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Joshua Jacobs - RB

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49 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

 

Its why I’ll stick to my guns on Jacobs. I actually think he could post a top 24 season this year. 

Does "thinking he could post a top 24 season" justify his current ADP, dynasty or redraft?

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21 hours ago, LawFitz said:

You had me until this. Any stat that ranks Kamara worst out of 50 has to be garbage.

I do admit the first list does look concerning though.

Kamara obviously is a very good pro. He wasn't an elite prospect, and landed in perhaps the perfect situation for him.  Nobody should say he wouldn't have done well elsewhere, but I'm not sure he'd have been as good for most teams. 

If you think Oakland is comparable to NO, have at it. 

Personally I think Damien Harris could be better, although he's unlikely to get as much play early on.

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7 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Does "thinking he could post a top 24 season" justify his current ADP, dynasty or redraft?

:no:

especially when 2 others drafted below him could very possibly finish higher 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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8 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Does "thinking he could post a top 24 season" justify his current ADP, dynasty or redraft?

That’s the difficulty with opportunity and capital.  Say Ronald Jones is your absolute bottom of the barrel worst case scenario. He still has value this year, more so than say Chase Edmonds. What would Jones fetch right now? A second this year or a late first? I guess that’s always what makes the discussion tough. I would probably try to be trading down if I was rebuilding in a top slot but I don’t think it’s a death sentence to take him as long as you’re willing to walk away quickly if he isn’t what you think he is. There is still the opportunity to exceed any predictive traits he has given. I’d imagine he’ll have multiple chances to succeed this year with only Martin and Richard there.

Edited by Bojang0301

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that backcast model whiffs on Kamara because he didn't dominate his college teams touches/production.

It also loves dudes like Ron Dayne  who dominate college.

 

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

that backcast model whiffs on Kamara because he didn't dominate his college teams touches/production.

It also loves dudes like Ron Dayne  who dominate college.

 

 

It does.  It’s an attempt to group factual data in some way to allow for some kind of reasonable predictive value.  It’s not going to be 100% accurate - these are humans and their performance being measured, complete accuracy simply is not realistic and there are going to be misses - but it does provide an interesting measuring stick with some strong history in capturing early round NFL draft misses with guys who were post-draft FF darlings but had warts that their numerous proponents refused to see or perhaps rather preferred to overlook.

Just ignoring this kind of stuff because of a miss or two seems like not drafting Elliott, Gurley, or Barkley because Trent Richardson was a bust so you’re just not going to pick a highly drafted RB ever.

 

Edited by Bronco Billy
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11 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Does "thinking he could post a top 24 season" justify his current ADP, dynasty or redraft?

Jacobs is very talented, a great inside runner who can catch. He has a top 5 TE to keep LBs and safeties busy. One of if not the best WR in the NFL to worry the entire secondary.

I’m taking him 1.1 then Monty 1.2, Fant 1.4, either Murray or T.J. at 1.5 then I’ll sit and wait in the 2nd round to see which WRs fall to me.

Tex

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1 minute ago, BigTex said:

Jacobs is very talented, a great inside runner who can catch. He has a top 5 TE to keep LBs and safeties busy. One of if not the best WR in the NFL to worry the entire secondary.

I’m taking him 1.1 then Monty 1.2, Fant 1.4, either Murray or T.J. at 1.5 then I’ll sit and wait in the 2nd round to see which WRs fall to me.

Tex

SayWhat?

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Just now, SayWhat? said:

SayWhat?

Jared Cook 

Tex

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

SayWhat?  Better check on that.😉

Lol what I miss?

Tex

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8 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

It does.  It’s an attempt to group factual data in some way to allow for some kind of reasonable predictive value.  It’s not going to be 100% accurate - these are humans and their performance being measured, complete accuracy simply is not realistic and there are going to be misses - but it does provide an interesting measuring stick with some strong history in capturing early round NFL draft misses with guys who were post-draft FF darlings but had warts that their numerous proponents refused to see or perhaps rather preferred to overlook.

Just ignoring this kind of stuff because of a miss or two seems like not drafting Elliott, Gurley, or Barkley because Trent Richardson was a bust so you’re just not going to pick a highly drafted RB ever.

 

Its a nice formula....i never seen this one before...i like that one dr dan had earlier this offseason as well....

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9 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

that backcast model whiffs on Kamara because he didn't dominate his college teams touches/production.

It also loves dudes like Ron Dayne  who dominate college.

 

See this is what I'm looking for - where are their full predictions so I can see what the hit rate is?  That miss rate is impressive - of course they won't bat 1.000 and Kamara is a huge outlier, but overall it seems a good indicator.

I did find their highest rating from 1998-2015 and it wasn't quite as impressive.  I'd also like to see their entire list of worst scores, not just 1st and 2nd rounders, so we can see if there are other outliers like Kamara on there from later rounds.  I wonder what Kareem Hunt's was?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/introducing-backcast

Is this premium content that I could see if I were a paying customer?

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Here is all the Football Outsiders BackCAST data that I've seen posted on their site, collected in one place.

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3 hours ago, ZWK said:

Here is all the Football Outsiders BackCAST data that I've seen posted on their site, collected in one place.

@ZWK this seems very similar to what you do in your threads...

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4 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

@ZWK this seems very similar to what you do in your threads...

Yeah, Football Outsiders is one of the places that does analytics-based prospect ratings, and I do too. There are others who also do it, like Josh Hermsmeyer.

There are going to be some differences between any two analysts who come up with their own ratings formula based on things like which variables they include, though often there will be ways in which analytics folks cluster together in opposition to tape-based player evaluators.

And there are often more basic philosophical or methodological differences between different folks who do analytics-based prospect ratings. For instance, Football Outsiders likes to fit regressions to historical data, while I like to find a bunch of relevant-seeming variables and take something like a weighted average. Football Outsiders' approach has some flaws, and my approach has some flaws, and I have more confidence the analytics when multiple analyses all point in the same direction. And when the tape watchers

In the case of Jacobs, both approaches are saying roughly the same thing. He had a pretty small workload in college, and he had fairly lousy workout numbers, and those are both have both been bad signs for RBs (even if you only look at RBs who earned early round draft picks). There are some factors which partially counteract those concerns (the Alabama RB corps was stacked) and other factors in his favor (e.g., he showed good receiving skills), but I believe in the analytics enough so that I like him less than a typical late first round RB. But I still like him more than any of the other RBs in this draft, given their draft positions (and the opinions of tape watchers / mainstream talent evaluators).

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9 hours ago, ZWK said:

Yeah, Football Outsiders is one of the places that does analytics-based prospect ratings, and I do too. There are others who also do it, like Josh Hermsmeyer.

There are going to be some differences between any two analysts who come up with their own ratings formula based on things like which variables they include, though often there will be ways in which analytics folks cluster together in opposition to tape-based player evaluators.

And there are often more basic philosophical or methodological differences between different folks who do analytics-based prospect ratings. For instance, Football Outsiders likes to fit regressions to historical data, while I like to find a bunch of relevant-seeming variables and take something like a weighted average. Football Outsiders' approach has some flaws, and my approach has some flaws, and I have more confidence the analytics when multiple analyses all point in the same direction. And when the tape watchers

In the case of Jacobs, both approaches are saying roughly the same thing. He had a pretty small workload in college, and he had fairly lousy workout numbers, and those are both have both been bad signs for RBs (even if you only look at RBs who earned early round draft picks). There are some factors which partially counteract those concerns (the Alabama RB corps was stacked) and other factors in his favor (e.g., he showed good receiving skills), but I believe in the analytics enough so that I like him less than a typical late first round RB. But I still like him more than any of the other RBs in this draft, given their draft positions (and the opinions of tape watchers / mainstream talent evaluators).

So this is where I think you have to look at a couple of things, dudes that dominate at college despite a bad athletic profile - Ron Dayne (although he was great for me one season in the playoffs for Houston I believe, won me atitle) or small school dudes  who dominate touches and performance but IMO wont live up to the hype, Luke Staley.....Darrel Henderson will be an interesting case this model loves him, however he has a giant roadblock in gurley. 

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29 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

So this is where I think you have to look at a couple of things, dudes that dominate at college despite a bad athletic profile - Ron Dayne (although he was great for me one season in the playoffs for Houston I believe, won me atitle) or small school dudes  who dominate touches and performance but IMO wont live up to the hype, Luke Staley.....Darrel Henderson will be an interesting case this model loves him, however he has a giant roadblock in gurley. 

Is Gurley really a "giant roadblock."

My Link

Edited by TripItUp

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On 5/25/2019 at 7:41 PM, ZWK said:

Here is all the Football Outsiders BackCAST data that I've seen posted on their site, collected in one place.

Something isn't jiving.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/introducing-backcast

Below is a table of the top 25 BackCAST scores from 1998-2015:

Top 25 BackCAST Scores, 1998-2015

LaDainian Tomlinson200115TCU+182.1%

Ricky Williams199915Texas+177.9%

T.J. Duckett2002118Michigan St.+155.1%

Matt Forte2008244Tulane+131.7%

DeAngelo Williams2006127Memphis+130.4%

Ron Dayne2000111Wisconsin+128.1%

etc.

 

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5 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Something isn't jiving.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/introducing-backcast

Below is a table of the top 25 BackCAST scores from 1998-2015:

Top 25 BackCAST Scores, 1998-2015

LaDainian Tomlinson200115TCU+182.1%

Ricky Williams199915Texas+177.9%

T.J. Duckett2002118Michigan St.+155.1%

Matt Forte2008244Tulane+131.7%

DeAngelo Williams2006127Memphis+130.4%

Ron Dayne2000111Wisconsin+128.1%

etc.

 

They've tinkered with the formula that they use for BackCAST, so the tables that they post one year don't always exactly match the ones from the previous year. The last column of my spreadsheet says which year's version of BackCAST I took the numbers from. I mostly went with their 2017 post, rather than the 2016 post that you linked.

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FMIA: The Determination of Bart Starr (autoplay video)

Excerpt:

Quote

King: Amazing how little Josh Jacobs was used at Alabama. He ran it 20 times or more just once in his college career.

Gruden: I know! It’s incredible. He really got discovered late in the season when he got a chance to play. The way he played without the ball against Clemson is what really caught our eye. He can return kicks. We really wanted him. He’s exactly what I have been looking for. He’s got the ability to catch it. He can run it inside, outside. He’s not afraid to pick up the blitz. He loves to. There’s a lot of untapped football in there that no one’s seen yet. We felt he was one of the top players in the draft, honestly.

 

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I might end up regretting it (as the 1.01 owner) but I just really liked what I saw on tape. I don't have him 100% locked in at 1.01, but I'm at about 75% right now. I still need to watch more tape on Montgomery and Sanders, but I've watched enough tape on Harry and the other WRs to know that I want to take a RB at the top.

Jacobs didn't get a ton of play at Alabama compared to many other backs in college, but whenever Bama needed to secure a win or come from behind, Jacobs was the back that Saban turned to. He was solid in pass protection and in the passing game, so he offers 3-down work, unlike Sanders who will be in a committee due to scheme and Montgomery who will share time with Cohen. Richard is much less of a threat to playing time for Jacobs. 

I get that lack of playing time is both a negative and a positive, but his game tape looks really good. Often there are narrow holes for Jacobs to run through, and he is able to make the split second decision to hit the gap that many other RBs fail to do well. Bama did have one of the best lines in the country, but that doesn't mean that the line didn't get blown up a lot when facing a stiff front. You need to see the game tape to verify things like that. People love Darrell Henderson because of his high YPC, but the holes he ran through were wide enough for most backs to succeed. Jacobs is often cutting through narrow gaps and running through arm tackles, or putting a game away in the 4th when the defense knows that Bama is going to run it. 

Jacobs reminds me of Michael Thomas. Coming out of Ohio St he wasn't the fastest, most athletic player, his stats weren't astounding, but if you watched game tape he just played really well. 

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I am officially 100% on board with Josh Jacobs.

 

I can see 1,200 yards / 9 touchdowns if healthy.

Edited by Raptors409
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On 6/8/2019 at 11:13 AM, Raptors409 said:

I am officially 100% on board with Josh Jacobs.

 

I can see 1,200 yards / 9 touchdowns if healthy.

Me too. And to prove it, I just made a deal to acquire him: I got Josh Jacobs for ADP, Guice, Metcalf and Isabella. I’m pairing him with Zeke and Kamara and preparing to dominate my league haha. That’s how much I like Jacobs though.

Edited by Gandalf
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2 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Me too. And to prove it, I just made a deal to acquire him: I got Josh Jacobs for ADP, Guice, Metcalf and Isabella. I’m pairing him with Zeke and Kamara and preparing to dominate my league haha. That’s how much I like Jacobs though.

 

If this is a dynasty league, I have a feeling you’re going to live to regret that trade, and that’s even allowing for Jacobs to perform like you think he will.  If he doesn’t (which is my opinion of him) it could get downright epically one sided.

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9 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

If this is a dynasty league, I have a feeling you’re going to live to regret that trade, and that’s even allowing for Jacobs to perform like you think he will.  If he doesn’t (which is my opinion of him) it could get downright epically one sided.

It’s not a strict dynasty but a salary cap league. I’m in full win now mode and I like Jacobs the best. Plus our bench is only 8 deep and I have other keepers including Harry, Harris, Murray, and JJAW. I’m also worried about Guice’s knee and have not been a Metcalf believer. So in my mind, I got my guy for this year and beyond. And this was the cost of Jacobs. I couldn’t have gotten him for less. I did try haha. But again I’m a big believer in his talent and opportunity.

Edited by Gandalf

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14 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Me too. And to prove it, I just made a deal to acquire him: I got Josh Jacobs for ADP, Guice, Metcalf and Isabella. I’m pairing him with Zeke and Kamara and preparing to dominate my league haha. That’s how much I like Jacobs though.

Wow

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

Wow

Yep. We will see if I’m write. I think I am obviously. I like making big trades though.

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2 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Yep. We will see if I’m write. I think I am obviously. I like making big trades though.

I'm just very high on the three pieces you gave.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm just very high on the three pieces you gave.

Not ADP? 😁

It’s okay if no one gets the deal. It has to do in part with league rules and specific issues I have with Guice (injury), Metcalf (agility) and Isabella (crowded offense in the short term). I posted more as an example of how great I think Jacobs will be. I think he’s headed to RB1 town as early as this season.

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@Gandalf - you said it was a salary cap league - what are the corresponding salaries for the players in this trade?

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15 minutes ago, Faust said:

@Gandalf - you said it was a salary cap league - what are the corresponding salaries for the players in this trade?

It’s not worth hi jacking the whole thread and getting too bogged down with league specifics.  The salaries are similar between Jacobs and Guice but Jacobs can be had one more year. The reason I referenced salary cap had more to do with wanting to take advantage of Zeke and Kamara’s window over the next 3-4 years. The other factor is that the way the salary cap is structured, no player is ever kept beyond 6 years, almost ever. Last the timing of when Guice will need to be signed to a long term deal (next year) and not trusting his knee long term. 

To simplify, think of it as a 5 year league and needing to sign guys to more expensive long term contracts, 2 years after their cheap rookie deal expires.

Edited by Gandalf
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12 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

 Guice will need to be signed to a long term deal (next year) and not trusting his knee long term. 

Wasn’t it just a simple ACL year?

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32 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Wasn’t it just a simple ACL year?

Complicated by infection and 3 procedures to drain the knee. So no.

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9 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Complicated by infection and 3 procedures to drain the knee. So no.

An infection is not a long lasting complication.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

An infection is not a long lasting complication.

It can be. And minimally it setback his recovery.

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This is the most interesting conversation in here lately... even if it is a hijack!!

I would have been concerned about the infection last October, and my concerns would have been "I am just not sure how he's going to look in May/June" By all accounts everything I see/read/hear is easing to any concerns I may have had. I'm more just hoping he has enough strength balance to take on full speed NFL football, so my concerns are of a strained muscle that might linger or sideline him for some time. The knee itself I'm not concerned over. If the infection was causing a potential long term problem they would have replaced the ACL again while he still had ample time to recover. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is the most interesting conversation in here lately... even if it is a hijack!!

I would have been concerned about the infection last October, and my concerns would have been "I am just not sure how he's going to look in May/June" By all accounts everything I see/read/hear is easing to any concerns I may have had. I'm more just hoping he has enough strength balance to take on full speed NFL football, so my concerns are of a strained muscle that might linger or sideline him for some time. The knee itself I'm not concerned over. If the infection was causing a potential long term problem they would have replaced the ACL again while he still had ample time to recover. 

Good points. The thing is I think it affects how much Washington uses him in 2019. He also won’t be heavily involved in the passing game. And has Bryce Love breathing down his neck long-term.

Now contrast with Jacobs, 3-down RB, less competition, not coming off an ACL injury, and with first round RB draft capital. I’m going all in.

 

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6 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Good points. The thing is I think it affects how much Washington uses him in 2019. He also won’t be heavily involved in the passing game. And has Bryce Love breathing down his neck long-term.

Now contrast with Jacobs, 3-down RB, less competition, not coming off an ACL injury, and with first round RB draft capital. I’m going all in.

 

I don't fault anyone for having this opinion. I disagree. And I'd easily take Guice over Jacobs.

My personal opinion is that if someone is worried about Guice's knee long term, but not worried about Love's knee short and long term, then that's inconsistent. Love's knee is reportedly not good and I don't think returning to full health is as much of a guarantee as his fans/owners want to think it is. That's a knee I am very concerned about. Guice seems to be doing great.

I'll be devil's advocate about Jacobs and say that Richard is still there to grab the receptions, so Jacobs may not be as 3 down as people think he may be.

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I don't fault anyone for having this opinion. I disagree. And I'd easily take Guice over Jacobs.

My personal opinion is that if someone is worried about Guice's knee long term, but not worried about Love's knee short and long term, then that's inconsistent. Love's knee is reportedly not good and I don't think returning to full health is as much of a guarantee as his fans/owners want to think it is. That's a knee I am very concerned about. Guice seems to be doing great.

I'll be devil's advocate about Jacobs and say that Richard is still there to grab the receptions, so Jacobs may not be as 3 down as people think he may be.

Just look at what Washington has done though. They resigned ADP to a two year deal, then drafted Bryce Love in round 3. You have to be more concerned than if they didn’t do that, no?

Richards could take some targets but Jacobs will be involved in the passing game. I don’t think we can say that about Guice.

Edited by Gandalf

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28 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Just look at what Washington has done though. They resigned ADP to a two year deal, then drafted Bryce Love in round 3. You have to be more concerned than if they didn’t do that, no?

Richards could take some targets but Jacobs will be involved in the passing game. I don’t think we can say that about Guice.

Heres how I see Washingtons offseason, and I wont disagree if someone says I'm seeing what I want to see... it's very possible and I acknowledge that. I'd like to think this is what's going on:

Washington resigns AP to an extremely cheap contract. Malcolm Brown and Frank Gore will make more than AP in 2019. If AP had a lot left and was such a valuable asset they wouldnt have signed him to essentially a 1 year deal at minimum salary. I see them bringing AP back as an ultra insurance play since they dont have a lot at RB if Guice did have secondary issues. 

Love I think was just decent value. Washington stands to have no RBs on their roster for 2020 aside from Guice. Love can be IRed and try again next year. If he can be of some decent backup value, great. if not then it was only a 4th round pick. I think I read somewhere that there is a staggering number of 4th rounders who dont finish their rookie contracts. 

So while one person might see a FA signing and draft capital spent being a yellow flag, I see it as very minimum investment on both accounts. If Guice was in bad shape they wouldnt have taken a RB who needs to redshirt a year (and no guarantees after that) and signed a great player who probably doesnt have a whole lot left in the tank. 

 

ETA: I certainly dont fault anyone for liking Jacobs situation better. I may disagree but I understand the thought process and I dont think its absurd (I just think it's wrong! :) )

Edited by Dr. Dan
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14 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Heres how I see Washingtons offseason, and I wont disagree if someone says I'm seeing what I want to see... it's very possible and I acknowledge that. I'd like to think this is what's going on:

Washington resigns AP to an extremely cheap contract. Malcolm Brown and Frank Gore will make more than AP in 2019. If AP had a lot left and was such a valuable asset they wouldnt have signed him to essentially a 1 year deal at minimum salary. I see them bringing AP back as an ultra insurance play since they dont have a lot at RB if Guice did have secondary issues. 

Love I think was just decent value. Washington stands to have no RBs on their roster for 2020 aside from Guice. Love can be IRed and try again next year. If he can be of some decent backup value, great. if not then it was only a 4th round pick. I think I read somewhere that there is a staggering number of 4th rounders who dont finish their rookie contracts. 

So while one person might see a FA signing and draft capital spent being a yellow flag, I see it as very minimum investment on both accounts. If Guice was in bad shape they wouldnt have taken a RB who needs to redshirt a year (and no guarantees after that) and signed a great player who probably doesnt have a whole lot left in the tank. 

 

ETA: I certainly dont fault anyone for liking Jacobs situation better. I may disagree but I understand the thought process and I dont think its absurd (I just think it's wrong! :) )

I would say this is the best case take on what Washington did this off season. I’m polar opposite, but it’s okay. We are the bookends.

Back to Jacobs. I’m also a believer now. Jacobs would be my 11th RB in dynasty (above Cook, Guice, Michel) and maybe 15th in redraft. 

Edited by Gandalf
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2 hours ago, Gandalf said:

I would say this is the best case take on what Washington did this off season. I’m polar opposite, but it’s okay. We are the bookends.

Back to Jacobs. I’m also a believer now. Jacobs would be my 11th RB in dynasty (above Cook, Guice, Michel) and maybe 15th in redraft. 

Absolutely, it's a best case take. I can openly admit it

 

What makes you have Jacob's above Cook? I'm surprised by that. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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