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cloppbeast

Parris Campbell WR Colts

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Hit% + Miss% = 100%

This equation is quite literally true. So yes, they are inversely related. Some algebra work reveals that Miss% = 1 - Hit%

No. you dont understand scientific research or statistics. this isnt grade school math as you have referenced. if a study shows something is great at ruling something out, it doesnt mean the reverse is good at ruling something in. you are 100% incorrect in your thinking on this and I would encourage you to read up the difference between sensitivity and specificity. The method I referenced has a high sensitivity- it rules people out. 

MRIs are a great example: If something shows up on an MRI you have a 96ish% chance of having that problem. However, if your MRI comes back normal you have about a 25% chance of having no structural problems

I've explained this enough if you dont get it by now you never will, but I would encourage you to read up on those differences. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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13 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

No. you dont understand scientific research or statistics. this isnt grade school math as you have referenced. if a study shows something is great at ruling something out, it doesnt mean the reverse is good at ruling something in. you are 100% incorrect in your thinking on this and I would encourage you to read up the difference between sensitivity and specificity. The method I referenced has a high sensitivity- it rules people out. 

MRIs are a great example: If something shows up on an MRI you have a 96ish% chance of having that problem. However, if your MRI comes back normal you have about a 25% chance of having no structural problems

I've explained this enough if you dont get it by now you never will, but I would encourage you to read up on those differences. 

Just read your miss thread. Thanks for doing that. Helps a lot!!! I understand what you're saying and what you're not in that thread/with those requirements. 

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58 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

No. you dont understand scientific research or statistics. this isnt grade school math as you have referenced. if a study shows something is great at ruling something out, it doesnt mean the reverse is good at ruling something in. you are 100% incorrect in your thinking on this and I would encourage you to read up the difference between sensitivity and specificity. The method I referenced has a high sensitivity- it rules people out. 

MRIs are a great example: If something shows up on an MRI you have a 96ish% chance of having that problem. However, if your MRI comes back normal you have about a 25% chance of having no structural problems

I've explained this enough if you dont get it by now you never will, but I would encourage you to read up on those differences. 

So your little scientific study, so you say it has high sensitivity. Specifically what is the value of its sensitivity?

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7 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

So your little scientific study, so you say it has high sensitivity. Specifically what is the value of its sensitivity?

Sensitivity rules out. So it shows who is most likely to not be a fantasy wr1 or even wr2. 

You can read the thread for the exact numbers yourself, but as I said it is like skimming off those who are most likely to miss, limiting the pool you are choosing from. 

It increases the chances of you selecting a hit by eliminating likely misses. 

I'm done explaining... it's all in the other thread. if you dont understand, that's fine, but that's your issue then. I get that some people here are invested in Campbell and they dont want to read things other than positive posts about how great hes going to be. Its not a good bet to make based on wr1s and wr2s over the last 10 years. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sensitivity rules out. So it shows who is most likely to not be a fantasy wr1 or even wr2. 

You can read the thread for the exact numbers yourself

You were the one who said your highly scientific study has high sensitivity; so I ask you what is the value of its sensitivity, you tell me to go figure it out myself and your done talking. 

That's funny. I dont care who you are, that's funny.

Edited by cloppbeast

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I don't know that anyone is saying Campbell is a lock for stardom. BUT, he was drafted early, Andrew Luck is his QB, Hilton is of the age where most (not all) WRs start slowing down, and Funchess has hands of stone. So there is a LOT to like about this situation. 

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Courtland Sutton among young receivers set to break out in 2019

Excerpt:

Quote

Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts

Playing my entire 14-year NFL career in Indianapolis, I am more than familiar with the organization and know what is expected. Campbell didn't waste any time making an impression, as several coaches recently told me they were happy with the rookie in OTAs. The speedster will man the slot for the Colts' offense this fall and serve as a great complement to T.Y. Hilton and free-agent addition Devin Funchess. At Ohio State, Campbell impressively gained 809 of his 1,063 receiving yards after the catch in 2018 (second-most in the FBS), according to Pro Football Focus. With the veterans attracting most of the attention, the second-round pick should get ample opportunity to showcase that speed.

 

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2019 Fantasy Football: Rookie wide receiver breakdown with Parris Campbell and N'keal Harry out front

Excerpt:

Quote

PARRIS CAMPBELL, WR, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

5-11 7/8, 205, 22 years old 

Campbell is a good talent who landed in an amazing situation: Catching passes from Andrew Luck in the Colts' exciting and creative offense. Not bad for a receiver with very good speed and an 82 percent catch rate in college. A smooth and diverse route runner, Campbell specialized in the slot at Ohio State and worked in the short-area as a chain mover. If used similarly with the Colts, he'll be an instant hit as a middle-of-the-field target for Luck, particularly one who will never have to worry about coverage zoned in on him thanks to T.Y. Hilton. But there's also room for him to develop into a better all-around receiver, including a deep-ball threat. That kind of potential is sweet for Fantasy fans to think about, making Campbell a reliable high-volume wideout for years to come.  


2019 DRAFT OUTLOOK: Around 80th overall in PPR leagues; between 90th and 100th overall in non-PPR leagues. 

ROOKIE-ONLY DRAFT OUTLOOK: The safest rookie receiver out there — good enough for a top-five pick, but likely to go in the back half of Round 1.

 

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19 minutes ago, Faust said:

Excerpt: ROOKIE-ONLY DRAFT OUTLOOK: The safest rookie receiver out there — good enough for a top-five pick, but likely to go in the back half of Round 1.

 

And exactly where I drafted him in 1.8-1.11 range and couldn't be happier :)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

You were the one who said your highly scientific study has high sensitivity; so I ask you what is the value of its sensitivity, you tell me to go figure it out myself and your done talking. 

That's funny. I dont care who you are, that's funny.

I never said it was highly scientific. I was trying to explain it to you when your math reasoning was at the grade school level. I am sorry you still cant comprehend this idea and I wish you luck in this upcoming season

 

FTR: sensitivity for fantasy wr1

BA age >50%tile and DR >25%= 91.3% specificity

BA age >50%title and DR >30% = 79% specificity

sensitivity for top 24:

62% at 50%BA and 25% DR

70% at 50%BA and  30% DR

All based on the last 10 years. 

Campbell misses on both: 34th%title BA and 23.5%DR

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Colts coach Frank Reich has been impressed with rookie WR Parris Campbell.

Campbell, known for his YAC ability on underneath routes, has played bigger than his 6-foot, 205-pound frame would suggest. Reich said, "What he did in the red zone weren’t hybrid, gadget, slot receiver type plays. They were legit, NFL, I’m going to be a stud receiver plays." Training camp buzz has all been positive for the No. 59 overall pick, who remains "in the mix" for WR3 duties behind T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess. Campbell should struggle for targets, but he's definitely a player worth monitoring.

SOURCE: Mike Wells on Twitter

Jul 28, 2019, 5:11 PM ET

 

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Funchess was carted off, but was able to walk off the cart under his own power. 

It's probably nothing, but something to watch for.  If Funchess winds up missing time, Campbell becomes much more interesting.

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

Funchess was carted off, but was able to walk off the cart under his own power. 

It's probably nothing, but something to watch for.  If Funchess winds up missing time, Campbell becomes much more interesting.

Funchess will lose snaps to Campbell sooner than later. Luck won't enjoy Funchess' stone hands. 

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2 hours ago, jm192 said:

Funchess was carted off, but was able to walk off the cart under his own power. 

It's probably nothing, but something to watch for.  If Funchess winds up missing time, Campbell becomes much more interesting.

Even if he's healthy, Campbell is going to be pushing him off the field anyway.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

Funchess will lose snaps to Campbell sooner than later. Luck won't enjoy Funchess' stone hands. 

he enjoys ebrons....sometimes the qb makes the player better regardless of their  wart1s

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12 hours ago, Bakers Act said:

Funchess is a speed bump about the size of a pinhead on Campbells road to the starting gig and future #1.

According to the one guy in the comment right above yours, Campbell still has to pass that Chester fellow.

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On ‎6‎/‎26‎/‎2019 at 5:25 PM, cloppbeast said:

You were the one who said your highly scientific study has high sensitivity; so I ask you what is the value of its sensitivity, you tell me to go figure it out myself and your done talking. 

That's funny. I dont care who you are, that's funny.

The value is that if a player doesn't meet those two criteria they are more likely to never reach the levels of WR1/WR2.  It does not mean it cannot happen.  It just means it likely won't happen.  Its additional information that you can use to form your opinions.  It is not absolute and I don't think it was ever stated that it was absolute. 

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My excitement for him has increased quite a bit.  If he starts right away, how much does he move up in rookie rankings?

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4 minutes ago, jm192 said:

My excitement for him has increased quite a bit.  If he starts right away, how much does he move up in rookie rankings?

He could reasonably be the top WR in the class if the drumbeat keeps rolling through training camp.

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Parris Campbell has missed the last three days of practice with a hamstring injury.

Campbell tore it up in Sunday's practice this past weekend, drawing rave reviews from coach Frank Reich and every media member who was in attendance, but that's the day he was injured. Campbell has looked good when he's been out there, but word is Chester Rogers has still been holding onto the No. 3 job behind T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess.

SOURCE: George Bremer on Twitter

Jul 31, 2019, 9:45 AM ET

 

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Indianapolis Colts ruled rookie WR Parris Campbell inactive for the preseason opener.

Campbell has missed training camp practices with a hamstring injury, but he was showing well earlier this offseason. It would be nice to see Campbell suit up for multiple preseason games since he's competing with veterans for the No. 3 job behind T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess. The full inactives list can be found in the link below.

SOURCE: Colts on Twitter

Aug 8, 2019, 5:40 PM ET

 

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Updating an earlier report, Parris Campbell suffered a setback to his injured hamstring on Sunday.

Campbell was on the cusp of returning from a two-week absence but apparently "felt something" Sunday, prompting Indy to pump the brakes on his comeback efforts. The Colts see it as only a minor inconvenience, though even if the rookie makes it back before the regular season starts, it's hard to see him making an early impact after missing so much time.

SOURCE: Joel Erickson on Twitter

Aug 12, 2019, 11:03 AM ET

 

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I don’t condone injuries but I’m hopeful this allows him to fall to me.

Tex

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Where's his dynasty value at now?   Playing in one of the pass heaviest offenses with one of the best QB's--I thought he had future fantasy star written allover him.  Now he's got to get healthy and ascend the depth chart just to catch passes from Brisett.  And I know a lot of people are saying Brisett will be better than he was last go round.  I'm sure he will.  But Indy was an elite landing spot for a WR because of Luck.  

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Where's his dynasty value at now?   Playing in one of the pass heaviest offenses with one of the best QB's--I thought he had future fantasy star written allover him.  Now he's got to get healthy and ascend the depth chart just to catch passes from Brisett.  And I know a lot of people are saying Brisett will be better than he was last go round.  I'm sure he will.  But Indy was an elite landing spot for a WR because of Luck.  

Toilet until / if they can find a decent QB.  Brissett isn’t it.  Maybe Chad Kelly is.

Edited by JohnnyU

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You have to downgrade him a bit. How much? Hmmmm it's tough to say. He's not going to be an elite QB #1WR in a couple years now though........

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Toilet until / if they can find a decent QB.  Brissett isn’t it.  Maybe Chad Kelly is.

I dunno, he's actually a check-down artist's best friend.  Biggest concern was that a Luck-driven offense might demand things out of him he can't deliver, and those concerns are gone now.  There will be a lot more urgency to just move the chains and make plays any way possible.

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I dropped him...they have gone from 4500 yards to sperad around to maybe 3000.  That's a massive drop and he's going to be on the losing end of that.

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1 hour ago, killface said:

I dropped him...they have gone from 4500 yards to sperad around to maybe 3000.  That's a massive drop and he's going to be on the losing end of that.

Did the same thing, and had possible late RD Keeper rights ... decided to roll the dice on other young WRs in better situations.

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2 hours ago, killface said:

I dropped him...they have gone from 4500 yards to sperad around to maybe 3000.  That's a massive drop and he's going to be on the losing end of that.

I'm assuming your league is a redraft league and not dynasty?

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19 hours ago, jm192 said:

Where's his dynasty value at now?   Playing in one of the pass heaviest offenses with one of the best QB's--I thought he had future fantasy star written allover him.  Now he's got to get healthy and ascend the depth chart just to catch passes from Brisett.  And I know a lot of people are saying Brisett will be better than he was last go round.  I'm sure he will.  But Indy was an elite landing spot for a WR because of Luck.  

I just grabbed him at 2.04 in a PPR rookie draft.  A couple whacky picks but he was going 1.07/1.08 in my others before the Luck news.

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Parris Campbell (hamstring) returned to Colts practice on Monday.

This isn't the news it would have been before Andrew Luck's retirement, but it is still a much-needed development for the Colts. The No. 59 overall pick has missed essentially all of training camp. That, coupled with the Colts' quarterback downgrade to Jacoby Brissett makes it highly unlikely that Campbell will make an early-season re-draft impact out of the slot, but he is still a movable chess piece for creative coach Frank Reich.

SOURCE: Mike Chappell on Twitter

Aug 26, 2019, 1:46 PM ET

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I'm assuming your league is a redraft league and not dynasty?

It's dynasty but i figure he will still be relatively unknown going into next year so he could probably still be had pretty cheap.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, killface said:

It's dynasty but i figure he will still be relatively unknown going into next year so he could probably still be had pretty cheap.

Unless your dynasty roster size is < 22, there is no way I would drop him right now.

 

 

Edited by JohnnyU

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47 minutes ago, killface said:

It's dynasty but i figure he will still be relatively unknown going into next year so he could probably still be had pretty cheap.

If anyone drops him in my dynasties I will add him so fast.

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This specifically (people drafting Campbell in the mid/late 1st in rookie drafts) or generally speaking (that situations in the NFL can change insanely quickly)?  

If the latter, I agree.  If the former, I’m not sure Campbell was getting drafted over players whom were/are any different from him from a talent, pedigree, and draft capital perspective was he?  I’m sure he was elevated a few spots because Luck was his QB.  But I think you’re getting terrible odds if you DON’T at all factor into the equation of Campbell’s worth that Luck was projected to be his QB for the next 8-10 years.  

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3 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

This specifically (people drafting Campbell in the mid/late 1st in rookie drafts) or generally speaking (that situations in the NFL can change insanely quickly)?  

If the latter, I agree.  If the former, I’m not sure Campbell was getting drafted over players whom were/are any different from him from a talent, pedigree, and draft capital perspective was he?  I’m sure he was elevated a few spots because Luck was his QB.  But I think you’re getting terrible odds if you DON’T at all factor into the equation of Campbell’s worth that Luck was projected to be his QB for the next 8-10 years.  

Specifically - while Campbell is a good player who was drafted pretty high by the Colts he wasn't a player I had in the top tier of WR prospects. Perhaps other people did. So if they did then they were drafting the player not the situation.

At least from my perspective better players were being passed for Campbell and the only reason I could see for that is because of Luck.

Generally things do change faster than we anticipate they will. Your last comment about Campbell being with Luck for 8+ years assumes too much. I do not place any value on any player for seasons beyond 3 from today. Too much changes in my view over that time period.

I agree that we have to factor in situation. Just saying that this is a good example of how doing so can go wrong.

Maybe Campbell is great though and has a fantastic career without Luck anyways. I am guessing a lot of folks would like to make this choice over with the new information.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

This is a good example of why you draft the player and not the situation.

Eh.  This draft isn’t high on elite talent.

Campbell was similar to several other WR’s and in an elite situation.  

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Maybe I'm a biased Campbell owner but I don't think this hurts him all that much, even in the short term. Sure, you'd rather have Andrew Luck throwing you the ball, but one of the appealing things about Campbell to me was that he looked like a guy who didn't necessarily need to be tied to a great QB to be productive because he had the potential to thrive in a short passing game and make plays with his YAC ability and speed, rather than nuanced route running or timing throws. As long as they find ways to get him the ball, I think he'll be fine. The overall downgrade of the offense without Luck certainly can't be dismissed outright though. 

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8 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Maybe I'm a biased Campbell owner but I don't think this hurts him all that much, even in the short term. Sure, you'd rather have Andrew Luck throwing you the ball, but one of the appealing things about Campbell to me was that he looked like a guy who didn't necessarily need to be tied to a great QB to be productive because he had the potential to thrive in a short passing game and make plays with his YAC ability and speed, rather than nuanced route running or timing throws. As long as they find ways to get him the ball, I think he'll be fine. The overall downgrade of the offense without Luck certainly can't be dismissed outright though. 

2017 TY Hilton begs to differ. unless you're saying Campbell is better than TY Hilton

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I took him at 2.10 in a rookie draft on Sunday.  8th WR off the board, PPR, 20 man rosters.  Hard to say how much further he might have fallen.  I didn't have a 3rd and didn't want to trade down.

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Just now, Kleck said:

I took him at 2.10 in a rookie draft on Sunday.  8th WR off the board, PPR, 20 man rosters.  Hard to say how much further he might have fallen.  I didn't have a 3rd and didn't want to trade down.

This seems insanely reactive to me.

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10 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Maybe I'm a biased Campbell owner but I don't think this hurts him all that much, even in the short term. Sure, you'd rather have Andrew Luck throwing you the ball, but one of the appealing things about Campbell to me was that he looked like a guy who didn't necessarily need to be tied to a great QB to be productive because he had the potential to thrive in a short passing game and make plays with his YAC ability and speed, rather than nuanced route running or timing throws. As long as they find ways to get him the ball, I think he'll be fine. The overall downgrade of the offense without Luck certainly can't be dismissed outright though. 

I don’t think he becomes trash, but I do think it’s a major hit. Playing on a team that throws that much with one of the best QB’s in the league was one of the best situations to fall into.  

I’d be really high on most wr’s drafted in the 1st 2 rounds going to a Luck led Colts

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