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Josh Jacobs - Raiders RB

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NFL.com Analyst Maurice Jones-Drew ranks Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs as the top tailback in the 2019 NFL Draft class.

Jones-Drew believes there are two Day 1 starters in this class: Jacobs, and his former Alabama teammate Damian Harris. "From what I've seen on tape, Jacobs has what it takes to be a three-down back at the next level," he writes. "One weakness that could hinder him is his lack of long speed, especially against the NFL's athletic, fast defenders." Jones-Drew may think that Jacobs is a Day 1 starter, but the question is whether he -- or any running back in this class -- will be a Day 1 draft pick. If he doesn't come off the board in the first 32 picks, he'll probably go very early on Day 2.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Apr 12, 2019, 2:20 PM

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Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.  

Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders

Miles Sanders goes to the Bears

Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs

David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs

Who you got?  

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Fantasy Lab's Adam Levitan notes that Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs met 5-of-6 minimum thresholds for fantasy football success.

Jacobs (5'10/216) barely met most of these minimums -- forty, vertical, broad, and bench -- at the Alabama Pro Day, however, so there is an asterisk here as Levitan mentions. Despite testing like a below-average athlete, Jacobs is maintaining fringe Day 1 status, which is arguably the most important aspect for projecting fantasy football success for rookies.

SOURCE: DK Playbook

Apr 13, 2019, 12:31 PM

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.  

Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders

Miles Sanders goes to the Bears

Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs

David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs

Who you got?  

It probably depends somewhat on draft capital.  If Jacobs is to the Raiders in the late 1st and Henderson/Montgomery are early/late 3rd then I am still taking Jacobs first.  If they all go in the 2nd (Jacobs/Henderson early 2nd, Montgomery late 2nd) then things get interesting.

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.  

Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders

Miles Sanders goes to the Bears

Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs

David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs

Who you got?  

I think you're missing some teams that will likely draft backs

Buffalo - they've got a big armed qb who can run and lots of speed at receiver, now they need a younger running back to work with 31 year old McCoy and 36 year old Frank gore.

Houston - has to be addressed eventually

Atlanta - freeman looked awesome with Shanahan but hasnt produced argume signing his big contract

Minnesota - need to replace murray and hedge against cook's injuries

NY Giants  could use a backup

Philadelphia - ned a complement for howard

Arizona - not a priority but they'll want to protect their young qb

Carolina - take some of the weight off mccaffrey's shoulders 

Dallas - if they're serious about contending, rb2 should be improved

Packers - was jones a Mccarthyism 

Colts - already hosted ajayi

Miami - patriots coaching tree

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

Jacobs went 4.08 in my FFPC superflex startup. Just one data point take it as you will. RB20.

That's nuts in superflex, especially without knowing landing spot . Very risky pick on multiple levels.  

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.  

Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders

Miles Sanders goes to the Bears

Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs

David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs

Who you got?  

I like these, and they seem like good fits with the team's system.  I think Houston would be an amazing landing spot too. 

The competition is pedestrian and the offense is really good.  I could see Jacobs or Sanders going there. Im skeptical of the Raiders taking Jacobs.  I think we might see RBs fall a bit this year and have teams not invest early picks there. 

If I was a GM of a team, I would be following the draft for talent philosophy and getting my TEs this year and getting RBs next year. 

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21 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

That's nuts in superflex, especially without knowing landing spot . Very risky pick on multiple levels.  

I thought it was early. There were definitely other names on the board I liked more. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I think you're missing some teams that will likely draft backs

Buffalo - they've got a big armed qb who can run and lots of speed at receiver, now they need a younger running back to work with 31 year old McCoy and 36 year old Frank gore.

Houston - has to be addressed eventually

Atlanta - freeman looked awesome with Shanahan but hasnt produced argume signing his big contract

Minnesota - need to replace murray and hedge against cook's injuries

NY Giants  could use a backup

Philadelphia - ned a complement for howard

Arizona - not a priority but they'll want to protect their young qb

Carolina - take some of the weight off mccaffrey's shoulders 

Dallas - if they're serious about contending, rb2 should be improved

Packers - was jones a Mccarthyism 

Colts - already hosted ajayi

Miami - patriots coaching tree

I was just going off of the likely best case landing spots for each one of them to maximize their appeal.  Of course there are other landing spots, there's 32 teams, but these seem like the top ones that would fit each one in their skillset the most.  Houston and Buffalo might be the next best option for a RB, but I just went with the best 4.  

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

That's nuts in superflex, especially without knowing landing spot . Very risky pick on multiple levels.  

Seems right to me. He's young, is going to get drafted high which most of the time means he's going to be given every shot to get on the field and I think he's excellent in the passing game which means he can be a solid fantasy contributor even if or until he seizes majority of carries. I've not listed out my RB rankings but doubt I'd take 19 over him.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Seems right to me. He's young, is going to get drafted high which most of the time means he's going to be given every shot to get on the field and I think he's excellent in the passing game which means he can be a solid fantasy contributor even if or until he seizes majority of carries. I've not listed out my RB rankings but doubt I'd take 19 over him.

+1

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Seems right to me. He's young, is going to get drafted high which most of the time means he's going to be given every shot to get on the field and I think he's excellent in the passing game which means he can be a solid fantasy contributor even if or until he seizes majority of carries. I've not listed out my RB rankings but doubt I'd take 19 over him.

It's pick 44 in a superflex.  The way I see it, it's all downside.  No player in that range has the same sort of downside depending so much on dice rolls like landing spot and draft capital.  That's why I think it's risky. 

You have to think 11 or 12 QBs, 11 or 12 WRs, and 3 TEs should g+be gone by then.  That means at least a QB1, a WR1, or a top 3 TE went after him if I'm counting right? 

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3 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

It's pick 44 in a superflex.  The way I see it, it's all downside.  No player in that range has the same sort of downside depending so much on dice rolls like landing spot and draft capital.  That's why I think it's risky. 

You have to think 11 or 12 QBs, 11 or 12 WRs, and 3 TEs should g+be gone by then.  That means at least a QB1, a WR1, or a top 3 TE went after him if I'm counting right? 

Without seeing the draft board I  was concentrating on the RB20 part of the equation, could not really speak on what other player I may or may not have taken him but RB20 seems like a good price to me relative to RB's.

I don't agree on the downside angle. I view it as the opposite actually, picking a young highly drafted pass catching RB like Jacobs is the best bet IMO to gain massive gain in value on that pick and turn 4.8 into someone going top two rounds next season. I could get on board with calling it risky to some degree, but to me it's an upside play.

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21 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Without seeing the draft board I  was concentrating on the RB20 part of the equation, could not really speak on what other player I may or may not have taken him but RB20 seems like a good price to me relative to RB's.

I don't agree on the downside angle. I view it as the opposite actually, picking a young highly drafted pass catching RB like Jacobs is the best bet IMO to gain massive gain in value on that pick and turn 4.8 into someone going top two rounds next season. I could get on board with calling it risky to some degree, but to me it's an upside play.

Yeah I'm saying the other non RB players on the board were probably better picks by a ways if 18 RBs already went.  Relative to RBs, not so bad.  Thats the Aaron Jones or Leonard Fournette area of RBs for me. 

What if he goes in the 3rd or 4th round to a bad landing spot?  That's the huge downside I think is there. We don't know what the NFL thinks of him until the NFL draft, and this is a weird draft class. 

There is upside too of course, with a good landing spot and high draft capital.  He isn't drafted highly yet, though 

Edited by kittenmittens

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

 

What if he goes in the 3rd or 4th round to a bad landing spot?  That's the huge downside I think is there. We don't know what the NFL thinks of him until the NFL draft, and

0% chance of the bolded happening because we do in fact have an idea what the NFL thinks about him. Not the mocks and the lofty overall rankings.  That gave us an idea but the tell was him getting invited to the draft. The NFL does a solid amount of due diligence where a player is expected to go and while some players might drop a little in the draft the NFL would never have invited him to the draft and chose to their main draft commercial I see making the rounds of a Deshaun Watson narrating to Josh Jacobs and referencing his troubled past if they were not confident he was going to get drafted high.

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5 minutes ago, menobrown said:

0% chance of the bolded happening because we do in fact have an idea what the NFL thinks about him. Not the mocks and the lofty overall rankings.  That gave us an idea but the tell was him getting invited to the draft. The NFL does a solid amount of due diligence where a player is expected to go and while some players might drop a little in the draft the NFL would never have invited him to the draft and chose to their main draft commercial I see making the rounds of a Deshaun Watson narrating to Josh Jacobs and referencing his troubled past if they were not confident he was going to get drafted high.

Good point.  I did not catch that he got a draft invite.  I agree that is a pretty good indicator. 

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4 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

It's pick 44 in a superflex.  The way I see it, it's all downside.  No player in that range has the same sort of downside depending so much on dice rolls like landing spot and draft capital.  That's why I think it's risky. 

You have to think 11 or 12 QBs, 11 or 12 WRs, and 3 TEs should g+be gone by then.  That means at least a QB1, a WR1, or a top 3 TE went after him if I'm counting right? 

I don't hate the pick at all. I just liked some other names much better. It's just one draft board, but there were only 8 QBs gone at that point. Murray went as the 2nd rookie off the board with the next pick. Top 3 TE were gone. For that matter, Howard just now went as TE4, at 5.09, who I would absolutely take in FFPC over Jacobs, without knowing landing spots. Cupp, Hilton, Woods, Green, Golladay, Godwin, DJ Moore all available at the time. As RB20 goes though, Lindsay is still available. Ingram, Carson and Penny, Aaron Jones, Cohen. Anyway I don't mind it just thought it was early. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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3 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't hate the pick at all. I just liked some other names much better. It's just one draft board, but there were only 8 QBs gone at that point. Murray went as the 2nd rookie off the board with the next pick. Top 3 TE were gone. For that matter, Howard just now went as TE4, at 5.09, who I would absolutely take in FFPC over Jacobs, without knowing landing spots. Cupp, Hilton, Woods, Green, Golladay, Godwin, DJ Moore all available at the time. As RB20 goes though, Lindsay is still available. Ingram, Carson and Penny, Aaron Jones, Cohen. Anyway I don't mind it just thought it was early. 

I would take him over all those RBs.  The WRs and QBs are more of a toss-up though QBs tend to fall more in FFPC SF compared to regular SF since everyone is capped at picking 3 so there is much less risk of being hung out to dry (and it also means great QB value late in the draft that you have to skip over if you've already filled your 3).

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On 4/13/2019 at 11:43 AM, Zyphros said:

Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.  

Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders

Miles Sanders goes to the Bears

Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs

David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs

Who you got?  

I tried answering this twice and deleted my post each time... it's a tough call. 

I'd likely go with 

1. Jacobs

2. Montgomery

3. Henderson

4. Sanders 

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On 4/13/2019 at 11:43 AM, Zyphros said:

Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.  

Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders

Miles Sanders goes to the Bears

Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs

David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs

Who you got?  

I'd be very curious where Love and Singletary went, because I think they are both as talented as the guys on this list, but for the sake of this exercise:

1.Jacobs, by quite a wide margin. Jacobs might be the 1.1 if both he and Murray were to end up in Oakland.

2. Sanders, the battle for 2nd was tight, so I'll go with the team that runs more often and has better stability. 

3. Henderson, I haven't written off Ronald Jones completely, and Barber could still see GL work. Could be the dreaded RBBC. 

4. Montgomery, I actually don't think KC is a good landing spot for any RB. Damien Williams played very well down the stretch, and while I'm not a fan of the guy, Hyde has some supporters, and Andy Reid seems to be chief(no pun intended) among them. Very likely Montgomery would start the year #3 on the depth chart. 

It wasn't the point of your question, but Henderson to Tampa and Montgomery to KC seem like very unlikely RB's stylistically to those teams. Like they'd be better flip flopped, in which case I'd still support the one in Tampa more. In fact, if Montgomery went to Tampa, I'd have him #2, as I wouldn't worry about him losing as much work. Henderson in KC would still be last, but seems more sensible for their quick strike offense.

I think the Falcons are the really sneaky great landing spot. I'd rather have a RB go there than KC or Chicago. 

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my comp. for Josh Jacobs was a slightly shifter Sony Michel, with better pass catching skills. Anyone agree/disagree with that?

 

edit: feel like he goes to Raiders (#27, #35). Don't think he gets past the Bucs #39

Edited by pbandy1

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15 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

my comp. for Josh Jacobs was a slightly shifter Sony Michel, with better pass catching skills. Anyone agree/disagree with that?

 

edit: feel like he goes to Raiders (#27, #35). Don't think he gets past the Bucs #39

I can see it a little.  I liken him to a smaller version of Steven Jackson.  Raiders seems to be the popular choice right now.  But you're probably right he doesn't get too far into the 2nd round.  

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NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah believes Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs will be drafted in the 20s or 30s.

Jacobs (5'10/216) is not a lock to go in the first round, but it is a tad better than 50/50. The Alabama running back likely would have cemented himself as a Day 1 pick if he showed more athleticism during testing, or if he was featured more under coach Nick Saban. Both of those question marks are big ones, but he showed lots of explosion and balance as a runner and he also showed nice mittens as a pass-catcher. All in all, Jacobs has a very good chance at being the highest drafted running back in the class.

SOURCE: Andrew Howard on Twitter

Apr 18, 2019, 5:47 PM

 

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I don’t get this. It’s like PFF doesn’t trust it’s own assessment. 

The top running back on the PFF Big Board, Josh Jacobs showed his versatility, power and instincts out of the backfield this season. Although his 84.0 overall grade ranks a mere sixth overall in the draft class

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I truly believe the nfl draft media was trying to punk everyone.  Or they are idiots.  

i can’t remember any rb with such limited production and measurable’s being drafted in the 1st round. 

Jacobs May turn out to be great, but based on what he’s done during his college career and his draft numbers the odds are low.

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7 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

I truly believe the nfl draft media was trying to punk everyone.  Or they are idiots.  

i can’t remember any rb with such limited production and measurable’s being drafted in the 1st round. 

Jacobs May turn out to be great, but based on what he’s done during his college career and his draft numbers the odds are low.

Maybe the raiders were talking about taking him, word leaked out, everyone started talking about him going late first or early second because that's where they have 3 picks, and that's why the raiders kicked out all their scouts, then they started telling the draftniks that they're not interested anymore, which is why people are starting to back off now.  

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8 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

I don’t get this. It’s like PFF doesn’t trust it’s own assessment. 

 

 

Them and just about everyone else in regards to Jacobs. You ask them to explain it and they just shrug. He’s an experiment. He belongs nowhere near the top 100 and is not the top back in the class. 

And until I see the man do this, he’s not ####### Alvin Kamara. Alvin Kamara is special, the NFL missed but not really through any fault of their evaluation. If a guy doesn’t produce in college they deserve to be scrutinized and questioned. That has been non-existent with Jacobs and NFL scouts/draftniks for a narrative. 

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Weren't we taking about Damien Harris as the next big thing before last season? He did have back to back 1k seasons in '16 & '17. And expected to do the same in '18 until he had to share time with Jacobs.

I get that we'd like Jacobs to be more "obvious". But should he really be dismissed because he played behind/with Harris?

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Weren't we taking about Damien Harris as the next big thing before last season? He did have back to back 1k seasons in '16 & '17. And expected to do the same in '18 until he had to share time with Jacobs. 

I get that we'd like Jacobs to be more "obvious". But should he really be dismissed because he played behind/with Harris? 

Shhh they might hear you

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I saw a tweet from Bob McGinn's today on his draft series, which I can't read any longer because now you have to pay for it but always enjoyed it in the past. But the one paragraph I was able to read he mentioned that in his 18 years of polling scouts that Jacobs was the 7th RB to receive unanimous top RB grade. Some of the other 7 were busts, Trent and Lacy, but even those bust's retained strong value heading into year two.

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7 hours ago, menobrown said:

I saw a tweet from Bob McGinn's today on his draft series, which I can't read any longer because now you have to pay for it but always enjoyed it in the past. But the one paragraph I was able to read he mentioned that in his 18 years of polling scouts that Jacobs was the 7th RB to receive unanimous top RB grade. Some of the other 7 were busts, Trent and Lacy, but even those bust's retained strong value heading into year two.

That’s more due to this rb class being atrocious.  He’s the best apple in a batch of rotten ones.  

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31 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

That’s more due to this rb class being atrocious.  He’s the best apple in a batch of rotten ones.  

:lol:

false. it lacks a Barkely, but has guys capable of what anyone else in 2018 did/can do

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

:lol:

false. it lacks a Barkely, but has guys capable of what anyone else in 2018 did/can do

False.  Last year there were 6 RBs drafted in the top 50 of the nfl draft.

this year there might be only one.

this RB class is awful overall.  The nfl draft will show that.

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27 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

False.  Last year there were 6 RBs drafted in the top 50 of the nfl draft.

this year there might be only one.

this RB class is awful overall.  The nfl draft will show that.

I disagree. but thays okay

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29 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

 

this RB class is awful overall.  The nfl draft will show that.

 

The draft position is not what determines the value of players in a draft class.

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1 hour ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

That’s more due to this rb class being atrocious.  He’s the best apple in a batch of rotten ones.  

I  would not label them atrocious this year myself.

Either way I don't get to draft a 2020 RB this year. I got to pick a 2019 incoming RB, you may see no value in sorting out the top 2019 RB's but I do.

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20 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

The draft position is not what determines the value of players in a draft class.

Actually going into the draft it kinda does.

of course years later once everything is decided we have a definite answer...but before they play their nfl  draft position is a huge indicator of their values.

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35 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Actually going into the draft it kinda does.

of course years later once everything is decided we have a definite answer...but before they play their nfl  draft position is a huge indicator of their values.

 

Actually it isn’t.  Performance determines value. There are myriad examples of GMs, coaches, and scouts getting player value wrong and drafting busts with high picks while letting future studs fall in the draft.

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ESPN's Jeff Legwold ranked Alabama RB Joshua Jacobs No. 7 overall on his latest top-100 big board.

This is tough for us to get behind but Legwold isn't the only one with a top-10 overall grade on Jacobs as NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah has him at No. 8 overall. Jacobs is the heavy favorite to be the top running back selected in the NFL Draft and for good reason. Legwold describes him as a player with "vision, power and receiving skills" who, despite being a running back, is worth a top-10 selection. Jacobs' lack of collegiate production and athleticism is sure to scare off some teams but a late first-round selection is certainly in play.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Apr 20, 2019, 10:21 AM

 

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Where would Jacobs rank compared to the 2018 RBs?

Behind Kerryon? That would mean he would have been a late first last year. 

Think this is the year to draft WR early and go RB maybe round 2. Or just punt on RBs altogether 

Edited by Gandalf

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9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Actually it isn’t.  Performance determines value. There are myriad examples of GMs, coaches, and scouts getting player value wrong and drafting busts with high picks while letting future studs fall in the draft.

Yes because at the end of the day, only the player drafted knows how hard he will work once drafted. It takes way more than talent to succeed in the NFL. You also need to work harder than you did in college, be a professional, and stay out of trouble off field. 

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Who did Josh Jacobs blackmail to get this kind of hype? Never trust someone who claims their eyes are telling the full story when everything points to it not being true. They show you clips of him running into people but fail to explain that his poor 40 time is exercised on the play, his failure to have elite burst has made him run to contact against a defender. His superior OLine is giving him precious extra seconds to side step the line. It is not superior vision or skill that is leading to these plays it is the product of the system. I think he has good hands and looks like a decent receiver (the one part of the game that often is difficult to to quantify if the skill is there and goes unused). He’s not elite in any way, shape or form. Why would any team take a non-elite back in the top 50? Why would any competitive dynasty player take a stab in the dark at 1.01-1.06 on someone with so many negatives against them on blind trust to people who refuse to explain why he played behind a supposed inferior back for three seasons?

They create and spin a positive narrative for the kid when even if you’re looking at things outside the number his narrative is bad. He was the #2, sometimes #3 back. He failed to put up any sort of significant production both from a yearly stand point and in a game by game stand point. He’s had several injuries in a complimentary role. He had a horrible pro day that they spun up as adequate. 

I’m not saying he’s not good. In fact, I’m doing my best to try to remove such terms from my vocabulary for players. Some players are only adequate athletes that are able to produce at a high level from their situation. Jacobs could indeed have a high level of success despite what the predictive metrics say. Let’s stop playing patty cake, pretend though that he’s some special prospect. He’s not. I would say that a guy like Benny Snell with the same athleticism who was able to produce as a young back in the SEC has far more chance to have a Jordan Howard-esk career than I would betting on Jacobs to have that kind of success or to the extremes of people suggesting he is Kareem Hunt. 

Edited by Bojang0301

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3 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Where would Jacobs rank compared to the 2018 RBs?

Behind Kerryon? That would mean he would have been a late first last year. 

Think this is the year to draft WR early and go RB maybe round 2. Or just punt on RBs altogether 

I think he would have initially been considered near the Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Kerryon Johnson group yeah, but after the combine, he'd clearly be behind them.  

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