I didn’t double count anything. Which actually is rather amusing and ironic that the balance of your post is framed around extrapolating a 1600/27 season based on his 3 starts last year.
I can simultaneously hold the view that (a) he’s a JAG, (b) he can be a RB10 this year, and (c) he can drift back into mediocrity or even irrelevance a year later. Historically, that’s not uncommon at all.
That's a reasonable view and i'm not disagreeing with you because you hold it.
Holding that vote you said he might be worth an early second instead of a laye one.
What i'm saying is that we can account for the difference between your "early second"valuation and others' late first or 2020 first valuation by looking at how you've capped his upside at rb10, and for no more than 1 year.
Sometimes we're all wrong. You may be completely right in all of your skepticism or i may be right in my optimism. But knowing that that uncertainty exists, i think the right way to value him is to define the risk and reward, and if the reward includes "he puts up rb1 numbers", then it also clearly includes "he puts up rb1 numbers and earns another year as starter".
As for the other stuff - i am not extrapolating his numbers to this year as a projection. I'm setting his upper bound. I don't think he'll do better than that, and i don't expect him to do that again, but we know it's possible.
It was also not 3 starts. He played in 6 games, 5 starts. 5 of the 6 games were against playoff teams in must win games, and his worst game was the one against Oakland. Mu biggest concern with "fresh legs theory" isn't that the back has fresh legs and the defense is tired. That's relatively minor. I'm usually much more concerned about the guy who sucks all year, then gets hot at the end playing teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs.
Look at derrick henry getting 270 yards and 4 tds against Jacksonville last year. He had a great game but that 99 yard run isn't something you should expect every year. I love henry, but you can't extrapolate from that game.
Williams had "fresh legs", but picking up two 4th and 1s in a playoff game is much more interesting to me because it shows that they trusted him to run it and he earned another opportunity. He blew up in the second half against the Patriots when they needed every point he got to take a conference championship game to overtime. That's no fluke. The patriots d was red hot.
I get that we see it differently, but i'm not suggesting that my way is the only way to see it. I'm just suggesting that your way may not be the only way.