Dr. Dan

Josh Jacobs - Raiders RB

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8 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

And yet those same scouts make as many or more mistakes in evaluating players’ prospects for succeeding in the NFL as a lot of we sadly underinformed schlubs here.

Is it that they are wrong or is it that the talent is not just that great on a year to year basis and only the very talented are successful at at the NFL level?

Every year the success level is nearly the same which is very low even in the first round yet their are new scouts every year which leads me to believe that the talent is not that great. All the reasons not to buy too much in the rookie hype. All the reasons trading your draft picks around draft time when the hype is at it’s highest point. Trading those pics for proven commodities that is.

:twocents:

Tex

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14 minutes ago, BigTex said:

Is it that they are wrong or is it that the talent is not just that great on a year to year basis and only the very talented are successful at at the NFL level?

Every year the success level is nearly the same which is very low even in the first round yet their are new scouts every year which leads me to believe that the talent is not that great. All the reasons not to buy too much in the rookie hype. All the reasons trading your draft picks around draft time when the hype is at it’s highest point. Trading those pics for proven commodities that is.

:twocents:

Tex

It depends. Once you get outside the top 20ish vets the bust rate for them is insanely high too, which is something people often overlook when they talk about trading picks. And this year it's unlikely that any picks are landing you a top 20 dynasty player. 

Go back and look at rounds 4-6 of previous year's startup ADP. It's atrocious. 

Heck just taking round 4 from a mere two years ago and taking out the rookies you're looking at only ONE guy in the entire round that is still a fantasy starter. 

Demaryius Thomas

Andrew Luck

Tyrelle Pryor 

Corey Coleman 

Lamar miller

Donte Moncrief

Jordan Reed

Martavis Bryant

Jamison Crowder

Isaiah Crowell

Devante Parker

 

Here are the top 12 rookies from 2017 as a comparison list. 

Fournette

Davis

Mixon

Cook

Williams

Ross

Perine 

OJ Howard

Kamara

Njoku

Foreman

Juju

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

It depends. Once you get outside the top 20ish vets the bust rate for them is insanely high too, which is something people often overlook when they talk about trading picks. And this year it's unlikely that any picks are landing you a top 20 dynasty player. 

Go back and look at rounds 4-6 of previous year's startup ADP. It's atrocious. 

Heck just taking round 4 from a mere two years ago and taking out the rookies you're looking at only ONE guy in the entire round that is still a fantasy starter. 

Demaryius Thomas

Andrew Luck

Tyrelle Pryor 

Corey Coleman 

Lamar miller

Donte Moncrief

Jordan Reed

Martavis Bryant

Jamison Crowder

Isaiah Crowell

Devante Parker

This is kinda what I’m saying. The talent coming in is just not as good year to year some only make it because of injury or other forces but it could be a combination of both. With the bust rate of 1st rounders, 2nd and 3 rounders it gets higher at each round with teams totally wishing they could hit on two or three picks a year which would be considered a successful draft. To me that has more to do with the level of talent than it does scouts even though there’s some level of validity to the argument.

Tex

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Bleacher Report's Matt Miller called Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs "by far my favorite running back in this class."

Miller put Jacobs (5'10/216) inside the top-5 on his big board and went on a podcast to further plant his flag on Jacobs as RB1. Jacobs brings anger to his runs, but he remains controlled in his movements, which gives makes him a threat as a runner and receiver. Miller also notes that Jacobs is a leader in the clubhouse and has zero injury history, which is very hard to find at this position. If Jacobs doesn't faceplant at the NFL Combine, it's likely that he will end up as the first running back off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft.

SOURCE: The Draft Board

Feb 24, 2019, 4:24 PM

 

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46 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

[Rapoport] #Bama RB Josh Jacobs, one of the most highly touted RBs in this coming draft, is dealing with a groin injury and will do limited work in Indy at the Combine, source says. Nothing major, but knocks him out of several drills

 

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1100144529196417031?s=20

 

Wow.  That’s convenient.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Disappointed to hear he has a groin injury and will be a limited participant at the combine.

For a guy who we know less about this is not ideal.

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33 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Wow.  That’s convenient.

yellow flag for me

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Breaking: guy whose college coach didn’t trust him to carry a full load not healthy enough to participate in combine.

It’s almost as if there is reasoning behind his usage. Funny how that works. 

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ESPN's Matt Bowen ranks Alabama RB Josh Jacobs the top tailback in the 2019 NFL Draft class prior to the combine.

In Bowen's headline, he writes that what stands out for Jacobs is his "explosion and versatility." He cites his ability to make jump-cuts that cause defenders to miss, and he's also a quality pass-catcher with soft hands. "With pro-ready skills that flash on tape -- plus advanced technique in pass protection -- Jacobs could be a first-round pick," Bowen summarizes. It sure seems like he's going to be the first tailback off the board in 2019 at this point.

SOURCE: ESPN

Feb 25, 2019, 10:49 AM

 

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Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs measured in at 5-foot-10, 220-pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine on Wednesday.

Jacobs was listed at 5-foot-10, 216-pounds at Alabama, so this is what we were expecting from the Crimson Tide tailback; or close, anyway. He's going to be limited at the events because of a groin injury, but nothing that happened at the height/weight portion is going to keep him from being considered at the top of the tailback board.

SOURCE: Charles Robinson on Twitter

Feb 27, 2019, 8:28 AM

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That seems like a solid weight for him. Not that different from 216 but at least he didn't come in a 205 lbs or something

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NFL Film's Greg Cossell believes that Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs is a three-down running back.

Cossell loosely compares Jacobs (5'10/216) to Alvin Kamara (quickness and contact balance), Ezekiel Elliott (finishing power), and Christian McCaffery (versatility), so it's safe to say that Cossell likes what he sees. Since Jacobs' opted to not test at the NFL Scouting Combine, it's hard to predict how high Jacobs will go in the draft, but anywhere from No. 13 overall to the early second-round wouldn't be overly surprising. Teams are likely split on the positional value of running back, especially one that wasn't heavily used in college.

SOURCE: Ross Tucker Podcast

Mar 15, 2019, 8:54 PM

 

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2 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Alabama pro day is today....lets see if he does anything

While I want him to do everything, from his stock standpoint I wonder if he should do nothing at this point. 

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Flight attendant just shut the door for my flight up to Bristol but one of our @seniorbowl scouts just texted me from @AlabamaFTBL pro-day and junior RB Josh Jacobs just ran in the 4.6’s in his first 40-yard dash...plenty fast enough when you run as angry as Jacobs does.

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Jordan Reid @JReidNFL 

Josh Jacobs is definitely a build up, downhill speed type of runner. Really apparent with his first run.

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6 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Flight attendant just shut the door for my flight up to Bristol but one of our @seniorbowl scouts just texted me from @AlabamaFTBL pro-day and junior RB Josh Jacobs just ran in the 4.6’s in his first 40-yard dash...plenty fast enough when you run as angry as Jacobs does.

Yeah......no

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3 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

4.63 to 4.66 according to Jeremiah. I’m sure the tides willl turn today. Some of us have been urging caution from the beginning.

Ugh. Those are pro day times too. Combine he’s prolly a 4.7 guy.

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Media scouts with egg on face.

he might end up good but the talks of him being a top 10 overall talent in the draft were ridiculous.  

No RB with such limited production in college goes in top half of 1st round.

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Absolute best case scenario he’s this guy with better receiving ability: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/chris-carson/

That’s a good outcome but people would have #### on me for saying it an hour ago. He never deserved first round consideration. He is now just another guy like most of the backs in this class which is where he deserved to be from the beginning.

Edited by Bojang0301
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23 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

While I want him to do everything, from his stock standpoint I wonder if he should do nothing at this point. 

Yeah nothing would have been much better. 

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Damn, I wish I were in any leagues where he was already owned so I could capitalize on the ridiculous overreactions.

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Talked to an NFL RB coach who couldn't stop raving about Josh Jacobs. Raved about how hard he played on every snap of film he studied. Raved about how he plays the game "old school," like it's supposed to be played. Raved about how engaging he was in their meeting too. https://t.co/1s1Z535G8p

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7 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Talked to an NFL RB coach who couldn't stop raving about Josh Jacobs. Raved about how hard he played on every snap of film he studied. Raved about how he plays the game "old school," like it's supposed to be played. Raved about how engaging he was in their meeting too. https://t.co/1s1Z535G8p

If "old school" = slow i agree with that assessment.  His 4.63 translates to a 4.7'ish combine time.  Some slow RB's can succeed but the odds go way down.

Below are 40 times for the top 10 ranked dynasty RB's (based on FBG dynasty rankings).  

Barkley - 4.4

McCAffrey - 4.48

Elliott - 4.47

Kamara - 4.56

Gurley - 4.52

Mixon - 4.43

MGIII - 4.52

Chubb - 4.52

D.Johnson - 4.5

Dalvin Cook - 4.49

Edited by ILUVBEER99
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31 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Damn, I wish I were in any leagues where he was already owned so I could capitalize on the ridiculous overreactions.

Overreaction is putting him in the top five of the draft with zero college production. Overreaction is having him as the clear top RB overall and a first round pick with zero college production. Overreaction is not questioning what the scouts saw when there is essentially zero film on the guy. 

This is a correction and a well deserved one.

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55 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

do you mean among RBs or overall?

Overall, but I seriously have to figure out the RB rankings.  I have him bunched together with Montgomery and Sanders now rather than clearly ahead.  

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36 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

theory:  Josh Jacobs' 1st-round potential is/was based entirely on this run, which made him look almost exactly like Ahmad Bradshaw:

https://t.co/SuMlkKXzgl

Yeah there isnt much to watch. One of his best plays on a broken coverage.

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3 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

For what it's worth when he was talking to that NFL Network lady Kim he said he wasn't 100% still.

Not attacking you here as I have seen this narrative across twitter too. I just don’t understand how it’s a plus. He’s been hurt his whole career. People just spin the wheels for this guy and I don’t understand it. So now all the knocks are: little production, played behind one (sometimes two) backs, bad weight compensated speed score (35th percentile even factoring it at high of 4.6), bad broad jump,  and you can’t classify it as misuse because it was Nick f’n Saban. It’s cool if scouts love him because he runs to contact and has some decent catching acumen but this is on a scale of ludicrous I have not seen. At least Christine Michael was a top, top percentile athlete.

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1 minute ago, Bojang0301 said:

Not attacking you here as I have seen this narrative across twitter too. I just don’t understand how it’s a plus. He’s been hurt his whole career. People just spin the wheels for this guy and I don’t understand it. So now all the knocks are: little production, played behind one (sometimes two) backs, bad weight compensated speed score (35th percentile even factoring it at high of 4.6), bad broad jump,  and you can’t classify it as misuse because it was Nick f’n Saban. It’s cool if scouts love him because he runs to contact and has some decent catching acumen but this is on a scale of ludicrous I have not seen. At least Christine Michael was a top, top percentile athlete.

You're not wrong there are MANY warts on him, but running 4.6+ or having a 9'4" broad jump could be because of injury.  There's so much caution with him but someone will see the upside and take him.  

I've done this once before in my rookie rankings and I might have to do it again with Josh Jacobs.  Keep him ranked where I had him, but just put a DND (Do Not Draft) on his name.  

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