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2021 Work Stoppage? Ruh oh...

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The year everyone said would only happen in fantasyland.....the year the surging NBA finally takes over as most watched sport. The NFL can't afford this to happen.

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Maybe the players will fight for the right things this time, but I doubt it. 

Too big of a gulf between the stars and the guys at the bottom of the roster.(in terms of what they value from the CBA)

 

 

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36 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

The year everyone said would only happen in fantasyland.....the year the surging NBA finally takes over as most watched sport. The NFL can't afford this to happen.

Lol the NBA,  really.  Let's see watch grass grow or watch an NBA game? I'll go with watching grass grow.  I'm amazed anyone can sit through more than 30 seconds of that garbage. 

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3 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

Lol the NBA,  really.  Let's see watch grass grow or watch an NBA game? I'll go with watching grass grow.  I'm amazed anyone can sit through more than 30 seconds of that garbage. 

Honestly not sure how you make this argument with a straight face versus watching a football game.

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3 minutes ago, matuski said:

Honestly not sure how you make this argument with a straight face versus watching a football game.

Couldn't pay me enough to watch a sorry NBA game

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Just now, irish eyes said:

Couldn't pay me enough to watch a sorry NBA game

I watch both, and if anything basketball is trending at being better and better to watch.  They do a good job of keeping the game going.

The opposite for NFL. Advertisement, kickoff, penalty, advertisement, a drive, review a play for 5 minutes, punt, penalty, advertisement, drive, penalty, advertisement, score, advertisement, kick off, advertisement, drive, play review, drive, time out, advertisement, quarter, advertisement, injury, advertisement, .... 

Hard to sit through an entire live game.

I'll have a live game on, but spend more time watching the redzone... every time you look at the live game they aren't playing.  Getting worse every year it feels like.

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41 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

Maybe the players will fight for the right things this time, but I doubt it. 

Too big of a gulf between the stars and the guys at the bottom of the roster.(in terms of what they value from the CBA)

This.  

With that said, the owners were resolute in improving the CBA in their favor in 2011.  Pendulum swung significantly in the other direction.

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Nobody is losing money so this is pretty much nothing to worry about. With gambling all in by then it'll be too big to fail. 

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Players shelf lives are too short to make a stand and the owners know this. The current players, who negotiate the deal, won’t be dying on the cross for the benefit of future NFLers currently in college high school or middle school. What will happen is an increase in the vet minimum, thereby helping the majority of players and a lowering of draft pick pay. Once again, why fight for guys not in the league yet??

End result: draft pick values go up as draft picks get paid less. 

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Putting that in contracts is just smart risk mitigation.  Who knows what it means.  It should probably have been in all contracts forever whenever they were getting close to a CBA re-negotiation.

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36 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

Lol the NBA,  really.  Let's see watch grass grow or watch an NBA game? I'll go with watching grass grow.  I'm amazed anyone can sit through more than 30 seconds of that garbage. 

NBA is unwatchable. pass, pass, shoot 3, repeat. :wall:

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2 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

The year everyone said would only happen in fantasyland.....the year the surging NBA finally takes over as most watched sport. The NFL can't afford this to happen.

I guess anything can happen, but the parity issues in the NBA are a problem IMHO. Just make it a six-team league already.

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1 hour ago, irish eyes said:

Lol the NBA,  really.  Let's see watch grass grow or watch an NBA game? I'll go with watching grass grow.  I'm amazed anyone can sit through more than 30 seconds of that garbage. 

The product is actually good in the NBA (when teams aren't playing iso all the time). It's just that 20+ teams don't matter.

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1 hour ago, Edgar said:

End result: draft pick values go up as draft picks get paid less. 

Any way at all to get the players to buy in on having more rounds in the draft? I guess that really only benefits star players, though (makes it easier to construct a roster cheaply at 40 positions so that the top 4 or 5 guys can make bank).

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2 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

The year everyone said would only happen in fantasyland.....the year the surging NBA finally takes over as most watched sport. The NFL can't afford this to happen.

College ball >>> NBA

ok, maybe it's personal preference but still you know I'm right ;)

2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The product is actually good in the NBA (when teams aren't playing iso all the time). It's just that 20+ teams don't matter.

Part of the problem (for me anyway) is I stopped paying attention to the NBA when I left Detroit (bad boys forever!) And now don't want to get back into it when it's basically golden state and LeBron that matter.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Any way at all to get the players to buy in on having more rounds in the draft? I guess that really only benefits star players, though (makes it easier to construct a roster cheaply at 40 positions so that the top 4 or 5 guys can make bank).

Pretty sure the UDFA works the same, perhaps better.

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31 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I guess anything can happen, but the parity issues in the NBA are a problem IMHO. Just make it a six-team league already.

It's getting better this year.

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5 hours ago, Doug B said:

when teams aren't playing iso all the time

This drives me crazy about the NBA - basketball should be a team game.  I don't like watching the best player on a team waving everyone off so he can go one on one.

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It's better now than it was a few years ago but the slashed money to rookies hasn't trickled to veterans like it was pitched.  I think they made the right moves to shift money away from rookies, but they went too far and unintentionally hurt veterans.  Why sign a similarly talented but more experienced 27 year old when I can just pick a fresher 22 year old for less money and more control?  Later round 1 and day 2 salary scales need bumped up.  I can't imagine this being a big deal and even just modest tweaks will be a boon to the players as tier 2 (and 3?) free agent vets won't be as susceptible to the squeeze.

The suspension and fine policies will also be big deals for the players.  I expect this to be messier.  Weed will be a concession, but I'm wary the owners will say that's enough whereas more work needs done in this area.  Hope I'm wrong.

But I'm most worried about number of games and makeup/size of rosters.  We're headed towards an 18 game season, which I don't think is a bad thing.  But larger rosters are necessary.  But ST's are slowly being phased out - or I guess phased down is more accurate.  So a counter of 'instead of having ST specialists they are now your positional depth' seems inevitable.  Finding this balance is ultimately why I think a lockout is a near certainty.  It's just a matter of when it ends.

I'm sure there's more than just the above too.

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I feel like ever since the '94 baseball strike both labor and management across most sports* have realized an actual work stoppage is too dangerous for both sides. It's like the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction during the Cold War.

That said, the main cause of the '94 strike was that the players had been taking the owners to the cleaners for a generation, and the owners decided it was finally time for them to make a stand. Given that the NFLPA has similarly been getting pantsed for awhile now -- especially since 2011 -- there may be a point where they feel like they have to do the same thing. Problem for them is they are incredibly weak, both in comparison to other sports unions and especially compared to the NFL owners. So if they tried they'd probably end up getting totally humiliated. De Smith knows this, so I suspect he plays a little bit of brinkmanship and then tries to get as much as he can.

* Not surprisingly, NHL never saw that memo

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5 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

It's better now than it was a few years ago but the slashed money to rookies hasn't trickled to veterans like it was pitched.  I think they made the right moves to shift money away from rookies, but they went too far and unintentionally hurt veterans.  Why sign a similarly talented but more experienced 27 year old when I can just pick a fresher 22 year old for less money and more control?  Later round 1 and day 2 salary scales need bumped up.  I can't imagine this being a big deal and even just modest tweaks will be a boon to the players as tier 2 (and 3?) free agent vets won't be as susceptible to the squeeze.

The suspension and fine policies will also be big deals for the players.  I expect this to be messier.  Weed will be a concession, but I'm wary the owners will say that's enough whereas more work needs done in this area.  Hope I'm wrong.

But I'm most worried about number of games and makeup/size of rosters.  We're headed towards an 18 game season, which I don't think is a bad thing.  But larger rosters are necessary.  But ST's are slowly being phased out - or I guess phased down is more accurate.  So a counter of 'instead of having ST specialists they are now your positional depth' seems inevitable.  Finding this balance is ultimately why I think a lockout is a near certainty.  It's just a matter of when it ends.

I'm sure there's more than just the above too.

My dad used to always tell me, "You can have anything you want. You just can't have everything."

I suspect that's how the next round of negotiations will go for the players. They'll get some concessions on issues they care about, as long as it doesn't hurt the owners' bottom line. I expect the owners will be only too happy to revamp player discipline (the current system has caused the owners and Goodell nothing but headaches). And I agree that weed will be an easy concession.

But when it comes to the rookie wage scale, I don't see the owners budging. You're right that the current system has backfired on vets, but it has also allowed the owners to hold salaries down and made them a lot of money. Similarly, the franchise tag, which should absolutely be revamped, will likely survive in a form not that different from what it is now because owners love having so much leverage over their best players.

BTW, looking at those two issues I just mentioned, does it feel like the league ran circles around the NFLPA, which seemed to have no idea of the unintended consequences of various actions? I might have said Smith is too smart to get hoodwinked like that, especially compared to Gene Upshaw, but then I realized he had already been on the job for two years when the players negotiated the rookie wage scale in 2011. Maybe he was still figuring things out? Or maybe the players' position really is that weak.

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2 minutes ago, zftcg said:

My dad used to always tell me, "You can have anything you want. You just can't have everything."

I suspect that's how the next round of negotiations will go for the players. They'll get some concessions on issues they care about, as long as it doesn't hurt the owners' bottom line. I expect the owners will be only too happy to revamp player discipline (the current system has caused the owners and Goodell nothing but headaches). And I agree that weed will be an easy concession.

But when it comes to the rookie wage scale, I don't see the owners budging. You're right that the current system has backfired on vets, but it has also allowed the owners to hold salaries down and made them a lot of money. Similarly, the franchise tag, which should absolutely be revamped, will likely survive in a form not that different from what it is now because owners love having so much leverage over their best players.

BTW, looking at those two issues I just mentioned, does it feel like the league ran circles around the NFLPA, which seemed to have no idea of the unintended consequences of various actions? I might have said Smith is too smart to get hoodwinked like that, especially compared to Gene Upshaw, but then I realized he had already been on the job for two years when the players negotiated the rookie wage scale in 2011. Maybe he was still figuring things out? Or maybe the players' position really is that weak.

The owners raked the NFLPA over the coals in the last CBA.

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Of course.  After a few years of taking the abuse and mockery of everyone, the league is setting up for a work stoppage the 1st year after the Raiders establish their dominance in Vegas.  Everything is a conspiracy against the Raiders.  :tuckmy###:

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On 1/13/2019 at 8:35 AM, ShamrockPride said:

The year everyone said would only happen in fantasyland.....the year the surging NBA finally takes over as most watched sport. The NFL can't afford this to happen.

NBA Finals ratings are down about 50% from their 1998 peak. Approximately 18 million watched the Finals last year, down 10% from 2017. Average viewership for regular-season games was 1.28 million. 

Over 100 million watched the Super Bowl. NFL regular season games averaged 15.8M viewers.

Once NBA ratings quadruple, the NFL might have something to worry about.

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On 1/13/2019 at 9:27 AM, matuski said:

I watch both, and if anything basketball is trending at being better and better to watch.  They do a good job of keeping the game going.

The opposite for NFL. Advertisement, kickoff, penalty, advertisement, a drive, review a play for 5 minutes, punt, penalty, advertisement, drive, penalty, advertisement, score, advertisement, kick off, advertisement, drive, play review, drive, time out, advertisement, quarter, advertisement, injury, advertisement, .... 

Hard to sit through an entire live game.

I'll have a live game on, but spend more time watching the redzone... every time you look at the live game they aren't playing.  Getting worse every year it feels like.

DVR

Simply fast forward everything you aren't interested in.

 

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12 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

It's better now than it was a few years ago but the slashed money to rookies hasn't trickled to veterans like it was pitched.  I think they made the right moves to shift money away from rookies, but they went too far and unintentionally hurt veterans.  Why sign a similarly talented but more experienced 27 year old when I can just pick a fresher 22 year old for less money and more control?  Later round 1 and day 2 salary scales need bumped up.  I can't imagine this being a big deal and even just modest tweaks will be a boon to the players as tier 2 (and 3?) free agent vets won't be as susceptible to the squeeze.

The suspension and fine policies will also be big deals for the players.  I expect this to be messier.  Weed will be a concession, but I'm wary the owners will say that's enough whereas more work needs done in this area.  Hope I'm wrong.

But I'm most worried about number of games and makeup/size of rosters.  We're headed towards an 18 game season, which I don't think is a bad thing.  But larger rosters are necessary.  But ST's are slowly being phased out - or I guess phased down is more accurate.  So a counter of 'instead of having ST specialists they are now your positional depth' seems inevitable.  Finding this balance is ultimately why I think a lockout is a near certainty.  It's just a matter of when it ends.

I'm sure there's more than just the above too.

This is the right take. Veterans got screwed because they immediately became too expensive. I always wondered what would happen if players who had more years in the league, a certain percentage didn't count toward their cap.

For example, If you have been in the league for 8 years, only 80% of your guaranteed money counts toward the cap. So teams could exceed the cap by signing vets. Seems like a win for players as older players can earn more without being too expensive.

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The business has always been ran wrong.  You take the individual out of it.  You pay so much for a position and starter/second string. 

The way it's done now is ridiculous.

 

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9 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

This is the right take. Veterans got screwed because they immediately became too expensive. I always wondered what would happen if players who had more years in the league, a certain percentage didn't count toward their cap.

For example, If you have been in the league for 8 years, only 80% of your guaranteed money counts toward the cap. So teams could exceed the cap by signing vets. Seems like a win for players as older players can earn more without being too expensive.

I would also add that across all professional sports, younger players are increasingly better positioned to step in and perform shoulder to shoulder with those vets. The "green" rookie of today is not nearly as green as years ago.

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9 hours ago, CalBear said:

NBA Finals ratings are down about 50% from their 1998 peak. Approximately 18 million watched the Finals last year, down 10% from 2017. Average viewership for regular-season games was 1.28 million. 

Over 100 million watched the Super Bowl. NFL regular season games averaged 15.8M viewers.

Once NBA ratings quadruple, the NFL might have something to worry about.

I agree that, right now, the NFL has little to worry about. But there are definitely some storm clouds on the horizon, and one of those clouds is cultural engagement among younger fans. NBA (and to a lesser extent, soccer) have done a much better job of keeping themselves relevant for the next generation. NFL's old school image will eventually hurt the league.

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Other sports are only a threat to the NFL if the NFL makes it one.  Which they might.  The people running the show may be some of the richest in the world, but rich and smart are not mutually exclusive.  The NFL is the one sport that is actually relevant from the beginning of the season to the end.  Maybe not September so much, but if you're not hitting a groove by early October you're probably dead.  The other major sports lack that consistent engagement over the course of a whole season and given their current models I don't think there's anything they can do to change that anytime soon.

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23 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

It's better now than it was a few years ago but the slashed money to rookies hasn't trickled to veterans like it was pitched.  I think they made the right moves to shift money away from rookies, but they went too far and unintentionally hurt veterans.

It wasn't unintentional. The plan all along wasn't to shift money from rookies to vets - it was to shift money from rookies back to owners. And the NFLPA bought it.

Feature, not a bug.

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19 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

With Goodell at the helm, this will be handled and managed seamlessly.

He'll be skewered publicly, but he's just a puppet for the owners who are the ones that will really be behind any mismanagement.

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I love football, but I can't stand watching a single game by itself.  Redzone is a blessing (aside from the fact that they absolutely hated to play whatever game had most of my fantasy players last year) in that I wasn't stuck watching four minutes of commercials for every thirty seconds of game time.

That being said, can we just get rid of kickoffs already? Most dangerous play in the game and they only exist (currently) to cram in two more ad breaks.  Just start everyone off at the 25.

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44 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I love football, but I can't stand watching a single game by itself.  Redzone is a blessing (aside from the fact that they absolutely hated to play whatever game had most of my fantasy players last year) in that I wasn't stuck watching four minutes of commercials for every thirty seconds of game time.

That being said, can we just get rid of kickoffs already? Most dangerous play in the game and they only exist (currently) to cram in two more ad breaks.  Just start everyone off at the 25.

Take punts while you're at it.

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8 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Lmfao this players union has no resolve to strike...

No real reason either.

Unless they actually care about brain injuries and long term health of retirees.

I can see removing testing for MJ, but that's about it.

Edited by -OZ-

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On 1/13/2019 at 12:27 PM, matuski said:

I watch both, and if anything basketball is trending at being better and better to watch.  They do a good job of keeping the game going.

The opposite for NFL. Advertisement, kickoff, penalty, advertisement, a drive, review a play for 5 minutes, punt, penalty, advertisement, drive, penalty, advertisement, score, advertisement, kick off, advertisement, drive, play review, drive, time out, advertisement, quarter, advertisement, injury, advertisement, .... 

Hard to sit through an entire live game.

I'll have a live game on, but spend more time watching the redzone... every time you look at the live game they aren't playing.  Getting worse every year it feels like.

A little off topic, but how can soccer survive with commercials only during halftime; but our football, we spend like 40% of the game watching them? It's unreasonable.

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7 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

A little off topic, but how can soccer survive with commercials only during halftime; but our football, we spend like 40% of the game watching them? It's unreasonable.

US or international? 

The minimum annual salary for a rookie active roster player with a one-year contract is $480,000. That increases every year the player is in the league. 

53 players on the roster, of course many make above the minimum.

Average NFL salary is around $3 million.

So, over $150 million per team.

Soccer players in MLS average under $150,000. 

30 players on a soccer roster. 

So, roughly $4.5 million per team. 

Of course the NFL gets a #### ton more revenue, but a lot of that comes from advertisements. 

One way to change that would be for NFL jerseys to start looking like NASCAR. 

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9 hours ago, -OZ- said:

US or international? 

The minimum annual salary for a rookie active roster player with a one-year contract is $480,000. That increases every year the player is in the league. 

53 players on the roster, of course many make above the minimum.

Average NFL salary is around $3 million.

So, over $150 million per team.

Soccer players in MLS average under $150,000. 

30 players on a soccer roster. 

So, roughly $4.5 million per team. 

Of course the NFL gets a #### ton more revenue, but a lot of that comes from advertisements. 

One way to change that would be for NFL jerseys to start looking like NASCAR. 

European soccer teams pay higher salaries, still commercials only during halftime. They do have advertisements on the jerseys, which is preferable imo.

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The players are not holding the winning hand. More than ever it's a money grab for them. Losing a  year, look at Leveon Bell. Didn't work out to well.

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3 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

European soccer teams pay higher salaries, still commercials only during halftime. They do have advertisements on the jerseys, which is preferable imo.

I'm good with that. 

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7 hours ago, lod001 said:

The players are not holding the winning hand. More than ever it's a money grab for them. Losing a  year, look at Leveon Bell. Didn't work out to well.

It's interesting that you think that exploited workers fighting for what they deserve is a "money grab". 

The owners grab money all year long. 

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3 hours ago, CalBear said:

It's interesting that you think that exploited workers fighting for what they deserve is a "money grab". 

The owners grab money all year long. 

I can only hope my boss decides to “exploit” me the way the Steelers were exploiting Bell.

Sadly, I don’t think that’s in the cards...

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