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2021 Work Stoppage? Ruh oh... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Soulfly3
- Start date
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
The year everyone said would only happen in fantasyland.....the year the surging NBA finally takes over as most watched sport. The NFL can't afford this to happen.
irish eyes
Footballguy
Lol the NBA, really. Let's see watch grass grow or watch an NBA game? I'll go with watching grass grow. I'm amazed anyone can sit through more than 30 seconds of that garbage.
matuski
Footballguy
Honestly not sure how you make this argument with a straight face versus watching a football game.
irish eyes
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
I watch both, and if anything basketball is trending at being better and better to watch. They do a good job of keeping the game going.
The opposite for NFL. Advertisement, kickoff, penalty, advertisement, a drive, review a play for 5 minutes, punt, penalty, advertisement, drive, penalty, advertisement, score, advertisement, kick off, advertisement, drive, play review, drive, time out, advertisement, quarter, advertisement, injury, advertisement, ....
Hard to sit through an entire live game.
I'll have a live game on, but spend more time watching the redzone... every time you look at the live game they aren't playing. Getting worse every year it feels like.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
This.
With that said, the owners were resolute in improving the CBA in their favor in 2011. Pendulum swung significantly in the other direction.
Players shelf lives are too short to make a stand and the owners know this. The current players, who negotiate the deal, won’t be dying on the cross for the benefit of future NFLers currently in college high school or middle school. What will happen is an increase in the vet minimum, thereby helping the majority of players and a lowering of draft pick pay. Once again, why fight for guys not in the league yet??
End result: draft pick values go up as draft picks get paid less.
End result: draft pick values go up as draft picks get paid less.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Putting that in contracts is just smart risk mitigation. Who knows what it means. It should probably have been in all contracts forever whenever they were getting close to a CBA re-negotiation.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
this is from the year 2000: https://scholarship.law.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1483&context=sportslaw
starting on page 27, it discusses a wide range of terms in a variety of coaching contracts in the event of work stoppages.
starting on page 27, it discusses a wide range of terms in a variety of coaching contracts in the event of work stoppages.
Doug B
Footballguy
I guess anything can happen, but the parity issues in the NBA are a problem IMHO. Just make it a six-team league already.
Doug B
Footballguy
The product is actually good in the NBA (when teams aren't playing iso all the time). It's just that 20+ teams don't matter.
Doug B
Footballguy
Any way at all to get the players to buy in on having more rounds in the draft? I guess that really only benefits star players, though (makes it easier to construct a roster cheaply at 40 positions so that the top 4 or 5 guys can make bank).
-OZ-
Footballguy
College ball >>> NBA
ok, maybe it's personal preference but still you know I'm right
Part of the problem (for me anyway) is I stopped paying attention to the NBA when I left Detroit (bad boys forever!) And now don't want to get back into it when it's basically golden state and LeBron that matter.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
There aren't that many passes.NBA is unwatchable. pass, pass, shoot 3, repeat.
More like travel, travel, uncontested 3 pointer.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It would be ironic if the NFL folds right when the Browns actually get good.
MAC_32
Footballguy
It's better now than it was a few years ago but the slashed money to rookies hasn't trickled to veterans like it was pitched. I think they made the right moves to shift money away from rookies, but they went too far and unintentionally hurt veterans. Why sign a similarly talented but more experienced 27 year old when I can just pick a fresher 22 year old for less money and more control? Later round 1 and day 2 salary scales need bumped up. I can't imagine this being a big deal and even just modest tweaks will be a boon to the players as tier 2 (and 3?) free agent vets won't be as susceptible to the squeeze.
The suspension and fine policies will also be big deals for the players. I expect this to be messier. Weed will be a concession, but I'm wary the owners will say that's enough whereas more work needs done in this area. Hope I'm wrong.
But I'm most worried about number of games and makeup/size of rosters. We're headed towards an 18 game season, which I don't think is a bad thing. But larger rosters are necessary. But ST's are slowly being phased out - or I guess phased down is more accurate. So a counter of 'instead of having ST specialists they are now your positional depth' seems inevitable. Finding this balance is ultimately why I think a lockout is a near certainty. It's just a matter of when it ends.
I'm sure there's more than just the above too.
The suspension and fine policies will also be big deals for the players. I expect this to be messier. Weed will be a concession, but I'm wary the owners will say that's enough whereas more work needs done in this area. Hope I'm wrong.
But I'm most worried about number of games and makeup/size of rosters. We're headed towards an 18 game season, which I don't think is a bad thing. But larger rosters are necessary. But ST's are slowly being phased out - or I guess phased down is more accurate. So a counter of 'instead of having ST specialists they are now your positional depth' seems inevitable. Finding this balance is ultimately why I think a lockout is a near certainty. It's just a matter of when it ends.
I'm sure there's more than just the above too.
I feel like ever since the '94 baseball strike both labor and management across most sports* have realized an actual work stoppage is too dangerous for both sides. It's like the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction during the Cold War.
That said, the main cause of the '94 strike was that the players had been taking the owners to the cleaners for a generation, and the owners decided it was finally time for them to make a stand. Given that the NFLPA has similarly been getting pantsed for awhile now -- especially since 2011 -- there may be a point where they feel like they have to do the same thing. Problem for them is they are incredibly weak, both in comparison to other sports unions and especially compared to the NFL owners. So if they tried they'd probably end up getting totally humiliated. De Smith knows this, so I suspect he plays a little bit of brinkmanship and then tries to get as much as he can.
* Not surprisingly, NHL never saw that memo
That said, the main cause of the '94 strike was that the players had been taking the owners to the cleaners for a generation, and the owners decided it was finally time for them to make a stand. Given that the NFLPA has similarly been getting pantsed for awhile now -- especially since 2011 -- there may be a point where they feel like they have to do the same thing. Problem for them is they are incredibly weak, both in comparison to other sports unions and especially compared to the NFL owners. So if they tried they'd probably end up getting totally humiliated. De Smith knows this, so I suspect he plays a little bit of brinkmanship and then tries to get as much as he can.
* Not surprisingly, NHL never saw that memo
My dad used to always tell me, "You can have anything you want. You just can't have everything."
I suspect that's how the next round of negotiations will go for the players. They'll get some concessions on issues they care about, as long as it doesn't hurt the owners' bottom line. I expect the owners will be only too happy to revamp player discipline (the current system has caused the owners and Goodell nothing but headaches). And I agree that weed will be an easy concession.
But when it comes to the rookie wage scale, I don't see the owners budging. You're right that the current system has backfired on vets, but it has also allowed the owners to hold salaries down and made them a lot of money. Similarly, the franchise tag, which should absolutely be revamped, will likely survive in a form not that different from what it is now because owners love having so much leverage over their best players.
BTW, looking at those two issues I just mentioned, does it feel like the league ran circles around the NFLPA, which seemed to have no idea of the unintended consequences of various actions? I might have said Smith is too smart to get hoodwinked like that, especially compared to Gene Upshaw, but then I realized he had already been on the job for two years when the players negotiated the rookie wage scale in 2011. Maybe he was still figuring things out? Or maybe the players' position really is that weak.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Silver & Black
Footballguy
Of course. After a few years of taking the abuse and mockery of everyone, the league is setting up for a work stoppage the 1st year after the Raiders establish their dominance in Vegas. Everything is a conspiracy against the Raiders. :tuckmy###:
CalBear
Footballguy
NBA Finals ratings are down about 50% from their 1998 peak. Approximately 18 million watched the Finals last year, down 10% from 2017. Average viewership for regular-season games was 1.28 million.
Over 100 million watched the Super Bowl. NFL regular season games averaged 15.8M viewers.
Once NBA ratings quadruple, the NFL might have something to worry about.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
This is the right take. Veterans got screwed because they immediately became too expensive. I always wondered what would happen if players who had more years in the league, a certain percentage didn't count toward their cap.
For example, If you have been in the league for 8 years, only 80% of your guaranteed money counts toward the cap. So teams could exceed the cap by signing vets. Seems like a win for players as older players can earn more without being too expensive.
habsfan
Footballguy
I would also add that across all professional sports, younger players are increasingly better positioned to step in and perform shoulder to shoulder with those vets. The "green" rookie of today is not nearly as green as years ago.
I agree that, right now, the NFL has little to worry about. But there are definitely some storm clouds on the horizon, and one of those clouds is cultural engagement among younger fans. NBA (and to a lesser extent, soccer) have done a much better job of keeping themselves relevant for the next generation. NFL's old school image will eventually hurt the league.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Other sports are only a threat to the NFL if the NFL makes it one. Which they might. The people running the show may be some of the richest in the world, but rich and smart are not mutually exclusive. The NFL is the one sport that is actually relevant from the beginning of the season to the end. Maybe not September so much, but if you're not hitting a groove by early October you're probably dead. The other major sports lack that consistent engagement over the course of a whole season and given their current models I don't think there's anything they can do to change that anytime soon.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
It wasn't unintentional. The plan all along wasn't to shift money from rookies to vets - it was to shift money from rookies back to owners. And the NFLPA bought it.
Feature, not a bug.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
With Goodell at the helm, this will be handled and managed seamlessly.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He'll be skewered publicly, but he's just a puppet for the owners who are the ones that will really be behind any mismanagement.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I love football, but I can't stand watching a single game by itself. Redzone is a blessing (aside from the fact that they absolutely hated to play whatever game had most of my fantasy players last year) in that I wasn't stuck watching four minutes of commercials for every thirty seconds of game time.
That being said, can we just get rid of kickoffs already? Most dangerous play in the game and they only exist (currently) to cram in two more ad breaks. Just start everyone off at the 25.
That being said, can we just get rid of kickoffs already? Most dangerous play in the game and they only exist (currently) to cram in two more ad breaks. Just start everyone off at the 25.
-OZ-
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
-OZ-
Footballguy
No real reason either.
Unless they actually care about brain injuries and long term health of retirees.
I can see removing testing for MJ, but that's about it.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
A little off topic, but how can soccer survive with commercials only during halftime; but our football, we spend like 40% of the game watching them? It's unreasonable.
-OZ-
Footballguy
US or international?
The minimum annual salary for a rookie active roster player with a one-year contract is $480,000. That increases every year the player is in the league.
53 players on the roster, of course many make above the minimum.
Average NFL salary is around $3 million.
So, over $150 million per team.
Soccer players in MLS average under $150,000.
30 players on a soccer roster.
So, roughly $4.5 million per team.
Of course the NFL gets a #### ton more revenue, but a lot of that comes from advertisements.
One way to change that would be for NFL jerseys to start looking like NASCAR.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
European soccer teams pay higher salaries, still commercials only during halftime. They do have advertisements on the jerseys, which is preferable imo.-OZ- said:
-OZ-
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
It's interesting that you think that exploited workers fighting for what they deserve is a "money grab".
The owners grab money all year long.
I can only hope my boss decides to “exploit” me the way the Steelers were exploiting Bell.
Sadly, I don’t think that’s in the cards...
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